UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[AlexRich]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

TM repeated it in parliament yesterday as did Hammond this morning - yet people say they never believed it...

Are speaking about the £350m (factual lie) or that it would go to the NHS (a lie involving word play).

[tebee]

Just now, AlexRich said:

Are speaking about the £350m (factual lie) or that it would go to the NHS (a lie involving word play).

I believe TM mentioned a figure of 385m a week after transition ! Hammond was asked about it, merely said " well of course there will be money we pay to the EU we won't have to after we leave" 

[melvinmelvin]

5 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

I don't believe that Theresa May is remotely like Johnson or Trump. What I believe has happened is that she has started out with the best of intentions and discovered during that process that she was not in a position to deliver the Brexit that others (but not all) had hoped for. She was faced with inevitable compromises.

 

The EU stuck together in the negotiations, no one country broke ranks. They held firm on their four principals, and it simply wasn't possible to break them. She tried, I'll give her credit for that. The argument that you can walk away in a negotiation is correct, but in this particular negotiation she would not be going back to the same place, she would be going back to a no deal off a cliff Brexit. She recognised how damaging that would be, it was never really an option ... because no deal is the worst deal of all. And despite what people claim on here if you damage your economy you usher in Corbyn. And he would be worse than Brexit.

 

I think that is why, despite the ton of criticism, the public are a great deal more supportive of her. 

 

 

 

your original post was about handling the truth, not about the quality/properties of deals

 

TM is pretty good at stretching/bending reality - hardly trustworthy

 

[baboon]

54 minutes ago, nauseus said:

No, most won't admit that because the bus did not play the part that remainers like to imagine it did.  

But shouldn't it, considering it was a lie..?

[tebee]

Well the government have released their own impact assessments of brexit 

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759762/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf

 

It don't look good.

[AlexRich]

2 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

your original post was about handling the truth, not about the quality/properties of deals

 

TM is pretty good at stretching/bending reality - hardly trustworthy

 

 

Then I don't understand what you are on about? I don't believe that May stands up and lies in the same way that Johnson and Trump do. All politicians put a spin on their views, but that's not the same thing. 

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

Project Fear continues. Remain was one of the two options in the 2016 referendum but it did not receive the majority vote. Say the Brexit vote was ignored or turned over and we didn't leave, how could anyone then know what is really involved if we go back to more of the same (EU)?

 

If we don't leave now then the political damage to the UK will be far worse than any economic pain. The economy was not the main reason for most leave votes and this is never acknowledged by remainers, even after nearly 2 1/2 years!     

 

Yes, there were other factors perhaps placed under the umbrella term sovereignty, but how does the Brexit deal honour this?  Only the WTO deal can do this.

 

Finances are important as well.

 

What is meant by 'political damage'?

 

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by mommysboy

[baboon]

27 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

In all seriousness that is exactly what Johnson did, and he doubled down the lie when he was confronted by the facts by various journalists. The UK never ever sent £350m per week to the EU, that was simply not true. Even if you did not believe the NHS part or viewed it as an option, but not a promise. 

 

Trump uses the same tactics ... lie, then when confronted with the facts, double down on it.

I am currently reading 'All out War' by Tim Shipman. He notes that the £350 million we send is gross, not net. After our rebate we don't send anything like that.

 

But moving on - Even if it was £350 million we could spend on the NHS, does one imagine the Hard Brexiteers in Parliament would want to shell out that cash on 'scroungers', 'council house scum', 'druggies', etc? Just look at their support base on here...

[kwilco]

A lot of Brexiteers don't like the Guardian ... (truth hurts?) .... but this isn't the Guardian. It's produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR2ETaKvfFt0RJQML4ASsY_vextRAvx4ByBrei3SincgrZx5VAHCwup2Awo

[adammike]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

You seem to have summed yourself up very well in your last sentence and joined the motley crew of Remainers who cannot let a post go past without insulting somebody.

 

I also am of that generation who left school at 15 and went straight out to work and one reason I voted to leave was because of my grandchildren in the UK.

 

On 11/17/2018 at 10:53 AM, Kalasin Jo said:

Perhaps, they came, they saw, they not like? Many other countries to visit.

 

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

You seem to have summed yourself up very well in your last sentence and joined the motley crew of Remainers who cannot let a post go past without insulting somebody.

