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Election a key factor’ in 2019 growth


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Election a key factor’ in 2019 growth

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT 
THE NATION

 

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Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president of the Global Business Development and Strategy Group under Krungthai Bank, warns that political instability may have a harmful impact on the Thai economy.

 

THAILAND’S economic growth in 2019 will hinge on the upcoming election, according to a Krungthai Bank expert.

 

The Krungthai Macro Research team has forecast that the Thai economy will grow at 4.1 per cent in 2019, down from 4.3 per cent in 2018. 

The key growth engine for 2019 will be investments from both the public and private sectors. 

 

Exports and tourism, the growth drivers in 2018, have withered under the weight of global uncertainties, said Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president of the Global Business Development and Strategy Group under Krungthai Bank. 

 

Private investment in 2019 is expected to grow by 5.5 per cent, while public investment is predicted at 7.2 per cent, he told reporters at a press conference yesterday. 

 

“However, the level of investment in 2019 will depend on the election process as well as the post-election stability,” he explained. “Investors are holding off their investments to see whether the political situation in Thailand will be stable after the election.”

 

“This has led us to expect GDP growth in the first two quarters of this year to be under 4 per cent, with growth picking up in the last two quarters,” he said. 

 

Date up in the air 

 

Usually, investors will wait for different parties to unveil their economic policies in the lead-up to the election, according to Phacharaphot. 

 

However, with the date of the election still up in the air, there is a level of uncertainty, which may threaten the Kingdom’s growth prospects, he said.

 

“As investment will be the key growth driver in 2019, and the election is a key determinant of investment trends, the level of political stability leading up to and after the election will have a significant impact on the Thai economy,” he said. However, if the current government’s infrastructure investment plans are continued throughout the year, public investment will still drive Thailand’s economic growth, Phacharaphot said.

 

For example, the infrastructure development plan in the Eastern Economic Corridor through Public Private Partnership projects has attracted up to Bt650 billion in total investment, with 32 per cent coming from the private sector and 68 per cent from the public sector. 

 

“The development of the EEC will be beneficial to Thailand’s economic growth in 2019, as the bidding processes for various projects have already been completed and capital is expected to flow into the region in 2019,” he said. 

 

Meanwhile, the research team has predicted that the Bank of Thailand is likely to hike the interest rate only once in the first half of 2019, by 0.25 percentage point – from 1.75 per cent to 2 per cent. 

 

This modest increase is not expected to have a drastic impact on consumer spending. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30362316

 
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-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-01-16
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3 hours ago, webfact said:

Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president of the Global Business Development and Strategy Group under Krungthai Bank, warns that political instability may have a harmful impact on the Thai economy.

wow, bright guy, even my dogs know that

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3 hours ago, webfact said:

However, with the date of the election still up in the air, there is a level of uncertainty, which may threaten the Kingdom’s growth prospects, he said.

Saying things like that might be considered a 'threat to national security' and make him a contender for attitude adjustment by those with a fragile ego.

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4 hours ago, webfact said:

with the date of the election still up in the air, there is a level of uncertainty, which may threaten the Kingdom’s growth prospects

As it is the junta that has yet confirmed the election date being in February 2019, it has in effect made ITSELF a threat to the Kingdom's growth prospects and by extension a threat to the State's security.

Where is the check & balance to what seems to have become a rogue military leadership that has lost sight of its most basic responsibility?

As there is no democratic institution in place, what other institution remains to provide direction to the State out of this morass?

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4 hours ago, webfact said:

 

Election a key factor’ in 2019 growth

 

But but Prayut don’t understand economics nor care less as long as he and his cronies have carteblanche on the nation’s treasury. 

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i would say everyone inside and outside of this land can now see clearly and i am going to have a good guess and say this land is already in recession. I am sure the english thai media will have a different story, property market booming buy buy buy, economy on the up invest invest invest.

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You can add to that the daily disaster regarding the quality of life in Bangkok. With the ever mounting evidence that the air in Bangkok is now at dangerous levels and with no improvement in sight the effects on the economy are already being felt. Tourism is down and that spells the start of a economic downturn which will push Thailand closer to a recession in 2019. Of course there is one bright spot in all this. That is the Baht will tumble against most currencies and for us ExPats that is good news

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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