CM:What's the effect of the smog on CM Songkran festival?

[thecyclist]

With pollution off the charts in northern Thailand , no doubt, health is the number one worry of northerners. But, CM being the mecca of Songkran revelers, and this massive source of revenue just around the corner, tourist-related business owners must be worrying about their pocketbooks as well. What are the projections and the mood up there. Probably a lot of Thais heading out to the temples to make merit and pray for the smog to miraculously lift. 

[Dante99]

We have a team of 479 technicians and computer experts working on the projections plus 326 psychologists evaluating the mood.  The report will be available on June 2.

We started the project with over 2,000 staff but more than half left town because the air was so bad so that is why the report will be completed later than planned.

 

FYI health is not the number one worry for northeners, the next round of alcohol/drugs and sex remain on top of the list.

[mike787]

if anyone cared, something would be done about it.  If it's bad or good for business, nobody cares. Period!  Life goes on.  welcome the LOS. 

[sammieuk1]

Wearing a smog mask whilst chucking water is recommended anyway as you sure don't want to end up with a face full of moat effluent ????

[khunpa]

40 minutes ago, mike787 said:

if anyone cared, something would be done about it.  If it's bad or good for business, nobody cares. Period!  Life goes on.  welcome the LOS. 

After 10+ years living in Thailand, I can only agree.

 

 

[khunpa]

The Thai people I know here are all pissed off about the smoke. But they also deep down know that nothing will be done, due to useless and incompetent officials.

 

Personally I am leaving Chiang Mai tomorrow with my family and will not return before the smoke is gone. That is also the time when all Thais will quickly forget about the smoke...... until next year, when it all repeats.

 

[ProbPossConf]

The wifey and I are going to the white sands of Waikiki and eat fish and poi...yummy.

[FolkGuitar]

The poor air quality in Chiang Mai at this time of year is not a new development. It's been going on every year, probably as long as Songkran has been going on. The difference is that with the increase in Internet and social media usage, we hear more people speaking about it.

 

What IS creating a 'slightly smaller' turnout for Songkran is the insanity that has been escalating around it. But that decrease is more Thai participation rather than tourist. Last year we did see a decrease in the number of bands around the moat, fewer bands at some of the shopping malls, and fewer cars on the major streets later in the afternoons. Still plenty of foreigners walking around making fools of themselves, pretending to be the outlaw Josey Wales, having no clue what so ever what the festival is actually all about!

[Zack61]

Songkran is the solution to the smoke problem and must go on. All that water being thrown around will be the cure. Hallelujah. 

[amexpat]

1 hour ago, FolkGuitar said:

The difference is that with the increase in Internet and social media usage, we hear more people speaking about it.

Really?  What a soothing thought. I thought the current levels were demolishing all-time records.

[millymoopoo]

I would suggest full SCUBA gear, oxygen bottles, full face mask and wetsuit..!

If the smog doesn't get you the sewage from the moat will..!

[MrBrad]

According to at least one of my Thai neighbors, the pollution this year is worse than ever before.  He remembers when he was younger that Chiang Mai skies were always clear, so it's not been since forever that this crud has appeared every February, March, and April. 

[vivid]

17 minutes ago, millymoopoo said:

I would suggest full SCUBA gear, oxygen bottles, full face mask and wetsuit..!

If the smog doesn't get you the sewage from the moat will..!

BTW, what kind of water do they use in Songkran in CM?    Is water precious there during this time of the year?

 

There is a very similar "water fight festival" in a small indonesian town that is done during Chinese New Year, some people used to use water from the drains until the authorities banned it.   ????   

 

 

 

[Sparkles]

1 hour ago, MrBrad said:

According to at least one of my Thai neighbors, the pollution this year is worse than ever before.  He remembers when he was younger that Chiang Mai skies were always clear, so it's not been since forever that this crud has appeared every February, March, and April. 

I can only comment on the last 10 years and it certainly wasnt this bad back then when we first arrived,yes there was some burning but not to the extent it is right now.The numbers of those wearing masks and the numbers admitted to hospitals as outlined by Hospital officials would indicate that the summit has been reached.

 

The issue could easily be resolved if there was a will to do it from authorities and their imput has been pathetic.

 

TAT no doubt will be holding their collective breaths and hoping rain will be its saviour

 

[orang37]

3 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

The poor air quality in Chiang Mai at this time of year is not a new development. It's been going on every year, probably as long as Songkran has been going on. The difference is that with the increase in Internet and social media usage, we hear more people speaking about it.

 

What IS creating a 'slightly smaller' turnout for Songkran is the insanity that has been escalating around it. But that decrease is more Thai participation rather than tourist. Last year we did see a decrease in the number of bands around the moat, fewer bands at some of the shopping malls, and fewer cars on the major streets later in the afternoons. Still plenty of foreigners walking around making fools of themselves, pretending to be the outlaw Josey Wales, having no clue what so ever what the festival is actually all about!

