UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[My Thai Life]

5 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

That’s just a very lame way of admitting that you cant offer anything substantial. You don’t need to know the final agreement in order to analyze the outcome of potential agreements. That’s why the leave position doesn’t have any credibility. Whereas the remain side produces excellent pieces of fact-based and logically sound analysis,

It's easy to do fact-based analysis when you are dealing with known facts, as is the case with most of the remain analysis, which deals with the impacts on known cashflows for example. As I've already explained.

 

To do a similar kind of analysis for leave scenarios requires the modelling of an entirely new economic system or a major module of it, so it's a much bigger job. It's also necessarily based on assumptions to a much greater extent than remainer modelling needs to be. So to recap,  leave modelling is a much bigger job with a practically limitless combination of variables, all subject to assumptions. I'll make it even easier for you to understand - you are asking for fact-based modelling in the absence of facts!

 

If you want to spend the next couple of years on that project, be my guest, but the reality of the post-brexit economy will have overtaken you long before you finish. I realise that you and the other guy that keeps on asking for this are both engineers, but economic modelling on this scale is not amenable to the same kind of modelling that you may be used to as engineers. I've already explained this too.

 

And when figures are offered of the disbenefits of membership, such as the fact that the CAP consumes 40% of the EU budget, but contributes less than 2% of EU GDP, while inflating food prices by an estimated 17%, they are just pooh poohed by remainers who haven't done the research and seemingly have no interest in doing so.

 

As a neutral in this debate, it seems to me that it is the remainers who are behaving emotionally, even abusively, and displaying an inability to listen to views that are not consistent with their personal echo chambers. And we all know why - they lost!

 

 

Edited August 30, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Srikcir]

4 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

leave modelling is a much bigger job with a practically limitless combination of variables, all subject to assumptions.

If one has no idea of certainty with no identifiable range of deviation nor degree of error because there's a limitless (shall we say "infinite") number of economic models (some of which cannot even be foretold), then all that remains is faith that an unpredictable outcome will be good.

Such might still satisfy a patriot. But for a business, such undefined uncertainty is not a path to economic survival.

[brucec64]

Any chance of you sharing these ‘less biased sources’ you refer to?

Most likely infowars and anti-media. Where you go if you really want the truth :)

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[dunroaming]

Just popped in to the thread to see how it was doing and like always I am impressed by all your dedication to the Brexit debate.  I haven't posted anything recently because nothing of note is happening.  Just the same old media attempts to fill newspaper pages with half hearted speculative articles.  The rhetoric in here continues but alas still seems to go round and round in circles.  No matter what we think of the rights or wrongs of Brexit is really doesn't mean anything.  There will eventually be a conclusion and at that point there will be some bones to pick over.  Until then it is just our opinions and you know what opinions are like ?

[My Thai Life]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

But for a business, such undefined uncertainty is not a path to economic survival.

The two guys that keep asking for brexit models are not asking for a model for a business, they are asking for some sort of economic model - completely undefined!

 

But to your point about a specific business, let's say an SME:

 

> If you don't currently trade with the EU (and this is the vast majority of SMEs) or if your supply chain is not JIT-dependent on the EU then your life can only get easier.

 

> If you do trade with the EU, or you have a supply chain that's JIT-dependent on the EU, then you need to consider where the impact will be and plan accordingly. It's not possibe to say more than that in the abstract. But it's really not rocket science for SMEs.

 

Large corporations are used to dealing with a high level of business uncertainty anyway and have the resources to deal with it, or should have depending on the competence of the managers.

[brucec64]

I alternate between a few, and of course, I do read the MSM in the form of online sites for the Guardian, Independent, Telegraph, Mail and RT as well as others. I just take their reporting with a bigger pinch of salt, as is prudent, since they are funded and edited by those with specific agendas.
 
I am a real fan of John Pilger, Douglas Murray, Mark Steyn, the late Christopher Hitchens and his brother Peter, as well Chris Hedges and a couple of others. How 'unbiased' any of them are is obviously debatable, but to my mind they are 100% quality journalists of integrity (quite a rarity these days) who have contrasting views on this and other related and unrelated subjects. I would recommend reading and listening to all of them about Brexit, the EU (and it's history) and the pros and cons of both. They all have sites and blogs that are easy to find with a simple search. Another website I personally find well informed and less biased (as independents are able to be) is this one...
 
https://www.zerohedge.com/ - 
 
There's enough there for you to take a look at. I don't expect you to necessarily agree with my opinion of these sites/journalists, but these are some of my sources for information. I have read a few reports / studies from government & private agencies that are quite revealing. 
 
https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/Dumping_on_the_Poor_The_Common_Agricultural_Po.htm - this is a good example, I think it was posted by MyThaiLife in a prior post. I had read it before hand and thought it was well selected by him/her as an example of an independent enquiry into the malpractices of the EU via CAP. Happy reading!

