As future political system takes shape, doubts remain about how fair it will be

[rooster59]

As future political system takes shape, doubts remain about how fair it will be

By KASAMAKORN CHANWANPEN 
THE SUNDAY NATION

 

THE LAST TWO organic bills, on the election of MPs and the composition of the Senate, have sailed through the National Legislative Assembly (NLA)’s first reading, taking the new political structure closer to completion after the two bills governing the Election Commission and the political party law were approved.

 

While more power is seen being put into people's hands to make their own selections of MPs, candidates through a primary voting system under the passed political party law are now given more of a say in how to engineer and shape a future government, which through a new election system introduced in the MPs election bill, would see power divided and shared among parties.

 

In the organic bill to regulate the House of Representatives, a new election method was introduced under the name Mixed-Membered Apportionment (MMA). To fill up the 500-member house, each voter would cast one ballot to determine both the constituency candidate as well as the party they like to represent their interests.

 

Since day one, the MMA system or the single-ballot system, has drawn much criticism from politicians. They and critics have constantly said that it would not truly reflect voters’ demands. Many contended that many voters will face a dilemma, having to choose between a local MP and a national government party.

 

However, the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) remains insistent that the single-ballot system is the way to go. Not only does it make every vote count, but also now both parties and voters have to think hard. Now if the constituency candidate is not attractive enough, the party will risk losing also the party vote.

 

But the tricky part is actually in the calculation of all the seats.

If the number of the MPs is to be apportioned by the votes gained from a single ballot, it is very unlikely that a party could be an outright winner. Rather, parties will have roughly similar numbers of MPs, resulting in a medium-sized party having more bargaining power in forming a coalition, if not also proposing a prime minister.

 

The concern about the selection of a prime minister has been heightened by the fact that the bill opens the way for the 250 senators to partly determine who the premier will be.

 

This is not to mention their authority to ensure the government to stick to the military-initiated national strategy and reform |plans.

 

Although public participation is highly emphasised in the Senate bill allowing cross election among professional guilds, the truth remains that during the first five years all 250 senators will be handpicked by the ruling junta.

 

 

And considering the fact that the average lifespan of this country’s Constitution is 4.25 years, it can be said that the 250 senators chosen by the military is all we’re going to get.

 

Some critics view all this as an attempt to block a particular party from taking a lead in the coalition. The assumption is reaffirmed also by the strict measures against corruption as well as poll fraud.

 

Because of the belief that past elections were plagued with fraud and vote-buying, the bills set out not only strong punishment for perpetrators but also strict qualifications for those who would like to enter politics.

 

Electoral fraud could land offenders up to 10 years in jail, cost up to Bt200,000 and get them banned from politics for up to 20 years.

The bills still have two more readings in the NLA’s chamber but drastic changes are unlikely.

 

After they are promulgated, a different politics can be expected. But the legacy of the 2014 coup regime focusing mostly around these legislations remains contentious.

 

It may be cleaner and better |politics for some people but for |others, it could be discriminatory and lack the spirit of democracy regardless of the holding of an |election.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30333052

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-12-03

[Samui Bodoh]

25 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

It may be cleaner and better politics for some people but for others, it could be discriminatory and lack the spirit of democracy regardless of the holding of an election.

This last line really says it all; I find the first part preposterous while I find the last part prescient.

 

When I look back at the last fifteen years or so of Thai politics, I see a group, loosely defined as the 'Yellows', unable to garner widespread support among the Thai people. And as they are unable to garner widespread support, they cheat instead.

 

I sincerely wish a bright and prosperous future for the Thai people, but I have my doubts they'll get it.

 

[Dave67]

A lot can happen in a year.

[binjalin]

As future political Junta system takes shape, NO doubts remain about how fair it will be

fixed

[Ossy]

FAIR? That's a dirty word to the Junta. We've had the 6 'reasons to like us' questions; we've had the 4 'what's the alternative?' questions - all aimed at coercing Thais into the Junta's Neanderthal thinking - and now we have the security threat of weapons in mud . . . any reason to delay the lifting of restrictions on moves towards fair politics.

 

As things are now, judging from the absurd claims and comments made by Twiggy and Piggy, anyone caught doing anything towards a fair election - even dreaming about one - would probably be taken away for a spot of A-A.

 

To the cretin who craves the trappings of PM-ship, 'Fair' is a dirty word. Having tried on the Emperor's suit of clothes, can anyone imagine Prayut agreeing to hand it to someone else? He's a sick little man and next year will be his undoing . . . well, that's what I and about 60 million (*) Thais are hoping.