 

I also am of that generation who left school at 15 and went straight out to work and one reason I voted to leave was because of my grandchildren in the UK.

I am a class warrior.(1st keyboard battalion)☺

[baboon]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

 

Wow, there's a question.

 

I don't believe that we will end up in a no deal outcome, I think MP's will put the brakes on that option.

 

I'm not sure if May will survive her deal being voted down on the first vote on 11 December. It's a tricky one as I think the 48 letters will be sent after the vote, but with quite a lot of public support for May currently I don't think that MP's will pull the trigger. But if the number of votes is high, she might well just say goodbye, I've done my best. If she wins reasonably well she will go back for another try with the EU. If she loses her replacement will do the same, go back to the EU with another idea ... possibly Norway for now. If her replacement tried to force no deal I think the government would fall ... and we then have an election. That's too much a risk for Tory MP's to take. So I think that is unlikely. If the second try gets rejected we are into a second referendum or an election ... with my bet on a second referendum as I think that would get enough votes. I have a sneaking suspicion that the second try will win the day ... and we'll see either May's tweaked plan or Norway for now. Failing that a second referendum and the end of Brexit. 

 

I think for the sake of the nation I'd prefer May's plan or Norway for now. No one gets everything that they want. 

 

 

I hope to God you are right. As a cautious man where huge stakes are involved, I am simply terrified that Parliament will argue itself to a standstill and a hard Brext will result by default.

Yes, I think politicians on BOTH parties are that selfish as to be fine with ruining the place just as long as they can govern whatever is left...

[vinny41]

15 minutes ago, kwilco said:

A lot of Brexiteers don't like the Guardian ... (truth hurts?) .... but this isn't the Guardian. It's produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR2ETaKvfFt0RJQML4ASsY_vextRAvx4ByBrei3SincgrZx5VAHCwup2Awo

Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.

[baboon]

6 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.

Perhaps you could be so kind as to link us to the No Deal Brexiteers' report on how the country stands to bloom once we depart with nothing but our own patriotic spirit...?

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, baboon said:

Perhaps you could be so kind as to link us to the No Deal Brexiteers' report on how the country stands to bloom once we depart with nothing but our own patriotic spirit...?

the statement " Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong." was in the report that you linked in the previous post

If remainers want a  postive outcome before they do anything they will end up doing nothing as in life there are no guarantees

 

[baboon]

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

the statement " Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong." was in the report that you linked in the previous post

If remainers want a  postive outcome before they do anything they will end up doing nothing as in life there are no guarantees

 

So that's a No, then. Just bluster. 'It will be better somewhere down the line, it just will...'

I am happy for you to be proven right, but armed with nothing more than the above, don't you see how easy it is to be cynical about your position?

 

Yes, 'But the EU...' However at least we knew where we stood and could use our influence to rein them in a bit. Now we are free to cut our deals with who? Trump's America? China? India? Our Commonwealth friends in Pakistan and Zimbabwe? All of which will be demanding we take their immigrants and agree to their terms that may not be exactly entirely favourable to us.

 

I admire your optimism. But I would rather stick with the devil I know, at least until the No Deal Brexiteers can come up with something better than they are now, which is nothing but carping from the sidelines.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, baboon said:

I am currently reading 'All out War' by Tim Shipman. He notes that the £350 million we send is gross, not net. After our rebate we don't send anything like that.

 

But moving on - Even if it was £350 million we could spend on the NHS, does one imagine the Hard Brexiteers in Parliament would want to shell out that cash on 'scroungers', 'council house scum', 'druggies', etc? Just look at their support base on here...

They sold Brexit as being good for ordinary people, with more money to spend ... but it was really about stripping out EU regulations, lowering taxes, cutting benefits and trying to create a free trade low tax small government country ... not something that the working class backers of Brexit would benefit from.

[AlexRich]

58 minutes ago, baboon said:

I hope to God you are right. As a cautious man where huge stakes are involved, I am simply terrified that Parliament will argue itself to a standstill and a hard Brext will result by default.

Yes, I think politicians on BOTH parties are that selfish as to be fine with ruining the place just as long as they can govern whatever is left...

I didn’t think people would be daft enough to vote leave, I’d hope self preservation amongst MPs results in a deal or another vote. I think a second vote will seal a deal. But with people like Johnson they simply don’t care about others. 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.

