‘Asean best-placed to benefit’ from disruption caused by US-China disputes

[webfact]

‘Asean best-placed to benefit’ from disruption caused by US-China disputes  

By SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE 
THE NATION 

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in the White House in October 2017.

 

THAILAND NEEDS to prepare for the negative consequence of the increasing rivalry and conflict between the United States and a rising China, notably from a trade war now building, but might benefit in the long run as Americans increasingly move into the region in search of suppliers and customers.

 

The Thai government and the US Embassy here are mining history as they seek to publicly portray a two-centuries long connection, but scholars say Thailand is not in a clear spot on Washington’s radar screen.

 

The Foreign Ministry and the embassy are this year celebrating the long relations between the two countries but in different time frames.

While the US Embassy marked bicentennial ties this year dating back to 1818 when an American ship docked in the Kingdom for the first time, the Thai government is hailing the signing of the Treaty of Amity and Commerce in 1833 as the beginning of diplomatic ties.

 

Despite the long history, relations between the two countries was considered warmest and closest only during the Cold War when the US intervened in Thailand’s domestic affairs as part of its anti-Communist strategy, Thammasat University historian Thanet Aphornsuvan said.

 

The current administration under Donald Trump has no clear vision about relations with Thailand. Junta chief Prayut Chan-o-cha’s visit to Washington last year may indicate that the current US administration is not concerned any longer about democracy and the human rights situation in Thailand. But, the visit and brief meeting with Trump did not indicate anything else, he said.

 

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand. It seems the current US president has no clear idea about Thailand,” he said. 

 

That assessment is not quite accurate, a US official argued, saying Trump had recently announced an Indo-Pacific strategy that would also cover and impact Thailand. Still, the Trump administration has no clear view on bilateral matters.

 

A strategy to counter China

 

The essence of the Indo-Pacific strategy is the sovereign independence of each state in the region. The strategy also has important economic elements. In part it seeks to increase overall trade with US partners in Southeast Asia, said the deputy assistant to the president and senior director for Asia at the White House, Matt Pottinger.

 

Pottinger was in Thailand a few weeks ago to brief Thai officials on the implementation of the strategy and its possible consequence.

 

The strategy mainly aimed to counter China, which is regarded as a new 21st century superpower capable of competing with the US against a background of a certain level of conflict between the nations.

 

The obvious consequence of the rivalry would be seen in economic matters, said Pottinger.

 

In the near term, there will be disruptions as the US adjusts its economic relationship with China, he said. 

 

In the medium term, the strategy would see new opportunities, with the Asean bloc countries starring in the role of the supply chain to the US and becoming an increasingly attractive market for US goods, and a destination for added investment in the high-tech sector, he said.

 

“We know that the US cannot get fair trade with China. Not a single Internet company has ever succeeded because the barrier is so high. So those companies are going to look and when they shift their gaze a little bit, they look at the region, where Asean alone accounts for a 630-million population of consumers with a young demographic,” he said.

 

From the Thai government’s point of view, a small country like Thailand is not able to strike out on its own in dealing with superpowers like the US, notably when the superpower competes with another big country like China. 

 

“We are not in the position to take sides, but [instead] to deal with and cooperate with everybody for the sake of our own national interest,” said a senior official at the foreign ministry.

 

The reality Thailand has to face is that the US, although its power and influence is in decline, will be the major superpower for the next 20 years, he said.

 

“In the short term, Thailand has to deal with the reality that Trump – who emphasises protectionism and America first – uses US strength to maintain peace and to seek partnerships without caring about ideology,” he said. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/asean-plus/30350593

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-07-23

[ChrisY1]

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand. It seems the current US president has no clear idea about Thailand,” he said. "

Most in the US have no idea where Thailand is....Trump simply has no idea!

Saying ASEAN is the best place where trade with China is concerned may just mean that more Chinese junk will be dumped here.

