This year records highest number of new condo projects in two decades

[Bob12345]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

And, as you see, you may start with a 'glut' but end up with not that many viable choices.  Some will say, 'Oh, you're being too picky!'.  But, as I said at the start, you should be picky, too.   In the end you may need to compromise on some of your wants but it's good to have them as a starting point.

Your problem might be that you are "demanding" things that are exceptional for Thais. They mostly build for the local market (as 51% needs to be sold to Thais) and Thais don't want big balconies or appreaciate AC in the gym. 

 

For most buyers there still is a glut as they have different demands.

[Golden Triangle]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

      Yes, we always hear that there is a glut of condos on the market in Pattaya, and perhaps that's true.  But, I can tell you as someone out looking for a condo that there is not a glut of condos available for picky buyers.  And, EVERYONE should be a picky buyer.  My 'picky buyer' needs (which may vary from yours) are:  2 bedroom/2 bath, nice-size balcony, ocean view, foreign name, air-conditioned gym, large swimming pool, garage parking, and short walking distance to a baht taxi line. 

       Doesn't seem like I am asking too much but right off the bat we have to eliminate everything right along Wongamat Beach.  Ditto for Cosy Beach and some parts of Pratamnak--too far from a baht taxi line.  Most of the View Talays are out--no air-conditioned gyms.  Most of the low-rise 'theme park' condos are also out--no or poor ocean views.  So scratch off at least a dozen projects, including Venetian, Seven Seas, Atlantis, Espana, Maldives, etc., etc., etc.   And, all the other many condo projects with no ocean views.

       Grand Caribbean looks nice but no garage parking.  Centric Sea checks off most of the boxes but the balconies are too narrow for my needs.  The Base has many of my wants but from what I hear is out of control with daily renters--not somewhere I would like to live as a full-time resident.  Sometimes even when a project seemingly would work,  there may be drawbacks that rule it out.  And, so it goes. You weed out what doesn't suit.

      And, as you see, you may start with a 'glut' but end up with not that many viable choices.  Some will say, 'Oh, you're being too picky!'.  But, as I said at the start, you should be picky, too.   In the end you may need to compromise on some of your wants but it's good to have them as a starting point.

 

I don't know what your budget is but if you are seriously looking to buy something then for the money I have seen asked for a pokey two bed condo you could probably buy a nice 3 bed 3 bath single story house out on the darkside with covered parking and a communal pool, with local gyms close by.

[OldSiamHand]

I like new condos and shopping malls.  They help gentrify a city.

[newnative]

13 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

I don't know what your budget is but if you are seriously looking to buy something then for the money I have seen asked for a pokey two bed condo you could probably buy a nice 3 bed 3 bath single story house out on the darkside with covered parking and a communal pool, with local gyms close by.

    Yes, it's topsy-turvy in Thailand.  In America, a single-family home almost always costs much more than a condo.  I could afford a condo in the town where I lived in America but I could have never afforded even a townhouse on my salary, let alone a single family home.  You're right that with my condo budget I could buy a large single family home, likely with a pool.  I have friends who have done just that.  But, I like the condo life--just lock the door and off I go traveling, no worries about the yard, the pool, someone breaking in, etc.   And, gotta have that high floor seaview. 

[Golden Triangle]

2 minutes ago, newnative said:

    Yes, it's topsy-turvy in Thailand.  In America, a single-family home almost always costs much more than a condo.  I could afford a condo in the town where I lived in America but I could have never afforded even a townhouse on my salary, let alone a single family home.  You're right that with my condo budget I could buy a large single family home, likely with a pool.  I have friends who have done just that.  But, I like the condo life--just lock the door and off I go traveling, no worries about the yard, the pool, someone breaking in, etc.   And, gotta have that high floor seaview. 

I can't argue with what you say, same in UK, houses (and in some areas flats/condos) are outrageously priced, the only problem I see with a condo is that walls here are micro thin, if you don't have decent neighbors above and either side then life could be a real bitch, as for a high floor sea view, no thanks I get vertigo just standing up  

[newnative]

33 minutes ago, Bob12345 said:

Your problem might be that you are "demanding" things that are exceptional for Thais. They mostly build for the local market (as 51% needs to be sold to Thais) and Thais don't want big balconies or appreaciate AC in the gym. 

