Progress in Brexit talks has lessened chance of disorderly exit - Reuters poll

[webfact]

Progress in Brexit talks has lessened chance of disorderly exit - Reuters poll

By Jonathan Cable

 

Anti-Brexit protesters wave EU and Union flags outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, November 14, 2017. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

LONDON (Reuters) - Signs of progress in Britain's negotiations to leave the European Union mean the chance of a disorderly Brexit declined in the past month, a Reuters poll found, and the talks will probably end with a free trade deal.

 

Potentially heralding a breakthrough in the talks, Britain and the EU have reached agreement on a divorce bill and are close to agreement over the Northern Ireland border, newspapers reported this week.

 

So the chance of a disorderly Brexit - where no deal has been reached when the two years of talks are scheduled to close in March 2019 - has fallen to 25 percent from the 30 percent chance given in an October poll.

 

"With the UK ready to honour its full commitments in the Brexit bill, and a good chance that London and Dublin can strike a compromise on the Irish border question soon, we now see a lower risk that the UK and the EU will part company without a future trade deal by the March 2019 Brexit deadline," said Kallum Pickering at Berenberg.

 

The talks will probably end with a UK-EU free-trade agreement, an overwhelming majority of economists polled Nov. 27-30 said, as in previous Reuters polls.

 

"UK negotiators would be guilty of a dereliction of duty if they failed to agree a free-trade agreement - or at least to agree talks about talks," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

 

Second most likely outcome, the poll found, was Britain leaving without a deal and instead trading with the continent under basic World Trade Organization rules.

 

Third was European Economic Area membership, under which Britain would pay to maintain full access to the EU Single Market. The least likely option was a reversal of the decision to leave the EU.

 

The sample was similar to in recent polls.

 

INFLATION BITES

 

Britain has not sunk into recession since the June 2016 decision to leave the EU, as many economists predicted. The median forecast for one in the coming year is just 20 percent, unchanged from a Nov. 17 poll.

 

But growth will lag the euro zone's and the economy is forecast to expand just 0.3 to 0.4 percent per quarter through to mid-2019, the poll found.

 

High inflation, driven by a fall in sterling since the referendum, has curtailed the spending power of consumers who played a major role in driving economic growth last year.

 

Inflation has probably already peaked and is expected to average 2.7 percent this year and 2.5 percent next, the poll found, still well above the Bank of England's 2 percent target and unchanged from a November poll.

 

Last month, the Bank added back the 25 basis points it took off borrowing costs in the aftermath of the vote, taking Bank Rate back to 0.50 percent, but it won't act again until towards the end of 2018 when it will add another 25 basis points, medians showed.

 

It will add another 25 basis points in 2019, but if no deal is reached with the EU, economists largely said they expected to trim their Bank Rate forecasts.

 

None of the 68 economists polled expect any change when the Bank announces its policy decision on December 14.

 

"With inflation close to peaking and growth likely to remain soft in the near term, we expect the Bank of England to wait until Q4 2018 before raising rates again," said Dominic Bryant at BNP Paribas.

 

(Polling by Manjul Paul and Sarmista Sen, editing by Larry King)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-12-01

[gamini]

so now Brexit is going to cost up to £50 billion.

[RichardColeman]

13 minutes ago, gamini said:

so now Brexit is going to cost up to £50 billion.

Seems like a good reason to put up immigrant labour tax for any unskilled worker or job not advertised locally to me

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, gamini said:

so now Brexit is going to cost up to £50 billion.

I've read up to £55 billion

[Grouse]

This explains the recent GBP rally 

 

Effectively we will stay in the Customs Union and single market. There will be no hard border.

 

We will pay 50 billion, lose our leverage and freedom of movement but we gain, er, well, I'm sure it's something really super!

[RuamRudy]

12 minutes ago, Grouse said:

We will pay 50 billion, lose our leverage and freedom of movement but we gain, er, well, I'm sure it's something really super!

I think I read something about it on the side of a bus...

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

5 hours ago, gamini said:

so now Brexit is going to cost up to £50 billion.

I've read up to £55 billion

 

Effectively, it's a free trade deal which is costing up to £55 billion (paid in instalments). So it's 4 - 5 years of membership subs (at the current rate) to have the good bits of the EU, and get rid of the bad bits. Seems like a bloody good deal to me.

 

I did say that remainers would eat their words, and try to turn this positive into a negative .

[Grouse]

16 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Effectively, it's a free trade deal which is costing up to £55 billion (paid in instalments). So it's 4 - 5 years of membership subs (at the current rate) to have the good bits of the EU, and get rid of the bad bits. Seems like a bloody good deal to me.

 

I did say that remainers would eat their words, and try to turn this positive into a negative .

I think the status quo will remain for at least 2 years. Then remain in Single Market and Customs Union. Eventually the electorate will realise that their losses exceed their gains. We will then rejoin with none of the unique benefits we had. And for what? Exactly, bugger all!

