Prayut’s not just keeping his enemies close, he’s creating them

[webfact]

Prayut’s not just keeping his enemies close, he’s creating them

By Tulsathit Taptim 
The Nation

 

 

Just when we thought nothing could make the upcoming election, and its consequences, more unpredictable, they went ahead and defrocked Phra Buddha Isara.

 

This means that under the controversial regime of Prayut Chan-o-cha, Yingluck Shinawatra, the leader of the “red” camp, had to flee the country after being found guilty of corruption-related dereliction of duty, while one of the leaders of “the other camp” has been arrested, stripped of his monkhood and slapped with weapon robbery charges.

 

The first case did not change a thing, as Prayut would remain immensely unpopular with the red-shirted people no matter what happened to Yingluck. The latter case is highly intriguing, as the ex-monk’s supporters formed a sizeable power base for Prayut.

 

The military-backed prime minister seems to be making enemies left and right. The arrest and defrocking took place amid an outcry over the detention of pro-election activists. For someone accused of wanting to remain politically at the top after the next election, he appears bold, if not crazy.

 

Older generations of anti-Thaksin activists have not been spared either. Key yellow-shirted protesters have been either put behind bars or found guilty of unlawful acts. 

 

Some may defend Prayut’s apparent “neutrality”, though virtually nobody believes his acts will lead to political reconciliation. Others have taken the man to task for turning the already-destructive national polarity into a hate triangle of a massive scale.

 

The siege of the Dhammakaya Temple, whose ex-abbot is still on the run, is another heavily politicised case that brought the local and international spotlights on the Prayut regime.

 

While Dhammakaya has been deeply connected with the Shinawatras, a lot of senior monks who face a government crackdown on corruption or embezzlement are not.

 

Suthep Thaugsuban, who led the anti-Yingluck mass protests in the months before Prayut’s coup, returned to the political limelight recently, with widespread speculation he is ready to lead a new party. Analysts immediately saw a Suthep-Prayut alliance and deemed it a powerful one ahead of the election. That perception has been rocked by the arrest and defrocking of Phra Buddha Isara, who also led anti-Yingluck protests around the same time as Suthep, albeit in a more controversial way.

 

Simply put, Prayut has done what seems to be a textbook example of what not to do if you want to play politics. Yet he is accused of wanting to extend his political hold on power way after the election. What is going on here?

 

The first theory has an idealistic answer. Prayut, goes this theory, wants genuine reform and does not care who likes or dislikes him. That Prayut is being scolded left and right means he must have been doing something good, it says.

 

The second theory sees a politically ambitious Prayut, who’s arrogant and confident of his “real” power, enough to not care whether politicians or activists support him or not. Prayut in this theory is shrewd, stands above “standard politics” that features the standard shifting of alliances. The action against Phra Buddha Isara is part of a multi-level plan of the sort that requires you to sacrifice a key piece in a chess game.

 

The third theory is, on the surface, like the second one. Only it does not rate Prayut’s shrewdness. He is seen as playing standard politics by co-opting some former rivals. He was back-pedalling and the Phra Buddha Isara incident was just a spin intended to distract the public from the plight of arrested “pro-election” activists and created an impression of an unprejudiced agenda.

 

Whether it is the first, or second, or third, theory, Pheu Thai must be smiling. The red camp remains unwaveringly united, whereas “the other side” has been split into groups that could compete against each other for votes. While Yingluck’s “plight” must have solidified support for Pheu Thai, a former monk in prison outfit means anti-Thaksin votes will be divided among estranged parties.

 

Winning the election and being in the next government are different things, though. Barring a massive landslide victory, post-election alliances remain something as unpredictable as ever. To form a government coalition, Pheu Thai will need at least one key ally, without which the party can become one of those election winners who end up in the opposition bloc.

 

There have been talks about a “national government”, which means everyone gets some bit of the cake and there will be no opposition in Parliament. That scenario is unlikely, though not impossible. But whatever pans out – a national coalition, a Prayut-led coalition, a Pheu Thai-led coalition or a Democrat-led coalition – it may require the age-old tactic of divide and rule. Whoever can pull that strategy off will probably emerge the ultimate winner of this power play.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30346557

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-05-30

[Get Real]

41 minutes ago, webfact said:

What is going on here?

