Stop Press ! Stop Press Baht Rises

[bkkandrew]

I apologise for repeating myself, but has anyone seen the note rate spread at Super Rich?

Also what is the weekend rate at Forex booths around the city for USD, GBP and EUR?

[LaoPo]

I apologise for repeating myself, but has anyone seen the note rate spread at Super Rich?

Also what is the weekend rate at Forex booths around the city for USD, GBP and EUR?

1. Thaivisa is SUPER SLOW AT THE MOMENT.... server problems ?

2. I'm not sure what you mean by 'Super Rich' ?

3. same for 'weekend rate' at Forex....

LaoPo

[bkkandrew]

I apologise for repeating myself, but has anyone seen the note rate spread at Super Rich?

Also what is the weekend rate at Forex booths around the city for USD, GBP and EUR?

1. Thaivisa is SUPER SLOW AT THE MOMENT.... server problems ?

2. I'm not sure what you mean by 'Super Rich' ?

3. same for 'weekend rate' at Forex....

LaoPo

Super Rich is the main, non-bank exchange system, based in Pratunam. It has the lowest spread between buy and sell, therefore gives the most accurate on-shore rate indication..

Weekend rate is the rate at booths accross Bangkok that stabalise due to the closure of the markets during the weekend..

Sorry for my colloqualisms

Edited January 26, 2007 by bkkandrew

[roamer]

Personally I blame Topfield for the whole thing, he started it.

[LaoPo]

The US economy isn't bad at all right now. The weakening dollar is helping to lower the deficits and helps with US exports and inbound tourism. So it ain't that simple. Seems to me the current baht move is more about the Chinese Yuan.

Really ?...you must be an American (nothing wrong with that but a bit chauvinistic)

Like you said...it's not that simple.

Inbound US tourism is declining sharply and certainly not rising.*

The rising Baht movement has less to do with the Yuan than mere speculation from large stocktraders and multinationals buying 'cheap' Thai stocks and therefore need Baht.

But, if the Baht gets too expensive there's no need anymore to buy Baht/stock since the difference will find a level that the stockbuyers will sell the stocks (again)....take profit and leave the Baht (again)....

than what ?

* US tourism:

Over the five years, the decline has meant 58 million fewer visitors, 194,000 lost jobs, $US94 billion in lost spending and 15.6 billion in lost tax revenues.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/stor...5001024,00.html

LaoPo

Edited January 27, 2007 by LaoPo

[Naam]

Almost 3,5% gain for the Baht against the Euro. That's a lot but since 9.00AM GMT it didn't change that much.

LaoPo

the explanation is that Globex 24 hours currency trade stops friday midnights EST and starts sundays at 19.00 hours EST. during the "stop times" the only trades carried out are in the Middle East but these trades are not reported.

[papakapbaan]

2. Devaluation...? Quite possible but a timeframe is hard to predict.

Personally I don't see that many reasons as of why the Baht is so expensive at the moment. The -Thai- money market seems to be very nervous and that's mostly because of big players around the world (Forex).

3. It seems to me that the BoT/Government has to do something in the very near future about the value of the Baht; the 30% rule and other new 'laws' didn't help the economical situation of Thailand. On the contrary.

Therefore a devaluation of the Baht wouldn't surprise me at all. The sooner the better...for Thailand.

LaoPo

So: sorry, again: could any expert/knowledgeable member here advise please?

It is reasonable to keep important amounts of Baht in Thailand given the facts that:

-Baht is much stronger "offshore" than "onshore"? (so the same Baht will buy more foreign currency abroad than in Thailand)

-All this may be the prelude to a new devalution?

On the other hand is it likely the Baht will continue to appreciate for some time? And the differential between off/on shore rates will increase too?

I guess the answer is always in the "timeline hard to predict" but..........

Edited January 27, 2007 by papakapbaan

[srisatch]

10.00 AM

Nationwide rate is 65.23=£1

To buy or not to buy

Just needs Chavalit to join the CNS and back to 90=£1....if only

[reddevil_06510]

10.00 AM

Nationwide rate is 65.23=£1

To buy or not to buy

Just needs Chavalit to join the CNS and back to 90=£1....if only

Stay out

On Monday either 3 things can happen

1) The free fall continues, but this is dangerous as the spread between the onshore and offshore rates will do more harm than good

2) The BoT will step in, this is unlikely at this point as it looks like they have committed some serious reserves to keep it at 35 for the past 5 weeks.

