Thai economy surges: growth in all sectors

[sawadee1947]

Hmmmh, what I heard on the local market that the farmers are complaining about falling prices, rising costs (fertilizer, electricity, petrol aso).

So the average worker will not benefit rom "booming" economy.

What is true that the rich are getting richer...(I wonder if PM or Prawit belong already to the rich????)

[simoh1490]

7 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

Hmmmh, what I heard on the local market that the farmers are complaining about falling prices, rising costs (fertilizer, electricity, petrol aso).

So the average worker will not benefit rom "booming" economy.

What is true that the rich are getting richer...(I wonder if PM or Prawit belong already to the rich????)

Which is why people are leaving the algricultural sector completely.

[GarryP]

1 minute ago, Aforek said:

Why do you think economy will be better with an elected government ?

An environment more conducive to direct investment. Investors tend to shy away from investing in countries which are to all intents and purposes run in a way that I am not allowed to state on this forum. Hope you get the inference. 

 

As for local industry/business,  a lot of the really big players are active back scratchers and directly offering their "support" to those in power. Look which companies are benefiting from the EEC. Doesn't give much of a chance to the smaller players.  I guess what I am trying to say is that while the economy may be good, the people actually directly benefiting are limited in number.  I like to believe that under an elected government there would be more of a focus on spreading development around so that more people can benefit. Decentralization, both politically and commercially such that the economy in the provinces is improving at the same rate.   

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, GarryP said:

An environment more conducive to direct investment. Investors tend to shy away from investing in countries which are to all intents and purposes run in a way that I am not allowed to state on this forum. Hope you get the inference. 

 

As for local industry/business,  a lot of the really big players are active back scratchers and directly offering their "support" to those in power. Look which companies are benefiting from the EEC. Doesn't give much of a chance to the smaller players.  I guess what I am trying to say is that while the economy may be good, the people actually directly benefiting are limited in number.  I like to believe that under an elected government there would be more of a focus on spreading development around so that more people can benefit. Decentralization, both politically and commercially such that the economy in the provinces is improving at the same rate.   

Statistically and historically the level of FDI remains broadly similar YOY regardless of the type of government in power, civilian or military:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-direct-investment

[bkk6060]

26 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

Hmmmh, what I heard on the local market that the farmers are complaining about falling prices, rising costs (fertilizer, electricity, petrol aso).

So the average worker will not benefit rom "booming" economy.

What is true that the rich are getting richer...(I wonder if PM or Prawit belong already to the rich????)

Sounds like the farmers in the USA.

I think you are wrong the "average worker" will benefit with more job opportunities.

Edited May 21, 2018 by bkk6060

[peperobi]

From where those peoples got the numbers? Everywhere in Thailand is looking at all the business are slowing down.

[bkk6060]

57 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have two questions that I hope members can assist with; I am a little weak on the economic side...

 

How much of the current economic growth is due to Thai government spending? By all accounts (which are a bit shady due to lack of transparency) the Junta is blowing through money at an alarming rate. I have seen plenty of articles that state that reserves are being used up, etc etc etc but, I am not knowledgeable. 

 

Any comments? If the above is correct, isn't that unsustainable?

 

Secondly, where is the money going? I will assume a certain amount of economic growth as lying by much is deeply frowned upon internationally; Thailand is not a big enough economy to lie about economics too often, so I'll assume that there is growth. Who exactly is getting the money? It is anecdotal, but as I look around my island, I see the money going to the large, usually Bangkok-owned, hotels and very little going into the pockets of the little guy. By all accounts, I suspect something similar is going on to one degree or another all over the country; this weekend I saw a stat which stated that rural income dropped between 2015 and 2017.

 

Soooooo, who is getting the money? Is it all big business? Is the little guy getting any?

 

Any and all comment welcome...

 

 

There are large infrastructure projects going on all over this country.

Korat, Khon Kean, Chiang Mai to name a few. Every place I go they are working on something and many of the smaller provinces have big projects lots of money being spent.