Zerohedge pretty much sums up your viewpoint. The UK version of infowars. I believe in democracy and your right to vote, but it is scary sometimes...

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[dunroaming]

I notice that Panasonic are following my lead and moving their European Headquarters from London to Amsterdam after Brexit.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

They (almost invariably) become MPs to pursue their own power and wealth.

 

IMO of course, but I doubt many would disagree ☹️

This was my also my impression, when after Brexit vote, I paid more attention to British members of the parliament. This and the childish show they put in UK parliament. 

 

Fortunately the rest of the western world's parliaments  doesn't act in similar manner.. well, perhaps in Belarus, but they are hardly a western country. 

 

There are doers and then there are the showmen. It's up to the people to choose right leaders for their countries, provided they are allowed to do so.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

What the government, or anyone else promises, is trumped by what Parliament decides.  This was evidential when the Government attempted to enact Article 50 by circumventing Parliament. Acts of Parliament have supremacy- only Parliament can make or amend laws.

 

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Just reiterating your black and white views does not make the reality of the brexit referendum and its implementation black and white.

Good luck with the broken record head in the sand. Or go see a lawyer.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, brucec64 said:

Zerohedge pretty much sums up your viewpoint. The UK version of infowars. I believe in democracy and your right to vote, but it is scary sometimes...

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Zerohedge and Russia Today as well as Sputnik. The brothers in arms. Infowars could be part of the network, but it's hopefully not run by Russian GRU. 

Edited August 30, 2018 by Guest

[Guest]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

And when figures are offered of the disbenefits of membership, such as the fact that the CAP consumes 40% of the EU budget, but contributes less than 2% of EU GDP, while inflating food prices by an estimated 17%, they are just pooh poohed by remainers who haven't done the research and seemingly have no interest in doing so.

I'm not an economics major. Would you like to explain this in layman's terms?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

I notice that Panasonic are following my lead and moving their European Headquarters from London to Amsterdam after Brexit.

What other options foreign companies have? Either keep having their European headquarters in somewhat medium sized UK or move to larger economic entity of EU.

 

The greatest benefit of having London as European base was the language, English as lingua franca. That's no longer the case as it's possible to deal with tax departments in English in many European countries.

 

Finland went a bit further and made possible to use Chinese with our tax department. 

 

 This is how we invite businesses to come to our countries. Brexit did a great service for us all, who stay within the European Union. 

 

Once again, Thanks Hard Brexit Fans for these opportunities! In all fairness UK was a prosperous country for long time. It's now time to share that wealth with the rest of us.

[melvinmelvin]

 

Maybe that is what Brexit is about, wealth distribution across Europe.

 

(dream on, Chinese - Finish / its all Greek to me)

 

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

Maybe that is what Brexit is about, wealth distribution across Europe.

 

(dream on, Chinese - Finish / its all Greek to me)

Brexit is disuniting UK from EU.

 

However we EU members will make the best of that disunity. Just like any thinking countries would do. 

 

Offering services in Chinese to lure in Chinese companies and investors, naturally yes.

Offering services in English to compete with UK's lost companies, naturally yes.

 

Creating business environments, which are easy to work with, to lure companies which used to be based in London, naturally yes. 

 

Brexit was an unfortunate event, but life goes on. We'll make the best of it, naturally.

[mommysboy]

On 8/10/2018 at 8:14 AM, Bluespunk said:

The people should have the right to vote on any final deal. 

I would agree, providing it is a vote on the deal and not on leaving: the latter has been decided.

 

I think a vote is necessary because the deals on offer are fundamentally different from what was reasonably assumed.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I would agree, providing it is a vote on the deal and not on leaving: the latter has been decided.

Only the people who benefit of the brexit would say it's already decided. 

I'm not going to name any Russian lackeys in this occasion. 

[Bluespunk]

49 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I would agree, providing it is a vote on the deal and not on leaving: the latter has been decided.

