UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[bristolboy]

Here's a link to an FT.com article concerning some points possibly overlooked by brexiters in relation to the fishing industry Here are a few excerpts:

... while the Scottish fishing fleet depends relatively little on non-UK waters, the English fleet traditionally catches its fish in Irish, French and Norwegian, as well as UK, waters.

...UK vessels benefit from the right to fish large quantities of cod in north Norwegian waters that are paid for by transfers of other stocks that are mainly of valule to other EU countries.

... the UK fishing industry depends heavily on exports to the EU, so is vulnerable to tariffs. 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/84f51c84-5fe2-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895

[My Thai Life]

21 minutes ago, kwilco said:

You're meant to read them yourself!

The FT is behind a paywall. By the way, the recommended approach is to quote from the article - contrary to what Tebee said it's perfectly acceptable to make a short quote from the article - with a self-written intro, plus a link.

 

A number of posters frequently post links without actually reading the link - this is obvious to those of us who do take the time to research the issues rather than post meaningless one-liners - and frequently the article contradicts what the poster thinks it says.

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

1 minute ago, Patriot1066 said:

I live in North London we are the only English speaking in the whole block. All are EU citizens most on bennefits. I pay for as pay tax. My town apart from the multi nationals all the shops are in foreign languages. I go in local shops and get treated less well than their own people.

 

thats without doctors apointments etc

 

many of us feel alienated it’s not a nice place anymore.

 

 

 

Yes, I have a friend in Wigan- they voted 3-1 to leave and it's the same story.  

 

I'm just not at all sold that our predicament is caused or resolved by Brexit- there's much more to it than that. The debt crisis caused by the 2008 crisis never got tackled in an honest way, house prices are way too high, the economy is unbalanced, global warming poses a real existential threat more than a phoney economic war. 

 

So we leave EU, and nothing much changes because this crap Government has pledged that EU people already here can stay, and possibly vote too (Labour I imagine).

 

Having been oscillating this way and that for the past couple of years, half hoping Brexit would be cancelled, I am now swinging behind Brexit simply because it's a reality, and after all it was voted for.

 

So, now I go in to right wing mode, and probably have to accept that my chosen party (Labour) isn't electable or probably up to the massive challenge ahead- this is no time for anything other than hard capitalism, and b***er a fair fight.  

 

But what is it about the present Government that makes you feel optimistic- I've never known such a shower?  And why do you feel a failed economic model will suddenly enjoy a Lazarus resurrection?

 

 

 

 

[My Thai Life]

More postitive news to raise the doom-mongers' spirits:

 

"Britain’s exporters are ignoring political uncertainty and anticipate steady growth next year on the back of economic growth and the weak pound.

Three-quarters of companies in an HSBC survey said the trade outlook is positive, putting UK firms’ prospects ahead of those in the US and just behind those in France and Germany.

Overall 80pc of British companies said they expect to succeed in the current trade environment, in line with the global average of 81pc."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/01/exporters-upbeat-growth-despite-trade-war-economic-wobbles-brexit/

[tebee]

9 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Here's a link to an FT.com article concerning some points possibly overlooked by brexiters in relation to the fishing industry Here are a few excerpts:

... while the Scottish fishing fleet depends relatively little on non-UK waters, the English fleet traditionally catches its fish in Irish, French and Norwegian, as well as UK, waters.

...UK vessels benefit from the right to fish large quantities of cod in north Norwegian waters that are paid for by transfers of other stocks that are mainly of valule to other EU countries.

... the UK fishing industry depends heavily on exports to the EU, so is vulnerable to tariffs. 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/84f51c84-5fe2-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895

As always Brexit creates more problems than it fixes !

 

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

The FT is behind a paywall. By the way, the recommended approach is to quote from the article - contrary to what Tebee said it's perfectly acceptable to make a short quote from the article - with a self-written intro, plus a link.

 

 

 

 

 

But it's easily bypassed.

