1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

You take that gamble everytime there is a General Election I don't recall either Labour or Tories offering guarantees that a vote for them will been you will be better off 

Nobody takes this sort of gamble unless they really have to- that's the point! And nobody takes a gamble when the best result- note the best result- is merely not to lose!  That's mad unless there is some other gain to be had, which there does not appear because sovereignty is still ceded.

21 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Nobody takes this sort of gamble unless they really have to- that's the point! And nobody takes a gamble when the best result- note the best result- is merely not to lose!  That's mad unless there is some other gain to be had, which there does not appear because sovereignty is still ceded.

Well most Uk businesses have already indicated that Corbyn is bad for business if there was a General Election I expect people will still vote for Labour knowing that they may be poorer as a result 

Corbyn becoming PM is 'worse threat to business than Brexit', says bank

Report by Morgan Stanley says general election likely in 2018, and Labour winning could damage valuations of UK companies

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/27/corbyn-becoming-pm-is-worse-threat-to-british-business-than-brexit-says-bank

I guess the other option would to be ban candidates from standing in a general election but not sure if that would go down well with some people 

This is the chart of what a bad brexit looks like economically

 

 

I've just found the instructions for Brexit

 

This explains May's deal.....

 

 

33 minutes ago, tebee said:

 

Just as a matter of interest,is this the same Carney who predicted in the run up to the referendum, that the British economy would collapse,in the event of the British people democratically voting to leave the E.u.

 

 

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

 How you can paint so many different people with the same brush,leads me to beleive your ignorance is amazing.

there is work for everyone in the UK who wants it,anyone who cares to do it will NOT be in poverty,many who choose not to are still NOT in poverty thanks to benefits,anything left over are just bone idle,takes no working out.the UK and its politicians are doind their best to destroy this as all the forecasts have shown today.

2 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Just as a matter of interest,is this the same Carney who predicted in the run up to the referendum, that the British economy would collapse,in the event of the British people democratically voting to leave the E.u.

 

 

carney is a clown,but it shows how backward the UK is when they cannot even find a Brit to do such an important job,imagine a brit getting such a job in the USA or Germany or even Canada,he has decimated the pound for years with his negative talk,with the usual it will help exports crap,err sorry mr C but it didnt,he talked for 2-3 years of raising rates from 0.50% what happened? he cut them <deleted>,his predictions for brexit werent to far off as GDP did slow and the pound did collapse but brexit hasnt happened yet so the jurys still out.His forecasts today i believe could well happen but MPs are unlikely to take notice,i prefer to listen to businesses and they predict a similar story to his,so pretty scary even more so for expats if his worst case scenario of a 25% drop in sterling comes true (i predict a 10% fall) anybody looking forward to 31bt/pound,

59 minutes ago, bomber said:

carney is a clown,but it shows how backward the UK is when they cannot even find a Brit to do such an important job,imagine a brit getting such a job in the USA or Germany or even Canada,he has decimated the pound for years with his negative talk,with the usual it will help exports crap,err sorry mr C but it didnt,he talked for 2-3 years of raising rates from 0.50% what happened? he cut them <deleted>,his predictions for brexit werent to far off as GDP did slow and the pound did collapse but brexit hasnt happened yet so the jurys still out.His forecasts today i believe could well happen but MPs are unlikely to take notice,i prefer to listen to businesses and they predict a similar story to his,so pretty scary even more so for expats if his worst case scenario of a 25% drop in sterling comes true (i predict a 10% fall) anybody looking forward to 31bt/pound,

I see super rich have the pound at 41:90 I don't follow it that closely but that's as low as I can remember.its gone down 20% since the referendum? They did say all this would happen when Brexit actually happens and we will find out on 11-12 when they vote in parliament.strap in this could be a rough ride.

