Jump to content








Crunch time for Italy, Brexit as leaders convene in Brussels


rooster59

Recommended Posts

Crunch time for Italy, Brexit as leaders convene in Brussels

By Philip Blenkinsop

 

800x800.jpg

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Brussels, the political heart of Europe, could prove the center of global market focus next week as Italy's budget and Brexit talks overshadow economic data and central banks.

 

World shares were on course for their worst week since February as a spike in U.S. bond yields, a U.S.-China trade war and other global risks have combined to undermine sentiment.

 

One such risk is an impending dispute between Italy's eurosceptic government and the European Union over Rome's 2019 budget plans, which could lead the EU executive to the unprecedented move of rejecting it.

 

Euro zone countries, including Italy, have until Monday to submit their draft budgetary plans to the European Commission, winch which would have to warn Rome within a week if it planned to trigger the rejection process.

 

The populist Italian government plans a deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP next year, triple the previous administration's target, prompting investors to sell Italian bonds and pushing the country's borrowing costs to five-year high at a bond auction.

 

EU leaders meeting in Brussels from Wednesday to Friday are expected to spend time discussing Italy, even if it is not formally on the agenda of an exceptional three days of talks that will also see them meeting around 25 Asian leaders, including the prime ministers of China and Japan.

 

That agenda does include efforts to finalize a withdrawal deal with Britain.

 

Finding a way of ensuring an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland post-Brexit has been the main challenge, but the indications in the past two weeks are that both sides are inching towards a deal, boosting the pound.

 

"Now comes the crunch time," said economists at Commerzbank, adding that there was the risk of a sharp correction if negotiations drag on beyond the coming week.

 

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said Italy's budget and Brexit would be in sharp focus in the week ahead, along with the course of markets themselves.

 

"Are we going to get any calm returning to equity markets? There's a lot of unsettling concern about the combination of higher bond yields, geopolitical risk and the ongoing trade tensions," he said.

 

FED ON TRACK DESPITE TRUMP INVECTIVE

 

In terms of data, September retail sales from the United States are expected to reflect the strength of the world's largest economy with an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent, a 49-year low, and wages picking up.

 

The sales figures on Monday are seen up 0.5 percent in after a mere 0.1 percent increase in August, the smallest rise in six months.

 

Such data should confirm the Federal Reserve in its rate-cutting path, even if U.S. President Donald Trump has called it crazy. The Fed increased interest rates for a third time this year at the end of September and is expected to do so again.

 

"That's going to be keeping the Fed on a rates-hiking and tightening path, even though there is some concern in financial markets right now," said Knightley.

 

The week is set to round off with figures on Chinese economic growth on Friday. The average forecast for expansion in the third quarter is 6.6 percent, a shade lower than the 6.7 percent growth in the April-June period.

 

Anything lower than that could indicate that the trade war with Washington, as well as a slowing property market, could be dragging down the world's second-largest economy.

 

Trade figures from China on Friday showed China's trade surplus with the United States hit a record high in September.

 

The data showed solid expansion in China's overall imports and exports, suggesting little damage from the tit-for-tat tariffs with the United States, though that could provoke a reaction from Trump.

 

 
reuters_logo.jpg
-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-10-13
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Not sure this will help with progress over Brexit. The can is still being kicked down the road by the UK and the media hype continues unabated.  Latest seems to be that you won't be able to get Netflix in Europe and the Eurostar may stop running if there is a no deal Brexit.  Really scraping the barrel and still October is only half way through!  There will probably be panic soon as to whether we can still buy French fries or Spanish omelettes!

 

I know this all goes down as project fear but I don't think it is. I believe it is just the media's way of filling the pages of their newspapers.  

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't anyone remember the  predictions of doom, armageddon, the end of the world, as the year 2000 loomed closer and closer??

 

this is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

"Crunch time for Italy and Brexit....." - NO it is crunch time for the EU itself and good riddance.

And Whatsupdoc replied:

Why?

 

Because Italy's Eurosceptic Government will react adversely if the EU rejects its proposed Budget, as is probable, and the EU's serious problems with Hungary and Poland to mention just two, plus Brexit, the trade war, Merkel's instability, and the fact that potential new members tend to be very poor nations with their hands out, may all prove to be the catalyst for other countries wanting to follow the UK's example.  In which case, it will be interesting to see how many of them will honour the EU's version of a divorce settlement.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

 

"Crunch time for Italy and Brexit....." - NO it is crunch time for the EU itself and good riddance.

And Whatsupdoc replied:

Why?

