Hopes of Brexit transition deal face Irish barrier

[webfact]

Hopes of Brexit transition deal face Irish barrier

By Gabriela Baczynska

 

FILE PHOTO: A car drives past a sign saying 'No Border, Hard border, soft border, no border' in Londonderry, Northern Ireland August 16, 2017. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May and British businesses are banking on European Union leaders granting a Brexit transition deal next week but diplomats said they could face disappointment unless a deadlock is broken over the Irish border.

 

May's spokesman said on Thursday she remained "confident" of a deal that would reassure investors that little will change in trading with the bloc for around two years after Britain leaves next March and until a new trade pact can be agreed.

 

EU diplomats and officials said talks have raised their hopes too that, with London anxious for a quick deal, the bloc's leaders can endorse a transition at a Brussels summit on Friday.

 

But what some described as complete stalemate on Irish border arrangements risks derailing any agreement.

 

"This whole thing could end in tears," one senior diplomat said. "British business might get a terrible shock."

 

Asked about those concerns, a British government source conceded that there was still "a lot left to do".

 

The EU is irritated by Britain's refusal to accept in the draft withdrawal treaty the inclusion of a "backstop" solution to avoid a disruptive hard land border between EU member state Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland.

 

Sterling has suffered before when Brussels has warned that a transition deal cannot be taken for granted. It will not become certain until the whole withdrawal treaty is ratified, probably early next year, but Britain hopes for an interim EU commitment.

 

"No one will promise May a transition just like that," a second diplomat said after envoys from the 27 remaining states discussed EU negotiators' latest draft (http://bit.ly/2FCnGZ).

 

"But there is something in the air, there is optimism. Cautious, but optimism. We want to use the fact that Britain wants the transition so much, we would hope many things will therefore move. We will stress the Irish issue."

 

LEVERAGE

 

Another EU diplomat echoed that view, saying: "There is a lot of movement. All the rest can be sorted out. But unless Ireland is sorted out, there is no transition deal at the summit."

 

Germany's Brexit coordinator said "a lot of progress" was being made. Some foresaw a possible "fudge" of the Irish issue, as happened to secure a first interim accord last December.

 

Dublin insists London must accept the "backstop" which the EU says May agreed to as part of the interim deal in December. That would see the province effectively retained inside an EU-run customs area, isolated as result from the British mainland.

 

May, who relies on Northern Irish votes in parliament, has rejected that and said better solutions will have to wait for separate talks on future UK-EU trade, due to start this spring.

 

There has been progress this week in narrowing differences on such issues as expatriate citizens' rights, copyright and nuclear cooperation. But EU negotiators are reluctant to give away leverage they believe they need to cut a final deal.

 

"We won't just offer transition like that next week," a fourth EU diplomat said. "We would lose a lot of leverage, risk Ireland. But the latest talks have covered ground. So we'd look for a wording to recognise that and lock that progress.

 

"To send a positive signal ahead. They will get it -- if they accept our conditions," the diplomat added.

 

Negotiations are set for over the weekend and senior British representatives will be in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday.

 

May will attend the summit on Thursday, although Brexit will not be formally discussed. She may seek support against Russia over the nerve agent attack on a Russian former spy in Britain.

 

Any Brexit transition deal will be discussed by the other 27 leaders when they reconvene without May the following day.

 

(Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski and Alastair Macdonald in Brussels and Elizabeth Piper in London, Editing by Alastair Macdonald and Catherine Evans)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-03-16

[smedly]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

"This whole thing could end in tears,"

yes for Ireland if they don't stop this stupid nonsense, who are they anyway, it is quite frankly shocking behaviour when you consider how much they rely on the UK for 80% of their trade and many other things including a common travel area the long precedes the EU by decades 

 

Brussels are using Ireland as some sort of sinister divisive dreamed up bargaining chip that they introduced and have used it at every opportunity as these talks progress, it really is underhand and quite disturbing.

 

this article property explains exactly the situation

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/brexit-and-the-irish-border/

 

not to mention this one

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/eu-demands-violate-northern-ireland-human-rights/

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

yes for Ireland if they don't stop this stupid nonsense, who are they anyway, it is quite frankly shocking behaviour when you consider how much they rely on the UK for 80% of their trade and many other things including a common travel area the long precedes the EU by decades 

 

Brussels are using Ireland as some sort of sinister divisive dreamed up bargaining chip that they introduced and have used it at every opportunity as these talks progress, it really is underhand and quite disturbing.

 

this article property explains exactly the situation

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/brexit-and-the-irish-border/

 

not to mention this one

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/eu-demands-violate-northern-ireland-human-rights/

Ireland is a soveriegn nation that broke free of occupation nearly 100 years ago. Who is the UK to demand that another soveriegn nation dance to the very poorly executed tune that it is struggling to conceive, let alone play? What is shocking is the imperialistic notions of so many Brits in assuming that we still have power and influence in the world. Those days were gone before most of us were born, but we still think we are special. Delusions of grandeur doesn't come close.