4 hours ago, bomber said:

carney is a clown,but it shows how backward the UK is when they cannot even find a Brit to do such an important job,imagine a brit getting such a job in the USA or Germany or even Canada,he has decimated the pound for years with his negative talk,with the usual it will help exports crap,err sorry mr C but it didnt,he talked for 2-3 years of raising rates from 0.50% what happened? he cut them <deleted>,his predictions for brexit werent to far off as GDP did slow and the pound did collapse but brexit hasnt happened yet so the jurys still out.His forecasts today i believe could well happen but MPs are unlikely to take notice,i prefer to listen to businesses and they predict a similar story to his,so pretty scary even more so for expats if his worst case scenario of a 25% drop in sterling comes true (i predict a 10% fall) anybody looking forward to 31bt/pound,

well paid clown it seems,

maybe stand up comedian

 

 

13 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.

quote from the Guardian (not biased against Brexit in any way).

 

"All scenarios were based on an assumption that EU migration rules remain roughly unchanged. If migration rules are dramatically tightened up, to the point where there is zero net migration from the EU and the EEA, GDP would be 1.8% lower in 2035-36."

 

I made bold and underlined what I think is an important point.

 

It is all based on the assumption that The EU rules don't change. 

 

Even when the UK was fully involved with the EU the only UK PM who made a difference was Margaret Thatcher and she got the EU to give us rebates.

 

Blair, Brown, Cameron and May have never successfully made any significant gains for the UK from the EU.

14 hours ago, AlexRich said:

don't believe that Theresa May is remotely like Johnson or Trump. What I believe has happened is that she has started out with the best of intentions and discovered during that process that she was not in a position to deliver the Brexit that others (but not all) had hoped for

 

14 hours ago, AlexRich said:

She tried, I'll give her credit for that.

 

14 hours ago, AlexRich said:

but in this particular negotiation she would not be going back to the same place, she would be going back to a no deal off a cliff Brexit. She recognised how damaging that would be, it was never really an option ... because no deal is the worst deal of all.

 

14 hours ago, AlexRich said:

the public are a great deal more supportive of her. 

 

14 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

people are suckers for being duped

 

 

After reading many of the preceding comments, I have to say, to echo Melvin's statement - people are indeed suckers for being duped. Remainers just as much, if not a lot more, than Leavers.

 

It is constantly repeated by Project Fear and the Remain camp, as though doing so enough times will render it true, that 'everyone who voted Leave had no idea about what Leave would mean'.

This is only half true. Most of us (albeit perhaps, those of us who were more informed) had an idea of what it MIGHT mean economically, but we had a greater understanding of what it COULD, no SHOULD mean if we were able to actually free ourselves from the shackles of the EU.

I.E.: Total sovereignty - ability to legislate and more importantly repeal legislation unilaterally and wholly within WM,

Having control of our borders back - forget the farcical 'opt outs' and renegotiations of treaties - as we have seen more clearly than ever in the last few weeks, the EU does not negotiate! It never really has to any meaningful effect, see: Cameron and Merkel and that pathetic debacle. In fact you'd need only take a cursory look over the EUs brief history to understand this point with some clarity.

And furthermore the ability to create our own trade deals and stimulate our own economy through this conduit - which being free of the CU would allow us to do.

Not being at the whim of EU directives, legislation or the ECJ was the other big boon to our nation that we were anticipating with glee.

  

What we didn't know, and had no way of knowing, is what would occur (in detail) after leaving, but this is life, it's a risky business, but the old adage rings true - 'who dares wins'. If you never try you'll never know. It's this total and overriding fear of the unknown that is one of the most misconceived aspects of the whole argument to Remain. We KNOW the issues that affect us if we REMAIN, we know things look set to get worse as the EU becomes (provably) more autocratic, centralised and bellicose with every passing year. What we DO NOT and NEVER will know is what might await us if we actually properly sever our ties. 

 

A lot of the resulting aftermath could become, admittedly down the line, a really positive story for the UK. Yes the arguments are there - we do not manufacture enough, we import more than we export, we have privatised much of our industry and sold it off etc. etc. The same could be said of other nations (to varying degrees) around the world, who are not and never have been part of a political/customs and currency union, and they have thrived. SGP/MALAY/SUI/NORWAY/ICE/TAIWAN are but a few examples. 