[ilostmypassword]

23 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Effectively, it's a free trade deal which is costing up to £55 billion (paid in instalments). So it's 4 - 5 years of membership subs (at the current rate) to have the good bits of the EU, and get rid of the bad bits. Seems like a bloody good deal to me.

 

I did say that remainers would eat their words, and try to turn this positive into a negative .

 

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I think the status quo will remain for at least 2 years. Then remain in Single Market and Customs Union. Eventually the electorate will realise that their losses exceed their gains. We will then rejoin with none of the unique benefits we had. And for what? Exactly, bugger all!

Apparently Khun Han believes that the UK will pay 50 billion and after that not have to pay anything more after that. Obviously absurd.

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

 

Apparently Khun Han believes that the UK will pay 50 billion and after that not have to pay anything more after that. Obviously absurd.

 

Nothing absurd about the UK doing trade deals with the rest of the world and not being reliant on trade with the EU in a short few years time.

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Nothing absurd about the UK doing trade deals with the rest of the world and not being reliant on trade with the EU in a short few years time.

No, not at all absurd. Clearly there's no reason why the UK can't make up for the lost trade with a market that lies just across the Channel with markets that are thousands of miles away. This is especially true of a developing economy like the UK that will be able to easily undercut prices on goods from its competitors. Now if the UK were a rich country with a fully developed economy that would be a different matter.

[Khun Han]

17 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

No, not at all absurd. Clearly there's no reason why the UK can't make up for the lost trade with a market that lies just across the Channel with markets that are thousands of miles away. This is especially true of a developing economy like the UK that will be able to easily undercut prices on goods from its competitors. Now if the UK were a rich country with a fully developed economy that would be a different matter.

 

What a silly, facetious reply. Informal negotiations are already well underway between the UK and many non-EU countries. As these trade deals materialise, trade with the EU will become less and less significant. Thousands of miles? Are you avvin a laff? The world doesn't move goods around by horse and cart, canal boat and sailboat any more. Didn't you notice? Of course, we could continue to buy chinese-made products imported and re-branded by European companies at European prices. And we could continue to pay French and Spanish farmers over the odds for fruit and veg that we can get cheaper from places like South America. All for the sake of the goods not having to travel quite so far .

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

What a silly, facetious reply. Informal negotiations are already well underway between the UK and many non-EU countries. As these trade deals materialise, trade with the EU will become less and less significant. Thousands of miles? Are you avvin a laff? The world doesn't move goods around by horse and cart, canal boat and sailboat any more. Didn't you notice? Of course, we could continue to buy chinese-made products imported and re-branded by European companies at European prices. And we could continue to pay French and Spanish farmers over the odds for fruit and veg that we can get cheaper from places like South America. All for the sake of the goods not having to travel quite so far .

"The gravity equation in international trade is one of the most robust empirical finding in economics: bilateral trade between two countries is proportional to size, measured by GDP, and inversely proportional to the geographic distance between them."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w19285

"Gravity has long been one of the most successful empirical models in economics. Incorporating the theoretical foundations of gravity into recent practice has led to a richer and more accurate estimation and interpretation of the spatial relations described by gravity"

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16576

 

But none of this matters in the case of the UK because Brexit is Magic!!!

[dunroaming]

On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 8:11 AM, webfact said:

"With the UK ready to honour its full commitments in the Brexit bill, and a good chance that London and Dublin can strike a compromise on the Irish border question soon, we now see a lower risk that the UK and the EU will part company without a future trade deal by the March 2019 Brexit deadline," said Kallum Pickering at Berenberg.

The EU said today that progress in Brexit is dependant to a great extent on Dublin as the EU will back whatever Ireland feels is best for them.  Not sure how close that makes a deal but I hope it does.

 

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Nothing absurd about the UK doing trade deals with the rest of the world and not being reliant on trade with the EU in a short few years time.

Let's wait and see what happens and the conditions attached.  Everyone is still in the dark at the moment. 

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Nothing absurd about the UK doing trade deals with the rest of the world and not being reliant on trade with the EU in a short few years time.

'Nothing absurd? Really? In negotiations it's desirable to at least start from a position of equality with the other side. But it's the UK that will be the needier party here. It's going to have a clock ticking until its agreement with the EU expires. Why wouldn't other nations take advantage of this fact? Because members of the commonwealth are still grateful to the UK? Because in the case of some english speaking nations anglo-saxon solidarit will trump sordid economic interests. It's the UK that's under the gun. 

[aright]

8 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

"The gravity equation in international trade is one of the most robust empirical finding in economics: bilateral trade between two countries is proportional to size, measured by GDP, and inversely proportional to the geographic distance between them."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w19285

"Gravity has long been one of the most successful empirical models in economics. Incorporating the theoretical foundations of gravity into recent practice has led to a richer and more accurate estimation and interpretation of the spatial relations described by gravity"

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16576

 

But none of this matters in the case of the UK because Brexit is Magic!!!