3) The shorts will jump out happy with the profit they made over Friday and the Baht will bounce back to 34.50 to 35

I still think it is headed towards 32 and it could get hairy with the spread in onshore and offshore rates, the best bet for the daytraders is to stay out.

[monch]

The onshore rate has changed relatively little as is unlikely to do so.

This is all a result of the new 30% law, which is an attempt to put a stop to short term trading in baht,

For long term investors in Thailand however, the onshore rate is near to 70 and the government will not hold onto 30 % of foreign currency if you can prove this case.

[wasabi]

Only Al Gore can fix this situation, he cares deeply about the Thai Baht and the welfare of US expats in Thailand. Al Gore for President 2008.

[monch]

Only Al Gore can fix this situation, he cares deeply about the Thai Baht and the welfare of US expats in Thailand. Al Gore for President 2008.

surely if they draw their dollars out of a siam bank ATM theres no problem anyway ?

[chiang mai]

Baht devaluation, here we come!

devaluation? how many bottles of Chang today?

None and I will remind you of your post at a later date, probably sooner than later!

"All this may be the prelude to a new devalution"?

[goatfarmer]

Back up to 34.25 It would be interesting to know who these speculators are.

Or indeed, whether in fact there are speculators at all. The quote from Phatra Securities says it all:

A recent Phatra Securities report questioned the effectiveness of the capital-control policy.

"The authorities' attempts to stabilise or weaken the baht may have only a limited impact, because the underlying cause of the baht's strength, in our view, is that Thailand is exporting too much. That is, Thailand cannot find ways to use the foreign exchange it earns," said the report.

More likely the baht is rising due to fundamental reasons, not speculation.

[goatfarmer]

Baht devaluation, here we come!

devaluation? how many bottles of Chang today?

None and I will remind you of your post at a later date, probably sooner than later!

"All this may be the prelude to a new devalution"?

If the baht is 'devalued' that would require setting an artificial exchange rate. The experience of ten years ago shows the folly of such a measure. Let's hope the BoT has learnt that lesson, at the very least.

[JimmyGreaves]

10.00 AM

Nationwide rate is 65.23=£1

To buy or not to buy

Just needs Chavalit to join the CNS and back to 90=£1....if only

Just changed 10,000 baht with my Nationwide Debit Card in Thailand. Rate = 69.97.

Any ideas what rate is being given when sending sterling from your bank in the UK under 20,000 USD?

[gdhm]

Baht devaluation, here we come!

devaluation? how many bottles of Chang today?

None and I will remind you of your post at a later date, probably sooner than later!

"All this may be the prelude to a new devalution"?

If the baht is 'devalued' that would require setting an artificial exchange rate. The experience of ten years ago shows the folly of such a measure. Let's hope the BoT has learnt that lesson, at the very least.

What seems artificial to me is the current Exchange Rate of the Baht.

In the last few months we've had terrorism in the south, bombings in the capital, a coup, daily wrangling in front of the media of the World over Thaksin's activities and speeches, corruption scandals, evasion of Tax scandals, 30% holding tax one day and mostly withdrawn a day later, rule changes for Foreign controlled companies.

I fail to see how the Baht has strengthened against major currencies such as the GBP, Euro US $.

Maybe these three currency zones should change to "don't try to do sound economic policies, just go for instability on ALL fronts to prop up your currencies values

Seriously, I don't think I will EVER understand economics after this. I thought I understood basic fundamentals but clearly I was being presumptive

Now I am totally confused over the logic

Regards

Dave

[papakapbaan]

Or indeed, whether in fact there are speculators at all.

If not speculation, what could explain such rapid changes in value?

Distortions in the market caused by the BOT itself with its 30% reserve rule? (Is it what the BOT seems to say now?)

Some posters said that speculators smelt blood with the 30% reserve rule (inept BOT). I think it's likely.

