Britain could join NAFTA if Brexit trade deal fails - Telegraph newspaper

[webfact]

Britain could join NAFTA if Brexit trade deal fails - Telegraph newspaper

 

FILE PHOTO - An umbrella with EU and British flags attached to it is held ahead of a speech by Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May in Florence, Italy September 22, 2017. REUTERS/Max Rossi

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain could join a formal trade alliance with the United States, Canada and Mexico if the European Union refuses to clinch a post-Brexit trade deal, the Daily Telegraph newspaper reported on Tuesday.

 

The newspaper said British ministers were looking at joining the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as part of planning for the possibility of Britain leaving the EU in March 2019 without a trade deal. It gave no sources for the report.

 

"As we prepare to leave the EU, we will seek to transition all existing EU trade arrangements to ensure that the UK maintains the greatest amount of certainty, continuity and stability in our trade and investment relationships," a spokesman for the Department for International Trade said.

 

When asked for comment on The Telegraph report, the spokesman said: "We are confident that we will find a deal that works for Britain and Europe too. But it is our responsibility as a government to prepare for every eventuality, and that is what we are doing."

 

Britain is currently negotiating the terms of its divorce from the EU though Prime Minister Theresa May is pushing to move onto discussions about a major free trade deal with the world's biggest trading bloc.

 

With the clock ticking down towards Brexit day in 2019, British ministers are exploring the options if the world's fifth largest economy drops out of the EU without a clear trade deal.

 

Besides aiming to clinch a U.S. trade deal or forming some new trade grouping, some British supporters of Brexit have pondered joining an existing trade alliance such as NAFTA.

 

But U.S. President Donald Trump has warned he may terminate the 1994 NAFTA deal because he says it does not serve U.S. economic interests.

 

If Britain did join NAFTA, manufacturers wanting to export to the EU and North America would have to produce goods in accordance with the two separate sets of rules, according to trade analysts.

 

Britain, whose regulation has been within the EU's orbit for over 40 years, would also have to shift towards the North American model for services, goods, competition policy and data protection.

 

The EU is Britain's biggest single export market, accounting for about 50 percent of goods exports in August. The United States was the single biggest destination for British exports, accounting for 14 percent in August.

 

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Stephen Addison, Andy Bruce and Richard Balmforth)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-10-11

[Samui Bodoh]

4 minutes ago, webfact said:

Britain could join NAFTA if Brexit trade deal fails - Telegraph newspaper

 

It is a very big assumption that all the NAFTA countries actually want the UK to join. 

 

To put it succinctly, what does the UK have to offer? 

 

[canuckamuck]

Interesting news for Canada. But does Britain make anything good to buy, other than wine gums?

[terryw]

If this does happen then the Irish will have to decide between the EU or NAFTA.

[chezy86]

Your right Britain doesn’t make anything. Doesn’t take much to work out they will be buying from countries like Canada and USA does it which is good for those countries I would have thought.

[mfd101]

More for the Yanks to gain than the Brits, I should think. But desperation can make strange bedfellows ...

[chezy86]

More for the Yanks to gain than the Brits, I should think. But desperation can make strange bedfellows ...

Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and imports vastly more than it exports. Any country that can not see the potential here is blind. The EU is bent on punishing Britain for leaving, then they just walk away and trade with someone else. No more German/French/Italian/Spanish cars into Britain would result in redundancies in the EU for starters. Maybe an opportunity for Thailand’s Car industry to Muscle in who knows.But one thing is sure Britain will survive it has done for hundreds of years before the EU and will be in a better position when the EU eventually implodes.


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[MisterTee]

Out of the EU and into NAFTA.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

[Shaunduhpostman]

^^ Was going to post exactly the same comment.

[kamahele]

The same NAFTA that Trump teases of cancelling? That NAFTA?

[kamahele]

40 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

More for the Yanks to gain than the Brits, I should think. But desperation can make strange bedfellows ...

As a "Yank", I would welcome the UK as it benefits the UK, US, Mexico and Canada, however it isn't as easy as them just joining. There could be years of negotiations.

[korkenzieher]

51'st state anybody...?

[MisterTee]

9 minutes ago, korkenzieher said:

51'st state anybody...?

I doubt if statehood is on the agenda.

They've been more like our colony since WWII.

That relationship will probably continue in one form or another.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, chezy86 said:

Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and imports vastly more than it exports. Any country that can not see the potential here is blind. The EU is bent on punishing Britain for leaving, then they just walk away and trade with someone else. No more German/French/Italian/Spanish cars into Britain would result in redundancies in the EU for starters. Maybe an opportunity for Thailand’s Car industry to Muscle in who knows.But one thing is sure Britain will survive it has done for hundreds of years before the EU and will be in a better position when the EU eventually implodes.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

This is a good post. And no one thinks the UK will disappear any time soon.

 

However, it isn't that simple. As another poster pointed out, there are (literally) years of required negotiations and boat loads of specific issues that would need to be discussed/negotiated. There are valid questions for Mexico, the US and Canada to ponder if they want to go down that path; as the old saying goes "the devil is in the details". For example, although the UK is the world's fifth largest economy (good thing in a trade partner), does it make economic sense to allow it to join in terms of agriculture? Electronics? Manufacturing? Banking? Energy production? Insurance? Etc.

