Stop Press ! Stop Press Baht Rises

[meom]

If I would only know......I wouldn't tell anyone.

But, the Institutions aren't panicking, they usually don't and just remain calm and wait for the right opportunity.

If that's next week?

Nobody knows.

LaoPo

We'll just have to see. I ain't panicking either. Unlike Mrs Meom who's been eating her heart out the last couple of months. She's pegged at anything above 25 to the dollar so she's starting to worry and might look for greener pastures elsewhere

[gibsongk55]

This sucks... maybe too many farang spending too much money in this country. I just took money out via atm yesterday at a rate of 33.20 B for USD.

Must be time to move.

Gibs

[LaoPo]

This sucks... maybe too many farang spending too much money in this country. I just took money out via atm yesterday at a rate of 33.20 B for USD.

Must be time to move.

Gibs

If this is true (and I have no reason not to believe you) it means that the 'Onshore' and 'Offshore' rates are now the same.

That's serious stuff....

I'm very curious what's going to happen on Monday now.

LaoPo

[jumbo]

If this is true (and I have no reason not to believe you) it means that the 'Onshore' and 'Offshore' rates are now the same.

LaoPo

Obviously he is not using a onshore bank....how else does he know the rate

It also depends if and how his bank charges costs for taking out the foreing currency

are they included in the transaction?? and howmuch did he take out???

rate now 35.64

J

[LaoPo]

Obviously he is not using a onshore bank....how else does he know the rate

I wasn't talking about an onshore/offshore bank; just the rates.

He took money from an ATM. The rate the bank used can be checked thru internet with your own -foreign- bankaccount.

The rate is 33.50 now

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...8/one_month.stm

LaoPo

Edited January 28, 2007 by LaoPo

[srisatch]

10.00 AM

Nationwide rate is 65.23=£1

To buy or not to buy

Just needs Chavalit to join the CNS and back to 90=£1....if only

Just changed 10,000 baht with my Nationwide Debit Card in Thailand. Rate = 69.97.

Any ideas what rate is being given when sending sterling from your bank in the UK under 20,000 USD?

Ordered a transfer of £10,000.00, from HSBC-Jersey early on Thursday-morning, which they would action hopefully on Thursday-morning (European time), and have now received 701,255 into my SCB-A/C in Chiang-Mai. So I got 70.1255. Guess I was very lucky.

Yes, Guess Ricardo was just in time. Interested in the Debit card exchange-I was using a Nationwide Cash Card-you presumably a Visa/Debit Card? So I presume I was given a UK rate, already reflecting Baht apptreciation, while you got the fixed weekend Thai/Visa rate. We'll all see what's on offer tomorrow!

I thought exchange rates were supposed to be based mainly on 'Economic Fundamentals'! Cannot see how Thai 'Fundaments' have changed over 10% in a few days..so it's all speculation I suppose?

[fratton_park]

Rate received versus xe.com displayed rates.

Similar question to last post.

Can anybody explain this?

Today Sunday 28 Jan @ 08.24

I went to an ATM served by the Siam City Bank.

I took out 1000 baht just to check the rates using a Nationwide Debit Card.

On returning home I checked my UK bank (Nationwide on-line) and the sum deducted from my previous balance was £14.39 UK sterling.

This equates to an exchange rate of 69.98 approx.

Yet xe.com Universal Currency Converter

states today Sunday

Live mid-market rates as of 2007.01.28 02:22:05 UTC.

1.00 £ United Kingdom Pounds = 65.6797 THB Thailand Baht

Is this the so-called difference between onshore and offshore rates?

If so can someone explain in layman terms?

I was expecting an exchange rate of 65.67 approx.

Thanks

[PeaceBlondie]

Okay, let me ask: I want to take out 25,000 baht from a local ATM, Bangkok Bank. I can do it today Sunday; or tomorrow, Monday. The money is in my US checking account. Which day should be better?

