Set early election date or risk humiliation: Editorial

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Okay, I am scaring myself now. 

 

I will be watching for few key signs before I start to be scare. If the junta replace paper to digital ballot, ban foreign observers, dissolve PTP and FFP just before the election and put soldiers at all polling centers, then the election is done for and Prayut got his wish fulfilled. 

[Samui Bodoh]

19 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Hun Sen is a gangster and has little interest in western tourism or investment.  His interests are on China.  He is focusing on gambling and, construction and infrastructure projects.   There is no quota for Chinese going to Cambodia compared to Macau, and that has some in Macau grumbling. 

 

The junta, with its legitimacy delusions, has far more formidable adversaries, they still want western tourists, the auto industry is foreign controlled, the electronics factories are foreign controlled.  Given foreign interests in Thailand and the uncontrollably brutal of foreign media, it would be more verbal abuse than the delicate tinpot could bear should he decide to pull a Hun Sen caper.   Look how he buckled after the Indonesian reporter took a shot at Thailand's lack of participatory government. 

Excellent post as always, YB!

 

However, if there is no significant response (other than a few Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!) regarding the situation in Cambodia, wouldn't it be a logical, reasonable assumption that there would be a similar reaction regarding Thailand? It is an assumption that I would make, so it is very conceivable that officials in the Junta would make the same assumption.

 

I am not saying that it is going to happen, merely that it is very much in the realm of possibility. And, as wise men know, underestimating your foes is probably the single most serious mistake anyone can make.

 

PS Eric; if the Junta did half of what you suggest, the election is done.

 

 

[holy cow cm]

7 hours ago, Eligius said:

Some childish bits (as always) in this 'editorial'. The idea that everyone was gripped by  'excitement and relief' over a previous date announcement for the 'election' is pure fantasy land: nobody (with more than one brain cell) took that announcement seriously. People were not little kids - all jumping with glee and running around the playground, saying: 'Whoopee!! The Government have definitely announced the date of the election. We are so excited!!'

 

Also, the article misses the key point (which Samui Bodoh often makes): that if this election is not going to be full, free and fair, then it is better for everyone concerned to boycott the election altogether, rather than have Prayut revel in an assumed and false 'legitimacy'. 

 

Of course the ASEAN presidency thing is just one of many that will be used to push the 'election' back again (beyond May). But there will be other, much sadder, events that will be exploited to give a really long delay to the entire bogus charade of an 'election' ...

Also, the article misses the key point (which Samui Bodoh often makes): that if this election is not going to be full, free and fair, then it is better for everyone concerned to boycott the election altogether, rather than have Prayut revel in an assumed and false 'legitimacy'. 

 

Great point, but if they do boycott isn't it against the law as a national security issue or defaming the junta issue or making Thailand look bad issue or all 3 that could be inflicted as charges? Boycotts are same as a protest which is illegal. Such a catch 22. My theory is there won't be enough of all the oppositions parties party members left after this year is done after jumping ship, standing down from being threatened, or put up on charges for one reason or the other.

[Eligius]

22 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Also, the article misses the key point (which Samui Bodoh often makes): that if this election is not going to be full, free and fair, then it is better for everyone concerned to boycott the election altogether, rather than have Prayut revel in an assumed and false 'legitimacy'. 

 

Great point, but if they do boycott isn't it against the law as a national security issue or defaming the junta issue or making Thailand look bad issue or all 3 that could be inflicted as charges? Boycotts are same as a protest which is illegal. Such a catch 22. My theory is there won't be enough of all the oppositions parties party members left after this year is done after jumping ship, standing down from being threatened, or put up on charges for one reason or the other.

Great points, Holy Cow CM. I think you are probably right. I think the junta are going to cajole, bribe, browbeat and otherwise coerce lots of 'politicians' to go with them, or at least not stand in their way. It would not surprise me at all if the Pheua Thai Party is effectively banned or so watered down and slimmed down that it won't be able to mount a real challenge to Prayut. One thing is for sure: no way will he fight this battle as a fair fight. He will make sure that all the cards are stacked in his favour.

