UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

'Lies, damn lies and statistics' has been a common expression/joke for a very long time.  It's probably time to add 'polls' to that list! ?

 

19 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m certain of two things:

 

1. A random sample of 2700 from a population of 3,000,000 will comfortably provide a Confidence Level of 99% and a Confidence interval of 3%.

 

2. Your ignorance of statistics is more profound than I at first suspected.

 

 

Brexitters arguing with the principles of mathematics is taking their denial of reality to new heights of ludicrousness.

 

14 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

And like much common sense it’s hogwash.

 

If you don’t trust statistics don’t fly in an aircraft, don’t travel in a car, don’t cross a suspension bridge, don’t ride in an elevator, don’t take any medicines.

 

The safety of all of these and very many more aspects of modern life is reliant upon statistics, significantly on the very same statistical analysis of samples used in opinion polls.

 

Nobody uses common sense to build commercial aircraft.

 

3 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

don't hold your breath

 

explaining sampling, confidence, intervals, casualty to people who do not know statistics or math is impossible

people just will not believe you - regardless of what you say

 

 

1 minute ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm pretty sure the common expression/joke about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' is largely related to politics and business (edit - and media) using these to manipulate opinion in 'their' favour.

 

 e.g. I suspect few doubt actuarial tables.

Thank you Chomper Higgot and melvinmelvin.

 

'Remainers' never fail to disappoint when it comes to hurling insults or,  accusing those with a different opinion of 'having no knowledge'/'being less intelligent' than themselves ?.

 

 

[aright]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

 

 

Thank you Chomper Higgot and melvinmelvin.

 

'Remainers' never fail to disappoint when it comes to hurling insults or,  accusing those with a different opinion of 'having no knowledge'/'being less intelligent' than themselves ?.

 

 

Good point! You learn something every day . I always thought the de Haviland Comet crashes of years ago and the recent bridge collapse in Italy was as a result of poor engineering. Apparently I was wrong it was due to statistics.  

[dick dasterdly]

41 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

And like much common sense it’s hogwash.

 

If you don’t trust statistics don’t fly in an aircraft, don’t travel in a car, don’t cross a suspension bridge, don’t ride in an elevator, don’t take any medicines.

 

The safety of all of these and very many more aspects of modern life is reliant upon statistics, significantly on the very same statistical analysis of samples used in opinion polls.

 

Nobody uses common sense to build commercial aircraft.

Sorry, I failed to address your final three paras.

 

The COSTS involved for the manufacturer/supplier as a result of deaths - are the major factor keeping everyone 'in line':-

 1)airplanes crashes

2) faults in car design

3) suspension bridges failing

4) elevator failures

 

etc. etc.

 

Having said this, there have been a couple of cases where known faults were allowed to continue as the 'payout' would be less than the cost of 'recall and correction'....

 

I'd add, that in that none of the cases you've quoted are based on statistics - they were based on TESTING.  Which is a subject in itself as a result of thalidomide etc.....

Edited September 9, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, aright said:

collapse in Italy was as a result of poor engineering

 

8 minutes ago, aright said:

Good point! You learn something every day . I always thought the de Haviland Comet crashes of years ago and the recent bridge collapse in Italy was as a result of poor engineering. Apparently I was wrong it was due to statistics.  

Hmm. Good point. Similarly, for polls to be credible, they require careful engineering, without the overuse of spanners. 

[aright]

19 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Hmm. Good point. Similarly, for polls to be credible, they require careful engineering, without the overuse of spanners. 

I haven't trusted polls since I read 62% of women had affairs during their lunch break. I've never met a woman who would give up lunch for sex.

[melvinmelvin]

38 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

This latest survey is one of many that are demonstrating the same trend - opinion moving against Brexit and in favour of the electorate having a final say.

 

But yes I certainly take your point that the line ‘Statistics and damned lies’ is often used by politicians, usually when they don’t like what the statistics are telling them.

 

As an aside: 

 

The very first statistics lecture I attended the lecturer started with the pronouncement:

‘Failing this subject will be the single biggest cause of students being sent down, those of you who fail and are sent down might commit to memory the phrase ‘statistics and damned lies’, it might offer you comfort in later years.

 

as a further aside;

medics-dentists-social sciences people-etc also misuse statistics to a high degree, not to speak about MSM

they use advanced methods without having a profound understanding of what they are doing with the data material

 

umpteen years ago there was a HUGE environmental research project in Norway re acid precipitation

ie. crap from UK industry being carried by clouds / winds to Norway and crapping down our mountain lakes and rivers

lots of people involved over years - cost : 100 + millions money

project completed - results published

 

a friend of mine  omni bright guy (medicine - mathematics - statistics- computer science) exploded

he addressed all the rags there were slaughtering this project

total waste of 100+ million money

NOTHING of any significance whatsoever  has come out of this project

 

the ONLY statistical projection of any use is that there seems to be a correlation between hight over sea level and distance from the  sea

 

[aright]

1 minute ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

 

the ONLY statistical projection of any use is that there seems to be a correlation between hight over sea level and distance from the  sea

 

The other significant poll, I feel, concluded  "A lower voter turnout is an indication of people not turning up at the polling office on election day"

[adammike]

29 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Hmm. Good point. Similarly, for polls to be credible, they require careful engineering, without the overuse of spanners. 