Edited July 23, 2018 by ChrisY1

[zaphod reborn]

1 hour ago, ChrisY1 said:

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand. It seems the current US president has no clear idea about Thailand,” he said. "

Most in the US have no idea where Thailand is....Trump simply has no idea!

Saying ASEAN is the best place where trade with China is concerned may just mean that more Chinese junk will be dumped here.

Trump is a complete fool.  The largest BMW factory in the world is in South Carolina.  He complains China puts a 40% tariff on BMW's imported from the US, but doesn't realize that Thailand has an 80% tariff.

[Chris Lawrence]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand. It seems the current US president has no clear idea about Thailand,” he said.

He has.

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The reality Thailand has to face is that the US, although its power and influence is in decline, will be the major superpower for the next 20 years, he said.

Probably not.

 

Still knows how to get the picnic basket. China is out there buying the world. The US is saying its now going to cost more. Have the Chinese factored these increase in?

Edited July 23, 2018 by Chris Lawrence

[connda]

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand. It seems the current US president has no clear idea about Thailand,” he said. "
Once the US administration is well aware of the huggge disparity in tariffs leveled by Thailand as opposed to the US - I doubt they are going to benefit. 

Dear Mr. President:  Try to import American made goods into Thailand and the see exactly how outrageous the import tariffs levied on US good are.  Time for quid pro quo.

Edited July 23, 2018 by connda

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

“It is hard to guess what President Trump thinks about Thailand.

Best hope is that Trump confuses Thailand with Taiwan with whom he seems to be very amiable.

[Thaidream]

Trump knows only a few things about Thailand- it has a large trade surplus with the US and it has military bases that the US can potentially use in time of a war-such as with NKorea or even China.

 

The problem with Trump (amongst other things) is he knows little about Thailand's history; how it relates to a grand design and how really important that Thailand can be  to the US.

 

As one poster mentioned- China is trying to buy the World and in Asia it already owns Cambodia; pieces of Laos and Burma . What china continues to seek is Asian domination as it knows that it needs places to purchase agricultural goods and influence governments so as to be able to keep it's citizens docile and employed and the Communist Party in control.

 

Trump is right about China being an existential threat to the US not only militarily but economically. Yet, Trump cancelled the Trans Pacific Partnership which could have led to tariff  free entry of goods and services to Asean and Japan.  Thailand would have come on board and has with what remains of the TPP.  Trump claims he wants to deal bilaterally with countries rather than multilaterally which is a big mistake and takes up too much time.

 

Instead China has come up with the Belt and Road proposal which is the old 'Silk Road' that will facilitate trade with Asia; the India Sub Continent and the Middle East. This initiative leaves America behind.

 

Tariffs will not stop China as they purchase a good percentage of the US debt and are awash in dollars.  Instead, Trump needs Thailand and Asean more than he knows  as America is basically a Pacific country. With allies- he could become a real threat to the Chinese economy and they would have to bend. In addition, a balanced US budget would mean less debt and less chance for China to keep buying it.

 

 

Instead Trump wastes time  kissing the Putin/Russia rump; pissing off   the EU and UK and casting doubt if he would come to the aid of all Nato countries if they were attacked. Let's not forget Article 5 of the Nato alliance has only been invoked once (An attack on one is an attack on all) and that was when America was attacked and British and  Holland forces and planes deployed to the US. Trump seems to forget all these things.

 

The issue  with Trump is while he can articulate a problem area- his solutions are always wrong. He refuses to educate himself  or even believe his own CIA; FBI and State Department who are actually mostly staffed by Americans who are not politically inclined but work for the good of the country. Trump's arrogance refuses to acknowledge- someone else might have a better idea. 

 

Thailand  knows well how to deal with American governments as it always has something America wants and needs- but it needs to walk a fine line with the Chinese- who  may have money; plenty of paying tourists but whose sole goal is to control the Thai agenda.

[DrTuner]

Benefit like Vietnam did when the commies decided to pop by?

[Eric Loh]

Grab the opportunity. Switch rice to soya. Thailand already grow soya with very little for export as most taken up domestically.