I don't have a plan for the country, I wouldn't presume to even set one out, broad brush-strokes perhaps, but nothing detailed. This is, of course, for a competent government to do, and right now we don't have one that has the where-with-all to do it, (so in this respect I understand some of the dismay) but surely we must have hope that this will change. I was encouraged to see that the gov. were bringing in top business people to go into trade negs with the EU in the coming months and years - entrepreneurship/business is something we do well in the UK and have done for centuries - if the regulations are relaxed and government - be it WM or more correctly, Brussels - has less influence, less control of regulatory impediment and less centralised power, then industry, business and SMEs can flourish - this is precisely what happened to Germany after the 2nd world war under Ludwig Erhard and the US's 'Marshall Plan', before the EEC was even a proper entity or had any tangible power. 

 

RE: May and her deal - this whole Project Fear endeavour has really tainted people's ability to view the future with impartiality, confidence or hope. If you drum something into a population enough, they do, inevitably, start to believe it.

May is a shrewd woman in some respects perhaps, and I am becoming more of the opinion that she had this outcome planned from the beginning, her being a staunch remainer is a factor in my thinking here. I could be wrong of course, but it looks more likely as the days go by. I've never known a more duplicitous PM.

 

She and her team did a woeful job negotiating, never even playing our hand - which we very much had - despite some nay-sayers opining to the contrary. She capitulated from the off it seems.

To be clear, the country didn't vote for a DEAL on the SM/CU or ECJ jurisdiction - we voted to LEAVE the lot! 'Hard' and 'Soft' Brexit are mediating terms created by the establishment in the following months to distort the reality of what the public desired - TO LEAVE!

 

'no deal off a cliff Brexit. She recognised how damaging that would be, it was never really an option ... because no deal is the worst deal of all.' - Well that is your and others OPINION, and that only. Unless you and those who propound the same result are soothsaying oracles, you have no idea what the actual outcome will be in 5 or 10 or 20 years time. None whatsoever. Only an informed opinion or at best a forecast based on a set of highly biased and pessimistic baselines. Nevertheless LEAVING is what the majority voted for. Short term damage or not, it is what was mandated by the people and what was promised by the government and the opposition time and again up until literally last month! May has little support in public now either, I think that is overwhelmingly clear, just as she doesn't within the HoC.

 

All that those of us who are for the delivery of democracy and the opportunity to go it alone and make a success of things can hope for now is that this deal is rightly killed in the Commons and that we go out on WTO terms and take things, as deliberately as possible, from there. Taking the presumed 'chaos' on the chin and making the best of every new and much anticipated opportunity that we would have afforded ourselves from there on out. 

 

That is surely far preferable to becoming a REAL 'EU colony', as this ignominious deal of May's (Barnier's ????)  would transform us into. 

 

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by CanterbrigianBangkoker

Surprisingly, none of the media reports I agree with are biased, yet all the ones I disagree with seem to be...

2 minutes ago, mogandave said:

Surprisingly, none of the media reports I agree with are biased, yet all the ones I disagree with seem to be...
 

Not surprisingly, most people mistake opinion based on evidence for bias.

I'm always amazed at how utterly infantile most expats are when they come to sorting the wheat from the chaff in the media.

Canterbrigian ... I'm not going through all that, only Tolstoy is worth that effort.

 

The leave campaigners knew what they were after with Brexit ... no EU regulations, strip out laws that protect people, low taxes, trade deals, small government, privatise NHS eventually ... an extreme US model. But they mentioned only trade deals, immigration and money savings that could be funnelled into public services, perhaps. Their underlying agenda was not explicit. And many of the people from working class areas who where persuaded by their arguments did not understand their full agenda. The main issue in 2016 was immigration, and that is what got their vote over the line ... not sovereignty, trade deals or anything else. Without a perceived immigration problem they would have lost. 

 

The people who are happy to pay the economic price are not affected economically by it, or at least don't believe they will be. A bit like sending others to war and watching from home on your TV.

 

Baboon asked the question: what do you think will happen? The only answer that I was certain of is what will not happen ... and that is a no deal Brexit. You're going to be very disappointed.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by AlexRich

7 hours ago, bomber said:

worst case scenario of a 25% drop in sterling comes true (i predict a 10% fall) anybody looking forward to 31bt/pound

Because that is of course what Brexit is all about and always was, right? Forex fluctuations in an already overvalued GBP.