[reddevil_06510]

Okay, let me ask: I want to take out 25,000 baht from a local ATM, Bangkok Bank. I can do it today Sunday; or tomorrow, Monday. The money is in my US checking account. Which day should be better?

Your best bet is to witdraw today before the markets open.

While there is a chance that the baht will continue to strengthen tomorrow there is an equal chance that the shorts will cash out Friday's gains.

My suggesstion is to go with the devil you know and withdraw today.

[teej]

Okay, let me ask: I want to take out 25,000 baht from a local ATM, Bangkok Bank. I can do it today Sunday; or tomorrow, Monday. The money is in my US checking account. Which day should be better?

While there is a chance that the baht will continue to strengthen tomorrow there is an equal chance that the shorts will cash out Friday's gains.

My suggesstion is to go with the devil you know and withdraw today.

Taking profit on a strengthening baht would indicate a long position rather than a short.

So the corrected advice would have been, "While there is a chance that the baht will continue to strengthen tomorrow there is an equal chance that the longs will cash out Friday's gains."

[Bottlerocket]

The dollar is going down in value. If you measure baht in dollars, then of course it's going to look like the baht is getting stronger. The baht is no longer tied to the dollar. The baht was floated just before the financial crisis of 97. You UKer's are probably getting more dollars to the quid now as well. It's currently at GBP1=US1.959.

The central bank is currently flooding the market with dollars and therefore the value is being driven down. In my opinion it is an intentional manipulation of the US economy to drive it much further and beyond the recession that it's already undergoing. The fed cannot raise rates right now without the stock exchange collapsing and cannot lower them without the dollar bottoming out.

Why would they do this intentionally? You tell me.

[PeaceBlondie]

The central bank is currently flooding the market with dollars and therefore the value is being driven down. In my opinion it is an intentional manipulation of the US economy to drive it much further and beyond the recession that it's already undergoing. The fed cannot raise rates right now without the stock exchange collapsing and cannot lower them without the dollar bottoming out.

Why would they do this intentionally? You tell me.

Shirley, you're not serious? An international conspiracy against the American economy, by the overly busy Dr. Tarisa and her old boss? They have enough fish to fry, enough balls to juggle in the air, without trying to topple the US Federal Reserve.

I will guess that a number of countries, far larger than Thailand, may feel a bit vindictive or unfriendly toward the American superpenis - oops, superpower - lately. No, I just think that the good Dr. Tarisa is sitting with huge piles of dollars - entire rooms full - and thinking that if she just cleans out those rooms, the Thai exporters won't be calling her with such impossible demands. I doubt she has time for doing much else, than selling all those pesky dollars that are cluttering up the bank offices.

[Bottlerocket]

That's the point of the post: Thailand's baht is not rising; the dollar is falling. That decline has nothing to do with Dr. Tarisa and the loads of potentially soon to be worthless dollars amassed in the nation's coffers. Here's an excerpt from a piece on the current situation and, I'm sorry to say, doesn't mention Dr. Tarisa, international conspiracies, frying fish, or the American superpenis. However, on a side note, an internal US conspiracy to abandon the dollar and adopt a currency based upon the Euro for all of North America isn't so far-fetched is it? As we speak, Latin America is calling for a union of nations. In Africa, there already exists the AU. You and I are sitting in the ASEAN region. There are already a myriad of intra-national treaties in place between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Anyhow, here's the excerpt:

Not only does the U.S. owe a net $3 trillion to foreigners, we now pay more in interest overseas than we collect from abroad. Foreigners hold $13 trillion in dollar assets that are at immediate and painful risk to any dollar weakness. Indeed, that volume of liquid assets is just about equal to the total GDP. A 30 percent drop in the dollar, could cost foreign investors an easy $3 trillion in lost purchasing power, not to mention the loss to U.S. citizens who own over $46 trillion in dollar net worth assets. Our leaders must find a way to lower the U.S. Trade Deficit, or risk the dollar losing its unique position as the World’s Reserve Currency. This fact alone warrants the trip to China.

