Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this

[aright]

Es usted un hombre hansome

Edited April 8, 2018 by aright

[Grouse]

Did you see Christopher Wylie on Andrew Marr's program! Very interesting. Even the fantastically well informed Marr struggled a bit! This is going to run and run. The pink haired one must have an exceedingly high IQ even though he is pro Brexit. An extreme outlier!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/07/christopher-wylie-why-i-broke-the-facebook-data-story-and-what-should-happen-now

Edited April 8, 2018 by Grouse

[aright]

Just now, Grouse said:

Did you see Christopher Wylie on Andrew Marr's program! Very interesting. Even the fantastically well informed Marr struggled a bit! This is going to run and run. The pink haired one must have an exceedingly high IQ even though he is pro Brexit. An extreme outlier!

I didn't no. My hotel carries Sky but not the BBC.I go home tomorrow so will catch up on I Player. Thanks for the heads up.

[malagateddy]

Are you Spanish? 

My dear grouse..Glasgow is a major UK city

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[Grouse]

3 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

My dear grouse..Glasgow is a major UK city

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Is it? Well that's nice then.

 

I just wondered about Malaga? Is that a suburb of Glasgow? Rumour has it that it is, depending on wind direction ?

[simoh1490]

49 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

As opposed to not having sensible arguments, and resorting to bullying, insults and prevarication when said hollow arguments are exposed.

Matron!!!

[simoh1490]

25 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Just wondering..is simoh1490 British?

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Not if Yorkshire has declared independence, who knows.

[Rally123]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

I disagree with first past the post, I agree with a representative system but that isn't in place in the UK so you are stuck with what you have got.

We don't have it but it's still democracy by the having the first to cross the finish line wins.

 

 

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It isn't about the people who didn't vote it's about those who did

Quote

 The referendum outcome should be seen for what it is: a narrow but clear constitutional decision of the highest significance. 

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Rally123

[talahtnut]

45 minutes ago, aright said:

I didn't no. My hotel carries Sky but not the BBC.I go home tomorrow so will catch up on I Player. Thanks for the heads up.

Safe journey.

[nontabury]

13 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I know how Team Brexit doesn't like to read about budgets and matters of an economics nature because it can make for difficult reading, and of course, there are things in this world that are far more important than money, nostalgia and principals being two of them.

 

But sadly, money is at the heart of all evil they say and nowhere is that more apparent than in reading the UK crime statistics, up by 24% in 2016 and up by 13% in 2017. Today in the TG Amber tells us these increases have nothing to do with staffing and budget cuts, of course they don't Amber now have a nice glass of warm milk and get an early night! Cressida Dick on the other hand (for Dundee's benefit, she's the number one police person in the Metropolitan Police, in London, in England) told us in November last year that staffing cuts would compromise the Mets. ability to tackle the very crime that Amber tells us isn't being caused by budget and staffing cuts - we'll just let the girls sort out that little dispute and get back to us perhaps although I think the answer is pretty clear.

 

It seems pretty clear that most government departments are coming under spending and staffing pressures and have been for some time, in simpler terms, we can't afford the services that exist so they must be reduced, the armed forces, the NHS, the police and so on. In a stable and somewhat predictable economic environment, aka the status quo, it will be difficult to maintain spending levels; in a Brexit trading environment we're entering into a period of economic uncertainty, if not a total unknown, hence our ability to maintain spending at the current inadequate levels must be seriously at risk of compromise. 

 

I just wonder if I can persuade nontabury to post his project fear cartoon again because for the first time we may actually have an appropriate place for it!

 

 

 

I agree these particular cuts have gone to far. Thankfully the government is now seriously considering extra funds for the NHS. Let’s hope they also increase money for the police, who seem to have a major problem in London with the continuose influx of unwanted immigrants.

 However you seem to think all the cuts over the last few years are the result of Brexit, and that if we were to remain in the E.U. these cuts would not/ will not take place. 

 

 

 

 

[billd766]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

Your first statement is spot on, but the fact that the architects of the Referendum Bill got it wrong does not mean the decision is right. In this so called democracy people have the right to challenge any decision, or is that in question. Any decision is only valid for as long as it stands.

Following the referendum TM made the decision to circumvent parliament, that decision did not stand for very long.

If people were not allowed to challenge decisions, Worboys would have been released. How wrong does something have to be before there is a need for it to be righted?

 

People only voted to leave the EU and parliament have respected that result in voting to invoke Art 50. Parliament have not voted on leaving the single market and customs union, so until they do everyone has the right to campaign for these ties to the EU. It is pure speculation what a vote to leave the EU actually meant and it is up to parliament to make the final decision.

 

Equally the people who are challanged also have the right to challenge back.

 

You can liken the decision to a horse race, dog race even people racing.

 

The first past the post is always the winner except in a photo finish when the judges have to decide. It is an accepted fact of life.

 

You and every other voter had the chance to challenge the way that the referendum was organised BEFORE it was held. Nobody did.