 

Because Italy's Eurosceptic Government will react adversely if the EU rejects its proposed Budget, as is probable, and the EU's serious problems with Hungary and Poland to mention just two, plus Brexit, the trade war, Merkel's instability, and the fact that potential new members tend to be very poor nations with their hands out, may all prove to be the catalyst for other countries wanting to follow the UK's example.  In which case, it will be interesting to see how many of them will honour the EU's version of a divorce settlement.

Let us not forget Latvia and its recent pro - Russian election result.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

 

"Crunch time for Italy and Brexit....." - NO it is crunch time for the EU itself and good riddance.

And Whatsupdoc replied:

Why?

 

Because Italy's Eurosceptic Government will react adversely if the EU rejects its proposed Budget, as is probable, and the EU's serious problems with Hungary and Poland to mention just two, plus Brexit, the trade war, Merkel's instability, and the fact that potential new members tend to be very poor nations with their hands out, may all prove to be the catalyst for other countries wanting to follow the UK's example.  In which case, it will be interesting to see how many of them will honour the EU's version of a divorce settlement.

A lot of assumptions, many quite unlikely. I do not think there is even one other country (besides the UK) that seriously considers leaving the EU. It all seems wishful thinking by people that, for reasons that are incomprehensible to me, dislike the EU or even wish it harmed.

Most, if not all, countries benefit from being a member of the EU. Maybe for Russia or Trump's America the demise of the EU would be a good thing but certainly not for the EU citizens themselves.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

A lot of assumptions, many quite unlikely. I do not think there is even one other country (besides the UK) that seriously considers leaving the EU.

If that's the case why doesn't the EU give everyone a vote to stay or leave? Of course they won't. France, Holland and others would jump ship. even their leaders have said that.  I don't wish the EU harm I just don't want to be controlled by them and get tainted as a racist or bigot for not wanting to stay within the EU. The rhetoric often sprouted.  The EU is a protectionist racquet often bullying nations. The UK people have known this and have stood up to them. Let the UK leave and stop trying to make the people feel guilty and inferior. The EU should try a bit of democracy and give everyone a vote if their club is so wonderful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

If that's the case why doesn't the EU give everyone a vote to stay or leave? Of course they won't. France, Holland and others would jump ship. even their leaders have said that.  I don't wish the EU harm I just don't want to be controlled by them and get tainted as a racist or bigot for not wanting to stay within the EU. The rhetoric often sprouted.  The EU is a protectionist racquet often bullying nations. The UK people have known this and have stood up to them. Let the UK leave and stop trying to make the people feel guilty and inferior. The EU should try a bit of democracy and give everyone a vote if their club is so wonderful.

The EU doesn't give votes (except for its parliament), it it up to the individual countries whether or not to organise a referendum about EU membership.

Your assumption that the citizens of Holland and France would vote to leave is nonsense, please provide proof if you make statements like that.

The EU is letting the UK leave. Article 50 is triggered, nothing more needed. If the UK wants it can easily just crash out and enjoy their new status.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

The EU doesn't give votes (except for its parliament), it it up to the individual countries whether or not to organise a referendum about EU membership.

Your assumption that the citizens of Holland and France would vote to leave is nonsense, please provide proof if you make statements like that.

The EU is letting the UK leave. Article 50 is triggered, nothing more needed. If the UK wants it can easily just crash out and enjoy their new status.

https://metro.co.uk/2018/01/21/france-probably-voted-leave-eu-says-emmanuel-macron-7247197/

 

Macron also said it on the Andrew Marr show.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/243659/holland-wants-its-own-in-out-referendum-on-leaving-the-eu/

 

Anyway it is over many different sources. I thought you would have known that.

 

So the EU are letting the UK leave. Really! In fact they are doing their best to stop the UK leaving.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

https://metro.co.uk/2018/01/21/france-probably-voted-leave-eu-says-emmanuel-macron-7247197/

 

Macron also said it on the Andrew Marr show.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/243659/holland-wants-its-own-in-out-referendum-on-leaving-the-eu/

 

Anyway it is over many different sources. I thought you would have known that.

 

So the EU are letting the UK leave. Really! In fact they are doing their best to stop the UK leaving.

 

Your data for Holland are really history. The pollster mentioned in the article now comes to very different results. Better use some more recent data. Just an example:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-poll/poll-shows-support-for-eu-at-35-year-high-across-bloc-idUSKCN1IO2SP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

https://metro.co.uk/2018/01/21/france-probably-voted-leave-eu-says-emmanuel-macron-7247197/

 

Macron also said it on the Andrew Marr show.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/243659/holland-wants-its-own-in-out-referendum-on-leaving-the-eu/

 

Anyway it is over many different sources. I thought you would have known that.

 

So the EU are letting the UK leave. Really! In fact they are doing their best to stop the UK leaving.

 

got some actual polling data to support that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...