Brexit bedlam - May's EU divorce deal crushed by 230 votes in parliament

[Bannoi]

72 pages and well over 1000 posts I must admit I haven't read all of them and don't have time to even if I wanted too.

 

Bookies don't always get it right if they did they would be even richer than they are now but they do calculate the odds on any particular outcome without letting their emotions get in the way.

 

At the moment this is what they consider to be the most likely outcome.

 

The odds of the UK holding a second referendum this year 7/4

Leaving with a no deal Brexit on 29 March is 3/1. With a deal 10/3 (leaving with a deal only very slightly ahead)

This means that the odds suggest there is a higher chance of a second referendum than leaving the EU with or without a deal.

 

The next general election will be held 2019 11/8, 2020 - 5/1, 2021 - 7/1, 2022 - 7/4

This means that the odds suggest there is a higher chance of a General election this year as against Parliament going to its full term in 2022.

 

If I general election was held the Conservatives are slight favourites to get more seats than labour 10/11 however Labour is favourite to form the next government in coalition with the SNP/Lib Dems. 

 

Next Prime Minister, at the moment Jeremy Corbyn is the favourite at 9/2 while Conservatives Michael Gove 6/1 and Boris Johnson is at 7/1.

 

So the odds (a snapshot at the moment as they are constantly changing) suggest the most likely option is a General election with Labour forming a coalition government and Jeremy Corbyn as PM that would suggest a delay was granted by the EU to Article 50 and so it starts all over again. (Perhaps followed by another referendum)

 

I have an idea cancel the whole Brexit disorganized shambles and get on with something more important as for me I'm going fishing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grouse]

The Interlude

 

 

[candide]

36 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Airbus have always been more than willing to rant about Brexit, even when they aren’t being prodded by the Government. Surely their enthusiasm for relentless remoaning at politically convenient moments can’t be anything to do with the astonishing sum of €64,172,543 Airbus have received from the EU in just the last five years. Almost €13 million of taxpayers money was funnelled their way last year alone. 

 

I am afraid you confuse loan with subsidies. By the way, any reliable source for these figures?

[candide]

44 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Airbus have always been more than willing to rant about Brexit, even when they aren’t being prodded by the Government. Surely their enthusiasm for relentless remoaning at politically convenient moments can’t be anything to do with the astonishing sum of €64,172,543 Airbus have received from the EU in just the last five years. Almost €13 million of taxpayers money was funnelled their way last year alone. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, candide said:

I am afraid you confuse loan with subsidies. By the way, any reliable source for these figures?

Additionally the €13 million you cite are indeed a tax credit from the French government. It has nothing to do with the EU. You should look for more reliable sources than blogs.

[vinny41]

9 minutes ago, candide said:

I am afraid you confuse loan with subsidies. By the way, any reliable source for these figures?

I am not confused as I stated Airbus have received €64,172,543 from the EU

as to source it was in the link 

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/fts/index_en.htm

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

I don't think we need another 5,000 Leopard II tanks every year just lurking about in the Fulda Gap singing the Horst Wessel song.

Singing tanks! Now that's what I call a deterrent. ????

[melvinmelvin]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Singing tanks! Now that's what I call a deterrent. ????

Have seen Kelly's heroes and Oddball

with his tank equipped with high power amplifiers/loudspeakers?

Playing Wagner.

According to Donald Sutherland, scares the shit out of Fritz.

 

[nauseus]

19 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

Have seen Kelly's heroes and Oddball

with his tank equipped with high power amplifiers/loudspeakers?

Playing Wagner.

According to Donald Sutherland, scares the shit out of Fritz.

 

Oh yes. I think I posted a clip up here a while back.

 

[dick dasterdly]

15 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 Still at 98,421 with 7 days to go. Might just scrape through to 100,000 by the deadline.

 

Of course, we all know that these petitions are really just a sop to the electorate; whatever they are about. I have not heard of a single one having any effect; whatever it was about.

Thank you for bringing this petition to my attention.

 

I rarely bother with petitions, but as it had been brought to my notice, I thought I'd try.