 

Trying to change the result after the election is like trying to change the result of a horse race or a footbal match. The rules were laid down, the referendum was held and there was a valid result.

 

Now if you want a new referendum, then why only one and not the best of three or five or any odd number.

 

If the Remainers win a second election then they should be challenged by the leavers for yet another referendum etc.

 

Who will decide what the pass mark will be and what will be the pass mark?

 

A simple majority? We had one of those and those who lost are not happy.

 

60%, 2/3, 70, 75%.

 

What about the people who don't or cant be arsed to vote. Should we split their (non) votes equally?

 

Who will pay for it? Those who challenge, those who oppose, or the poor bloody taxpayer.

[Grouse]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athenian_democracy

 

Something to ponder in bed while she who must be obeyed gets up to temperature

[nontabury]

10 hours ago, soalbundy said:

apparently 48% of those who voted don't agree with you.

Unfortunately they were taken in by 

Edited April 8, 2018 by nontabury

[Grouse]

10 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Unfortunately they were taken in by 

Things are indeed deteriorating along a broad front....

[talahtnut]

11 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Things are indeed deteriorating along a broad front....

Violent crime reports increasing in London every day...

Edited April 8, 2018 by talahtnut
addition

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

I agree these particular cuts have gone to far. Thankfully the government is now seriously considering extra funds for the NHS. Let’s hope they also increase money for the police, who seem to have a major problem in London with the continuose influx of unwanted immigrants.

 However you seem to think all the cuts over the last few years are the result of Brexit, and that if we were to remain in the E.U. these cuts would not/ will not take place. 

 

 

 

 

NO, I am not suggesting that these cuts are a result of Brexit. I'm merely pointing out the dire state of UK finances at a time when Brexit adds yet another layer of financial constraint which will almost compound the problem. And you say that goverenement is considering adding money into the NHS and you hope they will do the same thing for the police. The point is we don't have that money and it must be borrowed at a time when our levels of borrowing are already sky high, why else do you think we had the austerity program.

Edited April 8, 2018 by simoh1490

[nauseus]

49 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

NO, I am not suggesting that these cuts are a result of Brexit. I'm merely pointing out the dire state of UK finances at a time when Brexit adds yet another layer of financial constraint which will almost compound the problem. And you say that goverenement is considering adding money into the NHS and you hope they will do the same thing for the police. The point is we don't have that money and it must be borrowed at a time when our levels of borrowing are already sky high, why else do you think we had the austerity program.

Why does Brexit add yet another layer of financial constraint? 

[Airbagwill]

Looks like the fishermen were duped?

 

Fishermen protest over lack of control of UK waters post-Brexit

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-43680686

 

 

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

20 hours ago, nauseus said:

Tell you what. Read a few more, then you'll know.

Well I'm as lazy as you are.....

Leave: Yes or no one word answer.

Edited April 8, 2018 by George FmplesdaCosteedback

[Airbagwill]

1 hour ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Well I'm as lazy as you are.....

Leave: Yes or no one word answer.

Simple is as simple does?

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

Why does Brexit add yet another layer of financial constraint? 

Because EVERY economic model and forecast produced by organisations of note that I have ever seen have concluded there will be a negative financial impact from Brexit - where they differ is in the size of that impact and its duration. Whether you agree with the usefulness or accuracy of financial modelling or not is irrelevant, it is the tool that everyone uses and there is no alternate and  all the models broadly say the same thing. Here's what one model says from Rand Corp:

 

• The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.
• None of the ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios would be as beneficial to the UK as the trilateral UK-EU-US agreement. All three scenarios are likely to lead to modest financial losses to the UK economy compared to the current arrangement of EU membership.

https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/brexit-economic-implications.html

 

Here are two further papers on the same subject from Ruhr and Rabobank: 

http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/rep_17_700.pdf

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/assessing-economic-impact-brexit-background-report/

 

I find it difficult to imagine that Team Brexit will accept even for one moment that Brexit will result in any financial loss to the UK economy but that appears to be the reality, that being the case the discussion on this point ends here. For others however, the question is how those losses will be covered, do we borrow, raise taxes, endure further austerity or do we find something else to sell. Estimates for Brexit related losses from a variety of sources range vary significantly based on the approach that is adopted but a minimum figure would appear to be around 10% of GDP growth between today and 2030. 

 

The UK budget deficit is currently around £50 billion per year, that is money that gets added to the national debt which is currently around £1.78 trillion. But if all liabilities such as pensions are included, that number is actually closer to £4.8 trillion.

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42788489

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html

 

Whatever the negative economic impact from Brexit is, those losses will be added to existing debt and we will need to service that debt (pay interest on it), which at a time of rising interest rates and falling credit ratings will be very costly.

 

Further Austerity: Below is a summary table of cuts made thus far to government departments and services, you've read the news regarding rising crime levels, the armed services manning levels, NHS performance and disability care levels , do you really think we can cut much further without further negative social impact!

