SURVEY: Brexit -- Good or Bad Idea?

[nauseus]

31 minutes ago, LaoPo said:

 

Shall we wait for the Brexit deal first before you make any assumptions?.....unless you've inside info from Boris of course. Not that he will survive for much longer, the same as Mrs May... 

 

I've never seen a government that's so divided as the present Tories.

Remember it's not just the government, it's the whole county, as is evident by the referendum result.

[adammike]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Controlled, targetted immigration, my man. No need to get your knickers in a twist.

Yup they are queuing up to come to be abused as immigrants,minimal rights,Rachman style housing not fit for human habitation,join your fellow nurses at the food bank,oh and the pound will be worth less than your zloty at home.priceless.

[Khun Han]

Just now, adammike said:

Yup they are queuing up to come to be abused as immigrants,minimal rights,Rachman style housing not fit for human habitation,join your fellow nurses at the food bank,oh and the pound will be worth less than your zloty at home.priceless.

 

Correct. People from across the world are queueing up to come to the UK.

[adammike]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Correct. People from across the world are queueing up to come to the UK.

Are you going to let them in or will it only be the billionaires when it's tax haven UK.

[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, adammike said:

Are you going to let them in or will it only be the billionaires when it's tax haven UK.

 

I'm all in favour of controlled, necessary immigration if it's done the right way.

[citybiker]

 
Shall we wait for the Brexit deal first before you make any assumptions?.....unless you've inside info from Boris of course. Not that he will survive for much longer, the same as Mrs May... 
 
I've never seen a government that's so divided as the present Tories.

The Tories maybe in element devided however compared to the opposition, Boris will survive for now, expect another minor reshuffle in early 2018 (maybe).

Labour, are in a total mess and brief summary so far since the Brexit result:

Initially, didn’t respect or accept the referendum result until pressured to.
Confusing their voters, also misleading them on student fees/loans etc
A leader who wants the U.K. to return to the 70’s with its infrastructure reclaim
A run on the pound prediction from their shadow chancellor as they’re economic policy is scarily worse than laughable.
A Home Secretary who is mathematically incompetent.

All this talk of models, forecasts etc is justifiable to an extent, the major flaw is Brexit is unknown territory and the Government is starting from scratch, that was coward Cameron’s fault due to his arrogance.

Now the time is focus constructively, progressively along with calm level heads and ensure the U.K. aims and achieves what’s best primarily for itself, security, Industry and of trade, if a mutually beneficial deal can be achieved through diplomacy all very well, unfortunately the EU is more interested in money and authority and ensuring no other MS considers the move. (Which is unlikely anyway).




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[nauseus]

3 hours ago, adammike said:

Yup they are queuing up to come to be abused as immigrants,minimal rights,Rachman style housing not fit for human habitation,join your fellow nurses at the food bank,oh and the pound will be worth less than your zloty at home.priceless.

previously .....on Project Fear

[citybiker]

A brief extract from the book ‘Clean Brexit’ Why leaving the EU still makes sense.

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/clean-brexit

 

Brexit is more toxic in the Westminster bubble than the repeal of the Corn Laws which, like Brexit, disadvantaged the politically entrenched elite to the benefit of the general public. The authors ridicule the warnings of Project Fear, with evidence. One sample, according to the OECD Foreign Direct Investment to the UK in 2015 totalled $33 billion. On 2016 the total was $254 billion, of which $178 billion was committed after the June vote.

 

Summary, gives a common sense levelled approach, along with Pro’s & Con’s, now I know nothing in the world of reality will convince or sway any opinion, judgment of emotive factor of the staunch Pro EU campaigner however individual research is always encouraged let alone recommended when posting unbalanced, unbiased narrative and not expecting it to be counter challenged.

 

In a respectful manner of course..

 

 

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[simoh1490]

8 hours ago, citybiker said:

A brief extract from the book ‘Clean Brexit’ Why leaving the EU still makes sense.