 

I received ONLY this response - after trying to register my vote (and being told that I would receive an email message to confirm my vote was genuine):-

 

Mr.David Kamau.

MINISTER OF FINANCE(MOF)

OPERATIONAL TOWERS;8/10

CARRIER CRESCENT,COTONOU.BENIN REPUBLIC.

DIRECT LINE:+229-98-77-63-27

EMAIL;[email protected]

 

Attn:Sir/Madam.

 

 

I am Mr.David Kamau, minister of finance (M.A.R),I monitor offices and control the affairs of all banks and financial institutions in Benin republic concerned foreign contract payments. I am the final signatory to all foreign transfers of huge funds moving within banks both the local and international levels in line to foreign contracts settlement. I have before me the list of foreign contract payment files, which are due to be transferred to their nominated accounts.

 

Meanwhile, we identified some of these accounts to be ghost accounts, unclaimed deposits and over invoiced sum etc. I wish to have a deal with you as regards to the unpaid fund. I have a file before me and hope the date's are correct and UN-tampered. As it is my duty to recommend the transfer of these surplus fund to the Federal Government Treasury and Reserve Accounts as unclaimed deposit. I have the opportunity to write you based on the instruction I received two days ago from the senate committee on contract payment/foreign debts to submit the list of payment reports expenditures and audited reports of revenues. Among several others, I have decided to remit the total sum of USD18.2 million following the idea that we have a deal/agreement and I am going to per fact the paperwork legally.

MY CONDITIONS

 

1.You will have to provide foreign account where the funds will be transferred.

2.This deal must be kept secret forever, and all correspondence will be strictly by private email /telephone for security purposes.

3.There should be no other third parties as most problems associated with such payments are caused by their agents or representatives. If you AGREE with my Conditions, contact me directly through this email address;([email protected]) will advise you on the next line of action and immediately the funds transfer will commence without further delay as I would proceed to fix your name on the payment schedule instantly within the next 5 working days.

 

NOTE:DUE TO THE HIGH RATES OF INTERNET SCAMMERS,IF YOU ARE REPLYING TO THIS EMAIL,DO WRITE "YOUR BROTHER" AT THE SUBJECT OF YOUR REPLY ,THAT SERVES AS OUR SECRET CODE FOR THIS TRANSACTION,BECAUSE I DO NOT WANT YOU TO FALL VICTIM OF ANY CIRCUMSTANCES

THANKS

YOURS FAITHFULLY

Mr.David Kamau."

 

......... What the hell is going on here???!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 beca

[dick dasterdly]

If others trying to register vote on the petition are receiving the same response, it's hardly suprising that many of those trying to sign the petition - give up!

[vogie]

The Lithuanian President says a no deal may well be better than delaying article 50.

 

[Grouse]

Betty Boothroyd hands down common sense 

 

 

[nauseus]

36 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

If others trying to register vote on the petition are receiving the same response, it's hardly suprising that many of those trying to sign the petition - give up!

A scam. But the link given by eva worked OK for me. 

[Grouse]

27 minutes ago, vogie said:

The Lithuanian President says a no deal may well be better than delaying article 50.

 

Yes, for Europe. She's saying she cant be bothered with the UK anymore. That pleases you?

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Betty Boothroyd hands down common sense 

 

 

Standard issue plea for a losers vote. Because they lost the first time.

[nauseus]

13 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Yes, for Europe. She's saying she cant be bothered with the UK anymore. That pleases you?

Well that is your take. 

 

Meanwhile back at the euronews ranch: Quote: "Grybauskaitė said that regardless of whether the UK created a new Brexit deal, there would be immediate negotiations concerning new treaties and trade agreements".

 

She loves the UK, bless her. 

[aright]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

Think about that

 

Germany has no nuclear deterrent and no blue water fleet

 

2% of 5 trillion USD is 100 Billion every year. How many German main battle tanks do you want?

Be fair. It's going to be very expensive to upgrade the Mausers and the Panzers they are currently using. 