More ill informed BS

The problem with these gravity equations is that they are mere associations from past data, which resulted from the policies and shocks of the past. They are not causal relationships and so you cannot assume they will be repeated in the future when the policies and shocks will be different. In other words, they can’t be used to predict the effects of a Brexit, which is taking place in quite different circumstances.

[ilostmypassword]

Just now, aright said:

More ill informed BS

The problem with these gravity equations is that they are mere associations from past data, which resulted from the policies and shocks of the past. They are not causal relationships and so you cannot assume they will be repeated in the future when the policies and shocks will be different. In other words, they can’t be used to predict the effects of a Brexit, which is taking place in quite different circumstances.

Mere associations?  When a phenomenon repeats itself over and over again with very few if any exceptions, it warrants seriou attention. And in fact there are theories now that go into it in detail But even if there weren't theories what novel events and policies are going to occur that will upset this relationship? You can't just say , just wait and see and expect to be taken seriously.

[ilostmypassword]

9 minutes ago, aright said:

More ill informed BS

The problem with these gravity equations is that they are mere associations from past data, which resulted from the policies and shocks of the past. They are not causal relationships and so you cannot assume they will be repeated in the future when the policies and shocks will be different. In other words, they can’t be used to predict the effects of a Brexit, which is taking place in quite different circumstances.

What makes this comment even more absurd is the fact that the gravity relationship has been observed throughout the economic world and throughoug a huge variety of trade relationships. So to say that something new and different is coming that's going to overturn this relationship is not much different from invoking magic as the reason.

[aright]

When did we last have a situation in Europe of the magnitude of Brexit. I'll answer it for you.....never,  so your phenomenon which repeats itself over and over again has never been experienced before so the equation can't predict the effects of Brexit.  Simples. If you don't believe me have a chat with the Chancellor.

[Grouse]

16 minutes ago, aright said:

More ill informed BS

The problem with these gravity equations is that they are mere associations from past data, which resulted from the policies and shocks of the past. They are not causal relationships and so you cannot assume they will be repeated in the future when the policies and shocks will be different. In other words, they can’t be used to predict the effects of a Brexit, which is taking place in quite different circumstances.

Probability

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, aright said:

When did we last have a situation in Europe of the magnitude of Brexit. I'll answer it for you.....never,  so your phenomenon which repeats itself over and over again has never been experienced before so the equation can't predict the effects of Brexit.  Simples. If you don't believe me have a chat with the Chancellor.

What is essentially different about Brexit that means you can't predict the effects of it? And what has that got to do with economic gravitation? There's nothing inscrutable about Brexit or not analyzable. It's just big, that's all. What new economic or financial principles will come into play as a result of Brexit? You're just peddling persiflage.

[aright]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

I think the status quo will remain for at least 2 years. Then remain in Single Market and Customs Union. Eventually the electorate will realise that their losses exceed their gains. We will then rejoin with none of the unique benefits we had. And for what? Exactly, bugger all!

What are the unique benefits then?

[aright]

1 minute ago, ilostmypassword said:

What is essentially different about Brexit that means you can't predict the effects of it? You're just peddling persiflage.

I thought I had explained it so I will try again but this time write more slowly.

Brexit is essentially different because in economic and social terms we have never experienced anything of this magnitude before therefore there is no history to create a model. Without that information you cant formulate an equation Can you name me an event in our history similar to Brexit which can provide this information?

If I am peddling persiflage you are peddling something you read in Wike which you obviously don't understand.

Time for Wales vs South Africa.

[Grouse]

53 minutes ago, aright said:

What are the unique benefits then?

The rebate for example?

[aright]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The rebate for example?

benefit has an s on the end

[aright]

25 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The rebate for example?

Half Time

In 2016 we paid in £17billion, and we got a £4billion rebate so the loss of that rebate would be more than compensated for by the £13billion we would no longer have to pay.

Any other unique benefits? 

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

I think the status quo will remain for at least 2 years. Then remain in Single Market and Customs Union. Eventually the electorate will realise that their losses exceed their gains. We will then rejoin with none of the unique benefits we had. And for what? Exactly, bugger all!

Well at least we gave Juncker the heebie jeebies for a while! 

[ilostmypassword]

8 minutes ago, aright said:

Half Time

In 2016 we paid in £17billion, and we got a £4billion rebate so the loss of that rebate would be more than compensated for by the £13billion we would no longer have to pay.

 

Not so. 

"In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.6 billion.

Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Not so. 

"In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.6 billion.

Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Just saw a split hair on my monitor screen.

[aright]

9 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Not so. 

"In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.6 billion.

Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Not so? All I said was we paid in £17b and got a rebate of £4b I didn't mention net contribution