 

 

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Excellent post as always, YB!

 

However, if there is no significant response (other than a few Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!) regarding the situation in Cambodia, wouldn't it be a logical, reasonable assumption that there would be a similar reaction regarding Thailand? It is an assumption that I would make, so it is very conceivable that officials in the Junta would make the same assumption.

 

I am not saying that it is going to happen, merely that it is very much in the realm of possibility. And, as wise men know, underestimating your foes is probably the single most serious mistake anyone can make.

 

PS Eric; if the Junta did half of what you suggest, the election is done.

Thank you !

 

Thailand has much more to lose from bad behavior than the Cambodia.   If Congress or EU sanctioned members of the junta individually, as done in Cambodia, the shame would kill them.  

 

The junta's opposition, though patient, would no longer have any reason to remain so.  It would be the final straw. 

 

Given the Cambodian people's hatred of their leader, and the tedium of the junta's fractured approach towards governing and delusional vision for Thailand, something similar to Arab spring may happen. 

[holy cow cm]

10 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Great points, Holy Cow CM. I think you are probably right. I think the junta are going to cajole, bribe, browbeat and otherwise coerce lots of 'politicians' to go with them, or at least not stand in their way. It would not surprise me at all if the Pheua Thai Party is effectively banned or so watered down and slimmed down that it won't be able to mount a real challenge to Prayut. One thing is for sure: no way will he fight this battle as a fair fight. He will make sure that all the cards are stacked in his favour.

 

 

Yep it appears exactly that way. And as I stated earlier today somewhere, if not all in their favor, there might be something created on the back end so they can declare marshal law under a national security objective to slow things right back to a stand still. 

[Srikcir]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Under my scenario, the first piece of legislation to go through the legislature would be a "new and improved" Article 44; they kept it in the transition from the temporary constitution, why not keep it in the transition from military to 'civilian' rule? Who would stop them?

Sorry but I think the junta is way ahead on this scenario.

Article 44 currently remains in effect until the new elected government has been recommended by Prayut and forwarded for royal endorsement.

Included in that endorsement is a selected prime minister and cabinet. Prayut has the power to disapprove either under current Article 44.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

PS Eric; if the Junta did half of what you suggest, the election is done.

 

Or they will revert back to SOP and plan a coup when the election outcome not to their favor. Suthep is always on the standby to do their bidding and double “A” Abhisit and Anutin  can switch side on command. 

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Prayut will be in charge of a caretaker government without the authority to endorse agreements with other Asean nations or even make commitments.

Prayut will be in charge of a caretaker government that has access and right to absolute power.

Any constraints applied by the Constitution are null and void as Article 44 orders have the force of constitutional law.

His caretaker government will be in name only. Prayut's caretaker government will not operate like Yingluck's caretaker government. There is nothing preventing Prayut from endorsing agreements with other ASEAN members. Though he cannot prevent the other ASEAN members refusing such agreements with Prayut. But that scenario stalemates the entire summit purpose.

Are any of the ASEAN members willing to be so bold?

[candide]

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"Holding pattern or dithering?"

 

Let me offer a third option that is particularly troubling; what if the Junta calls for an election in November?

 

Before the idea is dismissed out of hand, it is what was promised to the Americans a while back, laws could be sped up to be in place (you don't have to wait the full 90 or 150 days per the legislation), there have been calls for a quick election and everything could easily (Article 44) be rammed through in a matter of days. Remember a few days ago when the chief Junta lawyer (Wis... I don't want to remember his name) gave his instructions to the EC? One of his reported, published comments was that elections usually occur over a 30 day period (see one of the political threads in the last few days, I can't remember which one it was).

 

Far-fetched, crazy idea? Why?

