Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this

[Khun Han]

7 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Ah yes - a double edged sword......a lower currency helps exports......except they're  trying to leave the UK's biggest export market as we speak.

 

Will, have you ever even been to the UK? The EU comprises just over forty percent of the UK's export market, and continues to fall steadily.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Khun Han

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

Other than the currency devaluation (which is a double-edged sword), what is the series of lesser slaps? 

We're not going down this road yet again Hans, I'm sorry if you're lonely or bored but I'm not. View that any way you wish but these circular arguments that keep reappearing every few weeks are banal and serve absolutely no purpose other than to stoke your ego in response - frankly, it's borderline sick to keep having them.

[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

We're not going down this road yet again Hans, I'm sorry if you're lonely or bored but I'm not. View that any way you wish but these circular arguments that keep reappearing every few weeks are banal and serve absolutely no purpose other than to stoke your ego in response - frankly, it's borderline sick to keep having them.

I agree, and as to why you keep on raising your discredited arguments, using discredited economists to back them up, has to be one of ThaiVisa Forum's great mysteries. Maybe internet forum bullying is some kind of addiction/OCD?

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

I agree, and as to why you keep on raising your discredited arguments, using discredited economists to back them up, has to be one of ThaiVisa Forum's great mysteries. Maybe internet forum bullying is some kind of addiction/OCD?

I know you to be the last word man hans so I won't stand in your way on this occasion, but have you ever stopped to wonder why no Brexit economist has ever produced economic models that pass muster, and please don't go there with that mad professor from Wales. Nor why none of them has ever admitted to even the slightest negative financial impact from Brexit, not one - it must be a Brexiteer trait I suppose given that not one of team Brexit here has ever admitted to any potential negative aspects either!

[soalbundy]

41 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Yes they have been duped - promises have been made but if they are made by people who are not in a position to deliver on those promises then they need to be called out on it.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

It is rather funny in a way, "We want our country back" and yet they can't even control the sea on their doorstep. We are being shown where the real power lies and it isn't in Westminster.

[Khun Han]

20 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I know you to be the last word man hans so I won't stand in your way on this occasion, but have you ever stopped to wonder why no Brexit economist has ever produced economic models that pass muster, and please don't go there with that mad professor from Wales. Nor why none of them has ever admitted to even the slightest negative financial impact from Brexit, not one - it must be a Brexiteer trait I suppose given that not one of team Brexit here has ever admitted to any potential negative aspects either!

 

Various "team brexit here" (whatever that is) have frequently acknowledged potential negative aspects. But forgive us brexiters for having no faith in 'sane' economists who have the statistics-defying failure rate of 100% when it comes to brexit-related economics. Such a dismal failure rate makes us kinda suspicious of said abject failures,

[talahtnut]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

I know you to be the last word man hans so I won't stand in your way on this occasion, but have you ever stopped to wonder why no Brexit economist has ever produced economic models that pass muster, and please don't go there with that mad professor from Wales. Nor why none of them has ever admitted to even the slightest negative financial impact from Brexit, not one - it must be a Brexiteer trait I suppose given that not one of team Brexit here has ever admitted to any potential negative aspects either!

Hi simoh,  You seem to have an 'economic model' fetish, yet you

know they are just crystal balls, ooher, and they have too many

erroneous zones.  Which you find equates to erogenous zones.

Brexit is a logical way out of the EU mafia.

Not to worry, there will be no genuine Brexit..more like a Botchit.

 

[Airbagwill]

Let's face it there is no positive argument for Brexit.

Economically it's going to be a disaster and the sovereignty thing is a myth. These are the only 2 arguments they question....no, they don't question, they gainsay.........

At the end of the day if you comb through this and other threads you get nothing that is actually POSITIVE about Brexit at all from either side. At least both sides seem to agree on that now.

All you get from Brexiteers is a sort of bleating "it won't be THAT bad" (yes it will!), and the repeated totally vacuous concept that in some way we'll be "getting our country back", which if you think about it, is not only meaningless but an oxymoron as you can't give it away in the first place.

ITty seems the UK is suffering from a mass psychosis, like some bizarre Japanese game show, those participating seem to think the more it hurts the better it will be for them.

Let's hope they get well and elect a responsible (non-treasonable) government that isn't hell-bent on pushing the UK and all who sail in her over a precipice before it's too late.

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Hi simoh,  You seem to have an 'economic model' fetish, yet you

know they are just crystal balls, ooher, and they have too many

erroneous zones.  Which you find equates to erogenous zones.

Brexit is a logical way out of the EU mafia.

Not to worry, there will be no genuine Brexit..more like a Botchit.

