Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[tebee]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

Agree, and caused by those who voted remain, and then refused to accept the Democratic decision of their fellow citizens.

The problem is that any mature democracy that uses refernda in it's democratic processes knows that if a referendum affects major constitutional issues and that reforedum is to be binding it needs to have a supermajority of at least 10-15%   - otherwise we see precisely what we have now - a fracture of the country 50/50.

 

Stupid mistakes were made - the referendum didn't  need a supermajority because it was non-binding - there some said they would accept it as binding. So now we have a broken country - both it and both political parties are possibly irrevocably split.   

 

You might get brexit - but will the price be worth paying ?

 

I don't think our current democratic system will survive it . The Britain we all know is already dead - I worry about what will replace it. 

[talahtnut]

36 minutes ago, tebee said:

The problem is that any mature democracy that uses refernda in it's democratic processes knows that if a referendum affects major constitutional issues and that reforedum is to be binding it needs to have a supermajority of at least 10-15%   - otherwise we see precisely what we have now - a fracture of the country 50/50.

 

Stupid mistakes were made - the referendum didn't  need a supermajority because it was non-binding - there some said they would accept it as binding. So now we have a broken country - both it and both political parties are possibly irrevocably split.   

 

You might get brexit - but will the price be worth paying ?

 

I don't think our current democratic system will survive it . The Britain we all know is already dead - I worry about what will replace it. 

tebee, have you got one of the sandwich boards

with 'The end of the world is nigh' written on it.

Honestly, you worry too much about doom and

gloom. Get out and have a bit of fun for the New

Year mate.

[melvinmelvin]

the monkey, boboon, commented, in despair?, further up,

dunno where we go from this;

 

neither do I, but a comment

 

EU has no interest in a no deal Brexit

if there should be a snappy change of government in UK, underlining snappy

(no, not bojo replacing tm, but a non tory replacing tm)

 

one should not exclude the possibility of going back to eu and ask for changes  to deal,

of course one must be down to earth with the wish list and concrete with wishes

and it must be win-win oriented, must be juice for eu  in this

 

such will require that tory recognizes that they have messed brexit up and then step aside

 

not likely to happen as politicians are allergic to admitting mistakes and act accordingly

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

tebee, have you got one of the sandwich boards

with 'The end of the world is nigh' written on it.

Honestly, you worry too much about doom and

gloom. Get out and have a bit of fun for the New

Year mate.

agree

he probably missed out on the Beau Nov in November also

 

France is brilliant for seafood

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

"interesting"? developments

 

quite long time ago Cameron "promised" vote on EU membership

 

the referendum on EU came to fruition

PM Cameron was quite clear; whatever you guys decide the government will implement, up to you

referendum held

result, majority leave

Cameron jumped ship

TM grabbed the tiller

Brexit means Brexit

 

fairly clear policy from the top, brexit means brexit

 

two unfortunate court case deliberations - no PM can not bypass parliament

 

OK, still, Brexit means Brexit

 

think think think

 

A50 triggered

 

think (not enough) GE, enjoyed majority lost, PM ending up getting DUPed

 

no deal is better than bad deal - new cabinet slogan

 

year and a half with EU; chat chat chat chat chat

outcome; a dreadful deal, fairly crappish in my view

 

since A50  bill was passed, parliament has done roughly zilch

 

deal is on the table - parliament is pissed off - half cabinet is pissed off - DUP is pissed off

 

the choice is widening now;

PM offers, my-deal - no-deal - no-Brexit

 

from Cameron's we implement what you decide and TM's Brexit means Brexit we now have a huge menu

parliament is drowning in options

 

Corbyn's non conf in PM is on the table

may-deal is on the table

hard brexit is on the table

non conf in government may surface

revoke A50 is up in the air

2nd  referendum is frequently aired

going back to EU is aired  by Labour (that is roughly half the electorate)

 

and quite surely, I  have missed some items

 

since the clear policy view by Cameron and TM three years ago

a LOT of work has been invested in producing MESS and chaos

 

now,

whatever happens with Brexit, there are lessons to be learned  from this process

one  would hope that UK is up to learning from it and fix shortcomings so it doesn't happen again

 

(if I  were a UK mechanic I know where I would start)

 

 

 

[elliss]

9 hours ago, billd766 said:

I used to be but when I voted to leave I fully expected a drop in the forex rate but I hadn't expected so much for so long.

 

 

  May i humbly suggest , you Google  the five  year forecast on  Gbp / Thb  exchange  rates , 

    predicted  to be as low as  36,  if we are  lucky .

     

   

[baboon]

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

since the clear policy view by Cameron and TM three years ago

a LOT of work has been invested in producing MESS and chaos

'Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence...'

