Its Happening - Law to Tax Overseas Income Now in Progress

[Spidey]

4 minutes ago, vogie said:

Did the internet make you rude and patronizing too?

Nope. That's reserved for Brexiteers.

[OneMoreFarang]

34 minutes ago, vogie said:

Did the internet make you rude and patronizing too?

No, I am always like this ?

 

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Stupooey said:

If it was due to bias, then it seems very strange that very nearly all the polls were biased in the same direction. One would have expected 52% of pollsters to be Leave voters and 48% to be Remain; perhaps they both thought their side would gain an advantage by putting Remain ahead, but it seems very unlikely.

Unprofessionalism I would agree with, insofar as - just like the UK Government - they mistakenly applied the same parameters to the Referendum as they would to a General Election. 

I still believe my original explanation, regarding the treatment of previous non-voters, is the most likely one. At least it is backed up by figures, you have just plucked two words from the air with no facts to back them up.

You wanted answers. I obviously don't have facts and this is not important enough for me to bother trying to find any. But when I give you my opinions (answers) you complain! These polls are likely to be biased, at least partially, as they were organised by pro-remain organisations, which have a real interest in ensuring that pro-remain results come out of these polls, meaning that the whole process is unprofessional. 

 

 

  

[vogie]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

really?

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

really?

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Yes really, it all depends which poll you believe, here is one that contradicts your link.

It was wrong last year at referendum crunch time. The last two polls before the count showed Britain remaining by 55% to 45% and 48% to 42%. No wonder Nigel Farage went to bed glum and woke up happy. It was wrong again on Thursday. Some of the polls on 7 June delivered Tory leads of seven points, 10 points, 12 points and 13 points. No wonder David Dimbleby’s jaw dropped when he opened the exit report.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jun/11/inaccurate-opinion-polls-got-us-into-this-mess-general-election-2017

 

But interestingly the link you provided offered another link stating that last week the leave camp had edged in front of remainers.

I suppose proving that polls are not worth the paper they are printed on.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a63c2ca-2d80-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc

 

 

 

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, vogie said:

 

Yes really, it all depends which poll you believe, here is one that contradicts your link.

It was wrong last year at referendum crunch time. The last two polls before the count showed Britain remaining by 55% to 45% and 48% to 42%. No wonder Nigel Farage went to bed glum and woke up happy. It was wrong again on Thursday. Some of the polls on 7 June delivered Tory leads of seven points, 10 points, 12 points and 13 points. No wonder David Dimbleby’s jaw dropped when he opened the exit report.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jun/11/inaccurate-opinion-polls-got-us-into-this-mess-general-election-2017

 

But interestingly the link you provided offered another link stating that last week the leave camp had edged in front of remainers.

I suppose proving that polls are not worth the paper they are printed on.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a63c2ca-2d80-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc

 

 

 

 

 

This is why the best way to use polls is in the aggregate, as fivethirtyeight.com does.

If you look at the various aggregators you'll see that they all showed a very tight race:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

 

And here's a not from fivethirtyeight.com about the relation between the number of persons sampled and the difference it makes:

"Polls are also weighted based on their sample size, although there are diminishing returns to bigger samples. Surveying 2,000 voters substantially reduces error compared with surveying 400 of them, but surveying 10,000 voters will produce only marginal improvements in accuracy compared with the 2,000-person survey.^3" 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-donald-trumps-approval-ratings/

[aright]

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

You know there is this wonderful invention called Internet. It allows people all over the world to look at news from all over the world. I read regularly articles from UK news, European news and even Al Jazeera. I read probably more than 100 articles which lots of facts why leaving the EU is a bad idea. I don't think I even read one article why leaving the EU would be good for the UK.

Obviously there are lots of articles like from Boris Johnson which make people dream about a better future. But without any meaningful facts. What do the hard Brexiters really want? Where is their detailed plan? They don't have a plan. They just criticize other people's plans.

I am not so ignorant that I think the EU is only good. It's obvious that the EU is far away from perfect. But it's still the best option.

People can dream how perfect this world would be without being in the EU. But it's exactly that, a dream. Reality is different.

And that brings us back to "uneducated and uninformed idiots". Smart people make decisions bases on reality and not on wonderful unrealistic dreams.

Smart people and Chimpanzees

In the most comprehensive study to date on expert predictions, Professor at the University of Pennsylvania , Phillip Tetlock, gathered a large group of experts to analyse their ability to predict future events. [1]

During this study, Tetlock asked the experts to predict the probability of various events occurring i.e. Would the dotcom bubble burst? And then, he would analyse how their thought processes came to these conclusions.

After 20 years of collecting and studying 82,361 forecasts from experts, Tetlock came to a comical conclusion. According to Tetlock, the average expert…

“Is not much better at predicting the future than a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

https://mayooshin.com/smart-people-bad-decisions/

[Stupooey]

5 hours ago, nauseus said:

You wanted answers. I obviously don't have facts and this is not important enough for me to bother trying to find any. But when I give you my opinions (answers) you complain! These polls are likely to be biased, at least partially, as they were organised by pro-remain organisations, which have a real interest in ensuring that pro-remain results come out of these polls, meaning that the whole process is unprofessional. 

 

 

  

I wanted counter-arguments, possibly to prove my theory wrong; what you gave me was two words with no explanation, exactly the type of response I was complaining about. I then just tried to flesh out your answers.

I don't know why you think the polls were all conducted by pro-remain organisations, or why they would try to falsify their results bearing in mind that they are judged by the accuracy of their predictions. It is also counter-productive to boost the figures of the side you want to win as this makes your supporters complacent and less likely to vote, as has been borne out by the Referendum result (most non-voters say they would have voted to remain).

 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Stupooey said:

I wanted counter-arguments, possibly to prove my theory wrong; what you gave me was two words with no explanation, exactly the type of response I was complaining about. I then just tried to flesh out your answers.

I don't know why you think the polls were all conducted by pro-remain organisations, or why they would try to falsify their results bearing in mind that they are judged by the accuracy of their predictions. It is also counter-productive to boost the figures of the side you want to win as this makes your supporters complacent and less likely to vote, as has been borne out by the Referendum result (most non-voters say they would have voted to remain).

 

 

 

 

Most funded organisations, campaigns and polls, post referendum, are pro-remain - they lost the referendum and their sponsors want to overturn the result. Re counter productivity, well, some people never learn.

[Stupooey]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Most funded organisations, campaigns and polls, post referendum, are pro-remain - they lost the referendum and their sponsors want to overturn the result. Re counter productivity, well, some people never learn.

But we were talking about pre-referendum polls, remember?

[Lancelot01]

On 9/5/2018 at 3:13 AM, loong said:

Absolutely meaningless

They must have been up all night working the percentages. 

[nauseus]

27 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

But we were talking about pre-referendum polls, remember?

Topic concerns polls from July this year.

[Stupooey]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Topic concerns polls from July this year.

So don't quote me when you're replying to a different scenario.

[Machiavelli]

16 hours ago, Spidey said:

Not exactly "knocked out of the park". She did get more votes than Trump.

If you say so?  Where is she president?

[OneMoreFarang]

9 hours ago, Machiavelli said:

On ‎9‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 6:01 AM, Spidey said:

Not exactly "knocked out of the park". She did get more votes than Trump.

If you say so?  Where is she president?

In her head - it seems she is not really a fan of reality.