[My Thai Life]

26 minutes ago, Patriot1066 said:

I live in North London we are the only English speaking in the whole block. All are EU citizens most on bennefits. I pay for as pay tax. My town apart from the multi nationals all the shops are in foreign languages. I go in local shops and get treated less well than their own people.

 

thats without doctors apointments etc

 

many of us feel alienated it’s not a nice place anymore.

I'm a London guy, but a very long time since I lived there.

 

At the 2011 census, London had a population of 8,173,941: 44.9% were White British, 37% of the population were born outside the UK, including 24.5% born outside of Europe. 

 

And London voted Remain ????

 

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, tebee said:

As always Brexit creates more problems than it fixes !

 

There's also the fact that as far as I'm aware, fish don't need permission to cross into territorial waters..  So if quotas aren't established and enforced, that makes overfishing far more likely. There really is no way around international rules and regulations when it comes to fishing. Whether it's a body of water abutting only one nation or several.

[mommysboy]

For UK (and it could end up being England only) to succeed we will have to go the way of Singapore. I don't believe we'll ever be that right wing and even a Tory government will maintain some form of welfare system, but it's the only strategy that will work when you consider our current talents.  

 

Some comfort for me- I'd love to see us as a dynamic, liberal economy running rings around the sclerotic EU, but make no mistake there is an enormously heavy price to pay.  Spare a thought for the poor!

 

I agree with many that an FTA agreement such as the so called Canada plus is probably the best that can be obtained if we want overseas trade deals.

[mommysboy]

42 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Sorry, I meant out including any "transition" (which I don't see as properly out). 

That's mad. Surely an orderly transition is preferable. 

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

34 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Here's a link to an FT.com article concerning some points possibly overlooked by brexiters in relation to the fishing industry Here are a few excerpts:

... while the Scottish fishing fleet depends relatively little on non-UK waters, the English fleet traditionally catches its fish in Irish, French and Norwegian, as well as UK, waters.

...UK vessels benefit from the right to fish large quantities of cod in north Norwegian waters that are paid for by transfers of other stocks that are mainly of valule to other EU countries.

... the UK fishing industry depends heavily on exports to the EU, so is vulnerable to tariffs. 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/84f51c84-5fe2-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895

 

the English fleet traditionally catches its fish in Irish, French and Norwegian, as well as UK, waters.

If really the case, then that's interesting and is news to me. I would wager that they were bilateral agreements that didn't include 'lopsided quotas' that are disadvantageous to the domestic industries of certain countries and were not imposed by a governing body like the EC. I'm def. not an expert on the fishing industry though. 

 

UK vessels benefit from the right to fish large quantities of cod in north Norwegian waters that are paid for by transfers of other stocks that are mainly of valule to other EU countries

To be fair though, the Norwegians don't have other nation's vessels pillaging their national waters in the same way as the UK does via these 'quotas' , so they can afford to allocate some of their stocks for subsidy, as they've plenty for themselves in the first place.

 

the UK fishing industry depends heavily on exports to the EU, so is vulnerable to tariffs. 

True enough I'm sure, however, once they aren't able to pilfer stocks in British waters with impunity and will rely on export from the UK (among others) for certain popular species, EU nations will have to play with kid gloves if they want to continue consuming their favourite seafood as readily, to some extent at least, surely?

 

[mommysboy]

Good news!  The prospect of a deal on financial services.

 

My opinion and guess (if that's ok with Bildy!????)- this was always going to happen as it's the one sector where the EU needs the UK more.  I have said this right from the start as hopefully veteran posters will agree.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/01/brexit-deal-on-financial-services-agreed-report

[melvinmelvin]

to add to that,

Russian boats (big ones) are constantly nabbed in Norwegian waters for sneak fishing

[tebee]

8 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

For UK (and it could end up being England only) to succeed we will have to go the way of Singapore. I don't believe we'll ever be that right wing and even a Tory government will maintain some form of welfare system, but it's the only strategy that will work when you consider our current talents.  