[evadgib]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schedule-of-meetings-on-issues-related-to-irelandnorthern-ireland

[smedly]

24 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Ireland is a soveriegn nation that broke free of occupation nearly 100 years ago. Who is the UK to demand that another soveriegn nation dance to the very poorly executed tune that it is struggling to conceive, let alone play? What is shocking is the imperialistic notions of so many Brits in assuming that we still have power and influence in the world. Those days were gone before most of us were born, but we still think we are special. Delusions of grandeur doesn't come close.

The UK are demanding nothing, the UK is leaving the EU

 

It is Ireland who are demanding that the UK act, at the end of the day the UK is leaving the EU and will not be erecting any border on the UK side between itself and the tiny republic of Ireland, if there is a border is will be on the Ireland/EU side - the UK does not approve of this

[Bluespunk]

From the very moment brexit was voted in, the Irish govt saw the issues that would arise, not least, due to the very nature of the Good Friday Agreement.  

 

They met with the U.K. govt to find a solution. They were prepared to agree to an ad hoc arrangement that could be modified as issues arose and needed resolving. 

 

The british did nothing and are now facing the consequences. 

 

Inept, incompetent and sleepwalking towards very hard economic times. 

 

The current govt in the U.K. should think upon the words of a previous prime minister...

 

“Ireland, Ireland! That cloud in the west! That coming storm! That minister of God's retribution upon cruel, inveterate, and but half-atoned injustice”

 

William Gladstone 

Edited March 16, 2018 by Bluespunk

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

if there is a border is will be on the Ireland/EU side

So be it then as such is the right of a sovereign nation - I'm sure the EU will assist in such a border point(s). 

1 hour ago, smedly said:

the UK does not approve of this

Just as Ireland does not approve UK's inaction towards a well known issue nor care what the UK decides about Ireland's border security and custom control.

[smedly]

10 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Just as Ireland does not approve UK's inaction towards a well known issue nor care what the UK decides about Ireland's border security and custom control.

correct, what Ireland/EU want to do is entirely up to them, the UK has already put forward workable solutions and they have been ignored, this issue is a none issue constantly being used by Brussels as some sort of sick bargaining, and if the UK walks away it is tiny broke Ireland that will suffer a huge loss, 

 

read the articles I provided if still aren't getting it

 

and here's another about border trade from someone that knows 

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/trading-across-borders-not-difficult-or-costly-john-mills/

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

Unsuprisingly, Ireland is dancing to the eu's drum - and a provider of another excuse to the eu for stalling negotiations.

[smedly]

7 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Unsuprisingly, Ireland is dancing to the eu's drum - and a provider of another excuse to the eu for stalling negotiations.

exactly

[Bluespunk]

15 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Unsuprisingly, Ireland is dancing to the eu's drum - and a provider of another excuse to the eu for stalling negotiations.

It was the Irish government who went round to every eu govt to raise the border issues and ensure it was on the agenda for the brexit talks. 

 

Whether you agree with what the Irish are doing or not, this issue is being raised because it is of concern to the Irish. 

[samran]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

The UK are demanding nothing, the UK is leaving the EU

 

It is Ireland who are demanding that the UK act, at the end of the day the UK is leaving the EU and will not be erecting any border on the UK side between itself and the tiny republic of Ireland, if there is a border is will be on the Ireland/EU side - the UK does not approve of this

Absolute gold medal in delusion there.

 

So for a brexiter, it is perfectly fine to take ones borders back, but clearly not alright for anyone to take theirs back.

 

You can’t just offer one bit access to one part of the EU (ie Ireland) but not the rest..

 

You fellas voted to leave the EU, prepared to be treated as if you are out of the EU. 

 

And this works totally in Ireland’s favour. If the UK doesn’t put a border up, they aren’t going to complain. Their exports and goods will still still head to UK - and sans border from the little Englanders - as they always have. 

 

Goods transiting to/from the rest of the EU will just get a locked and bonded (no biggie) as they transit through the great and FREE!!! United Kingdom.

 

But the UKs exports to the EU? Get used to the tariff and regulatory walls the rest of us have to deal with. 5555

 

Not to mention that the threat of a border be it soft or hard and what that does for the NI peace settlement. Again, the bombs will be going off again in Belfast and it won’t be a problem for the republic to handle. 

 

So ‘little’ Ireland has really got you by the short and curlies on this one. But never mind, rule Britannia and all that.

 

But, but I hear you say, the EU need us more than we need them? Not necessarily...

