‘Overshooting’ baht raises fears of sluggish growth

[boonrawdcnx]

This is all nonsense - reason for a currency to rise is demand and a sound and solid - as much as this is possible in these days - economy.
The US and Europe used to be safe havens during economic downturns - not so anymore. Now the money is flowing to Asia, and for a good reason.
The US and some European countries are so heavily in depth - -thanks to the gangsters on Wall Street - that they currently cannot raise interest rates because they are not even able to be the interest of the depth they have amassed anymore if interest should rise.
To bail out banksters and the crooks on Wall Street US and EU printed debt (money) QE in the region of 30-60 billion a month - to be payed by the tax payers- should actually have the US dollar and Euro down even further. Only the manipulated US stock market has kept them from collapsing. Companies are Buying back shares in the hundreds of billions to artificially inflate share prices - Only what most people don’t know - on borrowed money - thinking they can manipulate share prices up for ever with cheap money - until the bubble bursts again. But next time there is no money in the world that can bail them out.

The US has amassed 22 trillion in debt approx. 107 % of GDP and a trillion $ budget deficit 5% of GDP - Thailand has 1% budget deficit and debt of roughly 46 % of GDP !

Thailand also the 12th highest amount of foreign currency reserves ahead of the UK and Germany.

Now where would you park your money ?

In bankrupt US / Europe or in Thailand ?
I think the answer is easy and that’s the reason why the Baht is so strong.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[JeezeLooeze]

There' s always two sides to this equation and only one side is put forward in this article. For those who get paid in Baht its strength cheapens your overseas spending and the cost of imports. I suspect the BOT is maintaining higher interest rates so it has the option to lower them when the coming recession hits the globe in an attempt to stimulate growth. Recent attempts by the FED to do this have failed as it is caught between a rock and a hard place: a rate hike will increase the US debt burden to unsustainable levels whereas too low gives it no leeway to reduce even further (negative interest rates anybody?) to stimulate growth during the upcoming recession. My take - exchange your crappy paper fiat for some Thai gold while the Baht is still strong and gold is still dirt cheap!

[Time Traveller]

5% higher, 5% lower. Who cares? If your make or break depends upon small movements in exchange rates, then it's not exchange rates that are your problem

[Bundooman]

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

Another figure to bandy about is the one concerning ex-pats living here on a fixed pension.  I used to get 350,000 for every 5000 UKP I brought here.  I spent it all in Thailand. 

Now I get 200,000.  I am much more careful & don't splash the cash anywhere near as much as I did.

Me too!

[jabis]

8 minutes ago, boonrawdcnx said:

This is all nonsense - reason for a currency to rise is demand and a sound and solid - as much as this is possible in these days - economy.
The US and Europe used to be safe havens during economic downturns - not so anymore. Now the money is flowing to Asia, and for a good reason.
The US and some European countries are so heavily in depth - -thanks to the gangsters on Wall Street - that they currently cannot raise interest rates because they are not even able to be the interest of the depth they have amassed anymore if interest should rise.
To bail out banksters and the crooks on Wall Street US and EU printed debt (money) QE in the region of 30-60 billion a month - to be payed by the tax payers- should actually have the US dollar and Euro down even further. Only the manipulated US stock market has kept them from collapsing. Companies are Buying back shares in the hundreds of billions to artificially inflate share prices - Only what most people don’t know - on borrowed money - thinking they can manipulate share prices up for ever with cheap money - until the bubble bursts again. But next time there is no money in the world that can bail them out.

The US has amassed 22 trillion in debt approx. 107 % of GDP and a trillion $ budget deficit 5% of GDP - Thailand has 1% budget deficit and debt of roughly 46 % of GDP !

Thailand also the 12th highest amount of foreign currency reserves ahead of the UK and Germany.

Now where would you park your money ?

In bankrupt US / Europe or in Thailand ?
I think the answer is easy and that’s the reason why the Baht is so strong.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Historical data begs to differ with you on euro depreciation, otherwise valid points.


EDIT: Sorry was meant to this year on year one;

Edited February 4, 2019 by jabis

[fullcave]

3 hours ago, oldhippy said:

For a Thai the exchange rate does not matter. The exchange rate only matters to tourists, and tourism is a very small part of GDP.

Doesn't matter? Ha! Let me give you a clue. It will also effect exports. 

[carstenp]

2 minutes ago, Bundooman said:

Me too!

 

3 minutes ago, Bundooman said:

Another figure to bandy about is the one concerning ex-pats living here on a fixed pension.  I used to get 350,000 for every 5000 UKP I brought here.  I spent it all in Thailand. 

Now I get 200,000.  I am much more careful & don't splash the cash anywhere near as much as I did.

I do have the same problem. I dont use any big amount of money here anymore. Theres no value for money anymore ???? Used to get 116000 every month from my pension, but now I only gets 96000. 