[vogie]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

Yes, for Europe. She's saying she cant be bothered with the UK anymore. That pleases you?

That is the general consensus of many EU countries, the French had a poll about Britain being in the EU, the outcome was not in our favour. The opinion is that we are not allowing the EU to reach its full potential, don't be so selfish grouse, let them go, let them find a worry free life without us.

You must know we are holding them back, if you had any decency at all you would see this and stop thinking of yourself and realise we are nothing but leeches to our EU brethren. We have never fitted in with their values and beliefs, but we need freedom too, we must find our own way in life, we must make decisions for ourselves. When I left the security of my mother at 18, I realised what a wonderfull world I had just discovered, I was flying on my own for the first time. So let's all of us, remainers and brexiteers walk hand in hand together to find our new life together.

 

[nauseus]

4 minutes ago, vogie said:

That is the general consensus of many EU countries, the French had a poll about Britain being in the EU, the outcome was not in our favour. The opinion is that we are not allowing the EU to reach its full potential, don't be so selfish grouse, let them go, let them find a worry free life without us.

You must know we are holding them back, if you had any decency at all you would see this and stop thinking of yourself and realise we are nothing but leeches to our EU brethren. We have never fitted in with their values and beliefs, but we need freedom too, we must find our own way in life, we must make decisions for ourselves. When I left the security of my mother at 18, I realised what a wonderfull world I had just discovered, I was flying on my own for the first time. So let's all of us, remainers and brexiteers walk hand in hand together to find our new life together.

 

You need this I think, you big lug:

 

 

????

[7by7]

15 hours ago, nontabury said:

On the 22nd January 2019, Merkel in the German city of Aachen, signed A freindship agreement with Macron of France. The German Chancellor said it was A step in the future creation of a joint European Army.

What she and Macron signed and say does not mean a EU army will happen.

 

Like the 1952 Treaty establishing the European Defence Community (the Pleven plan) signed in 1952 which collapsed when France declined to ratify it; this plan by Merkel and Macron will need the agreement of and ratification by all member sates in order to come to anything. 

[tebee]

On 1/24/2019 at 7:39 AM, melvinmelvin said:

 

through

ta Grouse, this is very good stuff, you may have a Belhaven and a Monkey Shoulder, it's on me

 

would you know if the manuscript is available?

I'd love to have that and read it in peace and quiet

 

particularly liked his bits on services trade, WTO trading and the Backstop

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/sir_ivan_rogers_lecture_ucl_22012019.pdf

[7by7]

10 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

22 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

 As i have already said, more than once, 

 

 

I ask you two the same question.

 

Where are these discussions about a EU army taking place, and amongst whom?

 

 

I guess you are a quite a newbie so I will explain.????

We have had two very long Brexit threads over the last few years and this subject was discussed comprehensively. Sadly the two threads got removed and I can't say why, as I will probably be sent to the naughty corner. Hope that helps.

 I don't mean discussed on this board; and fail to see how you could think I did!

 

My question was in response to two posts from two different members; @Nontaburi claiming  he could provide many examples of the EU's intention to create a EU army, and one from yourself agreeing with him; as was clear by the quotes from you both in my post which you have quoted.

 

I'll rephrase the question in the hope that even you can understand what I mean

 

Nontaburi produced one example, not the many he claimed existed; the Merkel/Macron agreement, which as already said means nothing without the agreement of the other member states. So where are discussions about obtaining such agreement taking place and amongst whom?

 

 

 

 

 

[7by7]

8 hours ago, Loiner said:

You certainly don’t like that do you? Not that it matters much and I don’t care. I don’t have to quote sources to you and I don’t even have to taken anything from a ‘source’. I can research and think for myself.

If you are going to produce scare stories about what will happen if we don't leave the EU, especially ones which are 10 years old, then for any credibility at all you should show the source of those stories.

 

You say that you can research and think for yourself. If you researched, then you must have a source! But maybe by 'think for myself' you are admitting you made it up?

