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Central Bank Further Eases Capital Controls


george

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No personal criticism, but I think over staring on the numbers you might miss the political and social influences if it comes to a doomsday ....

I hope not.

I'm pretty sure that all along the discussion in this thread has been about the economy. If you wanna talk about political and social aspects of the "doomsday", feel free to create another thread.

Edited by ThaiGoon
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Dude, Do you have the actual numbers for the past 10 or more years?

I found this from ADB website (albeit not the past 10 year data you are looking for):

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/200...ate/statapp.asp

Thailand's GDP growth:

2003: 7.0

2004: 6.2

2005: 4.5

2006: 4.2

2007: 4.0

ADB also expects Thailand's "high flying" neighbors (as people like jayjayjayjay would call them), Malaysia and Singapore, to grow 5.0% and 4.6% respectively this year. And these countries are expected to achieve these "astronomical" growths while they are enjoying life without the coup, new year's day bombings, unrest in the deep South, capital controls, the controversial amendment to the FBA, and a junta gov't to worry about. Meanwhile, Thailand having all those problems is apparently doomed with the expected 4% ish growth. :o:D

Thanks.

The numbers here follow Thaksin or at least that is what I see. 2005 there was a lot going on and Thaksin had his hands full keeping his corruption below the surface. Also if memory servers that is when he was given super powers to deal with the south.

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Since Singapore's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5% in 2007-08, I guess it's going down in flames as well then. :o

http://www.economist.com/countries/Singapo...rofile-Forecast

And from your own sources, Singapore Updated to 6.6% GDP growth in 2007! Thailand, the lowest out of all southeast Asian countries, not something we want. At the same time, a super strong baht making our existing export business almost unliveable, not to mention inflation directly affecting our staff with whom we empathise.... so Vietnam IS being seriously talked about.

Dude, no offense, but I hope you aren't retarded. First of all, you quoted the wrong link (it's actually from ADB not the economist). And secondly, that 6.6% growth is the updated number for 2006 not 2007! For 2007, it's expected to be 4.6% for both the initial estimate and the upadted one. :D Talking about an intellect who can't read a table properly. :D

I stand corrected, to many coloured columns and to much for a Saturday morning, what between hitting my head against walls constantly trying to explain the most basic of operational changes to our companies Supervisors, yes, I have to work Saturday's just to keep headoffice from closing down our Thai plant........

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As for strong Baht affecting the export busniess, yes that's right. But it affects more on the sector that uses domestic materials (i.e the agricultural sector.) Other sectors like electronics and auto actually are benefiting from it as they import a lot of the componets from abroad. That's why the export sector and hence the trade surplus keep growing...and recently it's resulted in (or re-enforced) strong baht. :o

Thaigoon, I am not saying you are wrong, but can you please explain this better?

Let's say that a auto company imports materials which make up 1/2 of the cost of the product from Japan or China, where the baht has gotten stronger, and 1/2 of the cost is from labor, power, Thai components, etc.  With a 15% appreciation of the baht, the first 1/2 of the cost of goods sold is cheaper, making the total cost of the product rou

hly 92.5% of what it would be with a steady baht.  But when getting paid in dollars or ye

 for that product, the buyer must pay 115% in order for the manufacturer to get the same amount if the baht had been stead

.

Factor in the savings from the less expensive components, and the cost for this Thai product is still higher.  So that should act to lower exports.

Edited by bonobo
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As for strong Baht affecting the export busniess, yes that's right. But it affects more on the sector that uses domestic materials (i.e the agricultural sector.) Other sectors like electronics and auto actually are benefiting from it as they import a lot of the componets from abroad. That's why the export sector and hence the trade surplus keep growing...and recently it's resulted in (or re-enforced) strong baht. :o

Thaigoon, I am not saying you are wrong, but can you please explain this better?

Let's say that a auto company imports materials which make up 1/2 of the cost of the product from Japan or China, where the baht has gotten stronger, and 1/2 of the cost is from labor, power, Thai components, etc.  With a 15% appreciation of the baht, the first 1/2 of the cost of goods sold is cheaper, making the total cost of the product rou

hly 92.5% of what it would be with a steady baht.  But when getting paid in dollars or ye

 for that product, the buyer must pay 115% in order for the manufacturer to get the same amount if the baht had been stead

.

