Am I the only one who has noticed that the Dow Jones is down 1,000 points this week, and its only Tuesday. (US). I understand that FOX etc only ever reports the gains but it appears to be largely overlooked in the media. Is this the new normal ? How big does a drop need to be before its in the news ?

Well if you read more than Fox you would have known its being reported. Plus click on the little button that says "Fox Business" and you will see it being discussed.

 

Regardless: No.

USD - THB is @ 33 to the buck right now. how can that be bad?

i’m now down 9 per cent from when my investments peaked almost exactly 2 months ago- how i wish i had sold the lot on that day...now too late will just have to sit it out...agh...


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15 minutes ago, strikingsunset said:

i’m now down 9 per cent from when my investments peaked almost exactly 2 months ago- how i wish i had sold the lot on that day...now too late will just have to sit it out...agh...

And if it goes down another 9% you will say the same thing again?

yes


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16 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

Well if you read more than Fox you would have known its being reported. Plus click on the little button that says "Fox Business" and you will see it being discussed.

 

Regardless: No.

Yes, its being discussed etc but not to the level one would expect. A quick flick around the channels this morning and its less important than Ivanka's emails and marginally more important than a tap dancing dog. Nowadays it seems a 4-5% hit on the Dow Jones isnt much of an issue. A couple of years ago it would have been Armageddon.

 

26 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Nowadays it seems a 4-5% hit on the Dow Jones isnt much of an issue. A couple of years ago it would have been Armageddon.

Well look where it was a few years ago. Losing an eye is only Armageddon if you only have one.

I'm less concerned about the drop in the Dow as I am the drop in the FTSE, the NASDAQ, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, SET and the CAC.

52 minutes ago, strikingsunset said:

yes

If the FED raises rates in Dec which they will, you'll be wanting to sell now methinks.

I sold 75% of my stocks two months ago when the Fed seemed intent on slowing growth. The other 25% are long term investments. I'm going to wait for another drop before I consider getting back in.

It has been hysterical again with all time highs, how long can it go on? Certainly not forever. People tend to forget what eventually must happen, it's 10 years since the last crash. I'll wait until i see -30% from the top before i even consider buying again.

The difference this time (from 2008) is the massive amounts of debt saddling so many countries in the world.  We are all looking and waiting for the Black Swan.  No one knows in advance which particular small snowflake will cause the avalanche.

What people seem to overlook is that the gains in S&P - NASDAQ etc indexes of the past years have been the result of the stock price increase of a few very large cap stocks.

 

Those large cap stocks have been tanking considerably lately, and thereby pulling the small cap stocks down with them, which results in the declines of the indexes

A great quote to remember:

“time in the market is more important than timing the market. “

 

Of course, personal circumstances are also important but unless you need money today, then why worry about selling/getting out of the market.. if you’re at an advanced age where you can’t afford a major drop/correction in the market (I.e. not enough time to make up for losses) then you should already have rebalanced your portfolio to match your circumstances.

 

At least its not Brexit and who cares spring to mind????

If your time horizon is more than 10 years, stick to your strategy.

If your time horizon is shorter, you should have less exposure to stocks.

 

7 hours ago, strikingsunset said:

i’m now down 9 per cent from when my investments peaked almost exactly 2 months ago- how i wish i had sold the lot on that day...now too late will just have to sit it out...agh...


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I had planned to sell a large portion of my portfolio before the midterm elections but I missed the window. I think it’s probably too late to sell and need to ride out the wave.

 

 But I think more relisting way is to evaluate change in value over a least a 1 to 2 yearperiod I want to know I have more money 

I hope to see increases from year to year and not worry about month to month changes. During Obama I think I lost about 20% but gained it back and more under Trump

3 minutes ago, Benroon said:

Lows are buying opportunities 

BTFD!

6 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I'm less concerned about the drop in the Dow as I am the drop in the FTSE, the NASDAQ, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, SET and the CAC.

And don't forget oil (good for consumers, not so much for producers) and cryptos...

 

High Yield corporate bonds are down for a record 9 consecutive days (your friend is not gonna be happy).

 

From their highs:

 

• Dow Industrials -9.2%

• S&P -10.2% (Correction)

• Dow Transports -12.1% (Correction)

• Nasdaq Composite -15.1% (Correction)

• Nasdaq 100 -15.3% (Correction)

• Russell 2000 -15.6% (Correction)

6 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And don't forget oil (good for consumers, not so much for producers) and cryptos...

 

High Yield corporate bonds are down for a record 9 consecutive days (your friend is not gonna be happy).