 

Not sure what you mean by the little guy.  Lots of jobs out there for the little guy if they want to work.

[Cadbury]

23 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have two questions that I hope members can assist with; I am a little weak on the economic side...

 

How much of the current economic growth is due to Thai government spending? By all accounts (which are a bit shady due to lack of transparency) the Junta is blowing through money at an alarming rate. I have seen plenty of articles that state that reserves are being used up, etc etc etc but, I am not knowledgeable. 

 

Any comments? If the above is correct, isn't that unsustainable?

 

Secondly, where is the money going? I will assume a certain amount of economic growth as lying by much is deeply frowned upon internationally; Thailand is not a big enough economy to lie about economics too often, so I'll assume that there is growth. Who exactly is getting the money? It is anecdotal, but as I look around my island, I see the money going to the large, usually Bangkok-owned, hotels and very little going into the pockets of the little guy. By all accounts, I suspect something similar is going on to one degree or another all over the country; this weekend I saw a stat which stated that rural income dropped between 2015 and 2017.

 

Soooooo, who is getting the money? Is it all big business? Is the little guy getting any?

 

Any and all comment welcome...

 

I may be of some help with your first question by sending this link which gives a different spin on how the Thai economy is going and where it is headed and the reasons why. It is an interesting read and is headed:

Thai junta's slow investment spending could drag on growth.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy/thai-juntas-slow-investment-spending-could-drag-on-growth-idUSKCN1IE13D

 

There seems to be some variance and selective emphasis between what the government’s National Economic and Social Development Board report says and what other leading economists have to say. My only comment is that maybe government investment spending has taken a hit because of other large budget items like the expensive populist Thai Niyom scheme and the costs of the junta's election campaign.

 

 

[Cadbury]

38 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Which is why people are leaving the algricultural sector completely.

For your information without comment. An interesting read.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy/thai-juntas-slow-investment-spending-could-drag-on-growth-idUSKCN1IE13D

[GarryP]

36 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Statistically and historically the level of FDI remains broadly similar YOY regardless of the type of government in power, civilian or military:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-direct-investment

Yes, I read that. Which seems to smack in the face the perception that foreign investors do not invest under military regimes. Having said that, I personally know of two large companies who upped stakes and moved elsewhere since the military took over.  

[toybits]

Coffee shops closing, barbershop complaining of low customer numbers, restaurant across the street from wife's shop really quiet, everyone else saying business is bad. BUT the government says the economy is good and booming so - it must be BOOMING.

[Samui Bodoh]

18 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

I may be of some help with your first question by sending this link which gives a different spin on how the Thai economy is going and where it is headed and the reasons why. It is an interesting read and is headed:

Thai junta's slow investment spending could drag on growth.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy/thai-juntas-slow-investment-spending-could-drag-on-growth-idUSKCN1IE13D

 

There seems to be some variance and selective emphasis between what the government’s National Economic and Social Development Board report says and what other leading economists have to say. My only comment is that maybe government investment spending has taken a hit because of other large budget items like the expensive populist Thai Niyom scheme and the costs of the junta's election campaign.

 

 

Thanks Mr C! I saw that article a few days ago and it is interesting reading.

 

My question is a bit different and I think the problem is more that I am not sure how to ask it properly. Let me have another go.

 

The level of spending under the Junta seems never-ending and always rising; new projects are announced again and again and again. I wonder how Thailand can afford the sheer number of government-funded projects that are currently underway? When I think back to previous times in country, I don't recall this same level of frenzied activity. So, are these projects affordable? Are they going to contribute to the economic future of Thailand? Why is the Junta able to have so many projects when previous governments could not? Taking into account the Thai Niyom project, the increase in military spending, the increase(s) given to bureaucrats, the increase in rail, the cost of the submarines, etc etc etc... 