[jabis]

5 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

5% higher, 5% lower. Who cares? If your make or break depends upon small movements in exchange rates, then it's not exchange rates that are your problem

When there is no factual reason for a huge appreciation of a currency next to any other in the region, it's deemed overvalued, as is the case with THB. But it's called Teflon Thailand anyways ^^

[dlclark97]

Am happy to see this important subject brought to the public's attention.  I am a retired American with a decent retirement income and am not concerned about 'income letters' etc. to enable my annual extension.  I am however concerned about the USD/THB exchange rate.  I know the rates fluctuate but...……..  Just a couple days ago I figured what THB I received for my retirement income at a time late in 2016, and what I receive at current rates.  Bottom line is that I have almost 500,000 THB less per year to spend in the local Thai economy than I had late in 2016.  With the number of expats living in Thailand plus the number of tourists who still come here but having less disposable income due to poor exchange rates, the money they are able to spend here is limited.     

[sawadee1947]

2 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

As a professor, I imagine you would have learned about logical fallacies. Yet, you have attempted to use several logical fallacies on me. I'm sorry if the below embarrasses you as it was not my intention. 

 

 

1. When you responded to me with, paraphrasing, "try 1% at most!", you were appealing to incredulity, offering no support of your argument.

 

Divine fallacy (argument from incredulity) – arguing that, because something is so incredible or amazing, it must be the result of superior, divine, alien or paranormal agency.^[21]

 

 

2. When you started attacking my interpretation of the meanings of GDP and tourism, you are arguing from another fallacy. However I use the term, as long as I am using it consistently, it has no impact on my argument (percentages). 

 

Argument from fallacy (also known as the fallacy fallacy) – assumption that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.^[7]

 

3. When challenged with my argument that Thai tourism might account for around 30% or higher, you again appealed to a logical fallacy, this time stating you were a professor and thus your argument is to be taken over mine, despite, yet again, offering no material support of your argument.

 

Appeal to authority (argument from authority, argumentum ad verecundiam) – an assertion is deemed true because of the position or authority of the person asserting it.^[70][71]

• Appeal to accomplishment – an assertion is deemed true or false based on the accomplishments of the proposer.^[72] This may often also have elements of appeal to emotion (see below).

Where you bought your "Professor" title? Can I have it too?

[cornishcarlos]

26 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

I fully agree with you.

I do not know whether the contribution of tourism to GDP is 0,5% or 1% or 1,5%.

However, I do know that is not 10 or 30%.

 

 

If this is the case, 1% lets say, then what accounts for the other 99% of GDP ?

[oldhippy]

18 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

Neither have you offered anything to support your argument. By the way, this is not a trial, and I am not required to answer any of your questions nor defend my argument against your attacks.

 

But, it would be courteous for you to provide some idea of why you think tourism accounts for at most 1% of Thai GDP. 

If tourism would account for 7 or 10 or 30 % of GDP, that would mean - ceteris paribus - that 7 or 10 or 30 % of the Thai labour force is employed in the tourist industry.

That would not leave much for agriculture, manufacturing, services and government.

[sammieuk1]

All I know is that near 30% of my spending power has disappeared in the last two and half years for some obscure self interested reason????

[Time Traveller]

1 hour ago, Bundooman said:

We bow to your abundance of knowledge and teachings, oh Lord of Economics and lecturing and superiority. Please humbly forgive us errant posters who do not meet your sophisticated and wise ramblings. Thank you your Grace - truly we doooooooooooooo!

In defense of oldhippy, those Wikipedia stats were completely moronic.

Like if you calculate from the "prostitution in thailand" data. It implies  Thai GDP in 2003 was $143 billion, and then that GDP in 2015 just $64 billion (about 1/8th of what it actually is)

I have no idea who or what Havocscope is, but their figures are completely made up. Only a fool would reference them as being factual.

[oldhippy]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

If this is the case, 1% lets say, then what accounts for the other 99% of GDP ?

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

[Eric Loh]

15 minutes ago, fullcave said:

Doesn't matter? Ha! Let me give you a clue. It will also effect exports. 

And imports in a positive way.

[NCC1701A]

Ring ring:

 

"Hello, big boss of Thai banks."

"Yes I am super big boss of Thailand and I am buying a house in the South of France. Need strong baht."

"But that might cause of recession!"

"I don't care. No smog in Monaco."

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, oldhippy said:

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

 

Well I know that's the main industries but whats "your" breakdown of their relative % of GDP...

[crees]

26 minutes ago, JeezeLooeze said:

There' s always two sides to this equation and only one side is put forward in this article. For those who get paid in Baht its strength cheapens your overseas spending and the cost of imports. I suspect the BOT is maintaining higher interest rates so it has the option to lower them when the coming recession hits the globe in an attempt to stimulate growth. Recent attempts by the FED to do this have failed as it is caught between a rock and a hard place: a rate hike will increase the US debt burden to unsustainable levels whereas too low gives it no leeway to reduce even further (negative interest rates anybody?) to stimulate growth during the upcoming recession. My take - exchange your crappy paper fiat for some Thai gold while the Baht is still strong and gold is still dirt cheap!