And theirs me thinking in the case of the comet it was metal fatigue.What are the statistics that the cause of the bridge to collapse were, 1/ designed by Italians 2/ built by Italians 3/ constructed with mafia supplied concrete.

What are the bookies saying about brexit? Somebody should post the odds every day of a hard v soft v no brexit they know their maths.

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, adammike said:

And theirs me thinking in the case of the comet it was metal fatigue.What are the statistics that the cause of the bridge to collapse were, 1/ designed by Italians 2/ built by Italians 3/ constructed with mafia supplied concrete.

What are the bookies saying about brexit? Somebody should post the odds every day of a hard v soft v no brexit they know their maths.

I'm probably missing the point here - but I thought the bookies got it very wrong re. the brexit referendum result?

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, aright said:

Good point! You learn something every day . I always thought the de Haviland Comet crashes of years ago and the recent bridge collapse in Italy was as a result of poor engineering. Apparently I was wrong it was due to statistics.  

thy shall sea a lot before the eyes fall out

 

your comment is just beyond belief

 

I hope Brexit succeeds, EU has no use for brains like yours

 

[brucec64]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I found the article a little boring but I did note that the survey was



 

quote " of more than 2,700 members of Unite, Unison and the GMB by YouGov, for the People’s Vote campaign, also finds that a clear majority of members of the three unions now back staying in the EU, believing Brexitwill be bad for jobs and living standards."

 

The membership of the GMB is a general trade union in the United Kingdom which has more than631,000 members. Unite has 1.42 million members and Unison has 1.3 million. That gives a total of around 3 million so more than 2,700 members is so insignificant as to be a waste of time.

 

The People's Vote Campaign is led by the Labour MP,  Chuka Umunna who is completely at odds with the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

 

And you think that this is a wonderful thing?

 

How can more that 2,700 people from over 3,000,000 mean a majority in favour?

It becomes very tedious to try to explain statistical theory every time a survey is published. 2700 is more than enough to get a margin of error of +-5% on a population of 3 million. The question is really on how the survey was designed and that the sample was random enough.

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, rixalex said:

You start by saying that nobody has proof of future events and then go on to state as a matter of fact that in the future a lot more companies will follow Panasonic.

And regarding the Panasonic story, it made big headline news a couple of weeks back and from the headline one imagined a vast factory plant or two with factory workers, office staff, management team, truck drivers, tea ladies and all the rest, potentially with their jobs on the line, and all thanks to Brexit. Then you read down the article and near the bottom come to the line, "fewer than approximately ten people would be affected out of a staff of 30".

To repeat. Less than ten.

Yes quick people. For goodness sake. Reverse this mass exodos before it's too late.

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The point was about damage in general but of course it is nit picking and sarcasm to the fore. I will give you three more examples for you to pick away at.

 

EMA and their dependent services.

EBA and their dependent services.

About 200 or so notified bodies that made a significant contribution to the UK economy servicing Non EU customers.

 

The damage is all around but none so blind as those that do not want to see.

[rixalex]

The point was about damage in general but of course it is nit picking and sarcasm to the fore. I will give you three more examples for you to pick away at.
 
EMA and their dependent services.
EBA and their dependent services.
About 200 or so notified bodies that made a significant contribution to the UK economy servicing Non EU customers.
 
The damage is all around but none so blind as those that do not want to see.

Of course Brexit will bring some damage in some areas. Who is disputing that?


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[Chomper Higgot]

4 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Correct, if the population is "homogeneous," ie., uniform, identical unvaried, consistent in character.

If the population is suspected not to be homogeneous, then the population to be tested must be stratified into homogeneous groups by whatever suspected difference might be to test any causality to the connection between a cause and its result or consequence, ie., by skill, pay level, gender, religion, etc.

Test for causality can be incorporated into an initial survey to determine if subdivision of population must be done to assure that it is homogeneous.

Alternatively multiple independent random characteristics within a large population when summed will tend towards ‘the normal distribution’  (bell curve) - Central Limit Theory.

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, Scott said:

A post has been removed.   The thread isn't about Sweden.  

 

It's about UK and EU ane Sweden is in thethe EU........they also want UK to stay......all of the EU does.

[kwilco]

31 minutes ago, rixalex said:

Of course Brexit will bring some damage in some areas. Who is disputing that?


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Look what Brexit is doing to the UK....

 

https://news.sky.com/story/police-plan-for-civil-unrest-after-no-deal-brexit-11493685

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

 

 

Thank you Chomper Higgot and melvinmelvin.