Factor in the savings from the less expensive components, and the cost for this Thai product is still higher.  So that should act to lower exports.

Pretty simple to explain actually. As long as the majority of materials used in manufacturing (more than 50%) are imported, the final costs of the products will always be cheaper thanks to stronger baht. Just think about it.

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As for strong Baht affecting the export busniess, yes that's right. But it affects more on the sector that uses domestic materials (i.e the agricultural sector.) Other sectors like electronics and auto actually are benefiting from it as they import a lot of the componets from abroad. That's why the export sector and hence the trade surplus keep growing...and recently it's resulted in (or re-enforced) strong baht. :o

Thaigoon, I am not saying you are wrong, but can you please explain this better?

Let's say that a auto company imports materials which make up 1/2 of the cost of the product from Japan or China, where the baht has gotten stronger, and 1/2 of the cost is from labor, power, Thai components, etc.  With a 15% appreciation of the baht, the first 1/2 of the cost of goods sold is cheaper, making the total cost of the product rou

hly 92.5% of what it would be with a steady baht.  But when getting paid in dollars or ye

 for that product, the buyer must pay 115% in order for the manufacturer to get the same amount if the baht had been stead

.

Factor in the savings from the less expensive components, and the cost for this Thai product is still higher.  So that should act to lower exports.

Pretty simple to explain actually. As long as the majority of materials used in manufacturing (more than 50%) are imported, the final costs of the products will always be cheaper thanks to stronger baht. Just think about it.

Once again, I don't get the math.  I was a professor of business, so I am not a total veg, but I still don't get it.

The higher the percentage of imported content, the less the "hit" in the final product.  But as long as there is any Thai content, be it materials, labor, utilities, etc, then there will always be some degree of higher cost for the end customer due to the higher baht.

For example, with the baht at 40, let's make a hypothetical product which uses 50% imported content.

For a $1 product at 40 baht to the dollar, it costs 20 baht for the imported content, then 20 baht for the rest of the costs.

At 34 baht to the dollar, it would now only costs 17 baht for the same imported content. But it still costs the same 20 baht for the domestic contribution. That makes the total cost of goods sold 37 baht. For export, though, this now equates to $1.09. That is how much a buyer will have to pay for the product, which is almost 10% more than when the bat was at 40 to the dollar.

Am I missing something here?

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Once again, I don't get the math.  I was a professor of business, so I am not a total veg, but I still don't get it.

The higher the percentage of imported content, the less the "hit" in the final product.  But as long as there is any Thai content, be it materials, labor, utilities, etc, then there will always be some degree of higher cost for the end customer due to the higher baht.

For example, with the baht at 40, let's make a hypothetical product which uses 50% imported content.

For a $1 product at 40 baht to the dollar, it costs 20 baht for the imported content, then 20 baht for the rest of the costs.

At 34 baht to the dollar, it would now only costs 17 baht for the same imported content. But it still costs the same 20 baht for the domestic contribution. That makes the total cost of goods sold 37 baht. For export, though, this now equates to $1.09. That is how much a buyer will have to pay for the product, which is almost 10% more than when the bat was at 40 to the dollar.

Am I missing something here?

You are actually right. I was wrong. The fact of the matter is that strong baht doesn't impact the businesses that rely heavily on imported materials as much as the ones who solely use all domestic materials. You are right that as long as there is any Thai element, the final cost will always be higher. What's happening right now where the export still grows at about 6% (or 11% I'm not sure) since the beginning of this year is because most Thai exports use a lot of imported content for their manufacturing. I should have thought it through. It's actually pretty simple. :o

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Once again, I don't get the math.  I was a professor of business, so I am not a total veg, but I still don't get it.

The higher the percentage of imported content, the less the "hit" in the final product.  But as long as there is any Thai content, be it materials, labor, utilities, etc, then there will always be some degree of higher cost for the end customer due to the higher baht.

