Breaking the deadlock over Brexit: Is Britain heading for a general election?

[webfact]

Breaking the deadlock over Brexit: Is Britain heading for a general election?

By Kylie MacLellan

 

An Anti-Brexit sign is seen next to a statue of King Richard I outside the Houses of Parliament, in Westminster, London, Britain March 4, 2019. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

 

LONDON (Reuters) - With Britain's parliament deadlocked over the way forward on Brexit, speculation was growing on Sunday that Prime Minister Theresa May could call a snap election to try and break the impasse.

 

Last week, after her Brexit deal was rejected by parliament for a third time, May's comment that she feared "we are reaching the limits of this process in this House", was seen by many as a hint she could be moving towards an election.

 

The Sunday Times reported her media chief, Robbie Gibb, and her political aide Stephen Parkinson were pushing for an election.

 

But the deputy chair of her Conservatives, James Cleverly said on Sunday the party was not planning for an election, while justice minister David Gauke warned it would not solve the issue over the way forward on Brexit.

 

In 2017, May lost her party's majority in parliament in an election she did not need to call. It has since been reliant on the support of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which has voted against her Brexit deal all three times.

 

HOW CAN AN ELECTION BE CALLED?

Britain's next national election is not due to be held until 2022, but there are two ways an earlier vote can be called:

 

1) Two-thirds of parliament's 650 lawmakers would have to vote in favour of holding an election.

 

2) If a motion of no confidence in the government is passed by a simple majority of lawmakers and no party can succeed in winning the confidence of the House of Commons over the next 14-days, an election is triggered.

 

Many of May's Conservatives oppose the idea of an election. If she cannot persuade enough of her party to support an election, May could be forced to back a no-confidence vote in her own government in order to try to trigger one.

 

WHO WOULD LEAD THE CONSERVATIVES INTO AN ELECTION?

Last week, in a bid to win Conservative lawmakers over to her deal, May promised to step down before the next phase of Brexit negotiations if her deal was approved by parliament. She has previously said she would not contest the 2022 election.

 

May's deal was rejected for a third time on Friday. Even if she were to agree to go sooner, a Conservative leadership contest is likely to take weeks at a minimum.

 

On Sunday, Conservative deputy chairman James Cleverly told Sky News it was "the inevitable possibility" that May could have to lead the party in a snap election if one were held.

 

WHAT WOULD THE CONSERVATIVES' POSITION BE ON BREXIT?

One of the biggest difficulties about an election would be the question of what the Conservative Party's election manifesto would say on Brexit.

 

The party is deeply divided on the issue. Half of May's lawmakers voted in favour of a 'no deal'Brexit when parliament voted on alternative Brexit options last week, while 34 supported seeking a customs union with the EU and eight backed a confirmatory public vote on any deal.

 

Many lawmakers are likely to be unhappy standing on a manifesto which pledged to implement May's deal. More than 100 Conservative lawmakers opposed the deal when it was first voted on in January, 75 voted against it at the second try and 34 at the third attempt on Friday.

 

WHAT DO THE OPINION POLLS SAY?

A poll by Opinium published on Sunday put May's Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party level on 35 percentage points each.

 

A separate poll by Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday gave Labour 41 percent, a lead of five percentage points over the Conservatives, who were on 36 percent.

 

HOW QUICKLY COULD AN ELECTION BE HELD?

Britain is due to leave the EU on April 12 unless it sets out an alternative way forward on Brexit. The government would need to seek a longer delay to the Article 50 negotiating period in order to hold a national election.

 

It is likely the EU would agree to this, although it is not guaranteed. May has said any longer delay would mean Britain taking place in European Parliament elections.

 

According to a possible timetable set out by the Institute for Government, an election could be held as soon as mid-late May. If is triggered by a no confidence vote, it would be slightly later due to the 14-day period.

 

(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan; editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-04-01

[Laughing Gravy]

I would love a GE but I don't think there will be one as mentioned in today's papers both Labour and Conservative MP's are asking TM not to have one, as they know many of them will be kicked out by their constituents. Far to many self serving MP's in parliament today.

[Topdoc]

Not satisfied with losing three votes on her 'surrender to Merkel' document she now wants to blackmail her own party with the threat of a general election. 
"Vote for me or you will all likely lose your seats."

 

[sammieuk1]

The photo clearly depicts what day it is ????

[Loiner]

Both main parties are too afraid of losing seats to UKIP and the Brexit party. They won’t go down that route easily, but these are strange days.


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[Bluespunk]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

On Sunday, Conservative deputy chairman James Cleverly told Sky News it was "the inevitable possibility" that May could have to lead the party in a snap election if one were held.

“lead the party”?

 

Yeah, right

 

May has no idea how to lead or inspire her party. 

 

Leadership is not her trademark, ineptitude-yes, leadership-no. 

[doctormann]

2 hours ago, Topdoc said:

Not satisfied with losing three votes on her 'surrender to Merkel' document she now wants to blackmail her own party with the threat of a general election. 
"Vote for me or you will all likely lose your seats."

 

To quote Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, 'They must go on voting until they get it right'.

[vogie]

4 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

“lead the party”?

 

Yeah, right

 

May has no idea how to lead or inspire her party. 

 

Leadership is not her trademark, ineptitude-yes, leadership-no. 

If you think that Corbyn is the US Cavalry just waiting to come charging in and saving the day, I would have a re-think. The country will be in an even dire situation.

 

But I agree with your post.

[Thian]

I wished the EU made the decission and pulled the plug....bye bye!!

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

The photo clearly depicts what day it is ????

The photo clearly depicts Richard the Lionheart. Now he would have been a much better mascot for the Brexiters being the famous crusader!