 

Proves the Brexiteer collective's repeated point quite nicely, I'd say.

 

Understandable misgivings and concern about one's own (short term) future finances, but seemingly total disregard for the bigger, and ultimately, more important picture for the NATION as a whole.

Not surprisingly, most people mistake opinion based on evidence for bias.
I'm always amazed at how utterly infantile most expats are when they come to sorting the wheat from the chaff in the media.

Indeed, people that are of the same opinion as I am, are unbiased and merely draw conclusions based on facts. People that consider the same facts yet come to a different opinion are biased.

50 minutes ago, mogandave said:

Surprisingly, none of the media reports I agree with are biased, yet all the ones I disagree with seem to be...
 

It's always better to read ALL media/govt. etc. reports with an understanding as to their bias.

2 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

Indeed, people that are of the same opinion as I am, are unbiased and merely draw conclusions based on facts. People that consider the same facts yet come to a different opinion are biased.
 

 

 

and of course, the conclusion is that facts are seriously divisive,

better hide the facts and jointly focus on the glory tales, may unite the nation

 

45 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

Canterbrigian ... I'm not going through all that, only Tolstoy is worth that effort.

 

The leave campaigners knew what they were after with Brexit ... no EU regulations, strip out laws that protect people, low taxes, trade deals, small government, privatise NHS eventually ... an extreme US model. But they mentioned only trade deals, immigration and money savings that could be funnelled into public services, perhaps. Their underlying agenda was not explicit. And many of the people from working class areas who where persuaded by their arguments did not understand their full agenda. The main issue in 2016 was immigration, and that is what got their vote over the line ... not sovereignty, trade deals or anything else. Without a perceived immigration problem they would have lost. 

 

The people who are happy to pay the economic price are not affected economically by it, or at least don't believe they will be. A bit like sending others to war and watching from home on your TV.

 

Baboon asked the question: what do you think will happen? The only answer that I was certain of is what will not happen ... and that is a no deal Brexit. You're going to be very disappointed.

 

 

 

 

I agree with the first part of your second para. re. some leave campaigners - but you're forgetting that that the vast majority of the media/politicians/'establishment' were telling them that a leave result would result in doomsday!

 

A large percentage of the  electorate finally recognised the pure propaganda, and preferred to rely on what they knew via their own lives. IMO of course.

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

Canterbrigian ... I'm not going through all that, only Tolstoy is worth that effort.

 

The leave campaigners knew what they were after with Brexit ... no EU regulations, strip out laws that protect people, low taxes, trade deals, small government, privatise NHS eventually ... an extreme US model. But they mentioned only trade deals, immigration and money savings that could be funnelled into public services, perhaps. Their underlying agenda was not explicit. And many of the people from working class areas who where persuaded by their arguments did not understand their full agenda. The main issue in 2016 was immigration, and that is what got their vote over the line ... not sovereignty, trade deals or anything else. Without a perceived immigration problem they would have lost. 

 

The people who are happy to pay the economic price are not affected economically by it, or at least don't believe they will be. A bit like sending others to war and watching from home on your TV.

 

Baboon asked the question: what do you think will happen? The only answer that I was certain of is what will not happen ... and that is a no deal Brexit. You're going to be very disappointed.

 

 

 

 

 

'I'm not going through all that, only Tolstoy is worth that effort'. - (seems a few fellow posters disagree with you) but I'd say that encapsulates your view right there Mr.Rich. Not bothered enough to understand the other side/look into the matter from all sides or understand the causes for what is going on in the UK at a political or social level. Sorry if that's unfair, that is just the overall impression I get, reading your posts.

 

Long winded though I might be at times, (conversant arguments demand a bit of textual body ???? ) I think you have addressed few of my points and I believe your operating from a fallacious perspective. You've bought the establishment line, just like so many have - or perhaps, by the sound of it, you were already viewing proceedings from that side of the line in the first place.