 

I think a vote is necessary because the deals on offer are fundamentally different from what was reasonably assumed.

Nothing has been decided that cannot be changed. 

 

There is no reason a new vote should not include a remain option. 

Edited August 30, 2018 by Bluespunk

[sanemax]

6 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

There is no reason a new vote should not include a remain option. 

There is a reason why that option will not be available, that is because the people have already voted on that question , no need to ask again

[Bluespunk]

38 minutes ago, sanemax said:

There is a reason why that option will not be available, that is because the people have already voted on that question , no need to ask again

Could not agree less. 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, sanemax said:

There is a reason why that option will not be available, that is because the people have already voted on that question , no need to ask again

Our eastern friends are eager to destroy the western unity, there is nothing new about it.

 

Weaker west is beneficial to the east. 

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

I would agree, providing it is a vote on the deal and not on leaving: the latter has been decided.

I think a vote is necessary because the deals on offer are fundamentally different from what was reasonably assumed.

There were never ever any deals on offer that could be 'reasonably' assumed by any party other than that there would be a Brexit process post-referendum.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

There were never ever any deals on offer that could be 'reasonably' assumed by any party other than that there would be a Brexit process post-referendum.

Say that again?

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

Say that again?

Anybody waffling on about 'reasonable assumptions' is just talking a lot of hot air.

[Grouse]

8 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Anybody waffling on about 'reasonable assumptions' is just talking a lot of hot air.

Oh, OK.

 

Thanks

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

14 hours ago, brucec64 said:

Zerohedge pretty much sums up your viewpoint. The UK version of infowars. I believe in democracy and your right to vote, but it is scary sometimes...

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

'Zerohedge and Russia Today as well as Sputnik. The brothers in arms. Infowars could be part of the network, but it's hopefully not run by Russian GRU.' 

 

? ? You lot crack me up something rotten! 

 

Thank you so much Brucec64 for 'believing in my right to vote' how validating that is, and coming from you, too! My viewpoint is diametrically opposed to you Guardianista champagne socialist types. Thank Christ for that too, we need some sense in this world, and an opposing opinion is what creates debate and parliamentary democracy, after all...even if it offends and shocks your delicate sensibilities so... ?

 

One day, with some luck, you'll become better informed, until then how about you show your hand and give some specific examples (as I did, very openly) of where your superior information is derived? ... Here's betting you wont.

Edited August 31, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

15 hours ago, brucec64 said:

Most likely infowars and anti-media. Where you go if you really want the truth ?

 

So...I'm still waiting to hear where Mr.Fleet Street gets his news from...Care to share?

 

I notice you picked up on RT and Zerohedge and conveniently ignored the other totally reputable and acclaimed journalists, many of which I'm sure you're quite unaware of.  Here's a thought, maybe you should familiarise yourself with them a bit better? ?.  

 

 

Edited August 31, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[Grouse]

19 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

You lot crack me up something rotten! 

Cantab indeed!

 

May I suggest a subscription to The Economist? Good value I believe ?

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

5 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Cantab indeed!

 

May I suggest a subscription to The Economist? Good value I believe ?

 

Here we go again with these doubts Grouse! Yes, I'm 100% Cantab, but hey - I'm town, not gown, pal.

 

Do you imagine everyone in 'Bridge speaks the queen's English with a high pitch 1940's BBC announcer style voice ?? ?

 

I keep the Economist handy - right beside the lav for emergencies...like when I run out of loo roll. ? 

[Grouse]

13 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

 

Here we go again with these doubts Grouse! Yes, I'm 100% Cantab, but hey - I'm town, not gown, pal.

 

Do you imagine everyone in 'Bridge speaks the queen's English with a high pitch 1940's BBC announcer style voice ?? ?

 

I keep the Economist handy - right beside the lav for emergencies...like when I run out of loo roll. ? 

Thanks for your candour! I was beginning to think you were from Peterborough!

[melvinmelvin]

18 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

 

Here we go again with these doubts Grouse! Yes, I'm 100% Cantab, but hey - I'm town, not gown, pal.

 

Do you imagine everyone in 'Bridge speaks the queen's English with a high pitch 1940's BBC announcer style voice ?? ?

 

I keep the Economist handy - right beside the lav for emergencies...like when I run out of loo roll. ? 

 

when running out of loo roll, try this,

easily beats Economist