Not the sort of gamble you want to take. We have to go with the best estimates in order to make a sound decision.  I don't want to toss a coin.

[melvinmelvin]

20 minutes ago, baboon said:

So that's a No, then. Just bluster. 'It will be better somewhere down the line, it just will...'

I am happy for you to be proven right, but armed with nothing more than the above, don't you see how easy it is to be cynical about your position?

 

Yes, 'But the EU...' However at least we knew where we stood and could use our influence to rein them in a bit. Now we are free to cut our deals with who? Trump's America? China? India? Our Commonwealth friends in Pakistan and Zimbabwe? All of which will be demanding we take their immigrants and agree to their terms that may not be exactly entirely favourable to us.

 

I admire your optimism. But I would rather stick with the devil I know, at least until the No Deal Brexiteers can come up with something better than they are now, which is nothing but carping from the sidelines.

 

I think there is a fair chance that deal will fly in parliament, maybe with an amendment or two.

 

Since last Sunday when EU heads of states gave their nod to the deal and cover and for the process to continue

UK has been in a limbo, and will be in a limbo until parliament starts formal handling of the deal.

There is a vacuum in UK now.

May fills the vacuum with her campaign for selling the deal. Wise move.

 

Those strongly opposed to the deal do nothing.

They limit themselves to say bad deal bad PM when asked by msm.

No concerted action re their wish to shoot the deal down. Not a wise move.

 

Would not be surprised if the deal will fly.

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by melvinmelvin

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

Yes, there were other factors perhaps placed under the umbrella term sovereignty, but how does the Brexit deal honour this?  Only the WTO deal can do this.

 

Finances are important as well.

 

What is meant by 'political damage'?

 

 

Yes, finances are important as well. 

 

A better deal might have been possible and avoided most of this mess but May obviously never attempted to get that from the outset. Probably way too late now. The negotiation technique was mainly invisible but in any case not very effective, either by design or due to complete incompetence. Take your pick.

 

Political damage in so far as:

 

both major parties GE manifestos would be shot so their credibility should go to zero (if it's not already). 

 

resulting weak governments or coalitions for the foreseeable future.

 

the end of any semblance of UK democracy.

 

[nauseus]

47 minutes ago, notaduplicate said:

As a European citizen I'm really following this closely. I'm leaning on being in favor of a hard Brexit. But it's a hard call because there are so many variables in this. Firstly it's because the majority of people I meet who are English are racist scumbags and I rather not interact with them at all. But on the other hand, U.K and even England comprises of so much more than these stereotypical racist rednecks that I always come across no matter where in the world I go. And the only thing a hard Brexit would do is limit these people from Europe, and not the rest of the world. And ironically, these racist scumbags are the ones that voted to leave. 

You must be that Bunny La Roche?

[vinny41]

46 minutes ago, notaduplicate said:

As a European citizen I'm really following this closely. I'm leaning on being in favor of a hard Brexit. But it's a hard call because there are so many variables in this. Firstly it's because the majority of people I meet who are English are racist scumbags and I rather not interact with them at all. But on the other hand, U.K and even England comprises of so much more than these stereotypical racist rednecks that I always come across no matter where in the world I go. And the only thing a hard Brexit would do is limit these people from Europe, and not the rest of the world. And ironically, these racist scumbags are the ones that voted to leave. 

i think you have a blinkered view to what going on in Europe Poland, Hungary and Germany are full of racists

'Look for RAMPANT RACIAL war' in Europe, claims ex Human Rights Commission chair

FORMER Human Rights Commission chairman Trevor Phillips trashed claims suggesting Brexit caused hate crime rates to rocket, suggesting supporters of "rampant racial war" theories should turn to Europe.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1039103/Brexit-news-Trevor-Phillips-Human-Rights-Commission-hate-crime-EU-migration-policy-latest

[vinny41]

34 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Not the sort of gamble you want to take. We have to go with the best estimates in order to make a sound decision.  I don't want to toss a coin.

You take that gamble everytime there is a General Election I don't recall either Labour or Tories offering guarantees that a vote for them will been you will be better off 

[tebee]

I sincerely hope MPs don't let a disorderly no deal happen  

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-no-deal-latest-bank-of-england-warning-recession-financial-crisis-a8656561.html

[Jip99]

17 minutes ago, tebee said:

I sincerely hope MPs don't let a disorderly no deal happen  

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-no-deal-latest-bank-of-england-warning-recession-financial-crisis-a8656561.html

 

Please don’t put your faith in MPs to look after the best interests of the country !