For example, with the baht at 40, let's make a hypothetical product which uses 50% imported content.

For a $1 product at 40 baht to the dollar, it costs 20 baht for the imported content, then 20 baht for the rest of the costs.

At 34 baht to the dollar, it would now only costs 17 baht for the same imported content. But it still costs the same 20 baht for the domestic contribution. That makes the total cost of goods sold 37 baht. For export, though, this now equates to $1.09. That is how much a buyer will have to pay for the product, which is almost 10% more than when the bat was at 40 to the dollar.

Am I missing something here?

You are actually right. I was wrong. The fact of the matter is that strong baht doesn't impact the businesses that rely heavily on imported materials as much as the ones who solely use all domestic materials. You are right that as long as there is any Thai element, the final cost will always be higher. What's happening right now where the export still grows at about 6% (or 11% I'm not sure) since the beginning of this year is because most Thai exports use a lot of imported content for their manufacturing. I should have thought it through. It's actually pretty simple. :o

I was hoping there was something I was missing.  My main job is with plastic bags, and we do import some of the resin.  We have lost several large international contracts these past couple months, and two others have put us on hold until the baht depreciates some.  We make a much better quality than the Chinese, but where we were once had to only overcome a 5% price difference, now we have to overcome a 20%. That is just too much depsite our better quality.

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Once again, I don't get the math. I was a professor of business, so I am not a total veg, but I still don't get it.

The higher the percentage of imported content, the less the "hit" in the final product. But as long as there is any Thai content, be it materials, labor, utilities, etc, then there will always be some degree of higher cost for the end customer due to the higher baht.

For example, with the baht at 40, let's make a hypothetical product which uses 50% imported content.

For a $1 product at 40 baht to the dollar, it costs 20 baht for the imported content, then 20 baht for the rest of the costs.

At 34 baht to the dollar, it would now only costs 17 baht for the same imported content. But it still costs the same 20 baht for the domestic contribution. That makes the total cost of goods sold 37 baht. For export, though, this now equates to $1.09. That is how much a buyer will have to pay for the product, which is almost 10% more than when the bat was at 40 to the dollar.

Am I missing something here?

You are actually right. I was wrong. The fact of the matter is that strong baht doesn't impact the businesses that rely heavily on imported materials as much as the ones who solely use all domestic materials. You are right that as long as there is any Thai element, the final cost will always be higher. What's happening right now where the export still grows at about 6% (or 11% I'm not sure) since the beginning of this year is because most Thai exports use a lot of imported content for their manufacturing. I should have thought it through. It's actually pretty simple. :o

Export orders are taken 90 to 120 days in advance. This will vary greatly by industry. You know the obvious in terms of Jan to Mar orders, it is what is happening with orders right NOW that is scaring the hel_l out of us!

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Public expenditure and investment is slowing down

Fiscal and monetary experts report that domestic expenditure and investment in the private sector, and investment by foreign investors are reportedly slowing down.

Financial specialist from the National Institute of Develpoment Administration (NIDA), Asst Prof Dr. Montri Sokatiyanurak (มนตรี โสคติยานุรักษ์), says a decrease in the nation's interest rate would help stimulate investment and boost national economy. However a reduction of interest rate will lead to a difference between domestic interest rate and foreign interest rates. The difference might cause a weakening of the baht currency.

Asst Prof Dr. Montri said that the Ministry of Finance is normally tasked with utilizing central government budget to promote national economic growth, while the Bank of Thailand plays a key role in managing monetary policies. According to the meeting of financial committee, the reduction of interest rate is expected to take place again.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 09 April 2007

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Financial specialist from the National Institute of Develpoment Administration (NIDA), Asst Prof Dr. Montri Sokatiyanurak (มนตรี โสคติยานุรักษ์), says a decrease in the nation's interest rate would help stimulate investment and boost national economy. However a reduction of interest rate will lead to a difference between domestic interest rate and foreign interest rates. The difference might cause a weakening of the baht currency.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 09 April 2007

and how nice that would be.......... :o:D

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Govt. improving the country’s investment atmosphere

Industry Minister indicates the government is trying to improve the country’s investment atmosphere to regain foreign investor's confidence.

Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆษิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฏ์) discloses that the slow-down of the Thai economy has been obvious since the fourth quarter of 2006. He says the slow-down is due to the fact that the export sector remains the country’s main source of income and the decrease in domestic consumption during the previous year.

Mr Kosit adds that the lack of foreign investment has also affected this year’s economy. However, he affirms that the government’s economic team speeds up stimulating the investment sector.

The minister expects that the foreign investment would be continuously improved after the Prime Minister has signed the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (JTEPA) with Japan last week.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 09 April 2007

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Govt. improving the country’s investment atmosphere

Industry Minister indicates the government is trying to improve the country’s investment atmosphere to regain foreign investor's confidence.

Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆษิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฏ์) discloses that the slow-down of the Thai economy has been obvious since the fourth quarter of 2006. He says the slow-down is due to the fact that the export sector remains the country’s main source of income and the decrease in domestic consumption during the previous year.

Mr Kosit adds that the lack of foreign investment has also affected this year’s economy. However, he affirms that the government’s economic team speeds up stimulating the investment sector.

The minister expects that the foreign investment would be continuously improved after the Prime Minister has signed the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (JTEPA) with Japan last week.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 09 April 2007

Captain Obvious apart from the Headline .............. :o

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Thailand's Central Bank May Cut Rate for Third Time This Year

Thailand's central bank will probably cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time this year to spur the slowing economy and curb gains in the baht as confidence slides and anti-government protests mount.

The Bank of Thailand will lower its one-day bond repurchase rate to 4 percent from 4.50 percent, according to 10 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The other six economists in the poll expect a quarter of a percent cut. The decision is due at 2 p.m. tomorrow in Bangkok.

"The Bank of Thailand is likely to cut the rate to kick- start the economy and tie down the ever-appreciating baht,'' Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. in Hong Kong wrote in an e-mailed note. "Policy makers have become worried about the growth outlook given recent political and policy upsets.''

Protests are planned in Bangkok this week by as many as 12 groups opposed to the September coup and critical of the military-installed government's performance plan. The nation's finance minister has called for lower rates to spur spending after investment curbs and terrorist attacks eroded confidence.

The central bank has cut its key rate by 25 basis points at two previous meetings this year. A 50-basis-point cut at tomorrow's meeting would be the biggest reduction since June 2003. A basis point is equivalent to 0.01 percentage point.

Baht Gains

The baht is trading near its highest level against the dollar in nine years after Bank of Thailand measures to curb the currency's 16 percent surge last year by penalizing foreign investors backfired. Limits on bringing money into the country eroded consumer and business confidence, crimping imports, and caused rifts within the government.

"This baht scenario is obviously not good,'' said Catherine Tan, head of emerging markets at Forecast Singapore Pte. "Exporters are still receiving money and they have to sell the dollars they receive,'' which is pushing the baht higher.

Inflation slowed to 2 percent in March, the lowest in three years, from 2.3 percent a month earlier as consumption cooled amid a slump in confidence.

A measure of business sentiment tumbled to the lowest in more than five years in February. An index of consumer confidence fell for a fourth month in February, dropping to a six-month low. The gauge has slid for 15 of the past 17 months.

The International Monetary Fund on March 23 cut Thailand's 2007 economic growth outlook for a second time in six months, lowering it to 4.5 percent from 5 percent. The economy expanded 5 percent last year, with fourth-quarter growth of 4.2 percent the slowest pace in almost two years.

Cut Rates

Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn, a critic of the central bank's currency controls before joining the government, said last month the benchmark rate must be cut to encourage consumer spending and spur the slowing economy. Chalongphob replaced Pridiyathorn Devakula, a supporter of the investment restrictions who quit citing disputes with other Cabinet members.

"Given that the central bank's capital controls have thus far failed to curb the baht's strength, the Finance Ministry is believed to be advocating for more aggressive interest rate cuts,'' Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note to clients.

