Thailand's oldest party may be king-maker after vote to determine military role

[webfact]

Thailand's oldest party may be king-maker after vote to determine military role

By Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat

 

FILE PHOTO: Democrat Party leader and former Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva talks to people during his campaign rally in Bangkok, ThailandJanuary 29, 2019. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's oldest political party is heading into an election on Sunday with leader Abhisit Vejjajiva facing tough choices in the first polls since the military seized power in a 2014 coup.

 

Will Abhisit's pro-business, pro-establishment Democrat Party join with a new pro-military party in a coalition after the vote, likely extending the army's dominance of power?

 

Or will the Democrats band together with a "pro-democracy front" to keep the army out of government - but at the price of working with its bitter foe for 15 years: parties loyal to ousted populist prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

 

Or is there a third option, as Abhisit argues? One scenario could return Oxford-educated Abhisit to the prime minister's office, which he held from 2008 to 2011 after a court dissolved a pro-Thaksin government.

 

"We will be the alternative in leading Thailand out of the last decade of troubles," Abhisit, 54, told Reuters in an interview.

 

Prominent Democrats have been at the centre of Thailand's turbulent politics since 2005, with some party members leading anti-Thaksin "Yellow Shirt" protests against corruption that led to two military coups in a decade.

 

Sunday's election has been billed by the military government as returning Southeast Asia's second-largest economy to civilian, democratic rule. But critics say a new constitution, overseen by the generals, enshrines military influence over politics.

 

Doubts the army will truly give up power were heightened last month when a new pro-military party nominated junta chief and prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 2014 coup, as its prime ministerial candidate.

 

Abhisit this month said in a campaign video he would not support Prayuth's staying on as prime minister, which he said would "breed conflict and is against the Democrat party's principle that the people have the power".

 

At the same time, Abhisit made clear he would be loath to work with the main pro-Thaksin party, Pheu Thai. The Democrats have long decried the Thaksin movement as corrupt and a threat to independent democratic institutions.

 

"I don't want dictatorship and I don't want corrupt people,” Abhisit said. "Corrupt politicians provided the pretexts for the military to stage all the coups in the last 20 years."

 

COMPROMISE PM?

Thaksin lives in self-exile to avoid a 2008 graft conviction he said was politically motivated but he retains widespread support, especially in the north and northeast.

 

The Democrats have traditionally drawn support from the Bangkok middle class and the south.

 

Abhisit's hopes for a third way could come to nothing in an election increasingly defined by the face-off between pro-military parties, which have Prayuth as their candidate for prime minister and electoral rules that give them an advantage, and an anti-military bloc with Thaksin's loyalists at its core.

 

While Abhisit has rejected Prayuth as prime minister, he has not ruled out a coalition with Palang Pracharat, the party that has nominated the junta leader.

 

Such a deal might see a "compromise" premier, perhaps Abhisit himself or another outside candidate.

 

The target for political parties is 376 seats in parliament - 50 percent plus one of the combined 250-seat upper house Senate and the 500-seat lower House of Representatives.

 

But with the junta appointing all 250 members of the Senate, no single party is likely to secure the 376 magic number on its own.

 

Given that the pro-military Palang Pracharat can count on the support of the Senate, it needs to win only 126 lower house seats to form a government.

By contrast, the parties opposed to a military role in government must win 376 seats in the lower house, three-quarters of the seats, to block the military from retaining control.

 

Still, most polls indicate Palang Pracharat won't win enough seats on its own meaning it would need coalition partners, with the Democrats a likely choice.

 

'NOT BLACK AND WHITE'

The Democrats have come second to pro-Thaksin parties in every election since 2001, including the last one in 2011, when they got 35 percent of the vote to Pheu Thai's 48 percent.

 

Opinion polls tend to show the Democrats coming second or third. The party will be competing for the anti-Thaksin vote with other parties, including Palang Pracharat.

 

The Democrat Party was founded in 1947 as a conservative, royalist movement, and has portrayed itself as a champion of civilian rule in a country that has seen 13 successful coups, even if at times it worked with military governments.

 

In 1992, the Democrats sided with anti-army demonstrators in an uprising that led to a bloody crackdown. The party won an election later that year but it was blamed for mishandling the wrenching fall-out of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which paved the way for the rise of telecoms tycoon Thaksin.