 

From their highs:

 

• Dow Industrials -9.2%

• S&P -10.2% (Correction)

• Dow Transports -12.1% (Correction)

• Nasdaq Composite -15.1% (Correction)

• Nasdaq 100 -15.3% (Correction)

• Russell 2000 -15.6% (Correction)

I'm invested across all the indices I mentioned, almost everything in managed funds, in total I'm down 6% which is not good.

not just the markets. housing in Australia is on the way down as aussies on interest only mortgages are forced onto principle and interest. some economists are predicting up to 40% declines. the 'almost everything bubble' is about to rupture. this will be the side effect of low interest rates. a crash every 10 years or so.

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I'm invested across all the indices I mentioned, almost everything in managed funds, in total I'm down 6% which is not good.

You certainly know better than me, but maybe you should consider cutting your losses before they become much bigger...

 

It is not possible to say if this is the Big One, but if it is, then 6% is going to look like a very good deal, compared with what's to come...

With the initiation of the Tchump tariffs, everyone should have seen this coming.  Look at the overall historical record of tariffs, which make everything much more expensive and uncertain for producers and consumers.  They throw a wrench into the wealth-creating nexus of investment, innovation, trade, cooperation and optimism. 

 

Only a clueless idiot says that “trade wars are good and easy to win.”  Brace for a storm. 

13 minutes ago, Zenwind said:

With the initiation of the Tchump tariffs, everyone should have seen this coming.  Look at the overall historical record of tariffs, which make everything much more expensive and uncertain for producers and consumers.  They throw a wrench into the wealth-creating nexus of investment, innovation, trade, cooperation and optimism. 

Tariffs don't help, but the foremost cause is the end of ZIRP (Z for zero) and of quantitative easing (a.k.a. money creation) almost everywhere.

 

As they say, the Fed has removed the punch bowl...the markets now have to stand on their feet by themselves...which is not easy when everyone is drunk...

Edited November 21, 20187 yr by Brunolem

Blame Trump!

On the other hand if you have a substantial amount invested in gold, one could actually cheer the DOW is down and hope for an even more dramatic decline as is bound to happen sooner or later what with al the developed countries in the world piling on more and more debt.

14 minutes ago, Zenwind said:

With the initiation of the Tchump tariffs, everyone should have seen this coming.  Look at the overall historical record of tariffs, which make everything much more expensive and uncertain for producers and consumers.  They throw a wrench into the wealth-creating nexus of investment, innovation, trade, cooperation and optimism. 

 

Only a clueless idiot says that “trade wars are good and easy to win.”  Brace for a storm. 

I would agree, "free" trade is a whole lot different to "equal" trade. Nobody makes any money if you sell something then are forced to buy something back from the person you sold to, for equal value. Apple makes money selling us iphones, they wouldn't make much if they then have to buy something from us to an equal value.

34 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I'm invested across all the indices I mentioned, almost everything in managed funds, in total I'm down 6% which is not good.

On the face of it you may well think that, but then again what has been your long-term gain/return since you first invested in these indices, and how long has it been and what was your anticipated duration?

 

You may well find that over the time you have been invested, you have made "good returns" and now is just yet another one of what the market often does, a correction.

 

I will add a rider to that, inasmuch as IMO we have the potential gatherings of a "perfect storm" this especially when I read the following this morning in the NZ Herald, which frightened the bejesus out of me as I thought we had learnt a lesson from the last CDO fiasco...….

 

"Indeed, as Bloomberg Opinion's Noah Smith points out, nonfinancial corporate debt has just hit an all-time high as a share of the economy. And, as you'd expect when so many loans are being made so quickly, a lot of it looks quite risky. Companies that already have a lot of debt have been some of the biggest borrowers recently - the $1.3 trillion "leveraged loan" market. But, despite that, there's been so much competition among lenders to make these loans that they haven't been requiring a lot of protection for themselves if things go bad.

 

In a certain foreboding sense, that's understandable. That's because, by and large, they aren't holding onto these loans themselves but are rather bundling them together into securities known as "collateralized loan obligations" (CLOs) to sell to investors. That, thanks to the magic of modern finance, lets them turn a big chunk of their BBB-rated corporate loans into AAA-rated bonds, since there should be safety in numbers: Any single borrower might default, but the chance that most of them would at the same time should be negligible. At least it is according to their mathematical models, which, as we know, are never . . . never mind".

 

If you are in for the long term and another 10 years or more, then staying put may well be a good option but then again only you can decide how much risk you can bear, and even if you want to do it?

2 minutes ago, Kurtf said:

On the other hand if you have a substantial amount invested in gold, one could actually cheer the DOW is down and hope for an even more dramatic decline as is bound to happen sooner or later what with al the developed countries in the world piling on more and more debt.

Gold is a great hedge at the moment, I have some direct gold shares (one share is 0.01 of one ounce of gold) and like clockwork when everything else is down, they are up.