The baht has climbed 2.3 percent this year to 34.92 per dollar onshore. An offshore rate, spawned by the investment restrictions, has surged four times faster.

Source: Bloomberg - 10 April 2007

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WB warns Thailand of falling private investments

The World Bank (WB) on Thursday revised down its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2007 from 4.6 percent to 4.3 percent.

Kazi Matin, the WB's lead economist on Thailand said that confidence Thailand's investment climate has hit a new low.

Following the coup last year, the military-appointed government has imposed measures that have shaken the foreign business community, such as the capital controls in December and proposed amendments to the Foreign Business Act in January that block loopholes which allowed foreigners to control local investments without holding majority equity stake.

- The Nation

I have been re-assigned on a part-time basis to Ho Chi Minh City due to a lack of work in Thailand, and having been here for several days, all i can say to the Thai government is Wake Up!, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam here is deregulating industry and opening almost all doors to foreign investment, all this while the Thais are wringing their hands over over their stupid existential needs. the new Law on Enterprises released by the National Assembly does not descriminate anymore between local busineses and foreign joint ventures. the people here are young, polite, eager to learn, and very energetic. the world is not standing still while Thailand moves backwards, its forging ahead, so if and when Thailand finally wakes up, they have to run double fast to catch up. seeing the industrious and motivated people here in Vietnam, i have serious concerns if that will ever happen. i wished i could bring some of my thai staff here to see the incredible work rate at my vietnam office, even the secretary is a dynamo, she literally runs from task to task in the office, always on top of matters, i feel tired just looking at her work. it seems the world has already forgotten about thailand as they all descend on this city, its all buzzing with action here. hotels are 100% occupied and turning away people, offices are crammed with no space left for expansion. i have business deals coming out of my ears. the Thai government has no idea what is happening at their doorstep. :D

Good post Dude.

The other day I made a comment that Thailand is still a Third world country and is going backwoods at a fast rate, all I got was FLAME from the ones that refuse to take off their rose coloured glasses.

In a couple of years the powers to be in Thailand will be sitting around scratching their heads saying none of this would have happened if the foreigners had not come here. Then say where have all of the Farlangs gone?

I have made some comments about this in different topics on TV and all I get is FLAMED by idiots that would not have a clue. I get my information from Thai business people here and they are saying now where are all of the Farlangs gone. Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Malaysia, etc etc.

Thailand has changed and still changing not for the better though. I would like to take a look at this situation in about a year and see how Thailand is coping IMO it wont be good.

There are plenty of options around this SEA area and the Foreigners are voting with their feet.

Before the members start FLAMING me again I am NOT a sex tourist, I dont have any Visa Problems and I couldnt care less about the price of Chang. (Do you get all of that Bendix?) There are also people on TV that know me and met me and can verify my statements.

"WAKE UP THAILAND THE WORLD IS PASSING YOU BY"

Have a nice day Gentlemen. :D

Yep! I agree 100%. I've lived here 25 years, and I am getting ready to leave. Not sure where just yet, but you can be sure I'll be taking my business, my money, and my family with me when I go. Thailand is going to hel_l in a basket.

And guess what? None of these current political shenanigans affect my ability to stay here because I run a BOI company. So, when I leave, all that lovely foreign money we generate will dry up too. Jeez! So sorry Thailand. You screwed up badly.

:o

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WB warns Thailand of falling private investments

The World Bank (WB) on Thursday revised down its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2007 from 4.6 percent to 4.3 percent.

Kazi Matin, the WB's lead economist on Thailand said that confidence Thailand's investment climate has hit a new low.

Following the coup last year, the military-appointed government has imposed measures that have shaken the foreign business community, such as the capital controls in December and proposed amendments to the Foreign Business Act in January that block loopholes which allowed foreigners to control local investments without holding majority equity stake.