 

For most buyers there still is a glut as they have different demands.

        I'm not sure I would agree with your assessment that the things I am looking for Thais would find exceptional.  I've looked at a number of nice condos in Bangkok that were built primarily for Thais and they all had air-conditioned gyms, garage parking, nice, big pools, and being near public transportation and good views were considered a plus there, too.  There are also some older luxury condos in Pattaya that were originally built for rich Thais that have many of the things I am looking for.  Most, unfortunately, are way out of my price range.  I'll give you big balconies maybe not being as high a priority, especially in Bangkok;  probably they are more appreciated when you have an ocean breeze vs. city smog.  

      I think being demanding in what I am looking for will likely make the condo I eventually find more enjoyable to live in and easier to sell down the road.  That's been my experience so far in Pattaya.  I think too many buyers here are not demanding enough and they settle for a condo with very little going for it--and then they wonder why nobody wants to buy it when they want to sell. 

      

[tryasimight]

I wouldn't be surprised if the many unoccupied condos have been sold to Chinese people with a view to moving in some time in the future.

One common denominator with asian people generally is that they aren't stupid with their own money. I'll add I'm not talking about a village start up somtam stall that goes bust and takes the farang teeraks money with it, but serious money which may not need external finance to execute.

Lets not forget that when living and educational standards rise generally speaking, the world over, people move from the country to the city to live and work. Living standards are rising in Thailand.

China is a prime example of this country/city demographic happening now.

Perhaps the investors in constructing the condos have a more long term vision than the average TVF member?

In the new or, indeed the not so new, expats eyes perhaps what you see and rationalise from your own historical perspective is not the reality.

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, newnative said:

      Yes, we always hear that there is a glut of condos on the market in Pattaya, and perhaps that's true.  But, I can tell you as someone out looking for a condo that there is not a glut of condos available for picky buyers.  And, EVERYONE should be a picky buyer.  My 'picky buyer' needs (which may vary from yours) are:  2 bedroom/2 bath, nice-size balcony, ocean view, foreign name, air-conditioned gym, large swimming pool, garage parking, and short walking distance to a baht taxi line. 

****cut to make space*****

 

Sounds like the expensive end of the market, are you insisting on a new unit? For sea views people are having to go further out.

A simple adjustment may improve things, for example if you consider a nearby Tony's Gym as an alternative to one in house.

[newnative]

13 hours ago, tryasimight said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the many unoccupied condos have been sold to Chinese people with a view to moving in some time in the future.

One common denominator with asian people generally is that they aren't stupid with their own money. I'll add I'm not talking about a village start up somtam stall that goes bust and takes the farang teeraks money with it, but serious money which may not need external finance to execute.

Lets not forget that when living and educational standards rise generally speaking, the world over, people move from the country to the city to live and work. Living standards are rising in Thailand.

China is a prime example of this country/city demographic happening now.

Perhaps the investors in constructing the condos have a more long term vision than the average TVF member?

In the new or, indeed the not so new, expats eyes perhaps what you see and rationalise from your own historical perspective is not the reality.

     True.  Lots of the current sales in Pattaya are to Chinese buyers.  Many are being bought as investment properties to rent out but you do have some that have been bought for their own use.   One extended Chinese family in my building bought 3 condos in a row by the swimming pool.  They were here for a week a few months ago but the condos have sat empty since then.  I imagine they will visit a few times a year. There are probably others in the building, as well.

     Many so-called 'unoccupied' condos in Pattaya are occasional getaway places and part-year residences.  Fleet Week is going on now and condo buildings that normally only have a few lights showing at night suddenly now are lit up with people here for the activities. 

[steven100]

17 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Hope you dont mind i follow the lead of many by blocking you because your post are always the same: you praise prayut but never give an argument, add something interesting, or react on the content.

 

Have a good day.

I couldn't care less what you do .....   why even post ??