[melvinmelvin]

9 minutes ago, baboon said:

'Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence...'

its a bit worse than incompetence in the sense of stupidity

 

after decades of EU membership UK doesn't really have a lot

of clever civil servants with adequate experience to handle these issues

 

same goes for trade, trade negotiators of high quality are few and far between in UK

the EU is doing all the dealings

UK has some very good ones, but they work for the Commission

[billd766]

24 minutes ago, elliss said:

  May i humbly suggest , you Google  the five  year forecast on  Gbp / Thb  exchange  rates , 

    predicted  to be as low as  36,  if we are  lucky .

     

   

I don't believe that ANY financial forecast will be in anyway accurate for a period of longer than 6 months.

 

To quote a former UK Prime minister, Harold Wilson, A week is a long time in politics

 

What would happen to the THB/GBP exchange rate if the current government loses the coming election and the military has another coup in 3 months time?

 

What if the new government becomes a coalition government and has enough votes to tear up the current constitution?

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

 

 

So you are unable to provide any supporting evidence to support your claim of " He's a nasty young BNP punk "

I take you know he is 37 years old

Matthew Goodwin is Lecturer in Politics in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, and an Associate Fellow of Chatham House. His substantive research interests are political extremism, voting behaviour and immigration. He is the author of New British Fascism: Rise of the British National Party, and co-editor of The New Extremism in TwentyFirst Century Britain (both published by Routledge). His research has been published in leading academic journals, including the European Journal of Political Research, the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, and Political Studies. Drawing on this research, Dr Goodwin has advised governmental and other agencies on these issues, including the Home Office, Cabinet Office, Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), local authorities and security services. He is a frequent panellist at international conferences and regular media commentator, including in the Economist, New York Times, Guardian and Financial Times, and on Newsnight and Westminster Hour. From 2007 to 2010, he was based at the University of Manchester where he was an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Postdoctoral Research Follow. His research in this area has also been partly funded by the British Academy.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/r0911_goodwin.pdf

 

Irish whisky is so much better than scotch whisky

 

 t

You have your opinion

 

And I have the right to ignore your opinion.

 

BTW Irish Whisky?

[RickG16]

The MPs don't realise they need to put their political beliefs aside and back a deal to get us out of this hole. It isn't going to please everybody, but the alternative is worse for everybody. 

[elliss]

15 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I don't believe that ANY financial forecast will be in anyway accurate for a period of longer than 6 months.

 

To quote a former UK Prime minister, Harold Wilson, A week is a long time in politics

 

What would happen to the THB/GBP exchange rate if the current government loses the coming election and the military has another coup in 3 months time?

 

What if the new government becomes a coalition government and has enough votes to tear up the current constitution?

 

        i admire , your optimism ..    military coup , in the UK ,   i will second that motion brother.

Edited January 2, 2019 by elliss

[RickG16]

49 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

"interesting"? developments

 

quite long time ago Cameron "promised" vote on EU membership

 

the referendum on EU came to fruition

PM Cameron was quite clear; whatever you guys decide the government will implement, up to you

referendum held

result, majority leave

Cameron jumped ship

TM grabbed the tiller

Brexit means Brexit

 

fairly clear policy from the top, brexit means brexit

 

two unfortunate court case deliberations - no PM can not bypass parliament

 

OK, still, Brexit means Brexit

 

think think think

 

A50 triggered

 

think (not enough) GE, enjoyed majority lost, PM ending up getting DUPed

 

no deal is better than bad deal - new cabinet slogan

 

year and a half with EU; chat chat chat chat chat

outcome; a dreadful deal, fairly crappish in my view

 

since A50  bill was passed, parliament has done roughly zilch

 

deal is on the table - parliament is pissed off - half cabinet is pissed off - DUP is pissed off

 

the choice is widening now;

PM offers, my-deal - no-deal - no-Brexit

 

from Cameron's we implement what you decide and TM's Brexit means Brexit we now have a huge menu

parliament is drowning in options

 

Corbyn's non conf in PM is on the table

may-deal is on the table

hard brexit is on the table

non conf in government may surface

revoke A50 is up in the air

2nd  referendum is frequently aired

going back to EU is aired  by Labour (that is roughly half the electorate)

 

and quite surely, I  have missed some items

 

since the clear policy view by Cameron and TM three years ago

a LOT of work has been invested in producing MESS and chaos

 

now,

whatever happens with Brexit, there are lessons to be learned  from this process

one  would hope that UK is up to learning from it and fix shortcomings so it doesn't happen again

 

(if I  were a UK mechanic I know where I would start)

 

 

 

You've done a great job of summarising the mess without offering any solutions.

[baboon]

16 minutes ago, billd766 said:

What would happen to the THB/GBP exchange rate if the current government loses the coming election and the military has another coup in 3 months time?

It would probably shoot up. The Baht, that is...