8 hours ago, Loiner said:

Except for the fact that the UK voted to Leave the EU and Remain lost there are no other ‘facts’ or truth. You pick and quote hyperbole that supports your agenda. Coming from some economist or like minded politician counts for nought. They’re all predictions in uncharted waters like Mystic Meg’s.

Then why do you have to make 'facts' up to suit your agenda?

 

I quote sources which support my opinion; true. You should try it some time rather than making things up; you'll be more credible that way.

 

8 hours ago, Loiner said:

Why not go see those guys in orange down the wat? They are always good for a lottery forecast and will probably give you a suitable Brexit economic scare prophecy if you ask.

One reason being that, unlike you it seems, I live in the UK and therefore will feel the effects of Brexit far more than those ex pats in Thailand.

 

Until and unless the pound drops so low post Brexit that your pension is no longer enough to meet the income requirements for your visa renewal and so you have to come back to the mess of a post Brexit UK!

 

Doom and gloom? Maybe; but more realistic than the cloud cuckoo land, everything will work out for the best nonsense pushed by so many Brexiteers; including Vote.Leave during the actual campaign!

[evadgib]

9 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I don't mean discussed on this board; and fail to see how you could think I did!

 

My question was in response to two posts from two different members; @Nontaburi claiming  he could provide many examples of the EU's intention to create a EU army, and one from yourself agreeing with him; as was clear by the quotes from you both in my post which you have quoted.

 

I'll rephrase the question in the hope that even you can understand what I mean

 

Nontaburi produced one example, not the many he claimed existed; the Merkel/Macron agreement, which as already said means nothing without the agreement of the other member states. So where are discussions about obtaining such agreement taking place and amongst whom?

Verhofstadt was going all Mussolini about it a few days ago but I can't be bothered looking for the clip. 

[nontabury]

8 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I don't mean discussed on this board; and fail to see how you could think I did!

 

My question was in response to two posts from two different members; @Nontaburi claiming  he could provide many examples of the EU's intention to create a EU army, and one from yourself agreeing with him; as was clear by the quotes from you both in my post which you have quoted.

 

I'll rephrase the question in the hope that even you can understand what I mean

 

Nontaburi produced one example, not the many he claimed existed; the Merkel/Macron agreement, which as already said means nothing without the agreement of the other member states. So where are discussions about obtaining such agreement taking place and amongst whom?

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Yes,I could supply you with many examples. However with your closed mind, I would be wasting my time.

 And if you think a signed agreement between Merkel/Macron does not carry any wait, again you are living in denial. Similarly if you think no meaningful discussion on this subject are not already taking place.

 That’s how the unelected Bureaucrats in Brussels carry on their deceit of the citizens of Europe.

 

 

[Grouse]

Update from the FT

 

http://email.permalink.ft.com/emails/eyJlbWFpbCI6ImZmZDUwMDRmMWE4YmFiN2QwMjY2MjUwOWRhNzJkZDdkZTQxMGIwMmU5MDVjZjEiLCJ0cmFuc2FjdGlvbklkIjoiMGQ3MDU4ZmQtZGU1MS00ZTEzLWI3YzYtYTJiY2M1OWY0MmI4In0%3D

 