[trogers]

17 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

Why is it a problem Bob?....they have been sold...Paid for by people who can afford to buy them and not live there..., Paid for by people who do not have to take out bank loans or are forced to sell them.......What's the problem.

.

They dont view this as a problem in some of the hottest markets around the world...in fact a large hedge fund in New York-is channelling its money into real estate that it leaves empty. Why do you view it as a problem in BKK ?

New York Number of empty New York City apartments continues to rise--One third of the most expensive apartments in New York City are empty for at least 10 months of the year, according to a recent report by the US Census Bureau

London The number of long-term vacant homes in Kensington and Chelsea has risen by nearly 25% in a decade

 

 

 

On a macro view, the economic blood of the country is tied into unproductive speculation.

 

That's why vacant properties in Canada now face a 1% tax on assessed value per annum, starting January 1st.

[CLW]

It's all about 'face' not finance. I live on a moobaan of 62 houses costing about 4 million apiece.  Some are for rent & there are no end of enquiries but the owners are intransigent - they set their mind's eye on 25-30 K per month and refuse anything lower.  One house has a rent of 15,000 - it has never been empty in the ten years I have lived here.

And that goes for many other things besides real estate. Just need to look for rent or buy farm land. Mostly idle, abandoned or in the way of Thai thinking that growing some rice can make profit or at least supply for own consumption. In reality it is a good way to burn money. But these people would never rent or sell the land... Or have you looked at 2nd sale websites? Price there are mostly ridiculous... Thais don't understand the concept the value loss and depriciation

[Peterw42]

I dont get it, a record number of condo developments and 90% sold and somehow that means the sky is falling, based on a vague "empty condos" argument.

 

There isnt much data available in Thailand for real estate in general. Pick a condo block anywhere, nobody except the developer knows how many have sold or for what amounts they changed hands. After they sell, nobody knows the occupancy of the condo, lived in, rented out, holiday house, Russian Mafia laundering money, speculating for resale etc.

 

I cant see that anyone can give a definitive assessment of the Thai condo market as the data is just not available.

 

 

 

[mok199]

my concern is  the humid and salty air, what will happen to the taller condos in 30 years,when the pieces of concrete begin to rain down...???..''TIMBER''

[trogers]

4 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

I dont get it, a record number of condo developments and 90% sold and somehow that means the sky is falling, based on a vague "empty condos" argument.

 

There isnt much data available in Thailand for real estate in general. Pick a condo block anywhere, nobody except the developer knows how many have sold or for what amounts they changed hands. After they sell, nobody knows the occupancy of the condo, lived in, rented out, holiday house, Russian Mafia laundering money, speculating for resale etc.

 

I cant see that anyone can give a definitive assessment of the Thai condo market as the data is just not available.

 

 

 

I use the financial reports (available at SET website) of those public-listed developers for indications. Namely the figures for actual sales and the unsold inventory.

[trogers]

Just now, mok199 said:

my concern is  the humid and salty air, what will happen to the taller condos in 30 years,when the pieces of concrete begin to rain down...???..''TIMBER''

No, just Flexi steel...

[newnative]

29 minutes ago, mok199 said:

my concern is  the humid and salty air, what will happen to the taller condos in 30 years,when the pieces of concrete begin to rain down...???..''TIMBER''

I visited a concrete condo project smack dab on the ocean in Wongamat the other day.  Built in 1971 so well over your 30 year figure.  No concrete raining down whatsoever. 

[Peterw42]

32 minutes ago, trogers said:

I use the financial reports (available at SET website) of those public-listed developers for indications. Namely the figures for actual sales and the unsold inventory.

OK that makes sense, but you usually impart some "actual" knowledge on these forums, most seem to base it on the towels drying on the balcony, there are no lights on etc. 

 

Even then, I used to watch the developers try to manipulate the market in Australia, ACME property developments would build a 500 house estate, then a subsidiary ACME constructions would transfer title to ACME holding company. ACME property developments would hand out awards for the construction to ACME constructions.

Then the billboard and editorial in the local paper would state "multi award winning development, 90% sold in one month"

 

I welcome any commentary on the real estate market if its based on real data, not some vague (unknown) perception of an empty building.