 

Those nasty bureaucrats in Brussels can just approach one of the plethora of countries lining up for an EU FTA and out of sheer spite (some call in geo strategic positioning), cherry pick off a list of things that they get off the UK that they might be able to get elsewhere. And with that goes even more if the UKs negotiating position. Once you get together a skilled negotiation team of course. 

Edited March 16, 2018 by samran

[dick dasterdly]

21 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Unsuprisingly, Ireland is dancing to the eu's drum - and a provider of another excuse to the eu for stalling negotiations.

 

3 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

It was the Irish government who went round to every eu govt to raise the border issues and ensure it was on the agenda for the brexit talks. 

 

Whether you agree with what the Irish are doing or not, this issue is being raised because it is of concern to the Irish. 

As I said - 'dancing to the eu's drum'.

 

Edit - as an earlier poster pointed out, the brit. govt. has provided reasonable options -but the eu and ireland are looking for 'something more'  - without any explanation other than the uk staying in the eu?

Edited March 16, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[Bluespunk]

4 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

As I said - 'dancing to the eu's drum'.    

If there is any dancing, and I don’t think there is -Ireland has very real, legitimate concerns- it’s the other way round. 

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Bluespunk said:

If there is any dancing, and I don’t think there is -Ireland has very real, legitimate concerns- it’s the other way round. 

Sorry, I edited my post after your reply.

[Bluespunk]

Just now, dick dasterdly said:

Sorry, I edited my post after your reply.

The whole Good Friday Agreement is being put into jeopardy by brexit. 

 

There is nothing that can’t be solved and the Irish did push for an ad hoc arrangement. 

 

However, what the U.K. govt is offering is not addressing the Irish concerns. 

 

A solution is possible, as the GFA showed, but the U.K. needs to show more commitment. 

 

Nobody wants to go back to the old days. 

[smedly]

10 minutes ago, samran said:

Absolute gold medal in delusion there.

 

So for a brexiter, it is perfectly fine to take ones borders back, but clearly not alright for anyone to take theirs back.

 

 

I have no problem what the ROI do with their border after the UK leaves the EU as long as they take responsibility and not try to blame the UK who have offered workable practical solutions which have been ignored

 

you quite clearly don't understand the relationship between the Republic of Ireland and the UK from way before the EU, read the 3x articles I provided and educate yourself and stop talking delusional nonsense 

 

 

[smedly]

5 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

The whole Good Friday Agreement is being put into jeopardy by brexit. 

 

There is nothing that can’t be solved and the Irish did push for an ad hoc arrangement. 

 

However, what the U.K. govt is offering is not addressing the Irish concerns. 

 

A solution is possible, as the GFA showed, but the U.K. needs to show more commitment. 

 

Nobody wants to go back to the old days. 

you are clearly ignoring the fact that Northern Ireland is as much part of the UK as England Scotland and Wales, on the last poll (recently) almost 80% want to remain within the UK, the suggestion from Brussels and ROI that N.Ireland has some sort of border between it and the UK is quite frankly ridiculous and will never ever happen on so many levels - even to suggest it is straight off the loony tree 

[smedly]

11 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

The whole Good Friday Agreement is being put into jeopardy by brexit. 

 

 

and that is total nonsense, certain divisive people are trying to use it as some sort of lever, you very obviously have no idea what you are talking about like many other posting on this thread, I have gone to the trouble of posting some useful information from people that know may I suggest you go do some reading 

[Bluespunk]

5 minutes ago, smedly said:

you are clearly ignoring the fact that Northern Ireland is as much part of the UK as England Scotland and Wales, on the last poll (recently) almost 80% want to remain within the UK, the suggestion from Brussels and ROI that N.Ireland has some sort of border between it and the UK is quite frankly ridiculous and will never ever happen on so many levels - even to suggest it is straight off the loony tree 

I’m doing no such thing. 

 

While we clearly disagree on Northern Ireland’s status within the U.K., my point is not about that or whether  brexit is happening or not. 

 

brexit is happening and if the Good Friday Agreement is to survive it an agreement acceptable to both Ireland and the U.K. is vital. 

 

The uk govt has failed to address Ireland’s legitimate concerns, hence the current impasse. 

[Bluespunk]

6 minutes ago, smedly said:

and that is total nonsense, certain divisive people are trying to use it as some sort of lever, you very obviously have no idea what you are talking about like many other posting on this thread, I have gone to the trouble of posting some useful information from people that know may I suggest you go do some reading 

I do know what I am talking about.

 

I have family on both sides of the border and they are indeed concerned. 

 

No one is threatening your precious brexit, but there are legitimate concerns arising from it, that must be addressed. 