Anyway!

I think the question now is: what will be the next move from the BOT/Thai governement?

What about a drastic DEVALUATION?

Does it really matter that technically it's not a "devaluation"? (Since the currency is not pegged, OK. The currency may not be pegged, it is "closely monitored", let's say.)

What could the BOT do with the potential to drastically devaluate the Baht (with the simple meaning: to cause a reduction of value) because they are pushed in the corner by speculators and/or by natural market mechanisms (even by natural market mechanisms only).

(Do they have the means?)

Strong exports and tourism are the main economic engines now. They could do silly things!

Again: is it safe to keep your Baht next week?? ;-0

(Hopefully they don't have the means?)

(BOTTOM LINE: I'm quite bored with/very exhausted by the ROLLER COASTER of Life in The LOS!! ;-(

[reddevil_06510]

Back up to 34.25 It would be interesting to know who these speculators are.

Or indeed, whether in fact there are speculators at all. The quote from Phatra Securities says it all:

A recent Phatra Securities report questioned the effectiveness of the capital-control policy.

"The authorities' attempts to stabilise or weaken the baht may have only a limited impact, because the underlying cause of the baht's strength, in our view, is that Thailand is exporting too much. That is, Thailand cannot find ways to use the foreign exchange it earns," said the report.

More likely the baht is rising due to fundamental reasons, not speculation.

The implication here that exports are driving the baht is wrong.... when you look at the export numbers that come out they are always listed in USD so it is a fallacy to say that exports are rising.

To paraphrase, the goverment reported a 16% increase in exports through November 2006, while the Baht appreciated 12% against the greenback in the same period.

While I am not directly involved in the export business I know a number of top executives who are and the Baht appreciation is hurting their businesses, especially when the Baht is grown at a much faster rate than the currencies of Vietnam and China.

I would be interested to hear the opinions of any members who own export businesses on how the Baht is affecting their competitiveness.

[OlRedEyes]

Baht devaluation, here we come!

devaluation? how many bottles of Chang today?

None and I will remind you of your post at a later date, probably sooner than later!

"All this may be the prelude to a new devalution"?

If the baht is 'devalued' that would require setting an artificial exchange rate. The experience of ten years ago shows the folly of such a measure. Let's hope the BoT has learnt that lesson, at the very least.

What seems artificial to me is the current Exchange Rate of the Baht.

In the last few months we've had terrorism in the south, bombings in the capital, a coup, daily wrangling in front of the media of the World over Thaksin's activities and speeches, corruption scandals, evasion of Tax scandals, 30% holding tax one day and mostly withdrawn a day later, rule changes for Foreign controlled companies.

I fail to see how the Baht has strengthened against major currencies such as the GBP, Euro US $.

Maybe these three currency zones should change to "don't try to do sound economic policies, just go for instability on ALL fronts to prop up your currencies values

Seriously, I don't think I will EVER understand economics after this. I thought I understood basic fundamentals but clearly I was being presumptive

Now I am totally confused over the logic

Regards

Dave

There does seem to be a small piece of information that's missing, or hidden.

[Naam]

now 1 million baht = 35000 usd

rare but quite interesting mathematics

[sriracha john]

1,000,000.00 THB Thailand Baht = 29,835.61 USD United States Dollars

Help!!!

[Ricardo]

10.00 AM

Nationwide rate is 65.23=£1

To buy or not to buy

Just needs Chavalit to join the CNS and back to 90=£1....if only

Just changed 10,000 baht with my Nationwide Debit Card in Thailand. Rate = 69.97.

Any ideas what rate is being given when sending sterling from your bank in the UK under 20,000 USD?

Ordered a transfer of £10,000.00, from HSBC-Jersey early on Thursday-morning, which they would action hopefully on Thursday-morning (European time), and have now received 701,255 into my SCB-A/C in Chiang-Mai. So I got 70.1255. Guess I was very lucky.

[teej]

now 1 million baht = 35000 usd

rare but quite interesting mathematics

good lord... somebody needs simple mathematics refresher course...

[Maestro]

So I got 70.1255.