Where is all this money coming from? How come previous governments could not spend at the same level? And as in my previous post, is it sustainable or are the Junta spending with reckless abandon? I am still waiting for a good answer.

 

Further, I still don't seem to have an answer to the second part; perhaps it is too difficult a question.

 

Who is getting all this money? On my island, I see local shops and restaurants closing while I read that (non-Samui owned) hotels are doing well. I read in the papers that the economy is doing well, but that rural incomes are going down. I see consumer confidence figures are either stagnant or falling, yet the government claims that the economy is rapidly improving.

 

Something here does not add up. 

 

Is Thailand doing well? Or is it simply the already rich getting richer (more than usual)?

 

 

 

 

[bkk6060]

18 minutes ago, toybits said:

Coffee shops closing, barbershop complaining of low customer numbers, restaurant across the street from wife's shop really quiet, everyone else saying business is bad. BUT the government says the economy is good and booming so - it must be BOOMING.

Where?  Some rural spot in no mans land?

A handful of over saturated type businesses is not a good indicator of a countries economy.

They probably had a poor business model.  If in fact they even know what that is.

Probably walk down the street and get that haircut or coffee for half the price.

[KiwiKiwi]

5 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Where?  Some rural spot in no mans land?

A handful of over saturated type businesses is not a good indicator of a countries economy.

They probably had a poor business model.  If in fact they even know what that is.

Probably walk down the street and get that haircut or coffee for half the price.

 

Business model? Hahahahahahahahaha.

 

You have to be joking, this is Thailand, if you're too hopeless to get a job or an education and the local ricefields are also suffering, then open a shop. Or, better yet, get to know a visiting farang, promise undying love and unlimited nookie and get him to open one, with his money. Do as a couple of tartes in my village do, bleed the Aussie/German dry while he visits, then go back to their Thai boyfriend/mengda when he goes back to earn more money for you to steal.

 

Nature of the beast. Not pretty but real.

[Black arab]

Well ive been reading for a few years now how the thai economy is improving quarter on quarter year on year.We never seem to have anything like bad news as far as the economy is concerned where as the uk rarely has good news.Is it all true here in los , well im not an expert in economics ,so who knows the truth.

[bkk6060]

7 minutes ago, Black arab said:

Well ive been reading for a few years now how the thai economy is improving quarter on quarter year on year.We never seem to have anything like bad news as far as the economy is concerned where as the uk rarely has good news.Is it all true here in los , well im not an expert in economics ,so who knows the truth.

10 years ago the UK was good.

Now it is not good. Sad, I use to love going to London but last time hardly anyone spoke English and the place has been taken over by Muslims.

Every person I know in the US stopped going there.  It is dieing a slow death.

The truth is Thailand is on the rise tourism flourishing the economy not trickle down.

Edited May 21, 2018 by bkk6060

[simoh1490]

46 minutes ago, GarryP said:

Yes, I read that. Which seems to smack in the face the perception that foreign investors do not invest under military regimes. Having said that, I personally know of two large companies who upped stakes and moved elsewhere since the military took over.  

What you can't see from that graph is the shift in FDI from investing in business here and investing in government bonds and the SET, the latter has been the main focus of FDI in recent years.

[simoh1490]

46 minutes ago, toybits said:

Coffee shops closing, barbershop complaining of low customer numbers, restaurant across the street from wife's shop really quiet, everyone else saying business is bad. BUT the government says the economy is good and booming so - it must be BOOMING.

Thailand is saturated with small businesses such as the ones you describe, there are simply far too many of them because it takes no brains and very little money to open one. Of course, those businesses fail, they fail in the thousands every year. Is that a reflection of the Thai economy? Not even close.

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

For your information without comment. An interesting read.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy/thai-juntas-slow-investment-spending-could-drag-on-growth-idUSKCN1IE13D

Yes, that's a very good article, thanks for posting it. I don't know how to feel about the comparison with other countries in ASEAN, I'm not convinced that's at all relevant since Thailand has performed consistently well over many years whereas some other ASEAN countries are something of a Jonnie come lately in many respects.