 

Some comfort for me- I'd love to see us as a dynamic, liberal economy running rings around the sclerotic EU, but make no mistake there is an enormously heavy price to pay.  Spare a thought for the poor!

 

I agree with many that an FTA agreement such as the so called Canada plus is probably the best that can be obtained if we want overseas trade deals.

82% of housing in Singapore is on cheap goverment 99 years leases - I can't see the UK investing in social housing like that! It's also a dictatorship which makes things easier.

 

I'm not sure just how much of the Singapore model we would want to adopt. 

[tebee]

5 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Good news!  The prospect of a deal on financial services.

 

My opinion and guess (if that's ok with Bildy!????)- this was always going to happen as it's the one sector where the EU needs the UK more.  

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/01/brexit-deal-on-financial-services-agreed-report

One more reason not to have no deal ! 

 

Good.

[tebee]

An abiding quality of rational, intelligent people is the ability, when faced with the vicissitudes of life, to calmly and confidently change one’s mind without appearing foolish or losing the respect of one’s peers.

 

Indeed, there are few things likely to undermine that respect more than a stubborn refusal to accept when one is clearly wrong. Such wisdom and maturity separates adults from children and the enlightened from the ideologue.

 

Having the courage to admit “we’re making a big mistake here”, however confident we might have been in our chosen course of action, is what differentiates real leaders from those timid souls, too fearful of derision to do the right thing.

 

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/opinion-time-to-grow-up-and-change-our-minds-about-brexit

 

 

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, tebee said:

82% of housing in Singapore is on cheap goverment 99 years leases - I can't see the UK investing in social housing like that! It's also a dictatorship which makes things easier.

 

I'm not sure just how much of the Singapore model we would want to adopt. 

A mixed bag then. I can't see the UK ever going so right wing, and certainly not becoming a dictatorship. There again Labour seems to have an unusually strong regard for business also.

 

Nothing would please me more to see cheap social housing, and the renationalisation of utilities.

 

Exciting/terrifying times ahead.

[mommysboy]

9 minutes ago, tebee said:

One more reason not to have no deal ! 

 

Good.

No deal is not going to happen.

[mommysboy]

Welcome to Singapore!  

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/31/britain-new-singapore-brexit-democracy

[My Thai Life]

22 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I'm just not at all sold that our predicament is caused or resolved by Brexit- there's much more to it than that. The debt crisis caused by the 2008 crisis never got tackled in an honest way, house prices are way too high, the economy is unbalanced, global warming poses a real existential threat more than a phoney economic war. 

 

So we leave EU, and nothing much changes because this crap Government has pledged that EU people already here can stay, and possibly vote too (Labour I imagine).

 

Having been oscillating this way and that for the past couple of years, half hoping Brexit would be cancelled, I am now swinging behind Brexit simply because it's a reality, and after all it was voted for.

I'd add that (1) alhough much of this thread is taken up with horror stories about the dire economic effects of Brexit, none of the 15 year forecasts support this view. Sure, most of the forecasts predict a hit on GDP, but not a disastrous one (2) the outlook for the EU is not good, politically or Euro-wise, and obviously the UK's leaving will weaken the EU even further.

 

You are absolutely right in saying that leaving the EU isn't going to fix the UK's political seesaw, but staying in won't either.

 

If the EU had developed along the lines of a partnership of independent nations it would be a far more attractive proposition, but in reality it's to a large extent a protectionist vehicle for powerful interest groups.

[Patriot1066]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

You're meant to read them yourself!

Who would read the times? It appears to be a just a remainer paper. Lost all credibility as a serious financial publication.

[My Thai Life]

21 minutes ago, tebee said:

An abiding quality of rational, intelligent people is the ability, when faced with the vicissitudes of life, to calmly and confidently change one’s mind without appearing foolish or losing the respect of one’s peers.

 

Indeed, there are few things likely to undermine that respect more than a stubborn refusal to accept when one is clearly wrong. Such wisdom and maturity separates adults from children and the enlightened from the ideologue.