 

'Remainers' never fail to disappoint when it comes to hurling insults or,  accusing those with a different opinion of 'having no knowledge'/'being less intelligent' than themselves ?.

 

 

One of the foundations of the Brexit campaign and Brexit arguments was and is the idea that expert opinions are worthless and/or not to be trusted.

 

In this thread we see Brexiteers following that line by arguing against the validity of the findings of statistics based polling.

 

Brexiteers might feel insulted when their arguments against the statistical methods are shown to be ignorant of the mathematics they are criticizing, but what’s the alternative?

 

We could offer instruction on the mathematics of statistics or we could fall into the Brexit anti expert trap and accept ignorant arguments as having the same validity as an informed argument.

 

I’m not for accepting ignorance as having the same validity as an informed opinion.

 

If somebody doesn’t understand how a sample of a population can be mathematically demonstrated as an accurate representation of the whole, that’s their problem, not anyone else’s.

 

If you find that insulting the remidy is study statistics then come back and offer an informed opinion.

 

Getting called out for your ignorance while criticizing something you clearly don’t understand is not an insult.

 

Don’t leap to be ‘insulted’ think of it more as a learning opportunity.

[aright]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

The point was about damage in general but of course it is nit picking and sarcasm to the fore. I will give you three more examples for you to pick away at.

 

EMA and their dependent services.

EBA and their dependent services.

About 200 or so notified bodies that made a significant contribution to the UK economy servicing Non EU customers.

 

The damage is all around but none so blind as those that do not want to see.

Spot on! The Europe of dreams is slowly becoming the Europe of reality what with Brexit, Migration and Refugees, the Economy, Digital Europe, Foreign and Security Policy, and the Political Scene.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, aright said:

Good point! You learn something every day . I always thought the de Haviland Comet crashes of years ago and the recent bridge collapse in Italy was as a result of poor engineering. Apparently I was wrong it was due to statistics.  

You don’t understand statistics, stay away from engineering.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm probably missing the point here - but I thought the bookies got it very wrong re. the brexit referendum result?

I don't think there was much to miss, Dick. My regards to Muttley.

[kwilco]

....and for anyone who thinks Brexiteers represent a unified body, here's one Brexiteer to another....

 

 

"Theresa May’s Brexit strategy has put the UK constitution in a “suicide vest” and handed the detonator to Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier,"

.....Boris Johnson

Edited September 9, 2018 by kwilco

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, kwilco said:

....and for anyone who thinks Brexiteers represent a unified body, here's one Brexiteervto another....

 

 

"Theresa May’s Brexit strategy has put the UK constitution in a “suicide vest” and handed the detonator to Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier,"

.....Boris Johnson

Only one of those names might belong to a Brexiteer. The other two are pro remain. 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Sorry, I failed to address your final three paras.

 

The COSTS involved for the manufacturer/supplier as a result of deaths - are the major factor keeping everyone 'in line':-

 1)airplanes crashes

2) faults in car design

3) suspension bridges failing

4) elevator failures

 

etc. etc.

 

Having said this, there have been a couple of cases where known faults were allowed to continue as the 'payout' would be less than the cost of 'recall and correction'....

 

I'd add, that in that none of the cases you've quoted are based on statistics - they were based on TESTING.  Which is a subject in itself as a result of thalidomide etc.....

Please stop digging:

 

https://www.pharmpress.com/files/docs/ISPCT_sample chapter.pdf

 

https://smartech.gatech.edu/handle/1853/6282

 

http://faculty.washington.edu/fscholz/DATAFILES/MathSciencesTalk2.pdf

 

[nauseus]

13 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Look what Brexit is doing to the UK....

 

https://news.sky.com/story/police-plan-for-civil-unrest-after-no-deal-brexit-11493685

 

 

That Old Project Fear..... just keeps rollin along.....? ???

[kwilco]

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Only one of those names might belong to a Brexiteer. The other two are pro remain. 

QED the state of Brexit...they can't even admit to their own being members!!!

Edited September 9, 2018 by kwilco

[kwilco]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

That Old Project Fear..... just keeps rollin along.....? ???

A truly great and incisive counter argument.... only from a Brexiteer.

So you think they are not preparing?

Please show us more of your thinking on this.

[aright]

 

21 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You don’t understand statistics, stay away from engineering.

I am an Engineer but obviously not as arrogant or egotistical as you! 

[nauseus]

7 minutes ago, kwilco said:

QED the state of Brexit...they can't even admit to their own being members!!!

What's wrong? I said Boris might be!

[nauseus]

11 minutes ago, kwilco said:

A truly great and incisive counter argument.... only from a Brexiteer.

So you think they are not preparing?

Please show us more of your thinking on this.

I can't reveal more right now. Sorry.

[rixalex]

Look what Brexit is doing to the UK....
 
https://news.sky.com/story/police-plan-for-civil-unrest-after-no-deal-brexit-11493685
 
 

Yes. I've read that. What's your point and how does it relate to my post?

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