America’s currency problem is a very sad day for the Republic. It used to be that the Federal Reserve policy was set simply with domestic economic policy in mind. In years past, we could virtually ignore the dollar in setting monetary policy because it was totally secure in its role as the World Reserve Currency. But today, because of our country’s profligate fiscal and over-easy monetary policies, the dollar has been undermined so much so that, sadly, it may be no more secure as a store of value than the citizens of Baghdad are, walking the streets.

The Federal Reserve must now be aware that the dollar has held its value on the world exchanges for two reasons: First, compared to the Euro, Yen, or Yuan, America has the highest interest rates by far. We pay carry traders to borrow in Yen at less than one percent and invest in U.S. assets, creating an artificial financial demand; Second, we have winked and have done nothing but talk as the Chinese, Japanese – and the rest of Asia – have manipulated their currencies down to rob America of its factories and keep consumers dumb and happy with artificially low interest rates, and excess consumption. All the while, the Asians have ended up with America’s money.

[OlRedEyes]

No, the problem is the THB is rising against the USD AND the GBP.

[Master of the court]

No, the problem is the THB is rising against the USD AND the GBP.

AND THE YEN, for god sake !!!

[PeaceBlondie]

I just got back from the ATM (Bangkok Bank). 35.75 baht per dollar. And I feel lucky!

[reddevil_06510]

Okay, let me ask: I want to take out 25,000 baht from a local ATM, Bangkok Bank. I can do it today Sunday; or tomorrow, Monday. The money is in my US checking account. Which day should be better?

While there is a chance that the baht will continue to strengthen tomorrow there is an equal chance that the shorts will cash out Friday's gains.

My suggesstion is to go with the devil you know and withdraw today.

Taking profit on a strengthening baht would indicate a long position rather than a short.

So the corrected advice would have been, "While there is a chance that the baht will continue to strengthen tomorrow there is an equal chance that the longs will cash out Friday's gains."

Not really because the shorts are buying in thinking that the BoT will step in... if the BoT does not step in they will jump out and the baht might move back to 34.5 to 35. So in this case a short position is one that is trying to run up the baht before it moves back to 37.

Personally, I think it is headed towards 32 and this is dangerous, because there is no fundamental reason why it should.

Maybe the BoT should bring Greenspan over for the weekend and ask him what he would do. But remember the Bangkok Post from a week before last, "the decision to put in capital controls will be [sic] in 10 years time."

All hail the great leader as the light of their devine knowledge shine through the 5 year plan.

[reddevil_06510]

That's the point of the post: Thailand's baht is not rising; the dollar is falling. That decline has nothing to do with Dr. Tarisa and the loads of potentially soon to be worthless dollars amassed in the nation's coffers. Here's an excerpt from a piece on the current situation and, I'm sorry to say, doesn't mention Dr. Tarisa, international conspiracies, frying fish, or the American superpenis. However, on a side note, an internal US conspiracy to abandon the dollar and adopt a currency based upon the Euro for all of North America isn't so far-fetched is it? As we speak, Latin America is calling for a union of nations. In Africa, there already exists the AU. You and I are sitting in the ASEAN region. There are already a myriad of intra-national treaties in place between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Anyhow, here's the excerpt:

Not only does the U.S. owe a net $3 trillion to foreigners, we now pay more in interest overseas than we collect from abroad. Foreigners hold $13 trillion in dollar assets that are at immediate and painful risk to any dollar weakness. Indeed, that volume of liquid assets is just about equal to the total GDP. A 30 percent drop in the dollar, could cost foreign investors an easy $3 trillion in lost purchasing power, not to mention the loss to U.S. citizens who own over $46 trillion in dollar net worth assets. Our leaders must find a way to lower the U.S. Trade Deficit, or risk the dollar losing its unique position as the World’s Reserve Currency. This fact alone warrants the trip to China.