A Brexit broadside from Airbus By James Blitz  January 24, 2019  Leading business figures have warned for some time about the risk that a no-deal Brexit poses to their companies. Few have issued a broadside quite as stark as the one today from Tom Enders, the German chief executive of Airbus. Airbus is one of Britain’s largest manufacturers. Its factories in Britain make the wings for its aircraft, a prized role in the group’s operations. It employs more than 14,000 people at 25 sites across the country. It provides work for 110,000 people across the UK via its supply chain. Yet Mr Enders today warns that the future of the company in the UK would be at stake if Britain crashes out of the EU. In a video message, he says it is a “disgrace” that, with just 64 days left to March 29, businesses still cannot plan for Brexit. He warns Britons not to listen to “the Brexiteers’ madness”, which he says asserts that, because Airbus has huge plants in the UK, it won’t move out. “They are wrong,” he adds. Airbus, Mr Enders says, might not be able to pick up and move its large UK factories to other parts of the world immediately. But it could be “forced to redirect future investments in the event of a no-deal Brexit”. And he adds: “Make no mistake, there are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft.” The warning from Mr Enders caps a week in which we have seen more clearly than ever the damage that Brexit — and in particular fears of no deal — are doing to UK-based business. Sony has said it will move its European HQ from London to Amsterdam, citing Brexit upheaval. P&O announced that its entire fleet of cross-Channel ferries will be re-registered under the Cypriot flag to keep EU tax benefits. Dixons Carphone said it was stockpiling supplies because it feared chaos at the ports in the event of no deal. Bentley, the luxury carmaker, is also stockpiling parts, describing Brexit as a “killer” that threatens the firm’s profitability. The timing of all these interventions — above all the one from Airbus —  is important. The Commons is set to vote next Tuesday on a proposal by Labour MP Yvette Cooper that Britain should seek an extension to Article 50 if Theresa May cannot get her Brexit deal through the Commons. The warning from Mr Enders about the dangers of “no deal” therefore helps Ms Cooper and her colleagues ahead of what could be a tight vote — and in a division on accompanying legislation that Ms Cooper plans for February 5. The passage of the Cooper amendment would not solve the Brexit conundrum. Even if Article 50 were extended, the question of what route the UK takes — Norway Plus, a second referendum or something else — would still be unresolved. But as the clock runs down to March 29, business leaders are right to warn MPs of what is at stake if they fail to forge an agreement. British CEOs, in particular, some of whom are far too wary of speaking out over the dangers of Brexit, could learn something from the candour of Mr Enders.

 

[7by7]

6 hours ago, evadgib said:

105k this morning & will be in the 120s by the time you log in.

 

Nope; 106,771.

 

Ok, I'll concede that it's reached 100,000 but it's slowed down a lot since then. another 13,000+ in the 6 days it has left? Possible, but doubtful.

 

Meanwhile, after running for just 9 days, Hold a second referendum on EU membership.  has reached over 35,000 signatures.

 

Of course, as I said earlier here and also in another topic, these petitions change very little; if anything. But at least the government has to respond if it gets 10,000 signatures and the House has to debate it if it gets to 100,000.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, vogie said:

That is the general consensus of many EU countries, the French had a poll about Britain being in the EU, the outcome was not in our favour. The opinion is that we are not allowing the EU to reach its full potential, don't be so selfish grouse, let them go, let them find a worry free life without us.

You must know we are holding them back, if you had any decency at all you would see this and stop thinking of yourself and realise we are nothing but leeches to our EU brethren. We have never fitted in with their values and beliefs, but we need freedom too, we must find our own way in life, we must make decisions for ourselves. When I left the security of my mother at 18, I realised what a wonderfull world I had just discovered, I was flying on my own for the first time. So let's all of us, remainers and brexiteers walk hand in hand together to find our new life together.

 

Maybe you should never have left!

 

I do think that the best interests of the EU are served by forgetting about this sceptres Isle of morons. But, we are quite likely to turn our country into a land of peasant works run as slaves for Victorian industrialists.

[vogie]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

Maybe you should never have left!

 

I do think that the best interests of the EU are served by forgetting about this sceptres Isle of morons. But, we are quite likely to turn our country into a land of peasant works run as slaves for Victorian industrialists.

What I do think if you are going to be transfering your allegiance to another country, you may well want to tone your insults down or else you may find your new citizenship revoked.

[melvinmelvin]

32 minutes ago, tebee said:

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/sir_ivan_rogers_lecture_ucl_22012019.pdf

 

wow, @tebee, thanks an awful lot

 

saves me pushing @Grouse, even for a Yorkshireman he has a decent command of English,

and could easily have reeled off an email to UCL requesting the lecture, if available.

 

AT ANY RATE

 

I encourage both leavers and remainers to take a look at this PDF,

it is a fairly systematic and thorough walk through most of the pertinent Brexit aspects.

it offers perspective