Economy surges: growth in all sectors

By The Nation

 

 

Growth in the Thai economy has accelerated, reaching 4.8 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018.

 

The government’s National Economic and Social Development Board, releasing its quarterly economic report on Monday, said this was the highest growth rate in 20 quarters.

 

The surge was driven by exports (valued at US$61.78 billion, up 9.9%), consumption (3.6%), private investment (3.1%) and public investment (4%).

 

The NESDB is now forecasting full year growth for 2018 of between 4.2 and 4.7%.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30345902

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-05-21

& electricity use

Power must of went up

Just got a bill 3200 Bht (not complaining ), but have done nothing different

Last mth 3000

Mth before 2800 bht as this had been the norm for many a month, now they're hitting 3000 + 

And then everyone woke up.

Thanks to the PM?............................

21 minutes ago, webfact said:

The government’s National Economic and Social Development Board... said

This is the important bit...

1 minute ago, KiwiKiwi said:

This is the important bit...

I think this is the important part: "this was the highest growth rate in 20 quarters".

Just thinking how much more economic growth if Thailand under an elected government. 

26 minutes ago, webfact said:

Economy surges: growth in all sectors

I guess this means the trough is full!

7 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I think this is the important part: "this was the highest growth rate in 20 quarters".

 

It would be for me too. If I believed a word of it.

 

Thais lie cheat and steal, and Thai government officials think the armed forces shouldn't be the only ones with pretty uniforms and campaign ribbons. Prayuth is known to be a liar and is interested only in perpetuating his own hegemony. Therefore he will tell or cause to be told, whatever lies are necessary to fool the proles - largely uneducated Thais with a smattering of gullible visa-dependent foreigners who are mostly here for the cheap beer and sex.

 

Call me a cynic but I don't believe one word of it.

If it can grow to that level despite the incompetent junta (read idiots) running the country, just think how good the economy would be with an elected government in power.  

40 minutes ago, BEVUP said:

& electricity use

Power must of went up

Just got a bill 3200 Bht (not complaining ), but have done nothing different

Last mth 3000

Mth before 2800 bht as this had been the norm for many a month, now they're hitting 3000 + 

That is normal, your entering the hot season my bills go up then too.

7 minutes ago, GarryP said:

If it can grow to that level despite the incompetent junta (read idiots) running the country, just think how good the economy would be with an elected government in power.  

YL had almost zero growth at times (not blaming her for it), personally I think governments can't do much about the economy they can help a bit but most depends on the world economy. That is just my opinion because back in my country we had competent governments and they had problems increasing the economy too. However when the world economy went up.. ours went up too. 

 

In my opinion goverments can influence it just a little bit the rest is up to external factors. I could be wrong of course it wont be the first time. 

well the USD versus Thai baht has gone up a bit.

32 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

It would be for me too. If I believed a word of it.

 

Thais lie cheat and steal, and Thai government officials think the armed forces shouldn't be the only ones with pretty uniforms and campaign ribbons. Prayuth is known to be a liar and is interested only in perpetuating his own hegemony. Therefore he will tell or cause to be told, whatever lies are necessary to fool the proles - largely uneducated Thais with a smattering of gullible visa-dependent foreigners who are mostly here for the cheap beer and sex.

 

Call me a cynic but I don't believe one word of it.

You probably think that THB is manipulated and that's why it's so strong, that being the case we have nothing to discuss on the subject of economics.

46 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Just thinking how much more economic growth if Thailand under an elected government. 

So exports are variable and dependent on the type of government, elected or not......I never knew that!!!

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You probably think that THB is manipulated and that's why it's so strong, that being the case we have nothing to discuss on the subject of economics.

 

Indeed.Nothing really to discuss, but I don't agree the THB is manipulated, that's just silly. Voodoo economics.

 

Still,  your choice.

6 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You probably think that THB is manipulated and that's why it's so strong, that being the case we have nothing to discuss on the subject of economics.

No, not really, but I do agree there isn't much to talk about: a true believer versus a cynic. Recipe for frustration.

Hmmm so TAT can relax we dont need all those tourists!

Any time the Thai Government uses numbers, it is telling lies

3 hours ago, BEVUP said:

& electricity use

Power must of went up

Just got a bill 3200 Bht (not complaining ), but have done nothing different

Last mth 3000

Mth before 2800 bht as this had been the norm for many a month, now they're hitting 3000 + 

Warm weather, maybe?

Ventilator, shower, airco, etc?

Prices are still the same.

2 hours ago, robblok said:

YL had almost zero growth at times (not blaming her for it), personally I think governments can't do much about the economy they can help a bit but most depends on the world economy. That is just my opinion because back in my country we had competent governments and they had problems increasing the economy too. However when the world economy went up.. ours went up too. 

 

In my opinion goverments can influence it just a little bit the rest is up to external factors. I could be wrong of course it wont be the first time. 

There's a lot of truth in that, export markets are external to Thailand and the government has no control of their economies. Where the government can influence is by ensuring those markets remain as diverse as possible therefore spreading the risk across the economies of many different countries worldwide.