[trogers]

2 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

OK that makes sense, but you usually impart some "actual" knowledge on these forums, most seem to base it on the towels drying on the balcony, there are no lights on etc. 

 

Even then, I used to watch the developers try to manipulate the market in Australia, ACME property developments would build a 500 house estate, then a subsidiary ACME constructions would transfer title to ACME holding company. ACME property developments would hand out awards for the construction to ACME constructions.

Then the billboard and editorial in the local paper would state "multi award winning development, 90% sold in one month"

 

I welcome any commentary on the real estate market if its based on real data, not some vague (unknown) perception of an empty building.

Yes, it's unfortunate that marketing lingo is frequently used to confuse the consumers.

 

Sales used in most advertisements and write-ups actually means booked. Actual sales would fall below as a substantial portion of bookings default come time to transfer titles. Thus unsold inventory and resales units 

[ChouDoufu]

On 11/15/2017 at 6:57 AM, Bob12345 said:

I think the bubble is unevitable. 91% sold and only 61% occupied would really worry me as a government and as a developer.

 

not enough info provided.  how many of those sold are still in the

design/planning/collect-deposits-so-can-begin-work phase?

does completed mean ready to move in?

are units used as hotels/rentals considered occupied?

 

"More than 268 condominium projects were launched, built or completed this year"

[ZeVonderBearz]

21 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Hope you dont mind i follow the lead of many by blocking you because your post are always the same: you praise prayut but never give an argument, add something interesting, or react on the content.

 

Have a good day.

I think stevieboy100 could very well be Thai version of the Russians who I've been reading about lately. They flood forums and social media with fake stories and propaganda in an attempt to influence. Worked with swaying the votes of Brexit and Trump, let's see if this fella can single handedly win round the TV users and make everyone love the junta. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

I dont get it, a record number of condo developments and 90% sold and somehow that means the sky is falling, based on a vague "empty condos" argument.

 

There isnt much data available in Thailand for real estate in general. Pick a condo block anywhere, nobody except the developer knows how many have sold or for what amounts they changed hands. After they sell, nobody knows the occupancy of the condo, lived in, rented out, holiday house, Russian Mafia laundering money, speculating for resale etc.

 

I cant see that anyone can give a definitive assessment of the Thai condo market as the data is just not available.

 

 

 

Bangkok Post had an article a while ago, where they used data from EGAT and occupancy were based on a certain electricity usage. The data is out there, just hard to find.

[joeyg]

22 hours ago, newnative said:

      Yes, we always hear that there is a glut of condos on the market in Pattaya, and perhaps that's true.  But, I can tell you as someone out looking for a condo that there is not a glut of condos available for picky buyers.  And, EVERYONE should be a picky buyer.  My 'picky buyer' needs (which may vary from yours) are:  2 bedroom/2 bath, nice-size balcony, ocean view, foreign name, air-conditioned gym, large swimming pool, garage parking, and short walking distance to a baht taxi line. 

       Doesn't seem like I am asking too much but right off the bat we have to eliminate everything right along Wongamat Beach.  Ditto for Cosy Beach and some parts of Pratamnak--too far from a baht taxi line.  Most of the View Talays are out--no air-conditioned gyms.  Most of the low-rise 'theme park' condos are also out--no or poor ocean views.  So scratch off at least a dozen projects, including Venetian, Seven Seas, Atlantis, Espana, Maldives, etc., etc., etc.   And, all the other many condo projects with no ocean views.

       Grand Caribbean looks nice but no garage parking.  Centric Sea checks off most of the boxes but the balconies are too narrow for my needs.  The Base has many of my wants but from what I hear is out of control with daily renters--not somewhere I would like to live as a full-time resident.  Sometimes even when a project seemingly would work,  there may be drawbacks that rule it out.  And, so it goes. You weed out what doesn't suit.

      And, as you see, you may start with a 'glut' but end up with not that many viable choices.  Some will say, 'Oh, you're being too picky!'.  But, as I said at the start, you should be picky, too.   In the end you may need to compromise on some of your wants but it's good to have them as a starting point.