 

Setting aside economic models for the moment, can you think of a better established way of predicting future economics? I mean, many people work up a personal budget for their monthly and yearly expenses and then try to extrapolate from it what their year-end financial position might be, that's modelling, is guessing a better way to do things in your world? Because I have to say that every business in the world beyond a minimum size produces these things, as does every government department, there must be a sound reason for this wouldn't you think? Engineers produce models, NASA produces models, almost everyone produces models of some sort at some point, only Brexiteers don't produce models, hmmmm.

 

People who don't understand how they are compiled, what they contain or how to use them believe they are always wrong, that's an educational and attitude issue which needs to be overlooked.

[tebee]

9 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Let's face it there is no positive argument for Brexit.

........

Let's hope they get well and elect a responsible (non-treasonable) government that isn't hell-bent on pushing the UK and all who sail in her over a precipice before it's too late.

It's the emperor's new clothes. now one may dare say the truth for being thought a heretic. We seem to be lacking in small innocent boys to open our eyes.

[Airbagwill]

I must say I'm rather bemused by Brexiteers who repeatedly deride  economic forecasts as psychic mumbo-jumbo, crystal balls etc.

On wonders how they formed an opinion on Brexit in the first place......It all seems a bit too Hans Christian Andersen to me...... but it does explain at least one choice of at least one ID on this thread.

[Airbagwill]

One more observation on Brexit and the chaos that has ensued.........have any Brexiteers actually looked around to see who voted with them? Do you really want to be in that group?

[Airbagwill]

I won't post any on this thread...they're far too inflammatory, but has anyone seen the "Brexiteer jokes" going around the net at, the moment?

Edited April 9, 2018 by Airbagwill

[vogie]

Just now, Airbagwill said:

One more observation on Brexit and the chaos that has ensued.........have any Brexiteers actually looked around to see who voted with them? Do you really want to be in that group?

I think it would be safe to say that brexiteers hate arrogance and supercilliousness, and that would exclude us from joining your group. ?

[Grouse]

On 12/03/2018 at 4:31 AM, dundee48 said:

It`s completely irrelevant whether you consider 72.2%(you just searched google didn`t you)to be a significant portion or not,the date of the referendum was 23 rd June 2016,everyone knew this.If the other 27.8% can`t be arsed getting out of their beds to vote then tough titties.

Brexit won,get over it.

Kindly add me to your ignore list. I have no interest in your opinions.

[BuriramSam]

Brexit has caused this chaos? Or is it the powers that be who oppose it and who don't like the way the vote went that is causing it? Probably both. But no pain, no gain. The people have spoken.

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Will, have you ever even been to the UK? The EU comprises just over forty percent of the UK's export market, and continues to fall steadily.

Disingenuous. Other markets are apparently increasing in value so the EU proportion has dropped as a percentage but not in absolute terms. I will research which countries are taking more of our products and services. I guess we could devalue the pound further but how that would benefit the lumpen masses I fail to see.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

 

interesting read

Edited April 9, 2018 by Grouse

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Well I'm as lazy as you are.....

Leave: Yes or no one word answer.

George, go to post 3477. I even left a note for you on it! I need you to work for this. No pain...no gain and all that.

[Grouse]

38 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

I won't post any on this thread...they're far too inflammatory, but has anyone seen the "Brexiteer jokes" going around the net at, the moment?

No, please enlighten us!

[talahtnut]

36 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Setting aside economic models for the moment, can you think of a better established way of predicting future economics? I mean, many people work up a personal budget for their monthly and yearly expenses and then try to extrapolate from it what their year-end financial position might be, that's modelling, is guessing a better way to do things in your world? Because I have to say that every business in the world beyond a minimum size produces these things, as does every government department, there must be a sound reason for this wouldn't you think? Engineers produce models, NASA produces models, almost everyone produces models of some sort at some point, only Brexiteers don't produce models, hmmmm.

 

People who don't understand how they are compiled, what they contain or how to use them believe they are always wrong, that's an educational and attitude issue which needs to be overlooked.

Now I see, so economist can predict the future of the economy.

When we joined the EU, or at any time, did they predict the mess

the UK would be in at the present time?

Any engineer will tell you that models are experimental and even

in the final production there will be modifications to be made.

There is no such thing as the perfect model.

 

[Grouse]

33 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Disingenuous. Other markets are apparently increasing in value so the EU proportion has dropped as a percentage but not in absolute terms. I will research which countries are taking more of our products and services. I guess we could devalue the pound further but how that would benefit the lumpen masses I fail to see.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

 

interesting read

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

 

Gives useful info

 

Degrading our trade relationship with the EU is insane

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Now I see, so economist can predict the future of the economy.

When we joined the EU, or at any time, did they predict the mess

the UK would be in at the present time?

Any engineer will tell you that models are experimental and even

in the final production there will be modifications to be made.

There is no such thing as the perfect model.

 

You failed, not surprisingly, to answer the question, what is the better alternative, if there is one?

 

Nobody suggested economic models are perfect or that they would ever be entirely accurate..