America’s currency problem is a very sad day for the Republic. It used to be that the Federal Reserve policy was set simply with domestic economic policy in mind. In years past, we could virtually ignore the dollar in setting monetary policy because it was totally secure in its role as the World Reserve Currency. But today, because of our country’s profligate fiscal and over-easy monetary policies, the dollar has been undermined so much so that, sadly, it may be no more secure as a store of value than the citizens of Baghdad are, walking the streets.

The Federal Reserve must now be aware that the dollar has held its value on the world exchanges for two reasons: First, compared to the Euro, Yen, or Yuan, America has the highest interest rates by far. We pay carry traders to borrow in Yen at less than one percent and invest in U.S. assets, creating an artificial financial demand; Second, we have winked and have done nothing but talk as the Chinese, Japanese – and the rest of Asia – have manipulated their currencies down to rob America of its factories and keep consumers dumb and happy with artificially low interest rates, and excess consumption. All the while, the Asians have ended up with America’s money.

Yes the greenback is in a prolonged slump, going on 5+ years.... but the fundemental question here is why is the baht rising so fast? Don't tell me exports becuase when you convert the export amounts (USD) into THB the gains are less than 3%.

So probably a combination of local economies leveraging there cash rich positions at the expense of Thailand's competitiveness, speculation (mostly off-shore and not stock market driven - check the free float of most SET co's the percentage is usually small when compared to other bourses), and certain groups of rich Thai's seeking to manipulate the Baht for their own gain, this is almost a perfect storm especially when you add lagging domestic demand, energy dependence, poor marketing, political instability.

So the question is why the Baht? Why isn't the PHP or the MYR up 8% against the USD over the last 3 months?

[LaoPo]

That's the point of the post: Thailand's baht is not rising; the dollar is falling.

Anyhow, here's the excerpt:

Second, we have winked and have done nothing but talk as the Chinese, Japanese – and the rest of Asia – have manipulated their currencies down to rob America of its factories and keep consumers dumb and happy with artificially low interest rates, and excess consumption. All the while, the Asians have ended up with America’s money.

What an unbelievable crap, the author of this article wrote (not Bottlerocket).

The author (likely from the US) is crying big tears now and blaming the eastern countries for robbing their market ?

What a lot of bul_l.

The US is suffering now because of its decades of acting like a world policeman (knowing best for everyone and costing trillions in many wars) and is receiving the check now.

Well, pay up and start looking in the American mirror for once.

About the rising Baht and falling dollar; think twice because you're mistaken here.

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

Everyone keeps saying this is a dollar issue, but if you look - bht is growing stronger against ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. I repeat ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES.

There is definitely smth going on here.

[wishIwas49]

I posted in another string but hoping to find a response here as well. I literally need to cancel the Bahrain to Baht currency within 20 minutes if I'm going to.

Hello. I'm hoping for some quick feedback from those of you in Thailand now.

I am flying to BKK from Bahrain on Tuesday with T GF. We see on XE.com that the dollar is 33.5 to Baht mid-market. Thai GF is calling folks in BKK now and is being told the dollar is still exchanging at 35.6.

Plan was to change local Bahrain currency to Baht before leaving here, but if it is true that outlets are still exchanging at 35.6 (+/-.1 either way) then it would make sense to bring dollars and change them in Thailand vs. Bahrain currency to Baht. At the amount I'm turning into Baht, the difference is more than 12k Baht in my favor IF 35.6ish is accurate.

Can anyone confirm the window/hand to hand exhange rates in country please?

All the best,

Jay

[LaoPo]

I posted in another string but hoping to find a response here as well. I literally need to cancel the Bahrain to Baht currency within 20 minutes if I'm going to.

Hello. I'm hoping for some quick feedback from those of you in Thailand now.