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/clean-brexit

 

Brexit is more toxic in the Westminster bubble than the repeal of the Corn Laws which, like Brexit, disadvantaged the politically entrenched elite to the benefit of the general public. The authors ridicule the warnings of Project Fear, with evidence. One sample, according to the OECD Foreign Direct Investment to the UK in 2015 totalled $33 billion. On 2016 the total was $254 billion, of which $178 billion was committed after the June vote.

 

Summary, gives a common sense levelled approach, along with Pro’s & Con’s, now I know nothing in the world of reality will convince or sway any opinion, judgment of emotive factor of the staunch Pro EU campaigner however individual research is always encouraged let alone recommended when posting unbalanced, unbiased narrative and not expecting it to be counter challenged.

 

In a respectful manner of course..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

 

1

"The authors ridicule the warnings of Project Fear, with evidence. One sample, according to the OECD Foreign Direct Investment to the UK in 2015 totalled $33 billion. On 2016 the total was $254 billion, of which $178 billion was committed after the June vote."

 

Indeed that statement is correct, FDI did increase to a level not seen since 2005. BUT, the author seems to avoid explaining why, which of course would destroy his original argument and make his example worthless thus he'll sell fewer books!

 

The reason for that increase was that the Pound had devalued by up to 20% making it far cheaper for foreign companies to expand their businesses in the hope that the Pound would later recover. As things stand, with banks et al planning on moving to Frankfort, that doesn't seem to be a play that will pay off in the short or medium term hence it could prove costly.

 

It's also worth pointing out that 2016 saw corporate investment increase quite substantially whereas the previous year saw it at a low. The increase is therefore not so much about the appeal of the UK but more about corporate investment cycles as evidenced by the 2015 versus 2016 (pre vote FDI numbers).

 

This is a perfect example of why Brexit is weighing so heavily on the global economy because so many large companies could easily take a bath as a result of Brexit and the impact would be felt globally.

 

Edited November 8, 2017 by simoh1490

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

"The authors ridicule the warnings of Project Fear, with evidence. One sample, according to the OECD Foreign Direct Investment to the UK in 2015 totalled $33 billion. On 2016 the total was $254 billion, of which $178 billion was committed after the June vote."

 

Indeed that statement is correct, FDI did increase to a level not seen since 2005. BUT, the author seems to avoid explaining why, which of course would destroy his original argument and make his example worthless thus he'll sell fewer books!

 

The reason for that increase was that the Pound had devalued by up to 20% making it far cheaper for foreign companies to expand their businesses in the hope that the Pound would later recover. As things stand, with banks et al planning on moving to Frankfort, that doesn't seem to be a play that will pay off in the short or medium term hence it could prove costly.

 

This is a perfect example of why Brexit is weighing so heavily on the global economy because so many multi-nationals are getting ready to take a bath.

 

'the author seems to avoid explaining why' - are you not sure? have you actually read the whole book?

'Pound had devalued by up to 20%' - no it hadn't

'banks et al planning on moving to Frankfort' - where did you read this? Guardian?

'This is a perfect example of' - old cobblers 

 

 

[MaeJoMTB]

25 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The reason for that increase was that the Pound had devalued by up to 20% making it far cheaper for foreign companies to expand their businesses in the hope that the Pound would later recover.

Pound has lost 18% against Thai Baht (But the USD has also  lost 10% in the same period)

Pound has lost  3% against the Philippine Peso.

 

So you would need to  know which country the 'foreign company' came from, before calculating if it were cheaper.

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, MaeJoMTB said:

Pound has lost 18% against Thai Baht (But the USD has also  lost 10% in the same period)

Pound has lost  3% against the Philippine Peso.

 

So you would need to  know which country the 'foreign company' came from, before calculating if it were cheaper.

Well we know it was cheaper because there were hardly any (meaningful) currencies that didn't see a gain versus the Pound, the only question is how much. And since I wrote "by up to 20%" I'm quite happy for people to pick and chose on this point. GBP fell by around 14% and THB as you have said fell by about 18%, it was the worst fall in the value of the Pound in over 30 years:  https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/23/british-pound-given-boost-by-projected-remain-win-in-eu-referendum

[simoh1490]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

'the author seems to avoid explaining why' - are you not sure? have you actually read the whole book?