Madness, the neverending loss of face fight and the boring truth of incompetence! Feel free to add, if I missed something. 

[Samui Bodoh]

52 minutes ago, webfact said:

The first theory has an idealistic answer. Prayut, goes this theory, wants genuine reform and does not care who likes or dislikes him. That Prayut is being scolded left and right means he must have been doing something good, it says.

 

I'll put 20 Baht on the table; find me someone who actually believes that Prayut sincerely believes in 'reform'.

 

There is more than meets the eye with the arrest of the Mad Monk; something doesn't add up as this is not the 'normal' practice of politics, and when there is an abnormality of this magnitude, there usually is a good reason. 

 

Further, if the Mad Monk is vulnerable to arrest, might Suthep be? Seriously, if there is grounds to arrest one of them, there is certainly grounds to arrest both; exactly what is the difference between their actions? Or will someone come along and say that Suthep's rent-a-mob was wholly peaceful?

 

It is speculation on my part, but I think Prayut has more enemies than he thought; if you were a member of the PTB, wouldn't you get a little worried that the military in general and Prayut in particular were amassing too much power? And, wouldn't you throw a proverbial wrench into the works to deflate them a bit?

 

I'll be watching closely to see if there are more proverbial 'flying wrenches' lofting about in the near future...

 

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Whether it is the first, or second, or third, theory,

or , unmentioned, a fourth theory, that being he doesnt have a clue and is taking his direction from his masters who are radically old school and desire thailand to return to a period before politics

[coulson]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Simply put, Prayut has done what seems to be a textbook example of what not to do if you want to play politics

.......or anything else for that matter.

[bluesofa]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

There is more than meets the eye with the arrest of the Mad Monk

It's the all-singing-all-dancing, Thailand's very own Rasputin 4.0

 

[Darcula]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The military-backed prime minister seems to be making enemies left and right.

 

Just following orders.

[bluesofa]

4 minutes ago, Darcula said:

Just following orders.

If he had a cooking programme like previous PM Samak Sundaravej, then he could claim to be following hors d'oeuvres.

 

[peperobi]

The general is the best examples of "one man government" I say, you do...otherwise...

[Thailand]

Not lost the power~yet!

Lost the plot~sure!

Lost it~ probably.

[Anak Nakal]

It simple.

He not good.

The end.

[Artisi]

Seems he is a "one man dog and pony show", either being played for the fool by "unknown power brokers" or a completely out of control loose canon - neither of which will never get Thailand back on track - unfortunately. 

 

[toybits]

Forming a government is like building a sand castle. Make sure to build it away from the surf. Protect that sand castle from the rude little boy that comes around to trample on your beautiful sand Castle.

[Lupatria]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Prayut has done what seems to be a textbook example of what not to do if you want to play politics.

Reminds a bit on:

"Somchai cut the red cable,- eh wait! No cut the yellow one,- hold it, hold it! Cut both!"

[KiwiKiwi]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

I'll put 20 Baht on the table; find me someone who actually believes that Prayut sincerely believes in 'reform'.

 

There is more than meets the eye with the arrest of the Mad Monk; something doesn't add up as this is not the 'normal' practice of politics, and when there is an abnormality of this magnitude, there usually is a good reason. 

 

Further, if the Mad Monk is vulnerable to arrest, might Suthep be? Seriously, if there is grounds to arrest one of them, there is certainly grounds to arrest both; exactly what is the difference between their actions? Or will someone come along and say that Suthep's rent-a-mob was wholly peaceful?

 

It is speculation on my part, but I think Prayut has more enemies than he thought; if you were a member of the PTB, wouldn't you get a little worried that the military in general and Prayut in particular were amassing too much power? And, wouldn't you throw a proverbial wrench into the works to deflate them a bit?

 

I'll be watching closely to see if there are more proverbial 'flying wrenches' lofting about in the near future...