 

I have to disagree with you, here: imho, this year's pollution levels are record-breaking as well as lung-breaking. I hypothesize there has been a structural change in the annual burning cycle related to more corn cultivation on a larger scale, and the clearing of land for that cultivation; other factors could include global/regional climate change (wind patterns), long-term climate variations.

 

Historically, Songkran has been a time for a major size group of Thais from all over the Kingdom to come here  (both tourists, and northern residents working elsewhere(, as well as, in the last 20+ years, the swarms of foreign tourists helped along by the TAT promotion. I would assume ... a dangerous thing to do in Amazing T ... that a lot of intelligent Thais ... the potential tourist cohort ... will not plan to come here this year.

 

So far, this year, on this forum, I haven't seen any more-than-guess info on how Songkran hotel bookings are, if tours have been cancelled. etc. I'd really like to see some "harder" data.

 

Quote

"What IS creating a 'slightly smaller' turnout for Songkran is the insanity that has been escalating around it."

Evidence ?

 

cheers, ~o:37;

[brommers]

As the forecast is for this pollution to last until May I suggest that anyone thinking of coming to CM should stay away. Why risk your health for something that can be enjoyed in many other locations in Thailand and other SEA countries.

[vivid]

46 minutes ago, brommers said:

As the forecast is for this pollution to last until May I suggest that anyone thinking of coming to CM should stay away. Why risk your health for something that can be enjoyed in many other locations in Thailand and other SEA countries.

Actually some have posted that 1 week+ to 2 weeks ago.   Those staying probably would just stay on.    Those having thoughts of leaving + can leave, would have left at least 1 week ago.  

 

The levels in Myanmar are truly amazing.  16hrs of 4-figure AQIs.

AQI 392, 1153, 1738, 2404, 2929 ,3355, 2740, 1531, 1406, 1550, 1632, 1629. 1617, 1631, 1764, 2011, 1483, 503

[totally thaied up]

Songkran has been getting slower each year. Last year, numbers were down. My wife and I left for the first time two weeks ago to Australia when the smoke was getting to levels I have not seen before. It just got worse. I blame all the corn and the arsonists that torch the forests for profit in mushrooms. 

 

From March onwards, Chiang Mai is not a healthy place to live so I take my business elsewhere. It has just got too crazy for me now and my wife and lungs don’t need a packet of cigarettes poured down our throats each day when it is preventable.

 

Enoughs enough- Chiang Mai has lost my dollars for the next three months and I know many of my friends that for the first time this year left due to this problem. The Chinese may be use to the filthy air conditions but I am not.

[thecyclist]

18 hours ago, Dante99 said:

We have a team of 479 technicians and computer experts working on the projections plus 326 psychologists evaluating the mood.  The report will be available on June 2.

We started the project with over 2,000 staff but more than half left town because the air was so bad so that is why the report will be completed later than planned.

 

FYI health is not the number one worry for northeners, the next round of alcohol/drugs and sex remain on top of the list.

Alcohol and sex :I am sure is the number one worry of farang expats, for Thais it is money and face, then at no 2 and 3 money again. 

[mike787]

5 hours ago, millymoopoo said:

I would suggest full SCUBA gear, oxygen bottles, full face mask and wetsuit..!

If the smog doesn't get you the sewage from the moat will..!

Hazmat suit will work too.

[FolkGuitar]

7 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

The poor air quality in Chiang Mai at this time of year is not a new development. It's been going on every year, probably as long as Songkran has been going on. The difference is that with the increase in Internet and social media usage, we hear more people speaking about it.

 

 

5 hours ago, amexpat said:

Really?  What a soothing thought. I thought the current levels were demolishing all-time records.

 

Yes. That's right. And we hear more and more people speaking about it, as I said.

 

3 hours ago, orang37 said:

So far, this year, on this forum, I haven't seen any more-than-guess info on how Songkran hotel bookings are, if tours have been cancelled. etc. I'd really like to see some "harder" data.

Evidence ?

 

 

Evidence?!? This is ThaiVisa! We don need no stinking evidence! If we say it, it's fact!

But being kind, I will provide some anecdotal stuff...

Fewer and fewer bands playing around the moat over the past three years. Three and four years ago there were three different bandstands set up in front of Thapae Gate. Not last year...

Far less activity in front of Kad Suen Kaew and Maya for the past two years (I didn't see what was going on at Maya before that to compare)

Last year I could actually ride through most of Chiang Mai on the last day and not get the least bit wet. I believe a lot of people, especially locals, are getting tired of 4 days of Bedlam, and would be just as happy to see it reduced to one or two days. The Foreigners will still come, because they book their tickets long before Burning season and are not about to lose that.

Of course this is all conjecture. There is no hard evidence. At least none that a wise person would trust.

[emptypockets]

4 hours ago, vivid said:

Actually some have posted that 1 week+ to 2 weeks ago.   Those staying probably would just stay on.    Those having thoughts of leaving + can leave, would have left at least 1 week ago.  