 

I can imagine the Junta triumphantly touting that they said there would be an election, that having an election in advance of the ASEAN Chairmanship is a good thing, and that opposition parties have been calling for an election for years; now that they have one, they want a delay? Further, the opposition parties are not exactly running on full cylinders; why allow them to have time to get organized? The pro-Junta parties have been openly organizing for a while now; it is likely that they would be ready, or at least readier than the opposition. Finally, as part of the early election call, the Junta could say that they are worried about "disturbances" or "third-parties causing trouble" or some other such nonsense, so they dust off the rules of the referendum and use them; no criticizing the Junta, not real public discussion, etc etc etc.

 

Yes, it would be a gross violation of the rules of Democracy, but what does the Junta care; if they think that they can get away with it, why wouldn't they do it?

 

Yes, it is pure speculation on my part, but I will be watching the international community's reaction to the events in Cambodia quite closely...

 

If Hun Sen could get away with it, why not the Junta?

 

Anyone?

 

Great post, as usual. Whatever the date, I guess it is very likely the way they will proceed.

It is absolutely not in their interest to have a long enough period of free speech and political meetings allowing for collective opinions about the Junta to shape. So announcing suddenly election dates in 30 days would be a very good tactic.

 

However, according to their own laws, political parties must hold primaries before that. A weaver of the obligation to hold primary elections by art.44 may be a good advanced indicator that this tactic is preferred.

 

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, Eligius said:

It would not surprise me at all if the Pheua Thai Party is effectively banned or so watered down and slimmed down that it won't be able to mount a real challenge to Prayut.

Seem you got that partially right but not PTP yet. FFP's Thanatorn and 2 senior leaders have been charged for computer crime act. The rigging has started early. 

[Small Joke]

It's interesting that the Nation publishes these editorials. 

It is a right wing pro elitist organ,  and I wonder if it's just window dressing. 

It has enough firepower on it's board to influence the national mood in much stronger terms than this.

 

[zzaa09]

This continued dreamy talk of free and fair elections, open and numerous party participation, beholding to transpired legalities, vacant of influential shenanigans, blah blah.

 

All a bit disconcerting, actually - if one really understands how things are done here. 

 

OK. Lets speculate and conjure up fanciful hypotheticals - 

One of the popular opposition groups takes the election and overwhelms seats in both houses [which will be nullified] creating a great rift among traditional ruling elite and their seemingly hold on power. Talk of changes, a new and proper constitution is drafted, novel progressive exchanges take place, amnesty proclamations are declared, blah...blah...blah. 

 

Within a year [if that] all will be reversed by the usual coup or judicial dredge from power sponsored by the usual ruling crowd.

Reality.

[yellowboat]

54 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

This continued dreamy talk of free and fair elections, open and numerous party participation, beholding to transpired legalities, vacant of influential shenanigans, blah blah.

 

All a bit disconcerting, actually - if one really understands how things are done here. 

 

OK. Lets speculate and conjure up fanciful hypotheticals - 

One of the popular opposition groups takes the election and overwhelms seats in both houses [which will be nullified] creating a great rift among traditional ruling elite and their seemingly hold on power. Talk of changes, a new and proper constitution is drafted, novel progressive exchanges take place, amnesty proclamations are declared, blah...blah...blah. 

 

Within a year [if that] all will be reversed by the usual coup or judicial dredge from power sponsored by the usual ruling crowd.

Reality.

It is a well worn path protected by the incestuous golden circle of Thai Chinese and their room temperature IQ attack dogs dressed in green.  We are all just hoping the path will wear out one day, and what happened in Malaysia will happen here.  Blah blah blah that is hopeful is worth hearing.   