'Pound had devalued by up to 20%' - no it hadn't

'banks et al planning on moving to Frankfort' - where did you read this? Guardian?

'This is a perfect example of' - old cobblers 

 

 

Actually, it's a perfect example of chickens coming home to roost, or as others have said, lessons in how to shoot self in the foot! It's also a perfect example of someone saying, no it's not true and it's all rubbish, without posting any proof that it is so and expecting everyone to believe them, that's not how it works!

 

The facts are out there, go read them, it's not hard. Here's another:

 

"However, foreign buyers – such as Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty-First Century Fox – used sterling’s sharp devaluation against the dollar to snap up British companies and prevented an M&A collapse in the country in 2016". In this example this is not so much FDI as it is UK companies being acquired by foreign ones!

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pound-value-dollar-sterling-drop-impact-business-foreign-investment-a7501716.html

Edited November 9, 2017 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

"Its average fall versus the Brics currencies was 17pc, but in the case of the South African rand sterling is now 20pc weaker".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/mapped-pound-has-fared-against-currencies-around-world-since/

 

And,

 

"Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc have picked the German city for their EU headquarters to ensure continued access to the single market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG are weighing a similar decision".

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/

Edited November 9, 2017 by simoh1490

[nauseus]

59 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Actually, it's a perfect example of chickens coming home to roost, or as others have said, lessons in how to shoot self in the foot! It's also a perfect example of someone saying, no it's not true and it's all rubbish, without posting any proof that it is so and expecting everyone to believe them, that's not how it works!

 

The facts are out there, go read them, it's not hard. Here's another:

 

"However, foreign buyers – such as Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty-First Century Fox – used sterling’s sharp devaluation against the dollar to snap up British companies and prevented an M&A collapse in the country in 2016". In this example this is not so much FDI as it is UK companies being acquired by foreign ones!

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pound-value-dollar-sterling-drop-impact-business-foreign-investment-a7501716.html

You say you want proof but don't post any yourself, first. If the the facts are out there - show us them.

 

The pound dropped about 10% against the USD immediately after the Brexit vote and then another 5% by March 2017. That's a total of 15% but you just can't help exaggerating everything! Today the pound is back to 1.31 to the dollar and down about 8% from the pre-Brexit level. The pound is down about 10% from the pre-Brexit level against the Euro and gaining back daily.   

 

Of course companies will take advantage of currency shifts. I bought Sterling at 1.20/USD, so what?

Edited November 9, 2017 by nauseus

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You say you want proof but don't post any yourself, first. If the the facts are out there - show us them.

 

The pound dropped about 10% against the USD immediately after the Brexit vote and then another 5% by March 2017. That's a total of 15% but just can't help exaggerating everything! Today the pound is back to 1.31 to the dollar and down about 8% from the pre-Brexit level. The pound is down about 10% from the pre-Brexit level against the Euro and gaining back daily.   

 

Of course companies will take advantage of currency shifts. I bought Sterling at 1.20/USD, so what?

The proof you're asking for is in my post 974 above, of course if you want to pretend it doesn't exist that's OK with me also, it's just that it reduces the credibility of your argument to zilch!

Edited November 9, 2017 by simoh1490

[nauseus]

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

"Its average fall versus the Brics currencies was 17pc, but in the case of the South African rand sterling is now 20pc weaker".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/mapped-pound-has-fared-against-currencies-around-world-since/

 

And,

 

"Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc have picked the German city for their EU headquarters to ensure continued access to the single market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG are weighing a similar decision".

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/

Bruegel | The Brussels-based economic think tank

Here’s where U.K. banking jobs might be headed

 

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Bruegel | The Brussels-based economic think tank

Here’s where U.K. banking jobs might be headed

 

And where is, rather than search the entire site maybe you could just tell us and post the link in support!

 

But actually, where they are headed is largely irrelevant, they aren't staying, that's the key issue.

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The proof you're asking for is in my post 974 above, of course if you want to pretend it doesn't exist that's OK with me also, it's just that it reduces the credibility of your argument to zilch!