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, evadgib said:

There isn't a HARD brexit; it's only ever been leave!

So get on with it, I say, and stop blaming everyone else.

 

 

[tebee]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

tebee, have you got one of the sandwich boards

with 'The end of the world is nigh' written on it.

Honestly, you worry too much about doom and

gloom. Get out and have a bit of fun for the New

Year mate.

I had a burst pipe in my kitchen at 6pm new years eve - I'm still pulling out the wreaked units and putting new ones in !

 

It's at times like this I miss Thai concrete kitchens ..... 

[talahtnut]

52 minutes ago, elliss said:

  May i humbly suggest , you Google  the five  year forecast on  Gbp / Thb  exchange  rates , 

    predicted  to be as low as  36,  if we are  lucky .

     

   

Yeah the Thai economy is tough as old boots,

whereas the UK economy is run by loonies, it

cant even feed its population without importing

grub. When this Ponzi scheme starts to lean over,

the pound won't buy you a f,,, tong in the market.

[billd766]

20 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

        i admire , your optimism ..    military coup , in the UK ,   i will second that motion brother.

Sigh.

[elliss]

8 minutes ago, RickG16 said:

You've done a great job of summarising the mess without offering any solutions.

Really the OP states  he was  a mechanic ,  a good quality  working class  man he would know where to start,

    SCRAP IT , 

[RickG16]

5 minutes ago, elliss said:

Really the OP states  he was  a mechanic ,  a good quality  working class  man he would know where to start,

    SCRAP IT , 

Scrap what exactly? Care to elaborate?

 

As you are a self confessed "alien in LOS" who has "burned his bridges", I'd be interested in your solution. Sure it will have the UK's best interests at heart ????

Edited January 2, 2019 by RickG16

[evadgib]

4 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

So get on with it, I say, and stop blaming everyone else.

For what? Securing our escape...? I can't see any of the people you believe you're just ridiculed getting the hump over that! ????

[melvinmelvin]

29 minutes ago, RickG16 said:

You've done a great job of summarising the mess without offering any solutions.

 

come week of 14th January a solution may surface

unless TM changes  her mind again may-deal is up for voting

if it flies - thats the way then -

 

next step will be to ensure that the process following 29th March is meaningful

in my view that means getting rid of TM asap

but alas, if may-deal flies politicians will be inclined to stay with her

so she will be in good position to crap down after 29 March negotiations

 

 

may-deal voted down?

no-deal Brexit then me thinks

 

----

alternatively parliament gets rid of TM asap,

as soon as they are back after xmas,

take charge - debate the issue - synthesize what they want - and do it

including consulting with EU

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by melvinmelvin

[evadgib]

Here is the PMs somewhat optimistic NY message:

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by evadgib

[talahtnut]

13 minutes ago, tebee said:

I had a burst pipe in my kitchen at 6pm new years eve - I'm still pulling out the wreaked units and putting new ones in !

 

It's at times like this I miss Thai concrete kitchens ..... 

Damn, sorry about that mate, them old EU regulation

pipes was it? fit British Standard quality pipes,

no probs. You are a good writer, and I like stuff

you say, but its usually wrong.  All the best for

the New Year, T.

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, LucysDad said:

 

 

A chalk and cheese argument.

 

You cannot compare life and death with politics.

 

 

What would you like - the best of 3 at every general election just because you couldn't trust (didn't like) the first result.

Are you really trying to tell people that general elections and leaving the EU are not chalk and cheese?

Leaving the EU will be a life changing event for many and only the emotionally paranoid would not recognise the need in the light of better understanding to reconfirm that change, but you probably think it would be better for students to take the exam before they do the course.

[talahtnut]

9 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Here's the PMs somewhat optimistic NY message:

 

Waffling b woman,  no mention of anything as important

as the bank lending to support industry.

[evadgib]

20 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Are you really trying to tell people that general elections and leaving the EU are not chalk and cheese?

Leaving the EU will be a life changing event for many and only the emotionally paranoid would not recognise the need in the light of better understanding to reconfirm that change, but you probably think it would be better for students to take the exam before they do the course.

...& take it again afterwards if they fail?

[elliss]

55 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

come week of 14th January a solution may surface

unless TM changes  her mind.

  

   Indeed  , our  democratically   elected Prime Minister , 

  will state , that  it is not in the best public  interests , that our democratically elected, incompetent Parliamentary members should be given the  vote on such  an important decision.

.

   Therefore , Mister  Speaker , i  am morally bound , in the best interests , of the people of Britain,

         to humbly  apply , for another  extension, on the previous  extensions ,  Merci, mon ami .

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by elliss

[melvinmelvin]

29 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

 

you know,

if smth like that surfaced, wouldn't surprise me a sec.

 

[tebee]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Irish Whisky?

Irish whiskey surly ....