Worrying Times ahead for the Aus Dollar

[Changbeer4me]

 

 

 

 

Hi,

 

Australian Dollar Down with posible more bad news ahead.

 

What to do , do you hold out hoping things will get bettter.

Or jump in that hope you can get a better rate than the mid to low 60's

talked about.

 

How do you handle times like this...?

 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-dollar/why-the-aussie-dollar-is-crashing/news-story/e84b1f08cd181b1235ed6930e64f4cdb

 

 

Changbeer4me

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Changbeer4me

[OJAS]

And things seem set to get even worse over the next 5 years if this prediction turns out to be true:-

 

https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/aud-thb-prediction

 

But at least you Aussies can console yourselves in the knowledge that we Poms could find ourselves in an even worse predicament!????

 

https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/gbp-thb-prediction

Edited October 5, 2018 by OJAS

[blackhorse]

If it does hit 50 cents to the usd then time to sell the bangkok condo for a massive exchange profit.

[totally thaied up]

Many people at the 19 mark could not get a retirement visa on a Stat Dec on a pension if this proves to be true. The dollar is to remain under a lot of pressure till 2020. We may only see an interest rate rise then but I would not count on it. We have been down in the low 50's before. I bought in a lot of money at 28 baht to keep my marriage visa. I am glad I did now. I think we are going to have hard times and if your an Aussie or a Brit, things are not going to get easier, prices are going up in Thailand and this place is not cheap anymore. I can hold out but I know a lot of Aussies that cannot and going home may be cheaper. I was always told to be careful about the FX rates when I moved and I can see why now. The AUD has been on a steady decline since I moved here 10 years ago and that direction is not going to change soon. One of my friends moved his whole cash holding into US dollars at $1.04. He his laughing all the way to the bank now. I should have done the same thing but 10 years ago, I did not know if I was going to stay here.

[blackhorse]

Many people at the 19 mark could not get a retirement visa on a Stat Dec on a pension if this proves to be true. The dollar is to remain under a lot of pressure till 2020. We may only see an interest rate rise then but I would not count on it. We have been down in the low 50's before. I bought in a lot of money at 28 baht to keep my marriage visa. I am glad I did now. I think we are going to have hard times and if your an Aussie or a Brit, things are not going to get easier, prices are going up in Thailand and this place is not cheap anymore. I can hold out but I know a lot of Aussies that cannot and going home may be cheaper. I was always told to be careful about the FX rates when I moved and I can see why now. The AUD has been on a steady decline since I moved here 10 years ago and that direction is not going to change soon. One of my friends moved his whole cash holding into US dollars at $1.04. He his laughing all the way to the bank now. I should have done the same thing but 10 years ago, I did not know if I was going to stay here.

Your friend did well but if we could all pick the highs and lows we would be retired in Monaco

[totally thaied up]

18 minutes ago, blackhorse said:

Your friend did well but if we could all pick the highs and lows we would be retired in Monaco

And with FX, we all know that is near impossible.

 

My friend transferred over mega dollars into US$ and had a vast amount of shares as well in the US market. I was trading fulltime the Australian market at the time (trading for my parent's Company). We still hold onto those shares now making a very nice profit but compared to my friend's trade he told me to make back then, we are miles behind. Sure, we had a few 10 bangers in micro-caps on the gas plays and pharma stocks, but nothing like he made on FX. It is just how much risk you want to take on but when the Aussie Dollar was trading at 1.08, I gather we were all too starry eyes to see the real facts to it all. Just look at our banking practices and next look into our nursing home practices to see how fake this all really was. Our housing market is cooling due to the banking practices and how tougher home loans are going to be to get. We see a sell-off from these highs coming but in time, a good buying opportunity will arise like it always does. I remember once getting 15% for my term deposits!

 

Things certainly have changed.

[mfd101]

As the $A falls, so the price of imported goods will rise, so inflation will rise, so the RBA will raise interest rates ... some time over the next 18 months.

[totally thaied up]

1 minute ago, mfd101 said:

As the $A falls, so the price of imported goods will rise, so inflation will rise, so the RBA will raise interest rates ... some time over the next 18 months.