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Because EVERY economic model and forecast produced by organisations of note that I have ever seen have concluded there will be a negative financial impact from Brexit - where they differ is in the size of that impact and its duration. Whether you agree with the usefulness or accuracy of financial modelling or not is irrelevant, it is the tool that everyone uses and there is no alternate and  all the models broadly say the same thing. Here's what one model says from Rand Corp:

 

• The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.
• None of the ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios would be as beneficial to the UK as the trilateral UK-EU-US agreement. All three scenarios are likely to lead to modest financial losses to the UK economy compared to the current arrangement of EU membership.

https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/brexit-economic-implications.html

 

Here are two further papers on the same subject from Ruhr and Rabobank: 

http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/rep_17_700.pdf

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/assessing-economic-impact-brexit-background-report/

 

I find it difficult to imagine that Team Brexit will accept even for one moment that Brexit will result in any financial loss to the UK economy but that appears to be the reality, that being the case the discussion on this point ends here. For others however, the question is how those losses will be covered, do we borrow, raise taxes, endure further austerity or do we find something else to sell. Estimates for Brexit related losses from a variety of sources range vary significantly based on the approach that is adopted but a minimum figure would appear to be around 10% of GDP growth between today and 2030. 

 

The UK budget deficit is currently around £50 billion per year, that is money that gets added to the national debt which is currently around £1.78 trillion. But if all liabilities such as pensions are included, that number is actually closer to £4.8 trillion.

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42788489

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html

 

Whatever the negative economic impact from Brexit is, those losses will be added to existing debt and we will need to service that debt (pay interest on it), which at a time of rising interest rates and falling credit ratings will be very costly.

 

Further Austerity: Below is a summary table of cuts made thus far to government departments and services, you've read the news regarding rising crime levels, the armed services manning levels, NHS performance and disability care levels , do you really think we can cut much further without further negative social impact!

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39897498

Most of your forecasts and models are made by the same club that have historically fouled up similar ones. The budget needs drastic change so that the UK spends more on its own priorities and less on external financial drains, with the EU being just one example. The real economic benefit of being free of EU regulation will be cheaper food and energy.  

[vogie]

44 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Kindly add me to your ignore list. I have no interest in your opinions.

You haven't really got the hang of how ThaiVisa works, have you. If he adds you, you will still see his posts, you must add him and I'm guessing he wouldn't lose any sleep over it. ?

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Most of your forecasts and models are made by the same club that have historically fouled up similar ones. The budget needs drastic change so that the UK spends more on its own priorities and less on external financial drains, with the EU being just one example. The real economic benefit of being free of EU regulation will be cheaper food and energy.  

We know full well from your previous input on a range of subjects that what you understand about economic forecasts and models being correct or not is precisely zero, so it's probably best for all concerned if you don't try and comment on the subject

 

And the very thought of you advising that the UK budget is changed gives me cold sweats.

[simoh1490]

55 minutes ago, vogie said:

I think it would be safe to say that brexiteers hate arrogance and supercilliousness, and that would exclude us from joining your group. ?

You forgot to add fact and numeral literacy to your list.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Airbagwill said:

Let's face it there is no positive argument for Brexit.

Economically it's going to be a disaster and the sovereignty thing is a myth. These are the only 2 arguments they question....no, they don't question, they gainsay.........

At the end of the day if you comb through this and other threads you get nothing that is actually POSITIVE about Brexit at all from either side. At least both sides seem to agree on that now.

All you get from Brexiteers is a sort of bleating "it won't be THAT bad" (yes it will!), and the repeated totally vacuous concept that in some way we'll be "getting our country back", which if you think about it, is not only meaningless but an oxymoron as you can't give it away in the first place.

ITty seems the UK is suffering from a mass psychosis, like some bizarre Japanese game show, those participating seem to think the more it hurts the better it will be for them.

Let's hope they get well and elect a responsible (non-treasonable) government that isn't hell-bent on pushing the UK and all who sail in her over a precipice before it's too late.

The treasonous card was played in 1972/3.

[talahtnut]

7 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You failed, not surprisingly, to answer the question, what is the better alternative, if there is one?

 

Nobody suggested economic models are perfect or that they would ever be entirely accurate..

The answer you required is follow logic.

I am pleased you admit models are not reliable, so why why

would you rely on them in the field of economics.

 

[simoh1490]

18 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The answer you required is follow logic.

I am pleased you admit models are not reliable, so why why

would you rely on them in the field of economics.

 

Because that's what everyone in any related field today regards as best practice.

 

Logic eh, hmmm, okaydokay.

 

Out!

[talahtnut]

1 hour ago, Airbagwill said:

One more observation on Brexit and the chaos that has ensued.........have any Brexiteers actually looked around to see who voted with them? Do you really want to be in that group?

Yes it is daunting to be alone,  much safer, and instinctive

to be in a herd of cattle.