 

This is your prerogative and I'm not here to criticise you personally. All I'd say in counter is - more succintly:

 

'no EU regulations, strip out laws that protect people, low taxes, trade deals, small government, privatise NHS eventually' - The same EU laws that supposedly protect people's work rights, yet we have the highest number of zero hour contracts ever, a saturated labour market that has killed the lower end of society's chances to earn a decent crust & kept wages frozen for a number of years & at the same time we see the highest unemployment rates across the Eurozone in recent history, a debt colony in the form of Greece and and another on the way in the form of Italy (if they play ball) - so for you to make the claim that the EU protects our's or any other EU citizens workers rights is a belief so laughable it cannot be taken seriously by anyone, with an enquiring mind. Privatising the NHS was NEVER a policy suggested by anyone, including UKIP - just another erroneous claim made by people who dislike the idea of Brexit. I'd concede the 350m figure was hokum and it was not alone - there were lies and misinformation spread by BOTH sides. Far fewer whoppers told by Leave than Remain though, of course.

 

'people from working class areas who where persuaded by their arguments did not understand their full agenda' - haha, pot and kettle, once again, as if those who voted Remain really knew the underlying agendas or ambitions of Cameron/Clegg and their cohorts or have any real idea of the aims and motivations of the EC and the upper echelons of the EU. They are of course deliberately opaque, so this is a pretty hypocritical and condescending statement to make, something that I and others have come to expect from Remoaners. It's also yet another attempt to diminish and undermine the knowledge of people, be they working class or any other class, and their reasons for voting Brexit. Immigration and it's effects may have been the biggest factor for many, but it was far from being alone. Sovereignty and the ECJ status among others would have been a close second, perhaps followed by current and future economic concerns. The rapid and irrevocable change to communities across the country coupled with wage suppression / saturation of lower-end & unskilled labour markets is a massive two-fold issue, the fact that you refer to it above as 'a perceived immigration problem' tells me all I need to know about your understanding of the issues that have precipitated Brexit.

 

The EU is not solely responsible, I for one have never said it was, BUT were we not within the EU's SM/CU and ECJ jurisdiction these issues can at least be abated and possibly solved in the longer run. Whilst still a fully paid up member there is 0 chance and never will be. Things will only get worse - just look around the rest of the stagnating and rupturing continent of Europe to get a better idea of what the future will look like. And you want to the UK be a more integrated part of that!? Incredible.

 

'The only answer that I was certain of is what will not happen ... and that is a no deal Brexit. You're going to be very disappointed.' - Strong words! I'm not sure you should be so certain of anything right now, and though you might like the chance to gloat over the opposition should Brexit not come to fruition, in reality you'd simply be acquiescing to autocracy and rejecting democracy, by doing so. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by CanterbrigianBangkoker

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

and of course, the conclusion is that facts are seriously divisive,

better hide the facts and jointly focus on the glory tales, may unite the nation

 

What "facts"???

 

All I've read is opinion and 'forecasts' - and even those producing the 'forecasts' admit that it's just a 'forecast' (certainly not a fact!) based on assumptions!

 

Their 'forecasts' have never (?) been correct previously - and yet some take them as gospel now.....

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

What "facts"???

 

All I've read is opinion and 'forecasts' - and even those producing the 'forecasts' admit that it's just a 'forecast' (certainly not a fact!) based on assumptions!

 

Their 'forecasts' have never (?) been correct previously - and yet some take them as gospel now.....

dunno, the facts that mogandave talks about I guess

 

my expectation was that my post would be interpreted as a joke

 

but in these dire times . . . . .

 

1 hour ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

Long winded though I might be at times, (conversant arguments demand a bit of textual body ???? ) I think you have addressed few of my points and I believe your operating from a fallacious perspective. You've bought the establishment line, just like so many have - or perhaps, by the sound of it, you were already viewing proceedings from that side of the line in the first place.

Pompous Brexiteering at its best.

19 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Pompous Brexiteering at its best.

Ha! Says one of the most condescending and abrasive posters on the whole forum! A bit verbose and long-winded I'd admit to, but pompous? Mai.