A 25 basis point rise will do nothing for our dollar. Even 50 points will not matter. It will not steam the flood for some time. 18 months is a long way away and our dollar is in decline. I thought 24.50 was going to hold for some time but I feel 21-22 is coming before we see a reverse. Other forecasts I am seeing is from 19 upwards over the next 5 years but with FX, we can never tell. I sure hope I am wrong. The Trade War is only going to get worse. Trump will most likely get another term and the heat will only get hotter. 

[scorecard]

24 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

As the $A falls, so the price of imported goods will rise, so inflation will rise, so the RBA will raise interest rates ... some time over the next 18 months.

 

'Inflation will rise', I assume that's meaning inflation inside OZ will go up, meaning price rises for staples (and non staples), also possibly meaning rises in OZ pensions which (I guess) would also mean the same rises for OZ folks living outside of OZ and receiving the OZ OAP and war service pensions, etc. 

 

Comments very welcome...

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by scorecard

[simple1]

10 minutes ago, totally thaied up said:

A 25 basis point rise will do nothing for our dollar. Even 50 points will not matter. It will not steam the flood for some time. 18 months is a long way away and our dollar is in decline. I thought 24.50 was going to hold for some time but I feel 21-22 is coming before we see a reverse. Other forecasts I am seeing is from 19 upwards over the next 5 years but with FX, we can never tell. I sure hope I am wrong. The Trade War is only going to get worse. Trump will most likely get another term and the heat will only get hotter. 

A few weeks ago there was an article in The Australian talking to how the Trump tariff war with China and some other aggressive moves by Trump will damage the Oz dollar exchange rates, Oz GDP and cost of oil if not resolved in the near future. Cost of petrol in Oz is currently forecasted to cost AUD2.00 a litre by Xmas. AUD to Baht around 18 / 19 baht within a year. Hopefully incorrect, but...

[TPI]

6 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

'Inflation will rise', I wonder if that means pension will rise?

My wife and I are rolling in money now that the pension increase was a massive $9 a month split between both of us....yahoo!!!

[simple1]

4 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

'Inflation will rise', I wonder if that means pension will rise?

Age Pension rises based upon CPI. Morrison govt being fairly aggressive trying to minimise welfare costs.

[TPI]

4 minutes ago, simple1 said:

A few weeks ago there was an article in The Australian talking to how the Trump tariff war with China and some other aggressive moves by Trump will damage the Oz dollar exchange rates, Oz GDP and cost of oil if not resolved in the near future. Cost of petrol in Oz is currently forecasted to cost AUD2.00 a litre by Xmas. AUD to Baht around 18 / 19 baht within a year. Hopefully incorrect, but...

Crude oil and LPG are delivered from the NW shelf operators, who, held the WA government to ransom when they wrote the initial contracts. Why don't the voters of Oz hold their pollies to the fire and push them to change the pricing structure? Maybe the voters have the government they deserve?

[totally thaied up]

11 minutes ago, simple1 said:

A few weeks ago there was an article in The Australian talking to how the Trump tariff war with China and some other aggressive moves by Trump will damage the Oz dollar exchange rates, Oz GDP and cost of oil if not resolved in the near future. Cost of petrol in Oz is currently forecasted to cost AUD2.00 a litre by Xmas. AUD to Baht around 18 / 19 baht within a year. Hopefully incorrect, but...

I hope you are wrong.

 

7 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Age Pension rises based upon CPI. Morrison govt being fairly aggressive trying to minimise welfare costs.

Morrison is not pension or welfare friendly in the least. He foresaw changes over the welfare system and took away a lot of rights. I don't trust a word that comes from his mouth.

 

And yes, the voters now got what they deserved.

Edited October 5, 2018 by totally thaied up

[simple1]

8 minutes ago, TPI said:

Crude oil and LPG are delivered from the NW shelf operators, who, held the WA government to ransom when they wrote the initial contracts. Why don't the voters of Oz hold their pollies to the fire and push them to change the pricing structure? Maybe the voters have the government they deserve?

Petroleum is imported from Singapore.

[Changbeer4me]

On the ABC -The Business Tonight

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Changbeer4me

[Sparkles]

1 Oz dollar 22.9 baht  on XE Currency exchange web site today. Was 23.7 a couple of weeks back