 

In the meantime, I'm with you about Suthep. That would certainly qualify as 'signs and portents' would it not?

[bluesofa]

18 minutes ago, Lupatria said:

Reminds a bit on:

"Somchai cut the red cable,- eh wait! No cut the yellow one,- hold it, hold it! Cut both!"

And then they found him dead at the bottom of the pole. Oh well, we can dream...

 

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

In the meantime, I'm with you about Suthep. That would certainly qualify as 'signs and portents' would it not?

Suthep and 8 others PDRC leaders have been indicted, out on bail and awaiting trial. They have reported and acknowledged the charges at OAG in January 2018. The charges are serious from insurrection, illegal assembly and obstructing election. Issara was one of the 8 PDRC leaders charged. 

 

There are cracks in the establishment side. The courts have been quite lenient in granting bails to student activists to the annoyance of the junta. The Nation which was recently bought by a right wing establishment has been publishing anti-junta articles in last few days; surprises me. Then the EC recent announcement regarding the legality of charter reform. The RTP also seem to have their own agenda with the tape release of Issara's arrest andVictoria Secret raid. 

[jayboy]

Calm down chaps.It's only Tulsie riffing absurdly as usual.

[BobBKK]

I am delighted Prayut's annoying and upsetting so many people. keep going!

[marko kok prong]

De -frocked,my Lord was he a lady boy as well as a crook.

[Media1]

6 hours ago, Get Real said:

Madness, the neverending loss of face fight and the boring truth of incompetence! Feel free to add, if I missed something. 

inept lies and deicet

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, BobBKK said:

I am delighted Prayut's annoying and upsetting so many people. keep going!

So long as it's to the countries benefit and not a misguided vendetta at the behest of others. 

[sawadeeken]

BE CAREFUL............ And plan wisely.............. this present regime is capable of 'repeating History'.................

How many TV readers are aware of Thailands past????????  Killing hundreds of college students in 'COLD BLOOD'.........

 

It is THAI History and recorded on YouTube.......... Take a few moments to learn what can happen when you want to voice your opinion (in opposition) in 'Military and Police Ruled Nations'..........

Recent mentions of Police with Shields vowing to stop Protestors/Demonstrators in Bangkok......... This present military coup is capable of anything to reduce it's competition for 'control'.........

[observer90210]

No matter who comes after to power, they would need to stop the hassles on visa issues and the general anti foreigner climate that is currently being enforced here and there. Do not forget the chunky money the quality tourists/expats/retirees bring in, should they be from the US, UK, EU, India or China. Give it a thought, boys !

[InfinityandBeyond]

15 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Suthep and 8 others PDRC leaders have been indicted, out on bail and awaiting trial. They have reported and acknowledged the charges at OAG in January 2018. The charges are serious from insurrection, illegal assembly and obstructing election. Issara was one of the 8 PDRC leaders charged. 

 

There are cracks in the establishment side. The courts have been quite lenient in granting bails to student activists to the annoyance of the junta. The Nation which was recently bought by a right wing establishment has been publishing anti-junta articles in last few days; surprises me. Then the EC recent announcement regarding the legality of charter reform. The RTP also seem to have their own agenda with the tape release of Issara's arrest andVictoria Secret raid. 

I have made the same observations that you describe in your second paragraph. 

[candide]

20 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Further, if the Mad Monk is vulnerable to arrest, might Suthep be? Seriously, if there is grounds to arrest one of them, there is certainly grounds to arrest both; exactly what is the difference between their actions? Or will someone come along and say that Suthep's rent-a-mob was wholly peaceful?

You assume here that the reason why the Mad Monk has been arrested is related to the PDRC protests. The mere fact that he has been charged with LM suggests that there are other reasons and that his case is very particular. I think that Suthep, as well as PAD leaders don't need to worry much......

I think the OP's analysis is erronous. The arrest of the Mad Monk has nothing to do with an alleged tentative of the good PM to look neutral. The mad monk has pissed off someone influential, probably by going out of the agreed scenario. Suthep strictly remained inside the limits of the agreed orchestration and has nothing to fear.

Edited May 30, 2018 by candide