 

* According to a poll of at least 4 people, in my village this morning.

[Chris Lawrence]

"Because of the belief that past elections were plagued with fraud and vote-buying, the bills set out not only strong punishment for perpetrators but also strict qualifications for those who would like to enter politics." 

 

But isn't that what elections are about. You vote for me and I will give your area this!

 

Although the General has attempted to show that past corrupt politicians will be dealt with, it has developed a bias. Then there is the question of transparency in the new purchases and the money that current politicians have or obtained. 

 

This is a Haggis type regime, running around the mountain hoping not to fall off the mountain.

 

 

[AGareth2]

1 hour ago, binjalin said:

As future political Junta system takes shape, NO doubts remain about how fair it will be

fixed

who says life is fair

[YetAnother]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Some critics view all this as an attempt to block a particular party from taking a lead in the coalition. The assumption is reaffirmed also by the strict measures against corruption as well as poll fraud.

a possible scenario; reds again handily win the popular vote and ,as was the original intent, become the 'particular party'; 

the losers then attempt to extend the persecution thru the new penalties;

the election results are then scrapped;

it becomes generally apparent that thais just cannot refrain from voter fraud;

as the election process cannot function under the new rules, the military assumes control under any number of 'national security' guises

[Eric Loh]

Using the 2011 election results as basis for extrapolating, PTP will only win around the 220 seats under the MMA system; not enough to be the majority.

 

Their strategy must be to take votes from the Dem constituencies. Possible? Maybe. Recent events may change the hearts and minds of the voters. Also the choice of PTP leader will be paramount. Must be non Shin. 

 

Coalition with the mid-size parties will be risky and fraught with uncertainty with lots of horse trading and compromises. I wouldn’t trust the mid-size parties (who will hold the trump card ) to love democracy more than monetary incentives splashed by the establishment; plus probably lots of arm twisting like in 2009. 

[RichardColeman]

Election fraud - 1 year ban ? Ridiculous. No wonder they are all at it - the punishment never meets the risk !

[Ossy]

As the excellent Scottish band 'Orange Juice' (with it's Edwyn Collins vocals) sang, 34 long years ago, let's just Rip it up and start again.

 

 

Having had 5 hours of this beautiful Sunday morning in which to reflect on the various posts on this topic, I've concluded that, if Thailand is to stand the remotest chance of seeing a return - no that's impossible, since they've never been there - of seeing the birth of CLEAN politics, in which the primary drivers are PASSION and CARE and ENERGY and HONESTY - yes, I said 'honesty' there pal . . . are you deaf or what? - then everything that has gone before will need to be ceremoniously burned and promises and oaths said, written and carved in stone. Let the different parties define themselves and their ideals; let them elect their squeaky clean leaders who relish the prospect of a clean battle to see who governs and who opposes.

 

Is all this just a crazy Sunday morning dream?

[Samui Bodoh]

47 minutes ago, Ossy said:

... snip...snip...

Is all this just a crazy Sunday morning dream?

 

Er... Ahem... Yes.

 

To be realistic, I'd settle for slow, gradual improvement. If you want to see rapid improvement in political honesty, you need a free press with limited libel laws, honest cops and a generally scandal-free judiciary. Unfortunately, Thailand is considered 0 for 3.

 

Cheers

 

[sjaak327]

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Using the 2011 election results as basis for extrapolating, PTP will only win around the 220 seats under the MMA system; not enough to be the majority.

 

Their strategy must be to take votes from the Dem constituencies. Possible? Maybe. Recent events may change the hearts and minds of the voters. Also the choice of PTP leader will be paramount. Must be non Shin. 

 

Coalition with the mid-size parties will be risky and fraught with uncertainty with lots of horse trading and compromises. I wouldn’t trust the mid-size parties (who will hold the trump card ) to love democracy more than monetary incentives splashed by the establishment; plus probably lots of arm twisting like in 2009. 

They would win 242 seats, unless the formula has been changed from last week.... Down from 265 in the old system. Yes every vote counts, but not equal. Lousy convoluted system. Apparently the 250 appointed senate was not security enough. Elections have been made inconsequential.

[Dave67]

Whats that book called, An infinity or Errors, oh sorry Mirrors

[Sid Celery]

As future political system takes shape, doubts remain about how fair it will be

 

No, Really? Quel surprise... not.

[yellowboat]

All this reflects is the average Thai's servitude to the 1% of the 1%.  They are marginalizing the voting blocks to the north and east, because they can probably never win those votes fairly.   Another shortcut that will cost Thailand in the future.