[cookieqw]

13 hours ago, jayboy said:

There is no need to disenfranchise the voters in the North and North East.One misconception on the part of many is that the actual polling process can be corrupted.Actually it can't these days without great difficulty and there's no need to question the polling result though of course it's useful to have independent foreign monitors.The problem is of course the military backed constitution which ensures that the will of the people is not reflected in the outcome, the constant threat of military intimidation backed up by the Junta's proxies in a Senate of stooges and placemen.The Junta is determined that its coup will not be wasted and we live with that.The election is something of a sideshow.Certainly the (generally) supine and cowardly (mainly Sino Thai) urban middle class are tiring of Prayuth but their selfishness and stupidity haven't changed nor has their interest in goons like Suthep.

surely the next government can write their own constitution as he did 

[jayboy]

10 hours ago, cookieqw said:

surely the next government can write their own constitution as he did 

Aren't there two key aspects? Yes, of course one generation of politicians cannot bind future generations.On the other hand in practical terms it's very difficult given the straitjacket applied by the Junta's constitution. with its conscious undermining of large political parties and its array of appointed stooges in the Senate.

[Eligius]

12 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Aren't there two key aspects? Yes, of course one generation of politicians cannot bind future generations.On the other hand in practical terms it's very difficult given the straitjacket applied by the Junta's constitution. with its conscious undermining of large political parties and its array of appointed stooges in the Senate.

Right! And all of this is ultimately backed up by the threat of force - by threatening to imprison or MURDER those who bravely dare to oppose the Powers That Should Not Be (who wield all the tanks, bombs and guns, after all). There is a descriptive term for such cliques:

 

DESPICABLE COWARDS!

 

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, cookieqw said:

surely the next government can write their own constitution as he did 

Only if the next government is led by PM Prayut or his pro-military surrogates!

Otherwise the "deck is stacked" against the next government through legal means.

 

The 2017 Constitution under Chapter XV "Amendment to the Constitution," Section 256*

the amendment must be approved paraphrasing in part by:

• (3) First Reading for adoption of principle - Senators comprising not less than one-third of the total number of existing members of the Senate must vote for approval.
• (6) Third and Final Reading Second Reading for promulgation - Senators of more than one-half of the total number of existing members of the Senate must vote for approval.

The initial Senate members are selected by a committee under the auspices of the junta.  Furthermore, if any of the NCPO (aka junta) members such as Generals Prayut and Prawit did not became the ministers of the NLA or the Executive Branch as a consequence of the next election, there are reserved six ex-officio seats in the Senate for the NCPO.

 

*  translation has been prepared by Legal Opinion and Translation Section, Foreign Law Division under the legal duty of the Office of the Council of State for information purpose only.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

Only if the next government is led by PM Prayut or his pro-military surrogates!

Otherwise the "deck is stacked" against the next government through legal means.

 

The 2017 Constitution under Chapter XV "Amendment to the Constitution," Section 256*

the amendment must be approved paraphrasing in part by:

• (3) First Reading for adoption of principle - Senators comprising not less than one-third of the total number of existing members of the Senate must vote for approval.
• (6) Third and Final Reading Second Reading for promulgation - Senators of more than one-half of the total number of existing members of the Senate must vote for approval.

The initial Senate members are selected by a committee under the auspices of the junta.  Furthermore, if any of the NCPO (aka junta) members such as Generals Prayut and Prawit did not became the ministers of the NLA or the Executive Branch as a consequence of the next election, there are reserved six ex-officio seats in the Senate for the NCPO.

 

*  translation has been prepared by Legal Opinion and Translation Section, Foreign Law Division under the legal duty of the Office of the Council of State for information purpose only.

I love your well-researched posts which lay out the laws, rules and regulations.

 

However, 'politics is the art of the possible'; in theory you cannot change the constitution, but I would point out that the old constitution (the one tossed out by Prayut) labeled coups as treason. Has Prayut been charged with treason?

 

If there is a change of regime, there can be a change of constitution.

 

Remember, this current one is... number 20 (?) since 1932. And when you have 20 or so constitutions in less than 100 years, NO constitution can be considered safe.