 

Secondly, if the UK were to join NAFTA, it would lead to economic adjustments on the part of all parties. And that leads to a very blunt question; if allowed to join, would the UK stay in for the long term? The UK has recently demonstrated that it might not be in any agreement for the long-haul. Fair enough, that is the UK's decision, but for the other countries, it is a factor to be considered.

 

Is the UK a reliable partner?

 

 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[alant]

3 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Interesting news for Canada. But does Britain make anything good to buy, other than wine gums?

Wine gums, is that the limit of your experience? Let me suggest you get yourself some pomfret cakes whilst if you expect your cakes to have some form of baking  included Eccles cakes are a must.

Please report back on your experiences...

[pegman]

1 hour ago, MisterTee said:

I doubt if statehood is on the agenda.

They've been more like our colony since WWII.

That relationship will probably continue in one form or another.

More like lapdog than colony. Better the UK, or whatever is left to it, takes Canada's spot. We had a long, painfull transition to adopt to NAFTA now this joker comes along and wants to rip it up. I saw a national survey tonight that stated 80% of Canadians disapprove of Trump. Time for us to seek better trade partners. 

[Krataiboy]

Having escaped (thanks to the foresightedness of a majority of our EU partners) the frying pan of TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), will we end up in the fire by joining a revamped NAFTA?

 

The latest "free trade" deal has some worrying drawbacks, according a to London School of Economics report.

 

"The onus would be on the UK to comply with existing NAFTA regulations, and this could mean that manufacturers had to produce two different versions of the same product if they wanted to export to the EU and North America. Membership would also expose British farming and manufacturing to cheaper US and Mexican imports. Lastly, belonging to NAFTA might reduce the chances of a good free trade agreement with the EU". 

 

And that's just for starters. 

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/29/could-the-uk-join-nafta-there-are-considerable-downsides/

Edited October 11, 2017 by Krataiboy

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, MisterTee said:

I doubt if statehood is on the agenda.

They've been more like our colony since WWII.

That relationship will probably continue in one form or another.

Maybe the same deal that Puerto Rico or Guam has ?

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Having escaped (thanks to the foresightedness of a majority of our EU partners) the frying pan of TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), will we end up in the fire by joining a revamped NAFTA?

 

The latest "free trade" deal has some worrying drawbacks, according a to London School of Economics report.

 

"The onus would be on the UK to comply with existing NAFTA regulations, and this could mean that manufacturers had to produce two different versions of the same product if they wanted to export to the EU and North America. Membership would also expose British farming and manufacturing to cheaper US and Mexican imports. Lastly, belonging to NAFTA might reduce the chances of a good free trade agreement with the EU". 

 

And that's just for starters. 

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/29/could-the-uk-join-nafta-there-are-considerable-downsides/

Don't underestimate the value of tariff free tortillas!

[sungod]

6 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Interesting news for Canada. But does Britain make anything good to buy, other than wine gums?

Good to see we are famous for something, I actually had to search for what Canada produces, number one is other countries cars!

[canuckamuck]

11 minutes ago, sungod said:

Good to see we are famous for something, I actually had to search for what Canada produces, number one is other countries cars!

We grow the best pot, what else matters?

[Samui Bodoh]

2 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Having escaped (thanks to the foresightedness of a majority of our EU partners) the frying pan of TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), will we end up in the fire by joining a revamped NAFTA?

 

The latest "free trade" deal has some worrying drawbacks, according a to London School of Economics report.

 

"The onus would be on the UK to comply with existing NAFTA regulations, and this could mean that manufacturers had to produce two different versions of the same product if they wanted to export to the EU and North America. Membership would also expose British farming and manufacturing to cheaper US and Mexican imports. Lastly, belonging to NAFTA might reduce the chances of a good free trade agreement with the EU". 

 

And that's just for starters. 

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/29/could-the-uk-join-nafta-there-are-considerable-downsides/

 

That is an interesting post/ blog posting, and I would agree that it would only be for starters. 

 

However, it seems that you are working on the assumption that the UK would be welcomed into NAFTA, and that would be a very open question.

 

One of the key questions in any potential negotiations between NAFTA countries and the UK would be what kind of access to the EU markets would the UK retain? Respectfully, the value of the UK as a trading partner would be highly reliant on the access to the EU market that it retains; a country of 65 million or so is one thing, access to the hundreds of million EU people through the UK is another. I suspect that any trade deal would have to wait until the UK/EU situation is sorted, so we are looking at a few years in the future minimum.

 

Another would be what could the UK offer specifically to Canada? Canada recently completed a free-trade deal with the EU. Does it actually need the UK for access to the EU anymore (not sure)? And Canada would have to agree that the UK could enter; there is a specific clause in the NAFTA deal.

 

This is interesting speculation, but it will need to remain speculation for a few more years until the UK sorts itself out with the EU. It'll be fascinating to see what happens!