 

I even balanced the above statement with an apology - if I was incorrect in my analysis of the poster and said that it was his right to hold whatever views he does. Nothing personal intended as I made clear.

I wouldn't extend the same apology to you, of course ???? .

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by CanterbrigianBangkoker

6 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

well paid clown it seems,

maybe stand up comedian

 

 

yes and the leave voters want to give more power to the people that employ clowns like this,give me a frog or german any day.The UK couldnt organise a poss up in a brewery.

16 hours ago, baboon said:

Yes, 'But the EU...' However at least we knew where we stood and could use our influence to rein them in a bit. Now we are free to cut our deals with who? Trump's America? China? India? Our Commonwealth friends in Pakistan and Zimbabwe? All of which will be demanding we take their immigrants and agree to their terms that may not be exactly entirely favourable to us.

I was stationed in the UAE in 1970 not far from Dubai. In those days it was known as the Trucial Oman States, there was little oil and very few Americans. The UK was responsible for policing the area and provided a great deal of administrative and constructive assistance to the various emirates.

The Mathew Hedges case is a timely reminder of how little regard the UAE has for the help provided by the UK in those formative years. Those that think trade deals will come easy with countries that there is some form of historical relationship are in for a bit of a shock.

The UK has thrown away what little clout it had and the word "Beneficial" is never going to be associated with any trade deal, unless of course you work in the arms trade. There is a good reason why some are desperate to trade without the EU looking over their shoulder.

9 hours ago, adammike said:

I see super rich have the pound at 41:90 I don't follow it that closely but that's as low as I can remember.its gone down 20% since the referendum? They did say all this would happen when Brexit actually happens and we will find out on 11-12 when they vote in parliament.strap in this could be a rough ride.

pound is a tad above a 20 year low,the day before brexit is was around 53.5 a no deal would of boosted it to probably 55-57 also GDP would of been higher and inflation lower so possibly it could of been nearer 60,instead its averaged 43 thats a 25% hit and its more or less across all currencies,the extra money spent by brits overseas since brexit must be into the billions and rising,money that could of been spent in the UK,of all the predictions the drop in sterling was the one that was spot on and will be the same again if/when we do leave for good,most of carneys other worst case predictions look to be OTT and my thinking is cut them in half and you wont be far away from reality,so basically were still donald ducked. 

13 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Well most Uk businesses have already indicated that Corbyn is bad for business if there was a General Election I expect people will still vote for Labour knowing that they may be poorer as a result 

Corbyn becoming PM is 'worse threat to business than Brexit', says bank

Report by Morgan Stanley says general election likely in 2018, and Labour winning could damage valuations of UK companies

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/27/corbyn-becoming-pm-is-worse-threat-to-british-business-than-brexit-says-bank

I guess the other option would to be ban candidates from standing in a general election but not sure if that would go down well with some people 

And banks aren't exactly flavour of the month.  There is nothing wrong with an adequate social welfare policy and responsibly managed market economy; we have neither under the present Government.  Personally, I don't mind which party delivers it.

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

I agree with the first part of your second para. re. some leave campaigners - but you're forgetting that that the vast majority of the media/politicians/'establishment' were telling them that a leave result would result in doomsday!

 

A large percentage of the  electorate finally recognised the pure propaganda, and preferred to rely on what they knew via their own lives. IMO of course.

 

There's a difference between today and 2016. The day after the vote nothing changed, we were still in the EU, no disruption, no change in rules or processes. Yet the pound has fallen, GDP growth slowed and inward investment is well below expectations, so has slowed also. And that's was basically on a change in sentiment and business confidence. So not armageddon but not exactly the sunlit uplands either. But the day after "no deal" is on a different scale in terms of the actual changes ... everything changes, some foreseeable and others not ... and that is likely to be a much harder economic landing with real life consequences.

 

And my point is that the people who are advocating that do not believe they will be affected, but many others will pay the price, including the MP's who create it. Something that will be uppermost in their minds ... for them there are consequences also, so I think that they will go for some soft option, or pass it back to the public, who will toss it in the bin.