 

(of course Reuters wouldn't realize that ????)

Edited April 1, 2019 by Grouse

[Bluespunk]

18 minutes ago, vogie said:

If you think that Corbyn is the US Cavalry just waiting to come charging in and saving the day, I would have a re-think. The country will be in an even dire situation.

 

But I agree with your post.

I have no idea how corbyn would do as pm and, despite your incorrect assertion, I am not promoting him as such. 

[ballpoint]

 

8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The photo clearly depicts Richard the Lionheart. Now he would have been a much better mascot for the Brexiters being the famous crusader! 

 

(of course Reuters wouldn't realize that ????)

He mistook it for a statue of Queen April, the First.

[malagateddy]

Who is now I believe the top kiddie for Goldman Sach's european operations.
FUNNY OLD WORLD!!!

To quote Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, 'They must go on voting until they get it right'.

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[malagateddy]

So do I as a Brexiteer!!!!!

I wished the EU made the decission and pulled the plug....bye bye!!

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[Bluespunk]

21 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The photo clearly depicts Richard the Lionheart. Now he would have been a much better mascot for the Brexiters being the famous crusader!

 

(of course Reuters wouldn't realize that ????)

As Richard I ruled in both U.K. and France, I’d say he’s the perfect candidate for greater European unity. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Bluespunk

[vogie]

40 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

As Richard I ruled in both U.K. and France, I’d say he’s the perfect candidate for greater European unity. 

I would have thought that his inability to speak english would hardly be advantagious for such a position.

[Basil B]

there will be no GE until either we have an long extension or we are out EU, TM cannot call a GE without 2/3 of MP's support or losing a confidence vote.

Corbyn may move a "No Confidence Vote" but he would need support of all the other parties, and a 100% of his own MP's, highly unlikely at this time but he has nothing to gain other than the total decimation of the Tory party, he is highly unlikely to gain many seats with the prospect of a hung parliament, and if Labour were to become a dominating party it to would almost certainly self destruct.

 

Interest point the 2/3 majority is not a vote whereby abstainers and nonvoters are not counted but is of all MP's, it would be probably the second time Sinn Fein have voted and voted to retain the current, by not voting, (first time 2017 vote for a GE).   

Edited April 1, 2019 by Basil B

[malagateddy]

Vogie..check out a message now!!

I would have thought that his inability to speak english would hardly be advantagious for such a position.

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[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Vogie..check out a message now!!

 

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I think you’ve scored Vogie.

 

 

[ivor bigun]

I have no great love for the traitor May,who is trying to sell us down the river to her masters in the EU,but the nightmare scenario of Corbyn leading the country over the cliff to economic destruction and the thought of someone like Abbott on the world stage is the thing nightmares are made of.

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[malagateddy]

I have no great love for the traitor May,who is trying to sell us down the river to her masters in the EU,but the nightmare scenario of Corbyn leading the country over the cliff to economic destruction and the thought of someone like Abbott on the world stage is the thing nightmares are made of.

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Relax..if there was to be another GE..imo..the tories would get slightly more seats than labour...BUT would need to go cap in hand to the DUP, the BREXIT PARTY and UKIP.

What fun that would be[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23].
Of course..a Brexiteer would be the PM ... ditto most of the Cabinet.[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

BRING IT ON NOW[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

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[BobBKK]

3 hours ago, Thian said:

I wished the EU made the decission and pulled the plug....bye bye!!

I wish I could pull your plug.

[malagateddy]

Forgot to say..then of course the VERY HARDLINE HOME SECY. WOULD PAY A FORTUNE TO EMPLOY BIG JOKE TO HEAD UP THE REVAMPED UKBA[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Relax..if there was to be another GE..imo..the tories would get slightly more seats than labour...BUT would need to go cap in hand to the DUP, the BREXIT PARTY and UKIP.

What fun that would be[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23].
Of course..a Brexiteer would be the PM ... ditto most of the Cabinet.[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

BRING IT ON NOW[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

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[mommysboy]

I do not think there will be a GE.  This just another attempted arm lock to force through the 'May deal'.

 

The most likely solution will be a deal (most likely the one on the table) with a confirmatory referendum. I imagine this will delight leavers, as it is democratic and an accurate reflection of the peoples' will.  

[puipuitom]

We need a wall between the EU and Fools country

[malagateddy]

If you are reffering to the UK as fools country..I'm sure there's some kinda water barrier..wait it's came to me..the North Sea and the English Channel.

We need a wall between the EU and Fools country

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[welovesundaysatspace]

5 hours ago, doctormann said:

To quote Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, 'They must go on voting until they get it right'.

...and never had the EC (or any other EU body) anything to do with a member state’s elections or referendums. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

29 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

If you are reffering to the UK as fools country..I'm sure there's some kinda water barrier..wait it's came to me..the North Sea and the English Channel.

 

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Let’s put it this way: it’s a great country that’s been infested by fools and demagogues since three years. 

[doctormann]

6 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

...and never had the EC (or any other EU body) anything to do with a member state’s elections or referendums. 

Barroso was not talking about voting in the UK so the quote is taken out of context in that respect.  The wording is still quite apt to the current situation with May's rejected deal though.

[Baerboxer]

8 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I would love a GE but I don't think there will be one as mentioned in today's papers both Labour and Conservative MP's are asking TM not to have one, as they know many of them will be kicked out by their constituents. Far to many self serving MP's in parliament today.

 

The problem with that is who do you think is likely to replace all those you envisage being kicked out?

 

And imagine the chaos with a Corbyn led minority government relying on the SNP propping them up!