[samran]

53 minutes ago, smedly said:

I have no problem what the ROI do with their border after the UK leaves the EU as long as they take responsibility and not try to blame the UK who have offered workable practical solutions which have been ignored

 

you quite clearly don't understand the relationship between the Republic of Ireland and the UK from way before the EU, read the 3x articles I provided and educate yourself and stop talking delusional nonsense 

 

 

Sorry, but I very much do, to the extent that the CTA which predates the EU by decades will have to be codified before brexit next year. I also know for the purposes law, UK and Irish nationals are not treated as foreigners in each other’s countries as far as all sorts of legislation is concerned.

 

So links are deep, but seemingly worthless to the UK.

 

But with all this history you rightly point out, it was the who UK decided to totally ignore it in the lead up to the vote. It clearly can’t have been that important to voters. That message is loud and clear to the ROI.

 

So....if you want to talk history, Ireland is simply learning and applying  the lessons that Australia, NZ and Canada (in particular) learned when you walked out on them to join the common market.

 

History and linkages meant nothing then and all those countries had to forge new trade relationships, which led to a good decade of economic upheaval in those countries. 

 

Ireland is seeing how much history and ‘kinship’ ultimately means to the Uk (ie zilch) and are acting in their own interests. If that means some unpalatable truths and tactics during the negotiations, then so be it. The UK bought this on themselves. 

 

Edited March 16, 2018 by samran

[smedly]

36 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

 

 

While we clearly disagree on Northern Ireland’s status within the U.K., 

There is no grey area of Northern Irelands status in the UK - it "IS" part of the UK whether you like it or not and will remain that way until the majority of people in Northern Ireland say otherwise

 

Your personal republican aspirations for a united Ireland are exactly that - personal aspirations 

[rickudon]

Did read one of Smedley's beloved articles. John Mills already does 80% of his trade outside the EU, so has little to loose. And he says why have remainers complained about the drop in GBP after Brexit, but not the improvement in dollar/GBP exchange rate? Well, the EU uses Euros, so changes in the dollar/GBP rate not relevant, it is the dollar which has fallen, not the Euro. And a fall in the dollar will make exports outside the EU harder.

 

He also dismisses the tariff barriers as being only a couple of percent. Well, the product matters a lot. The UK exports over one third of its sheep meat production to the EU. Currently tarif free. Imports to the EU get hit with tariffs  of between 32-72%. So no deal would mean that to continue exports of sheepmeat would require substantial cuts in the price it was sold at to remain competitive. Currently farmers make little or any profit on sheep exports, they rely on EU farm subsidies to make it viable (which would also disappear). So the reality is that a no deal Brexit would require sheep farmers to cut production by at least 40%. This is just one small area which i know a little about. Their will thousands of other losers.

 

Brexiteers care nothing for those whose livelihood will suffer (or maybe just don't understand it).

[smedly]

8 minutes ago, samran said:

But with all this history you rightly point out, it was the who UK decided to totally ignore it in the lead up to the vote.

The people of the UK voted to leave the EU, when the people of the UK were ticking boxes on the ballot they were "not" considering the Irish Republic........why should they, it is now up to the ROI to sit down with the UK and work something out then apply for permission from Brussels, the UK is blocking nothing and as I have said repeatedly have already offered simple working solutions to the problem which are being ignored 

[smedly]

5 minutes ago, rickudon said:

Did read one of Smedley's beloved articles

not my article, I simply provided a link to it in order to educate the few on here that don't get it 

[Bluespunk]

8 minutes ago, smedly said:

There is no grey area of Northern Irelands status in the UK - it "IS" part of the UK whether you like it or not and will remain that way until the majority of people in Northern Ireland say otherwise

 

Your personal republican aspirations for a united Ireland are exactly that - personal aspirations 

I’m no Republican.

 

And as I indicated, this thread isn’t about Northern Ireland’s status in the U.K.  

[rickudon]

Smedley, I do get it - it is also as biased and as informative as many other Brexit posts. Some truths, some distortions, some rubbish.

 

The reality is that Brexit is far more complicated than ANYONE realises.

[smedly]

2 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

I’m no Republican.

 

And as I indicated, this thread isn’t about Northern Ireland’s status in the U.K.  

oh really, well it is in fact, because both Brussels and the ROI are proposing an effective border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, if you think that is even remotely workable then you are delusional, whatever happens to the UK will happen to all of the UK - no exceptions, if the ROI and the UK reach some sort of agreement on the movement of goods and people it will be across the UK just as it has been for decades and I am all for that

[Bluespunk]

2 minutes ago, smedly said:

oh really, well it is in fact, because both Brussels and the ROI are proposing an effective border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, if you think that is even remotely workable then you are delusional, whatever happens to the UK will happen to all of the UK - no exceptions, if the ROI and the UK reach some sort of agreement on the movement of goods and people it will be across the UK just as it has been for decades and I am all for that

I am all for an agreement and that is what the Irish govt has been pushing for since the brexit vote. 

 

The uk govt has singularly failed to address the issues brexit raises, particularly regarding the GFA. 

 

Hence, the current impasse.