I am flying to BKK from Bahrain on Tuesday with T GF. We see on XE.com that the dollar is 33.5 to Baht mid-market. Thai GF is calling folks in BKK now and is being told the dollar is still exchanging at 35.6.

Plan was to change local Bahrain currency to Baht before leaving here, but if it is true that outlets are still exchanging at 35.6 (+/-.1 either way) then it would make sense to bring dollars and change them in Thailand vs. Bahrain currency to Baht. At the amount I'm turning into Baht, the difference is more than 12k Baht in my favor IF 35.6ish is accurate.

Can anyone confirm the window/hand to hand exhange rates in country please?

All the best,

Jay

Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow morning.

The Baht can go 2 ways...up or down

My advise ?

Change at little as possible, wether in Bahrain or BKK and see what's happening in the next few weeks.

LaoPo

[wishIwas49]

LaoPo,

Thanks. I went ahead and cancelled the conversion order here, knowing full well and as you kindly pointed out, that it will go one of two ways. Unfortunately, I need to buy a car among other things, within a few days of arriving.

My cut line is 34.7 THB to the dollar, so if it goes to 34.6 or any less than that by Wednesday morning when I arrive BKK, I'll be on the wrong end of the decimal point. Vamos a ver.

Thanks again,

Jay

[pete_r]

Regarding the effect of the strengthening Baht on the Thai exporters, yesterday I had a chance to ask a manager at a large export company (chicken products). He said it can be a problem in the medium term, but for the short term they have an insurance to guarantee them a fixed exchange rate in case of a sudden increase in the Baht value. So they were not worrying yet.

That's from a large company, smaller companies are more vulnerable to currency fluctuations.

[wishIwas49]

I just got back from the ATM (Bangkok Bank). 35.75 baht per dollar. And I feel lucky!

That's useful information for me. Thanks!

[monch]

I tried to add a link on this article yesterday but it didnt work....it helps clarify what is actually going on out there !!

BANGKOK, Thailand: Thailand's capital controls are creating a disparity in the baht's exchange rate, with the currency trading at a much stronger level outside the country than inside.

The baht was trading at 35.855 to the U.S. dollar inside Thailand late Friday, while outside the country — or "offshore" in currency lingo — the baht was trading in the 33.60-33.75 range, about 6 percent stronger.

The disparity has developed due to the lack of supply of baht trading offshore because of controls on foreign capital inflows imposed by the Bank of Thailand in December.

Aiming to stem the baht's surge, the central bank last month imposed a 30 percent withholding deposit on selected capital inflows and penalties on investments held for less than a year.

The withholding means that only investors certain they will be eligible for a timely exemption want to buy baht from an onshore institution. Other investors are left to bid up the limited supply offshore.

The baht's surge offshore prompted exporters to sell the dollar in local markets, but traders believed that the central bank was restraining by buying dollars to counter that.Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase told exporters to be calm, saying it was wrong to think that the strengthening of the baht offshore would affect the exchange rate onshore.

The dual-pricing is evidence that the central bank's capital controls work, she said.

Trading volume offshore has been very light, much lighter than the onshore volume, traders said.

Traders also suspected the central bank of intervening in offshore markets in late trade to take the bid for the dollar off a low of around 33.00 baht to ease the psychological pressure in the onshore market.

Traders said further high volatility is expected offshore over the weekend, due to the lack of baht supply and the lack of any end in sight to the situation, despite the central bank's assurances that the controls are temporary and will be very gradually removed.

[reddevil_06510]

Regarding the effect of the strengthening Baht on the Thai exporters, yesterday I had a chance to ask a manager at a large export company (chicken products). He said it can be a problem in the medium term, but for the short term they have an insurance to guarantee them a fixed exchange rate in case of a sudden increase in the Baht value. So they were not worrying yet.

That's from a large company, smaller companies are more vulnerable to currency fluctuations.

Regarding short-term impact, that might be because a large portion of their orders are through L/C (Letter of Credit) especially if they are a large player. If it is an L/C then the price has already been agreed to and locked in and there might even be a stipulation regarding a large currency swing, but that would depend on the length of the L/C.