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39897498

Edited April 8, 2018 by simoh1490

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Because EVERY economic model and forecast produced by organisations of note that I have ever seen have concluded there will be a negative financial impact from Brexit - where they differ is in the size of that impact and its duration. Whether you agree with the usefulness or accuracy of financial modelling or not is irrelevant, it is the tool that everyone uses and there is no alternate and  all the models broadly say the same thing. Here's what one model says from Rand Corp:

 

• The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.
• None of the ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios would be as beneficial to the UK as the trilateral UK-EU-US agreement. All three scenarios are likely to lead to modest financial losses to the UK economy compared to the current arrangement of EU membership.

https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/brexit-economic-implications.html

 

Here are two further papers on the same subject from Ruhr and Rabobank: 

http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/rep_17_700.pdf

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/assessing-economic-impact-brexit-background-report/

 

I find it difficult to imagine that Team Brexit will accept even for one moment that Brexit will result in any financial loss to the UK economy but that appears to be the reality, that being the case the discussion on this point ends here. For others however, the question is how those losses will be covered, do we borrow, raise taxes, endure further austerity or do we find something else to sell. Estimates for Brexit related losses from a variety of sources range vary significantly based on the approach that is adopted but a minimum figure would appear to be around 10% of GDP growth between today and 2030. 

 

The UK budget deficit is currently around £50 billion per year, that is money that gets added to the national debt which is currently around £1.78 trillion. But if all liabilities such as pensions are included, that number is actually closer to £4.8 trillion.

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42788489

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html

 

Whatever the negative economic impact from Brexit is, those losses will be added to existing debt and we will need to service that debt (pay interest on it), which at a time of rising interest rates and falling credit ratings will be very costly.

 

Further Austerity: Below is a summary table of cuts made thus far to government departments and services, you've read the news regarding rising crime levels, the armed services manning levels, NHS performance and disability care levels , do you really think we can cut much further without further negative social impact!

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39897498

 

As has been pointed out many times, these forecasts by pet economists of anti-brexit forces never vary much from the economic model of the UK continuing along it's present course under worsening trading relations with the EU. Same old same old from discredited economists working to orders from corporate globalists. And it's getting very boring. How many times to these goons have to get their forecasts so completely wrong before people wise up?

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

As has been pointed out many times, these forecasts by pet economists of anti-brexit forces never vary much from the economic model of the UK continuing along it's present course under worsening trading relations with the EU. Same old same old from discredited economists working to orders from corporate globalists. And it's getting very boring. How many times to these goons have to get their forecasts so completely wrong before people wise up?

 

Ooooo, "anti-Brexit forces, pet economists, discredited economists, goons, corporate globalists" - all the usual blah blah escape clauses then, what else to do when reality hits you in the face except to blame it on everything and everybody not related to Brexit.

 

You have of course missed the point yet again insomuch as this is about adding to existing debt levels. If of course you believe that Brexit will not result in any additional debt for any period of time, you are unique amongst men, the economic equivalent of a  side show freak. 

[Orac]

Looks like the fishermen were duped?
 

Fishermen protest over lack of control of UK waters post-Brexit

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-43680686
 
 

Seems they have been “promised” something but the article is a bit lacking on who made these promises.


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[Khun Han]

17 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

 

Ooooo, "anti-Brexit forces, pet economists, discredited economists, goons, corporate globalists" - all the usual blah blah escape clauses then, what else to do when reality hits you in the face except to blame it on everything and everybody not related to Brexit.

 

You have of course missed the point yet again insomuch as this is about adding to existing debt levels. If of course you believe that Brexit will not result in any additional debt for any period of time, you are unique amongst men, the economic equivalent of a  side show freak. 

 

But the problem is: your 'reality' keeps on failing to hit us in the face, over and over and over again. Your 'reality' is permanently postponed.

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

But the problem is: your 'reality' keeps on failing to hit us in the face, over and over and over again. Your 'reality' is permanently postponed.

You are familiar with the boiling frog syndrome of course! If you were expecting one big almighty slap you would be disappointed, the reality is a series of lesser slaps over time, the gift that keeps on giving, you only need to look at government cuts and read the newspapers to understand that.

[Khun Han]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You are familiar with the boiling frog syndrome of course! If you were expecting one big almighty slap you would be disappointed, the reality is a series of lesser slaps over time, the gift that keeps on giving, you only need to look at government cuts and read the newspapers to understand that.

Other than the currency devaluation (which is a double-edged sword), what is the series of lesser slaps? 

[Airbagwill]

17 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

Seems they have been “promised” something but the article is a bit lacking on who made these promises.


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seriously? - have you read the post about being duped? you're fitting the role perfectly.

[Airbagwill]

7 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

Other than the currency devaluation (which is a double-edged sword), what is the series of lesser slaps? 

Ah yes - a double edged sword......a lower currency helps exports......except they're  trying to leave the UK's biggest export market as we speak.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Airbagwill

[Orac]

seriously? - have you read the post about being duped? you're fitting the role perfectly.

Yes they have been duped - promises have been made but if they are made by people who are not in a position to deliver on those promises then they need to be called out on it.


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