 

I don't think your being picky.  My criteria is same as yours.  Only difference is I don't mind the walk up from Wongamat, however it would be different if I had to do it every time I went out I guess. Also  don't mind working out w/o AC.  Been doing it for 3 years now in Naklua.  Other wise we're on the same page.

[joeyg]

21 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Fair question.

 

The market in Thailand is different from western markets in that foreigners tend to pay a premium on characteristic old houses. My parents live in a beautiful house of more than 100 years old and there is great demand for the sort of houses as they are well-build, well-maintained, and their surroundings are protected by laws and regulations. It would be a good bet to say that their house will be worth more a decade from now than it is worth today.

 

Now look at the Thai market. Besides from some temples and palaces nothing is even near 100 years old here. Quality is often not that good, but maintenance is even worse. Add to that that most Thais prefer new units over "second-hand" ones and you can be pretty sure the value is not as likely to increase as in western countries. Besides, good chance that your valuable parkview (or seaview) soon becomes a view on the tower build right on your doorstep that now offers a view on the park ( or the sea).

 

Add to that that we are talking about condos. Every owner pays a monthly fee to help maintain the building, the elevators, and the common areas. By itself not a problem when people happily live in their unit, but many buyers are investors who hope to make quick profits and they won't have a taste to shell out much for maintenance.

 

A few years from now these condo's will look like shit and demand will fade away as newer and better condo's are build all around. The owners will not sell with a loss but will stop paying maintenance fees and will rent it out to whoever offers some quick cash.

 

So there is nothing wrong with rich people buying condo's and not living in them, but i know plenty of condo buyers who are not rich and who hoped on quick profits by buying a unit before the building is done. If occupancy is low it normally indicates people are speculating to make quick profit and they are not buying for the long term and for living there.

 

Edit: this would worry me as a government because when prices stall or drop there will be a lot of people with money tied up in condo's they don't use meaning they have less money to spend.

 

As a developer i would ask myself how many more there still are who are willing to buy my new condo projects when there are tons of unused condo's already. If they just wanted a second home then how likely is it they also want a third? And if they are speculators they might start dumping their units around the time i open the pre-sale of my new project.

I think you pretty much "nailed it."  IMHO...

[newnative]

2 hours ago, joeyg said:

I don't think your being picky.  My criteria is same as yours.  Only difference is I don't mind the walk up from Wongamat, however it would be different if I had to do it every time I went out I guess. Also  don't mind working out w/o AC.  Been doing it for 3 years now in Naklua.  Other wise we're on the same page.

We like Wongamat, too, and there's a good chance we might end up there at some point since we like some of the condo projects.  Since we have a car we could probably cross out being close to a baht bus route. 

[joeyg]

4 hours ago, newnative said:

We like Wongamat, too, and there's a good chance we might end up there at some point since we like some of the condo projects.  Since we have a car we could probably cross out being close to a baht bus route. 

I've been living in Naklua for a little over 2 years now.  It's definitely somewhat of a "micro-climate"  Halfway up the hill coming up Naklua road there air really changes.  Feels cooler and less humid.  Always a nice breeze on the West side of Naklua road.  Was living in Samut Prakon, just outside Bangkok for a year.  Came down and spent a week looking for places.  For me Naklua is hard to beat.

[gk10002000]

How many go un reported, un certified, border line scams, etc?

[joeyg]

4 hours ago, newnative said:

We like Wongamat, too, and there's a good chance we might end up there at some point since we like some of the condo projects.  Since we have a car we could probably cross out being close to a baht bus route. 

I've walked them all.  A friend was here from the states looking to buy.  We both liked North Point best.

[janclaes47]

On 15/11/2017 at 4:09 PM, Bob12345 said:

Edit: this would worry me as a government because when prices stall or drop there will be a lot of people with money tied up in condo's they don't use meaning they have less money to spend.

The problem will start when interest rates increase, because now many people invest in real estate because they don't get anything in the bank.

 

 

[joeyg]

Yep.  I was considering buying.  At 65 and very healthy thank God I don't see a good ROI.  So I'm just working on blowing my money.  It's been really fun.  I worked hard and saved like crazy for years.  Spending it is much more fun than making it.