 

Having the courage to admit “we’re making a big mistake here”, however confident we might have been in our chosen course of action, is what differentiates real leaders from those timid souls, too fearful of derision to do the right thing.

I sincerely wish you would review your posts on this thread in the light of this advice.

[tebee]

15 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I sincerely wish you would review your posts on this thread in the light of this advice.

If someone can give me a cogent reason why Brexit will solve the UK problems, without creating worse ones, I'll be happy to reconsider my point of view.

 

In three and a half years I've not heard one.

 

It worries me too that it is something supported by the extreme left and extreme right - to me this seems it must be something inherently bad 

[Patriot1066]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

I'm a London guy, but a very long time since I lived there.

 

At the 2011 census, London had a population of 8,173,941: 44.9% were White British, 37% of the population were born outside the UK, including 24.5% born outside of Europe. 

 

And London voted Remain ????

 

In large metropolitan benefits dependant communities remain won

 

I bet the 2018 figures would show much less White but more importantly ethnic English.

 

And the amount of illigalsvis out of control.

 

We will be moving out as soon as we can late next year!

 

very sad to see a country you live ruined through the actions of the political elite, whom of course don’t need to que at the doctors or get racially abused, a Turkish UBER driver told me a few weeks ago it was his country and I don’t men in a patriotic sense.

 

and of course it’s now a hate crime to suggest immigration was bad.

[bristolboy]

Just now, tebee said:

If someone can give me a cogent reason why Brexit will solve the UK problems, without creating worse ones, I'll be happy to reconsider my point of view.

 

In three and a half years I've not heard one.

 

It worries me too that it is something supported by the extreme left and extreme right - to me this seems it must be something inherently bad 

Would it allay your fears any to know that it's also supported by Putin?

 

[Patriot1066]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

Would it allay your fears any to know that it's also supported by Putin?

 

Putin will suport anything, but his ecconomy is held up by selling gas to mainly Germany.

 

 

[My Thai Life]

12 minutes ago, tebee said:

In three and a half years I've not heard one.

There have been many posted here on this thread - you chose not to see them.

Your daily postings about the dire economic consequences of Brexit are not supported by the economc forecasts. I have made this point several times.

 

 

 

[My Thai Life]

More results from HSBC's recent survey

 

" The survey of 500 companies found 40pc see Brexit as positive against 31pc who believe it is negative and 22pc who anticipate no impact.

In part this may be because companies believe themselves to be ready for leaving the EU - 83pc said they are prepared for Brexit.

This includes reviewing contracts to make sure any potential changes are addressed.

“British exporters remain bullish on international trade prospects and are clearly capitalising on the cheaper pound and increased demand for their products around the world,” said Amanda Murphy at HSBC."

[Patriot1066]

46 minutes ago, tebee said:

An abiding quality of rational, intelligent people is the ability, when faced with the vicissitudes of life, to calmly and confidently change one’s mind without appearing foolish or losing the respect of one’s peers.

 

Indeed, there are few things likely to undermine that respect more than a stubborn refusal to accept when one is clearly wrong. Such wisdom and maturity separates adults from children and the enlightened from the ideologue.

 

Having the courage to admit “we’re making a big mistake here”, however confident we might have been in our chosen course of action, is what differentiates real leaders from those timid souls, too fearful of derision to do the right thing.

 

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/opinion-time-to-grow-up-and-change-our-minds-about-brexit

 

 

Who says we were wrong?

 

if we stay we will soon be paying close on 20 billion a year, and it won’t be properly accounted for.

 

What about contagion from Italy as likely to be some.

 

what about further erosion of our own laws and representation.

 

if it were a trading block and not a political union I would vote remain but it’s not.

 

 

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, Patriot1066 said:

Putin will suport anything, but his ecconomy is held up by selling gas to mainly Germany.

 

 

Putin will support anything especially if it's beneficial for the UK. He's such an Anglophile!