Old story - out of date - no proof.

[rufanuf]

19 hours ago, LaoPo said:

SO: your vote goes to China?

 

China implemented the one-child policy back in 1979 and is abandoning the system now which is already in place; many families have now 2 or even more children.

 

The one-child policy didn't work on the long run since there's now an enormous surplus of young males NOT able to find a spouse.

Its a dramatic situation with a surplus of some 33 million (!) young males.

 

Could you imagine such numbers in the UK or the EU?

And in case you want to have an equal decline in birth rates....go tell the countries which have a young population; There are dozens of them, mainly in India, Pakistan, Middle East, Africa and so on,

 

But NOT in Europe!

 

 

So your point is? The same as mine? Governments the world over can;t get the basics right. Agreed?

[simoh1490]

Just now, nauseus said:

Old story - out of date - no proof.

A typical and traditional Brexiteer response, ignore the proof because it doesn't suit their argument.

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

And where is, rather than search the entire site maybe you could just tell us and post the link in support!

 

But actually, where they are headed is largely irrelevant, they aren't staying, that's the key issue.

It's in the Bloomberg story you linked. More propaganda from the EU influenced Breugel (or is it Bagel?).

 

 

[nauseus]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

A typical and traditional Brexiteer response, ignore the proof because it doesn't suit their argument.

So you can't deny it's old stuff then?

[rufanuf]

10 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The proof you're asking for is in my post 974 above, of course if you want to pretend it doesn't exist that's OK with me also, it's just that i

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

So you can't deny it's old stuff then?

Still all talking b******s on this thread then citing "facts" that are completely irrelevant to the real debate about whether Brexit is a good or bad thing is not even an economic one. Its all just a smoke screen.

 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

So you can't deny it's old stuff then?

In my post 969 I wrote: "The reason for that increase was that the Pound had devalued by up to 20% making it far cheaper for foreign companies to expand their businesses".

 

In your post 970 you wrote: "no it hadn't".

 

I subsequently posted proof as shown above.

 

You then switched the discussion to todays values but the discussion is not about today's exchange rates it's about the above, that being the reason FDI surged as it did.

 

Please, do try and keep up.

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

In my post 969 I wrote: "The reason for that increase was that the Pound had devalued by up to 20% making it far cheaper for foreign companies to expand their businesses".

 

In your post 970 you wrote: "no it hadn't".

 

I subsequently posted proof as shown above.

 

You then switched the discussion to todays values but the discussion is not about today's exchange rates it's about the above, that being the reason FDI surged as it did.

 

Please, do try and keep up.

The "no it hadn't was with reference to the pound" - it did not drop 20%.

If you want to use the Rand then say so first. You ignore the fact that several currencies were appreciating.

You haven't posted any proof of anything. Don't try and pick and choose date ranges to try and fix you errors.

 

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, rufanuf said:

 

A poster above posted an argument that FDI had increased since the vote, he did so by quoting a book that only partially tells the story. He claims that proved Bexit was a good thing and I have shown that argument to be nonsense, I'm sorry if all of that doesn't fit with the outcome you would have liked to see but those are the facts. I tell you what, if posters stop posting economic nonsense arguments, I promise to stop proving them to be nonsense.

[simoh1490]

Just now, nauseus said:

The "no it hadn't was with reference to the pound" - it did not drop 20%.

If you want to use the Rand then say so first. You ignore the fact that several currencies were appreciating.

You haven't posted any proof of anything. Don't try and pick and choose date ranges to try and fix you errors.

 

Which part of my statement, "the Pound dropped by up to 20%", do you not understand!

[rufanuf]

13 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Which part of my statement, "the Pound dropped by up to 20%", do you not understand!

Its called "curve fitting" Simon. all kinds of people use economic figures to try and prove their points. Where intelligent people figured out a lifetime ago, that statistics can be used to prove or disprove ANY argument.

[nauseus]

14 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Which part of my statement, "the Pound dropped by up to 20%", do you not understand!

The lying part