Baht Forecast to Appreciate Q1 2019

[Banana7]

A major securities firm in Thailand has forecast the baht to appreciate in Q1 2019 due to optimism before the election in February and US Federal Reserve slowing interest rate increases. Also US and China are expected to reach agreement on trade thus improving the global economy. On the negative side, GDP growth has slowed from Q1 2018 to Q3, going from 4.9% to 3.3%. Foreigners sold net 13.88 billion baht of shares in November.

 

In the last couple of years, the baht has depreciated against USD, in the second half of December, may be due transfer payments and dividend payments. Second half of December maybe a good time to load-up on baht.

 

What your thoughts on Baht appreciation for Q1 2019?

 

 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Banana7

[trd]

My thoughts are that I am totally against it. [emoji846]

[madmen]

That should force even more brits home which is not such a bad thing

[janclaes47]

9 hours ago, Banana7 said:

A major securities firm in Thailand has forecast the baht to appreciate in Q1 2019 due to optimism before the election in February and US Federal Reserve slowing interest rate increases.

Well i'm sure that as with every other weatherman financial markets forecast, there will be another major securities firrm who predicts the opposite.

 

9 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Also US and China are expected to reach agreement on trade

They couldn't be more wrong about that. Did you read the statements from both US and China after their leaders met? They contradict each other on about everything that has been agreed or not agreed on. You have just seen the start of the trade war, but the so called 90 day truce was just an attempt from Trump to stop the declining stock market. Not a chance that anything will be agreed on after those 90 days.

 

9 hours ago, Banana7 said:

US Federal Reserve slowing interest rate increases.

There was a statement from the fed, for the same reasons as the trade truce, that they would slow down. After 2 days of market recovery, the fed made another statement that actually made cleear that there is still plenty of space and reasons for rate increases.

 

9 hours ago, Banana7 said:

In the last couple of years, the baht has depreciated against USD,

The USD has tanked against about every other currency in the world, including the THB, and so has the Euro and GBP.

[direction BANGKOK]

I do not understand these predictions. If someone knew what a currency was going to do, wouldn't they just shup up and make a million bucks? Totally useless.

 

It is all about that scene from wolf of wall street with Mathew Mconeghey tells us how nobody knows anything. 

[trd]

That should force even more brits home which is not such a bad thing

Why would that not be such a bad thing?