[metisdead]

Troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[Jeremy50]

7 hours ago, BEVUP said:

& electricity use

Power must of went up

Just got a bill 3200 Bht (not complaining ), but have done nothing different

Last mth 3000

Mth before 2800 bht as this had been the norm for many a month, now they're hitting 3000 + 

Wow, you must be one of those people that have to sleep with the air con on all night. Either that, or someone is charging you 8 baht a unit.

 

[Lucky mike]

Pigs fuelled !

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

 

The level of spending under the Junta seems never-ending and always rising; new projects are announced again and again and again. I wonder how Thailand can afford the sheer number of government-funded projects that are currently underway? When I think back to previous times in country, I don't recall this same level of frenzied activity. So, are these projects affordable? Are they going to contribute to the economic future of Thailand? Why is the Junta able to have so many projects when previous governments could not? Taking into account the Thai Niyom project, the increase in military spending, the increase(s) given to bureaucrats, the increase in rail, the cost of the submarines, etc etc etc... 

Where is all this money coming from? How come previous governments could not spend at the same level? And as in my previous post, is it sustainable or are the Junta spending with reckless abandon? I am still waiting for a good answer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes the above seems to be a mystery. So the foreign currency reserves are controlled by the BOT and the government cannot access them? I don't know about that. 

[simoh1490]

10 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Yes the above seems to be a mystery. So the foreign currency reserves are controlled by the BOT and the government cannot access them? I don't know about that. 

A previous government did try and the head of BOT, Tarisa, was very quickly supported publically by the monarch...do your research on this, they are ring fenced.

[observer90210]

With the THB getting stronger lately (or maybe some foreign curriencies getting weaker), if they want Thai exports to soar, someting must be done to make the THB more realistic.

 

Something like at least THB 35,- to THB 40,- for 1 US$ would be win win situation for all.

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

A previous government did try and the head of BOT, Tarisa, was very quickly supported publically by the monarch...do your research on this, they are ring fenced.

Previous government suggest to start a SWF with the country reserve. IMF also make that suggestion to Somkid recently. 

[Baerboxer]

8 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Just thinking how much more economic growth if Thailand under an elected government. 

 

Don't tax yourself. That would depend on the caliber of that elected government. 

 

 

[Baerboxer]

20 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

With the THB getting stronger lately (or maybe some foreign curriencies getting weaker), if they want Thai exports to soar, someting must be done to make the THB more realistic.

 

Something like at least THB 35,- to THB 40,- for 1 US$ would be win win situation for all.

 

Yes, but the strong baht, strong against USD, GBP and Euro suits the elite class who have been busy expanding their empires overseas through acquisitions. Should they decide exports now need a boost then it will weaken. Uncanny correlation. 

[jakethepeg]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

You overemphasise the role of bargirls with foreign sponsors whilst mentioning nothing of the socioeconomic options available to many rural people. The fact is there are not many options available to poor and mostly uneducated rural families, working for a large corporation is not an option, working in any company is not an option unless they are young and the family is connected, working in government is not an option unless degree'ed. That leaves 7/11, a stall somewhere, the fields in the scorching sun or Beach Road and similar. Having a business of their own is nirvana for most so they will do anything to try and make it successful.

And yes they should stick to chicken soup stalls. Calculating chicken and rice bought and sold isn't rocket science, no electricity, no phones, no rent ... But get one of them to open a hairdresser without spending all of the takings from day one is another story . A 7/11 has a better chance since they are buying into a franchise model along with all the training that goes with it..bit like maccas really

Edited May 21, 2018 by jakethepeg

[Eric Loh]

3 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Don't tax yourself. That would depend on the caliber of that elected government. 

 

 

Taxing to compute when there are more and longer tenure of military government over elected. Only one last the full tenure enough to made judgement. Those were good years.