70.1755, more precisely, if you take into account the THB 500 fee deducted by SCB before crediting your account. Ask your bank for the print-out of the credit note for full details.

And yes, I guess you were lucky. But check Monday’s rate on the SCB site before opening the champagne

--

Maestro

[solo siam]

Isn't that above 20,000 US$ now, though?

[meom]

The rising Baht movement has less to do with the Yuan than mere speculation from large stocktraders and multinationals buying 'cheap' Thai stocks and therefore need Baht.

But, if the Baht gets too expensive there's no need anymore to buy Baht/stock since the difference will find a level that the stockbuyers will sell the stocks (again)....take profit and leave the Baht (again)....

than what ?

I try to understand a bit about financial markets etc so could you explain this because it don't make sense to me. If stockbuyers sell the stocks again somebody must be buying right? otherwise how they can sell it. I suppose the buyer also needs baht again to pay for the stocks or not?

[LaoPo]

The rising Baht movement has less to do with the Yuan than mere speculation from large stocktraders and multinationals buying 'cheap' Thai stocks and therefore need Baht.

But, if the Baht gets too expensive there's no need anymore to buy Baht/stock since the difference will find a level that the stockbuyers will sell the stocks (again)....take profit and leave the Baht (again)....

than what ?

I try to understand a bit about financial markets etc so could you explain this because it don't make sense to me. If stockbuyers sell the stocks again somebody must be buying right? otherwise how they can sell it. I suppose the buyer also needs baht again to pay for the stocks or not?

Of course, you're right; whenever someone is selling there must a a buyer.

I should have written in my last sentence: "take profit -or loss- and leave the Baht (again)"

And: yes, the buyer needs Baht also to buy Thai stocks.

But Institutional stock buyers always buy the larger company-stocks for which there are always buyers and sellers, wether local or international; wether cheap or (too) expensive,

The International Institutions always buy cheap (they have their limits) whilst smaller -private- buyers buy expensive in many cases.

Here is an interesting article about Thai stocks from December 22, 2006:

http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2006/dec/2006_dec_22.asp

An excerpt:

" Baron von Rothschild grew his wealth by following his famous saying, “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” It’s when uncertainty is the greatest that assets are the cheapest.

That’s exactly where we are in Thailand now... only we need to modify Rothschild’s maxim just a bit. It happened to be a bloodless coup... but we have bras in the streets. "

EDIT:

I might as well add this article:

Thailand: An Extraordinary Story of Stability November 18 - 2006

http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2006/nov/2006_nov_18.asp

excerpt:

The currency has been rising so fast that the central bank has been trying to talk it down.

Thailand is still a cheap country, but it is now much more expensive than its southern neighbor Malaysia. The fact that the Thai baht has risen strongly when other Asian currencies have not is a cause for concern. Most countries want to have a cheap currency policy — this is one reason why I am bullish on gold over the longer term — and don't want their currencies to become too strong.

However, it is not clear what the Thais can do to make their currency fall. They have a historically open economy, again unlike all of its neighbors.

For these reasons of stability, openness, and cheapness, I remain long-term bullish on Thailand.

This was written on November 18th !

LaoPo

Edited January 27, 2007 by LaoPo

[meom]

But Institutional stock buyers always buy the larger company-stocks for which there are always buyers and sellers, wether local or international; wether cheap or (too) expensive,

The International Institutions always buy cheap (they have their limits) whilst smaller -private- buyers buy expensive in many cases.

So in theory we can expect International Institutions to sell their stock somewhere next week, giving them plenty of baht which if invested again in dollar stocks or other currency will depreciate the baht?

[LaoPo]

But Institutional stock buyers always buy the larger company-stocks for which there are always buyers and sellers, wether local or international; wether cheap or (too) expensive,

The International Institutions always buy cheap (they have their limits) whilst smaller -private- buyers buy expensive in many cases.

So in theory we can expect International Institutions to sell their stock somewhere next week, giving them plenty of baht which if invested again in dollar stocks or other currency will depreciate the baht?

If I would only know......I wouldn't tell anyone.

But, the Institutions aren't panicking, they usually don't and just remain calm and wait for the right opportunity.

If that's next week?

Nobody knows.

LaoPo