The real issue is in the ability to get repeat orders.

Eventhough most large corporate buyers are lazy they also have tight budget controls that they have to meet so if a currency is seen to be appreciating to fast when compared to other options or if it is too volatile there will be an affect on new business.

At the end of the day, currency is usually the last thing that will affect a repeat order, but if a currency is seen as too strong it will have a strong affect on a company's ability to attract new business.

This is why a lot of the large Thai businesses have been agressively investing overseas, Vietnam or China to name a few places, not only to open new markets but to hedge against sluggishness locally.

While this has not been discussed; this could be another cause of the baht's appreciation, as large local firms re-patriate profits from oversees (non-export related) activities.

[wishIwas49]

Thanks. I didn't get the whole off and onshore thing. I guess that would explain why XE.com is saying 33.5 while my GF is hearing 35.6 from friends and family in Thailand.

Just hope it doesn't get below 34.7 by the time I get to BKK on Wednesday!

J

[LaoPo]

LaoPo,

Thanks. I went ahead and cancelled the conversion order here, knowing full well and as you kindly pointed out, that it will go one of two ways. Unfortunately, I need to buy a car among other things, within a few days of arriving.

My cut line is 34.7 THB to the dollar, so if it goes to 34.6 or any less than that by Wednesday morning when I arrive BKK, I'll be on the wrong end of the decimal point. Vamos a ver.

Thanks again,

Jay

Wish you luck wishIwas49 !

About buying a car.....don't be in a rush in the week to come.

My advise ? Postpone buying the car a bit and seek another option like renting or borrowing a car or even public transport for a short while.

It might well be that steps are taken (by the BoT) in order to 'weaken' the Baht in the next week or 2.

In that case you'll safe a lot of money....

And, don't be afraid if the Baht strenghten a little further; she will go down, one way or another.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

Another one in the pipe ? What ? An "exemption" to the capital control decided by BOT in december...

Well actually, it could be 2 : fixed-income securitie and bonds...

This is sureal. Tarisa saying saturday "The baht measure is temporary. We will lift it as soon as the baht stabilises", speaking about new exemptions, while the house is burning (see insane friday regarding exchange rates).

Is she sincere ? Or just want to play "sweet and rozy" to ease the fears of investors ? Or does she really believe that next week everything will go back to normal ?

Central Bank may ease investment rules

(Agencies)

The Bank of Thailand may lift restrictions on foreign investment in fixed-income securities, including long-term bonds, in addition to an announcement on removing curbs on foreign-currency loans it already has announced.

Details of the eased requirements will be announced soon, probably on Monday

"We will also study the possibility of relaxing controls on long-term bonds," central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said on Saturday at a business seminar in Bangkok.

"The baht measure is temporary. We will lift it as soon as the baht stabilises. We will also study the possibility of tracking investors in short- term securities such as commercial paper."

Thailand is seeking to weaken the currency to help prevent prices of exports, which make up 60 per cent of the economy, from rising. The baht rose 16 per cent against the dollar last year, the best performer among 15 Asia-Pacific currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The central bank on Dec. 18 imposed rules requiring local banks to withhold 30 per cent of new foreign funds and penalising investments of less than a year. The measures, aimed to curb speculation on the currency, triggered the steepest slide in the Thai stock market in 16 years.

The rule was abandoned for equity funds a day later, although it remains in place for bonds and real-estate mutual funds.

Companies investing in Thailand will be exempt from the requirement that 30 per cent of their funds borrowed abroad are withheld if the loan is hedged for at least one year, Gov Tarisa told reporters yesterday at a seminar organised by the Agriculture Future Exchange of Thailand.

"If the relaxation of hedged loans is effective in preventing speculation on the baht, the central bank may ease control on investments on long-term bonds," she said at the dinner meeting.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=116368