- The Nation

I have been re-assigned on a part-time basis to Ho Chi Minh City due to a lack of work in Thailand, and having been here for several days, all i can say to the Thai government is Wake Up!, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam here is deregulating industry and opening almost all doors to foreign investment, all this while the Thais are wringing their hands over over their stupid existential needs. the new Law on Enterprises released by the National Assembly does not descriminate anymore between local busineses and foreign joint ventures. the people here are young, polite, eager to learn, and very energetic. the world is not standing still while Thailand moves backwards, its forging ahead, so if and when Thailand finally wakes up, they have to run double fast to catch up. seeing the industrious and motivated people here in Vietnam, i have serious concerns if that will ever happen. i wished i could bring some of my thai staff here to see the incredible work rate at my vietnam office, even the secretary is a dynamo, she literally runs from task to task in the office, always on top of matters, i feel tired just looking at her work. it seems the world has already forgotten about thailand as they all descend on this city, its all buzzing with action here. hotels are 100% occupied and turning away people, offices are crammed with no space left for expansion. i have business deals coming out of my ears. the Thai government has no idea what is happening at their doorstep. :D

Good post Dude.

The other day I made a comment that Thailand is still a Third world country and is going backwoods at a fast rate, all I got was FLAME from the ones that refuse to take off their rose coloured glasses.

In a couple of years the powers to be in Thailand will be sitting around scratching their heads saying none of this would have happened if the foreigners had not come here. Then say where have all of the Farlangs gone?

I have made some comments about this in different topics on TV and all I get is FLAMED by idiots that would not have a clue. I get my information from Thai business people here and they are saying now where are all of the Farlangs gone. Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Malaysia, etc etc.

Thailand has changed and still changing not for the better though. I would like to take a look at this situation in about a year and see how Thailand is coping IMO it wont be good.

There are plenty of options around this SEA area and the Foreigners are voting with their feet.

Before the members start FLAMING me again I am NOT a sex tourist, I dont have any Visa Problems and I couldnt care less about the price of Chang. (Do you get all of that Bendix?) There are also people on TV that know me and met me and can verify my statements.

"WAKE UP THAILAND THE WORLD IS PASSING YOU BY"

Have a nice day Gentlemen. :D

Yep! I agree 100%. I've lived here 25 years, and I am getting ready to leave. Not sure where just yet, but you can be sure I'll be taking my business, my money, and my family with me when I go. Thailand is going to hel_l in a basket.

And guess what? None of these current political shenanigans affect my ability to stay here because I run a BOI company. So, when I leave, all that lovely foreign money we generate will dry up too. Jeez! So sorry Thailand. You screwed up badly.

:o

Sorry to read your message MarcHolt but I can't blame you. I see more and more messages like yours and it's a sad and worrying story for Thailand.

Many TV'ers don't see the broader picture yet but it's also understandable.

I think TV members can be divided into -basically- three groups.

* The farang/expats, single, or into a relation with a Thai female/male, without any business interests (living on money from abroad or else) and still enjoying their stay, despite all the new problematic visa-rules and expensive Baht.

* Business 'Farang' who live in Thailand and make a living here (with or without a Thai relationship)

* short term tourists who joined TV for information or out of interest for/with Thailand

The point with the last group, the short-term tourists is, that they will keep coming to Thailand anyway, untill the moment they find out that the Baht is so expensive...and will book another destination where it's cheaper.

The point with the first 2 groups is that they are the ones feeling more and more uncomfortable with the situation and will, at a certain moment (like yourself) decide to leave or keep struggling because they have no other option (own a house, business, famil etc).

The OP topic is about 'easing Capital Controls' but in my own humble opinion Thailand needs much more than that.

It needs to take drastic steps to regain Foreign Investors' confidence; but I'm afraid it's a bit too late.

Thailand would gain enormous confidence again if it would allow:

1. foreigners to buy land (let's say up to 1 Rai) and house for retirement.

2. 'Ease' the Visa rules (like Malaysia did)

3. A devaluation of the Baht; lowering the Central Banks' rates will not be enough.

The problem with a devaluation of the Baht will be the Export sector -but that's only on a short term- (who receive US$'s and exchange them into Baht) as well as the Import sector -more expensive to buy foreign products, like oil and steel etc. as well lose of face in the SE Asian Region.

But, I know....TiT :D

LaoPo

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