 

The levels in Myanmar are truly amazing.  16hrs of 4-figure AQIs.

AQI 392, 1153, 1738, 2404, 2929 ,3355, 2740, 1531, 1406, 1550, 1632, 1629. 1617, 1631, 1764, 2011, 1483, 503

Where in Myanmar?  It is quite a large country.

Edited April 2, 2019 by emptypockets

[vivid]

32 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Where in Myanmar?  It is quite a large country.

Town of Mogok, Myanmar.  Population of 10k.

 

There is another one called Lashio in Myanmar, peaked at AQI 1608 late last night.  Population of 130k.

[THAIJAMES]

9 hours ago, amexpat said:

Really?  What a soothing thought. I thought the current levels were demolishing all-time records.

It's actually hard to really know because only a couple years ago the only sensors available in Chiang Mai were p.m. 10.  if you look carefully most the time p.m. 10 is much lower than PM 2.5

 

and now the numbers have suddenly jumped in the last couple years because they are using p.m. 2.5 measurements.

 

I do remember 10 or 15 years ago it was also very bad PM 2.5 just wasn't being measured.

 

Don't get me wrong I love that the pollution is getting all this attention and something needs to be done.

Edited April 2, 2019 by THAIJAMES

[cerox]

Doesnt have any effect. People will still celebrate.

Thai people go on with their lifes, pollution can be +700 like a few days ago they will still do stuff.

[vivid]

12 minutes ago, THAIJAMES said:

It's actually hard to really know because only a couple years ago the only sensors available in Chiang Mai were p.m. 10.  if you look carefully most the time p.m. 10 is much lower than PM 2.5

 

and now the numbers have suddenly jumped in the last couple years because they are using p.m. 2.5 measurements.

 

I do remember 10 or 15 years ago it was also very bad PM 2.5 just wasn't being measured.

 

Don't get me wrong I love that the pollution is getting all this attention and something needs to be done.

 

 

We can still use PCD's 24-hr moving average figures on PM10.  

I believe in 2015 the previous Chiang Mai city record was smashed, not sure if remember correctly but it was some 24-hr moving average 230 or 260 ug/m3 for PM10.

I saw the figure on both PCD and nation i think.....i'll try to google search, i shd be able to find the screenshot that i mad.e

 

This year i did not go check PCD often, but on a particularly bad weekend, i saw 36t and 37t stations (CM stations) doing 390+ ug/m3 PM10 24-hr moving average.  230 or 260 previous record, vs 390 ug/m3 this year (might have gone higher), such a large gap.....that i didn't even bother to go screenshoot as the peak values are even more interesting.

 

So, from then on, i didn't even bother to follow up, as the records were being continually broken all over N Thailand.

 

This year PM10 figures were doing comfortably over 1000 ug/m3 1hr transient peak,  have even seen 1300 ug/m3++ for Samoeng, there is no comparison at all vs previous years' records.

Edited April 2, 2019 by vivid

[vivid]

Unfortunately, i store most of the air quality graphs from PCD aqmthai on pbase.com and that gallery has been deleted.  But i found something in 2015's smog smoke dust thread for Thailand record.

 

Copy and paste from 2015's thread

 

Station 57t Chiang Rai, Natural Resources and Environment Office
Year 2015
2400hr
24-hr PM10 = 386 ug/m3

0400h 1hr PM10 = 454 ug/m3

BREAKING : Thailand's National 24hr concentration RECORD HAS BEEN BROKEN! (previous record was 382ug/m3 @ 14 March 2007)

Edited April 2, 2019 by vivid

[vivid]

Here :  Mae Sai, Chiang Rai province.  24-hr moving average on 31st Mar 2019.  Just an example, there might be other higher values.

 

24-hr PM10 = 400 ug/m3.  

 

[THAIJAMES]

Good point about using correlations pm 10 to pm 2.5.

And just plainly looking at the pm10 number.

 

Vivid has clearly shown that this year the record for 24 hour pm10 24-hour moving averages has been broken.

 

In other words the worst smoke pollution ever.

 

 

 

[orang37]

In previous years on this forum, we've had posts that described Songkran hotel bookings rates, tour cancellations, etc., by credible members, often appropriately disclaimer-ized by acknowledging second-hand sources. 

 

Given the "stake" of  "official agencies" in maintaining their Thai $miles, that's often the best we can get. And, hotels and other businesses do keep financial data private.

 

While I do not discount the personal observations of my respected friend, FolkGuitar, on this thread (but, do question the extent of his extrapolation from them), I'd like to hear some others.

 

I don't investigate what may/may not be going on in internet travel forums, but perhaps you ... do ?  Flight cancellation data ?  Notice any net average lower costs for hotel bookings than in previous years.

 

I find it interesting to think about what segment of possible incoming Songkran tourism visitors (domestic vs. international) would be most likely to not come because of weather/pollution. The richest ? The smartest ?

 

~o:37;