 

Amid polarisation in the 2000s, the Democrats benefited from the military's opposition to Thaksin, and at times called for military intervention to oust pro-Thaksin governments.

 

Abhisit has rejected efforts by Thaksin's loyalists to portray the election as a two-way fight between democracy and military-dominated rule.

"This election is not black and white, the country has more choices," he told Reuters.

 

Anti-junta parties, however, argue there is no neutrality or third way in the election.

 

"Abhisit says he will not join with Pheu Thai, but does that mean he will join with Palang Pracharat?" asked Sudarat Keyuraphan, Pheu Thai's top prime ministerial candidate.

 

"There are only two sides," she said. "So he must choose."

 

(Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-03-19

[Thailand]

Mark will bottle and side with the military of course.

[PatOngo]

51 minutes ago, webfact said:

"I don't want dictatorship and I don't want corrupt people,”

So, you are looking for miracles?.....Even divine intervention won't deliver on that!

[Eric Loh]

Once again he is up there for the highest bidder. Sorry wrong thread. I was referring to Nong at Soi Cowboy. 

[Reigntax]

6 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Once again he is up there for the highest bidder. Sorry wrong thread. I was referring to Nong at Soi Cowboy. 

 

I understand how you got the 2 mixed up because no matter what the result, it would appear both end up with people being rooted

[CLW]

"Opinion polls tend to show the Democrats coming second or third. The party will be competing for the anti-Thaksin vote with other parties, including Palang Pracharat."

More likely 4th or 5th. Expect a landslide win for the PT and Future Forward. If PPPR and uncle still hang on to their powers, there will be protests and much worse things...
BTW, am I right to assume that the police more likely supports PT while the military favors the current government? ?

[champers]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

Mark will bottle and side with the military of course.

The not democratic Democrat way. ????

[champers]

20 minutes ago, CLW said:

"Opinion polls tend to show the Democrats coming second or third. The party will be competing for the anti-Thaksin vote with other parties, including Palang Pracharat."

More likely 4th or 5th. Expect a landslide win for the PT and Future Forward. If PPPR and uncle still hang on to their powers, there will be protests and much worse things...
BTW, am I right to assume that the police more likely supports PT while the military favors the current government? ?

The military is the current government.

[CLW]

The military is the current government.

I meant to write PPRP.

[champers]

2 minutes ago, CLW said:

4 minutes ago, champers said:

The military is the current government.

I meant to write PPRP.

The PPRP is pro the current lot. They are stuffed full of generals.

[Odysseus123]

"King-maker"?

 

Kinda odd choice of a word (or two) for Thailand..

 

 

[DNPBC0]

I hope that all Thais will remember that, as Prime Minister, Abhisit silently presided over the murder of more than 90 unarmed protestors by military gunfire in 2010.

 

[ChrisY1]

"Will Abhisit's pro-business, pro-establishment Democrat Party join with a new pro-military party in a coalition after the vote"

Does a bear crap in the woods?...Of course he will given the chance....kowtow to the highest bidder!

[nong38]

If Mark throws in his lot with the military then democracy in Thailand will be dead, it will be a sham and all those who think they have been robbed of what they thought was democracy will take to the streets IMO he needs to think very carefully about what direction he takes himself and the country in and he certainly should not rue out any coalition even with traditional rivals if they can make compromises and keep the current outfit out of power if that what is required.

[Sticky Wicket]

A sensational failure of a man who has never won anything in his life.

He even had to pay people to join his coalition when he was appointed 'PM'.

Another of the elite with unusual wealth

[Kieran00001]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

"I don't want dictatorship and I don't want corrupt people,” Abhisit said. "Corrupt politicians provided the pretexts for the military to stage all the coups in the last 20 years."

 

Well, he should know, several of his own cabinet were forced to resign over corruption scandals.

[yellowboat]

Vietnam and Malaysia will benefit from the continued stupidity of the Thai elites.  The beffoonery is really hard to take over the last 5 years.  He should do the right thing and work to get rid of general cha cha and the watch collector. 

[CLW]

Vietnam and Malaysia will benefit from the continued stupidity of the Thai elites.  The beffoonery is really hard to take over the last 5 years.  He should do the right thing and work to get rid of general cha cha and the watch collector. 