 

The same is broadly true for tourism, successful tourism is reliant on arrivals from as many different countries as possible and Thailand is very good at creating that diversity, it started with the Japanese, then Amerricans and the Brits, Europeans quickly followed and then Arab countries, India, Australia and even Russia. So even when the Russians departed that void was filled numerically by arrivals from other countries, Africa being one of them.

2 hours ago, GarryP said:

If it can grow to that level despite the incompetent junta (read idiots) running the country, just think how good the economy would be with an elected government in power.  

Like with YL?

You really think world economy gives a hoot about Parliament being elected or not.

Because, sir, a government is hardly ever elected, but formed after parliamentary elections.

That government is largely dependent on the world's economy, and can only do marginal things.

If you really think an elected Parliament and it's governmental ministers would have done better, feel free to think so.

But all in all, the government of the day didn't do badly, seen all the countries willing to trade with Thailand, and that certainly is not only China.

 

Great news watches all round.

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Just thinking how much more economic growth if Thailand under an elected government. 

 

3 hours ago, GarryP said:

If it can grow to that level despite the incompetent junta (read idiots) running the country, just think how good the economy would be with an elected government in power.  

Exporters don't care which government is in power, they don't even care if there's no government and there are tanks on the streets on Bangkok and snipers are killing people on Silom! Exporters will export regardless and there will be no more or no less regardless of which party is in power.

I have two questions that I hope members can assist with; I am a little weak on the economic side...

 

How much of the current economic growth is due to Thai government spending? By all accounts (which are a bit shady due to lack of transparency) the Junta is blowing through money at an alarming rate. I have seen plenty of articles that state that reserves are being used up, etc etc etc but, I am not knowledgeable. 

 

Any comments? If the above is correct, isn't that unsustainable?

 

Secondly, where is the money going? I will assume a certain amount of economic growth as lying by much is deeply frowned upon internationally; Thailand is not a big enough economy to lie about economics too often, so I'll assume that there is growth. Who exactly is getting the money? It is anecdotal, but as I look around my island, I see the money going to the large, usually Bangkok-owned, hotels and very little going into the pockets of the little guy. By all accounts, I suspect something similar is going on to one degree or another all over the country; this weekend I saw a stat which stated that rural income dropped between 2015 and 2017.

 

Soooooo, who is getting the money? Is it all big business? Is the little guy getting any?

 

Any and all comment welcome...

 

Edited May 21, 20188 yr by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

4 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Soooooo, who is getting the money? Is it all big business? Is the little guy getting any?

 

I could make an educated guess that the rich get richer and poor can go fish. That's usual for Thailand. As long as the big guy rakes in his commissions, all is well and he will allow the small fish like Prayuth to make a bit - enough to kid himself he's important anyway.

Great!

Things look like they are booming.

Infrastructure projects all over the country.

Toursists flocking here.

Good times for Thailand.

3 hours ago, GarryP said:

If it can grow to that level despite the incompetent junta (read idiots) running the country, just think how good the economy would be with an elected government in power.  

Why do you think economy will be better with an elected government ?

Prayuth cutting and pasting, no doubt. 

6 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have two questions that I hope members can assist with; I am a little weak on the economic side...

 

How much of the current economic growth is due to Thai government spending? By all accounts (which are a bit shady due to lack of transparency) the Junta is blowing through money at an alarming rate. I have seen plenty of articles that state that reserves are being used up, etc etc etc but, I am not knowledgeable. 

 

Any comments? If the above is correct, isn't that unsustainable?

 

Secondly, where is the money going? I will assume a certain amount of economic growth as lying by much is deeply frowned upon internationally; Thailand is not a big enough economy to lie about economics too often, so I'll assume that there is growth. Who exactly is getting the money? It is anecdotal, but as I look around my island, I see the money going to the large, usually Bangkok-owned, hotels and very little going into the pockets of the little guy. By all accounts, I suspect something similar is going on to one degree or another all over the country; this weekend I saw a stat which stated that rural income dropped between 2015 and 2017.

 

Soooooo, who is getting the money? Is it all big business? Is the little guy getting any?

 

Any and all comment welcome...

 

Government spending is a long accepted way of stimulating a country's economy, in the past Thailand has only done that in small amounts but now they have much grander and larger plans. It's not clear to me that much is any of the budgeted money for this has already been spent, despite the raft of news reports about the levels of spending. As for state reserves being used: funding for the government projects does not come from reserves, instead, the government will either issue bonds which will typically be oversubscribed or obtain joint venture financing from the construction partner. Foreign currency reserves currently total about US 210 billion, these are under the control of BOT and not available for the government to spend, not even a military junta. Attached is a link showing the state of some government projects and their funding sources: https://pugnatorius.com/eec-projects/

 

The second part of what you wrote is more interesting, this involves a fundamental shift in Thailands workforce away from agriculture and manufacturing and into service and tourism-related industries, both of which are oversupplied.... too many businesses are chasing the same money sources and many will not survive. The bigger more established businesses will continue to thrive because of brand names and proven track records, as long as tourist numbers hold up, smaller newer names will not.