 

 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[Kiwiken]

But what if the US withdraws from nafta what would it be called? The NAFTA and trans Atlantic Partnership (NAFTATAP)

[ilostmypassword]

10 hours ago, chezy86 said:

Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and imports vastly more than it exports. Any country that can not see the potential here is blind. The EU is bent on punishing Britain for leaving, then they just walk away and trade with someone else. No more German/French/Italian/Spanish cars into Britain would result in redundancies in the EU for starters. Maybe an opportunity for Thailand’s Car industry to Muscle in who knows.But one thing is sure Britain will survive it has done for hundreds of years before the EU and will be in a better position when the EU eventually implodes.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

The UK currently enjoys a big trade surplus with the USA.

[Enoon]

11 hours ago, chezy86 said:

Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and imports vastly more than it exports. Any country that can not see the potential here is blind. The EU is bent on punishing Britain for leaving, then they just walk away and trade with someone else. No more German/French/Italian/Spanish cars into Britain would result in redundancies in the EU for starters. Maybe an opportunity for Thailand’s Car industry to Muscle in who knows.But one thing is sure Britain will survive it has done for hundreds of years before the EU and will be in a better position when the EU eventually implodes.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

There is no "Thailands Car Industry".

 

There is a Japanese Car industry, which locates some of its factories in Thailand

 

With what will the UK pay for its imports?

 

The redundancy payments of the workers from the car factories that will disappear from the UK upon "Brexit"?

 

The unemployment benefit from the Bombardier employees who are set to lose their jobs as a result of the US trade penalties being imposed on their parent Canadian company?

 

The paltry, part-time wages from "Macjobs"?

 

The peanuts earned by the once vanished (but now ever-growing) army of those "in service" (cleaners, child minders and arse-wiping "carers")?

 

Have a look at where the money came from in those "hundreds of years before the EU" and ask yourself "what is there that can replicate Britains power, the Imperial trade dominance and the scientific/industrial lead that enabled that concentration of wealth?".

 

It's all gone, or been equalled or surpassed by the new world leaders.

 

It was "a passing thing".

 

And now the UK has a population of 66 million.

 

But you people just don't get it do you?

 

You and the Eton boys, still fantasising about the lost glory of the ******* "Empire".

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Enoon

[Jingthing]

Maybe change the name to North Atlantic ...

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

There is no "Thailands Car Industry".

 

There is a Japanese Car industry, which locates some of its factories in Thailand

 

With what will the UK pay for its imports?

 

The redundancy payments of the workers from the car factories that will disappear from the UK upon "Brexit"?

 

The unemployment benefit from the Bombardier employees who are set to lose their jobs as a result of the US trade penalties being imposed on their parent Canadian company?

 

The paltry, part-time wages from "Macjobs"?

 

The peanuts earned by the once vanished (but now ever-growing) army of those "in service" (cleaners, child minders and arse-wiping "carers")?

 

Have a look at where the money came from in those "hundreds of years before the EU" and ask yourself "what is there that can replicate Britains power, the Imperial trade dominance and the scientific/industrial lead that enabled that concentration of wealth?".

 

It's all gone, or been equalled or surpassed by the new world leaders.

 

It was "a passing thing".

 

And now the UK has a population of 66 million.

 

But you people just don't get it do you?

 

You and the Eton boys, still fantasising about the lost glory of the ******* "Empire".

 

 

 

 

Posts like the above don't half make me chortle at their silliness. The truth is, the Empire was always as much a burden as an asset, but everyone knows that those days are long gone anyway. Another fact is that Britain is neither a has-been nor a superpower: it is one of the best performing, most influential second-tier countries, and will remain so outside the EU.

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Maybe change the name to North Atlantic ...

 

They don't even have to change the initials .

[chezy86]

 
Posts like the above don't half make me chortle at their silliness. The truth is, the Empire was always as much a burden as an asset, but everyone knows that those days are long gone anyway. Another fact is that Britain is neither a has-been nor a superpower: it is one of the best performing, most influential second-tier countries, and will remain so outside the EU.

When I mentioned Thailand as a possible source for replacement cars it was just hypothetical it could be any source. The U.K. has its own foreign car industry anyway who will relish the thought of expansion. Don’t think European manufacturers won’t see the potential either Britains spend lots of money and they won’t want to lose it. Empire? who needs one we can see what’s going to happen to Junkers European empire can’t we .


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[ilostmypassword]

11 minutes ago, chezy86 said:

When I mentioned Thailand as a possible source for replacement cars it was just hypothetical it could be any source. The U.K. has its own foreign car industry anyway who will relish the thought of expansion. Don’t think European manufacturers won’t see the potential either Britains spend lots of money and they won’t want to lose it. Empire? who needs one we can see what’s going to happen to Junkers European empire can’t we .


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Oh, it's Juncker's European empire that's in trouble, is it?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/aug/01/markets-eurozone-growth-gdp-uk-manufacturing-bank-of-england-live

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economic-growth-latest-slashed-imf-weak-pound-sterling-inflation-brexit-economy-a7992461.html