In my opinion Thananthorn is the only one with economic knowledge that sees the upcoming urgent problems with neighbouring countries prospering and becoming a serious competitor for Thailand.
The other parties and candidates are indoctrinated by this Thailand only and Thailand first mindset it's beyond belief.
Something like Trump's America first, but at least they have a solid economic backbone with domestic companies and industry.

[newatthis]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

"I don't want dictatorship and I don't want corrupt people,” Abhisit said. "Corrupt politicians provided the pretexts for the military to stage all the coups in the last 20 years."

Yeah, it was your "upstanding, honest" mate, Suthep, who ushered in the last one.

[Baerboxer]

20 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Once again he is up there for the highest bidder. Sorry wrong thread. I was referring to Nong at Soi Cowboy. 

 

That's one thing about PTP - they all no who their boss his; no selling out. Oh, wait a minute, didn't ................

 

Honesty and ethics in politicians - surely you don't expect that Eric?

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Vietnam and Malaysia will benefit from the continued stupidity of the Thai elites.  The beffoonery is really hard to take over the last 5 years.  He should do the right thing and work to get rid of general cha cha and the watch collector. 

 

Unfortunately though, the elite hisos never really feel the impact because of the monopolistic nature of how they've carved everything up. Scannia recently announced plans to build a massive factory here. The wealth they have is staggering to most people and the % of the countries wealth they own is growing.

 

They are still lining their pockets massively and have no thought that will ever change.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

That's one thing about PTP - they all no who their boss his; no selling out. Oh, wait a minute, didn't ................

 

Honesty and ethics in politicians - surely you don't expect that Eric?

Don’t expect honesty and ethics in local politicians but this fight is different. It’s democracy versus pro military authoritarianism. Alas Abhisit has selfish political ambition. What he can’t win in a legit election, he will take the unethical shortcut. 

[Odysseus123]

12 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Don’t expect honesty and ethics in local politicians but this fight is different. It’s democracy versus pro military authoritarianism. Alas Abhisit has selfish political ambition. What he can’t win in a legit election, he will take the unethical shortcut. 

Abhisit is a tadpole.

 

He flunked it years ago.

[ratcatcher]

1 hour ago, Odysseus123 said:

Abhisit is a tadpole.

 

He flunked it years ago.

Tadpoles turn into frogs and Uncle T loves frogs.

[Odysseus123]

8 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

Tadpoles turn into frogs and Uncle T loves frogs.

Quite..

 

 

[gunderhill]

23 hours ago, CLW said:

am I right to assume that the police more likely supports PT while the military favors the current government? ?

Depends  which one pays the best.

[RickBradford]

23 hours ago, CLW said:

TW, am I right to assume that the police more likely supports PT while the military favors the current government? ?

I am looking at the manifesto of the Prachaniyom party, whose head is Police General Yongyut Tepjamnong, with their slogan "The people must come first."

 

Among their policies are:

 

* No military big-equipment spending for 10 years; money to be used instead to buy tractors, ploughs, and combine harvesters.

* Replace all non air-conditioned buses (10,000 vehicles)

* Minimum wage up 20%

* Special low-interest loans for police and teachers

 

... and ...

 

* resurrect Yingluck's rice pledging scheme, guaranteeing 20,000 baht per ton for Malee rice

* guarantee price of 80 baht per kg for latex (actual price is around 35 baht).

 

Sounds pretty much out of the Thaksin playbook.

 

Some Thais I have spoken to, see the future role of the Army as the key element in this election -- the Thaksin side want its wings clipped, and if they can achieve that, some of them would then feel free to dismantle the monarchy, a long-standing aim made easier after the passing of the former king.

 

 

[emptypockets]

Telecoms tycoon Taksin??

Really..... Maybe eventually after the dodgy deals. 

[emptypockets]

Only tossers call Abihisit Mark.  The politics of envy by busted arse expats.  Wake up, the rich rule the world the world over. It's called the Golden Rule, He who has the gold,  rules.  Always has been. Always will. Regardless of what the sociocommunist members here insist. 

Look at history... Mary Jo Kopechne and the Kennedy's.

Henry the Eighth. Any many many others.  The rebellion of the peasants in China and Cambodia worked out well for them didn't it? 

 

[nong38]

15 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

He's a puppet.

 

He will do whatever he has been instructed to do. 

I did think in earlier times that his hands seemed to be tied but who is the power behind the throne and what are their goals?