 

 

If Carney’s Armageddon forecasts  come to fruition there will be a lot of business opportunities once the bottom of the cycle has been reached. 

[aright]

1 hour ago, baboon said:

Perhaps you could be so kind as to link us to the No Deal Brexiteers' report on how the country stands to bloom once we depart with nothing but our own patriotic spirit...?

Civil Servants are WRONG – only WTO rules will “ensure a successful Brexit”, top economist warns PM

Aug 02, 2018

The IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics report shows  that of the 22 largest value goods exporters to the EU 12 over the years 1993-2015, 15 were trading as most favoured nations under WTO rules, (or GATT until 1995), and seven were under some kind of bilateral agreement. The former, trading under the ‘worst possible option’, grew by 135% over the period and the latter by 107%. More importantly, they grew almost twice as much as the ‘best possible option’ of exports between the 12 founder EU members, which grew by only 70%, and four times more than UK exports to the other eleven, which grew by 25 per cent.

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/News/civil-servants-are-wrong-only-wto-rules-will-ensure-a-successful-brexit-top-economist-warns-pm/

 

Rees-Mogg joins forces with top economists to back World Trade Deal

Britain would be better off trading with the European Union under World Trade Organisation rules, according to a major new academic study of the likely impact of the failure of the UK and the EU to conclude a free trade agreement  by the Brexit date of March 29^th next year.

A world trade deal under WTO rules would boost the UK’s trade with the rest of the world including Europe, lower domestic prices and boost inward investment, says the report produced by Economists for Free Trade (EFT).

 

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/News/rees-mogg-joins-forces-with-top-economists-to-back-world-trade-deal/

 

The Treasury’s record of economic forecasting is so poor, it should have given up trying years ago

Indeed, their judgments have been wrong on every major issue over the last 87 years. They were wrong on each of Brexit, the Global Financial Crisis, joining the Euro, the Exchange Rate Mechanism, the 1981 budget, early 1970s inflation, the Philips curve and the abandonment of the Gold Standard in 1931. That is some track record.

https://brexitcentral.com/treasurys-record-economic-forecasting-poor-given-trying-years-ago/

[AlexRich]

33 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

Please don’t put your faith in MPs to look after the best interests of the country !

 

 

If Carney’s Armageddon forecasts  come to fruition there will be a lot of business opportunities once the bottom of the cycle has been reached. 

What about the collateral damage? If you think about it, if you are a Tory MP and you push the UK into a recession, how do you think you are going to do at the next election? The likelihood is that the Conservatives will be out of power for a generation. The first vote will be a loss, but the second, whatever deal is on the table will get approval.

 

I'm watching Corbyn very carefully. I think he would love a no deal Brexit. The Tories would get smashed in the election and he would take over with none of the restrictions that EU membership brings on state intervention. If this goes on beyond a second vote on a deal I would not be surprised to see him dragged screaming and kicking into calling a second referendum ... he doesn’t want to do it, he wants chaos and he wants to blame it on the Conservatives. 

 

 

 

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.

Do let us know when you get round to reading one.

[vinny41]

After yet another humbling U-turn... Why does Bank of England boss Mark Carney keep getting it SO wrong?

• His six-year tenure at the Bank of England has divided opinion
• Admited he was too gloomy about the immediate impact of the Brexit vote
• https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

• Bank of England’s chief economist admits errors in Brexit forecasts

  Andrew Haldane admits that the economics profession is in “crisis” after misjudging the dramatic impact of the Brexit vote.

• https://uk.businessesforsale.com/uk/search/businesses-for-sale/articles/bank-of-englands-chief-economist-admits-errors-in-brexit-forecasts

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Scott
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[nontabury]

4 hours ago, bomber said:

where exactly are these left behind area's where working conditions have deteriorated? i think mean council estates full of benefit scrounging,alcoholic,druggie,single mothers,how can this scum have deteriorated working conditions when they dont/wont work because they get more money not working,sweet FA to do with EU legislation,100% made in Great (haha) Britain,these people just love the likes of corbyn,farage,johnson as goebel's said tell them often enough they will believe its true.

 How you can paint so many different people with the same brush,leads me to beleive your ignorance is amazing.