I agree, time to make lemonade 

[Time Traveller]

3 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

If tourism would account for 7 or 10 or 30 % of GDP, that would mean - ceteris paribus - that 7 or 10 or 30 % of the Thai labour force is employed in the tourist industry.

That would not leave much for agriculture, manufacturing, services and government.

Wrong conclusion. Not all workers in each industry get paid the same. So the proportion of revenue generated by one sector, does not imply that the total number of those workers in that industry make up the same proportion of the Thai labor force.

[jabis]

8 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

Tourism falls in the `Transport` category in trading economics, so here's a little something:

[Fex Bluse]

30 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

If tourism would account for 7 or 10 or 30 % of GDP, that would mean - ceteris paribus - that 7 or 10 or 30 % of the Thai labour force is employed in the tourist industry.

That would not leave much for agriculture, manufacturing, services and government.

That's the 1st support you've offered to me to counter my argument, and, I must say, ipso facto, it is indeed weak. 

 

You're saying something like, having been pulled over for drink driving and tested above the legal limit for intoxication,

"well, officer, I cannot be drunk because it would illegal to be drunk and I never

break the law."

 

Edited February 4, 2019 by Fex Bluse

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

As a professor, I imagine you would have learned about logical fallacies. Yet, you have attempted to use several logical fallacies on me. I'm sorry if the below embarrasses you as it was not my intention. 

 

 

1. When you responded to me with, paraphrasing, "try 1% at most!", you were appealing to incredulity, offering no support of your argument.

 

Divine fallacy (argument from incredulity) – arguing that, because something is so incredible or amazing, it must be the result of superior, divine, alien or paranormal agency.^[21]

 

 

2. When you started attacking my interpretation of the meanings of GDP and tourism, you are arguing from another fallacy. However I use the term, as long as I am using it consistently, it has no impact on my argument (percentages). 

 

Argument from fallacy (also known as the fallacy fallacy) – assumption that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.^[7]

 

3. When challenged with my argument that Thai tourism might account for around 30% or higher, you again appealed to a logical fallacy, this time stating you were a professor and thus your argument is to be taken over mine, despite, yet again, offering no material support of your argument.

 

Appeal to authority (argument from authority, argumentum ad verecundiam) – an assertion is deemed true because of the position or authority of the person asserting it.^[70][71]

• Appeal to accomplishment – an assertion is deemed true or false based on the accomplishments of the proposer.^[72] This may often also have elements of appeal to emotion (see below).

Economists, who are to be found everywhere in the halls of financial institutions, especially central banks, are one of the main reasons why most economies are in such a mess... because ignorant politicians follow the advices of pompous economists! 

 

Economists are like these doctors from previous centuries, with their long pointy hats, surrounding the patient, and pretending to know what to do. 

 

Avoid at all cost! 

[HHTel]

4 hours ago, oldhippy said:

For a Thai the exchange rate does not matter. The exchange rate only matters to tourists, and tourism is a very small part of GDP.

Tell that to the exporters who are relied on quite heavily regarding the Thai economy!!

[Stargeezr]

I doubt that the tourism figures include the thousands of foreign expats that live and contribute to the economy. Same as the traffic death stats that are low balled to save face. Its the Asian way you know!

Geezer

[Scottie12]

Old hippy says the exchange rate does not matter to Thais but of course it does. Everybody in this country has to buy goods which are imported or has parts which are imported and this is obviously affected by the strength  of the baht. There is a growing middle class which like the finer things in life e.g. wines,steaks etc and to say Thais are not affected is nonsense.

[oldhippy]

12 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

Wrong conclusion. Not all workers in each industry get paid the same. So the proportion of revenue generated by one sector, does not imply that the total number of those workers in that industry make up the same proportion of the Thai labor force.

So you suggest that workers in the tourist industry earn significantly more than than other workers?

[oldhippy]

2 minutes ago, Scottie12 said:

Old hippy says the exchange rate does not matter to Thais but of course it does. Everybody in this country has to buy goods which are imported or has parts which are imported and this is obviously affected by the strength  of the baht. There is a growing middle class which like the finer things in life e.g. wines,steaks etc and to say Thais are not affected is nonsense.

We were talking about the tourist industry in Thailand.

[oldhippy]

6 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Tell that to the exporters who are relied on quite heavily regarding the Thai economy!!

We were talking about the tourist industry in Thailand #2.

[kane666]

4 hours ago, oldhippy said:

For a Thai the exchange rate does not matter. The exchange rate only matters to tourists, and tourism is a very small part of GDP.

Please don't feed the troll. If this is an (academic) economists take on exchange rates then clearly he is just a troll.