North Korea signals shift in nuclear diplomacy; Kim's right-hand man sidelined

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North Korea signals shift in nuclear diplomacy; Kim's right-hand man sidelined

By Hyonhee Shin

 

FILE PHOTO: North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho and Kim Yong Chol, Vice Chairman of the North Korean Workers' Party Committee, attend the extended bilateral meeting in the Metropole hotel with U.S. President Donald Trump and his delegation during the second North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam February 28, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo

 

SEOUL (Reuters) - The demotion of Kim Yong Chol, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's point man for nuclear talks with the United States, signals he has taken the fall for the failed second summit between the two countries, diplomats in Seoul and regional experts said.

 

The hawkish former general and spymaster was recently removed from a key party post and is expected to hand over his leading role in the nuclear talks to diplomats who had been previously restrained to playing a secondary part, they said.

 

Kim Yong Chol remains a formidable force in Pyongyang but there is no word whether he has been given a new role in the ultra-secretive North Korean power structure. He did not accompany Kim Jong Un to Russia this week for a summit with President Vladimir Putin, the North Korean leader's first international foray since his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi in February ended in disarray.

 

"The summit damaged the North's long-held principle that its leader never makes an error, so they have to shift the blame," said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.

 

"This may not mean an immediate shift in their U.S. strategy, but the diplomats will likely take the initiative to contain the fallout from Hanoi and promote diplomacy with various countries."

 

Kim Yong Chol was beside Kim through the last 12 months, including for his three meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, two with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the two Trump summits, in Singapore and Hanoi.

 

But for those who have known him as a hardline military general, Kim Yong Chol never seemed comfortable with the art of negotiating the roll back of his country's nuclear programme in exchange for concessions from the United States.

 

Kim avoided getting into details at negotiating sessions, instead leaving it to diplomats to build strategy, two diplomatic sources in Seoul familiar with the North's diplomatic engagements said.

 

Even then, he refused to yield control, one of the sources said.

 

"Whether or not he understood the issues, he kept a tight grip on the negotiations. It seemed like: 'Over my dead body I'm going to let Ri Yong Ho take over,'" the source said, referring to the North's foreign minister.

 

'REAL SPOKESWOMAN'

Ri and his deputy, Choe Son Hui, are seen to be taking over the vacuum left by Kim Yong Chol, flanking the leader as he met Putin on Thursday.

 

The collapse of the Hanoi summit was a major setback for Kim Jong Un, who, several sources said, was led to believe by hawkish aides like Kim Yong Chol that he was about to win sought-after sanctions relief in return for a promise to partially scrap nuclear facilities.

 

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at South Korea's Sejong Institute, said the demands Kim made of Trump in Hanoi had the hallmarks of the "best scenario" strategy advocated by hawks like Kim Yong Chol.

 

"But it turned out to be a scenario that the United States could never accept," Cheong said. "Kim Jong Un cutting his reliance on Kim Yong Chol is a positive sign for the negotiations."

 

The person who now appears to have Kim's ear is Vice Foreign Minister Choe, North Korea experts said.

 

She has steadily grown in influence over the last 15 years, rising from a junior player on the North's U.S. diplomacy team to become vice foreign minister and a member of the powerful State Affairs Commission.

 

She held several news conferences after the collapse of the Hanoi summit, playing the rare role of conveying Kim Jong Un's thinking.

 

Thae Yong Ho, former North Korean deputy ambassador in London who defected to the South in 2016, said Choe has joined an inner circle of women close to Kim Jong Un, including his sister and his wife.

 

"Now she's the real spokeswoman for Kim Jong Un," Thae told a forum hosted by the Asan Institute of Policy Studies on Wednesday in Seoul. "How can Choe read his mind? Because she has access."

 

A diplomatic source also said Choe appears to have built rapport with Kim Yo Jong, Kim's sister who is also a senior party official, which contributed to her recent promotion.

 

"We have to remember that (Foreign Minister) Ri and Choe are not only North Korea's best people for the job of dealing with the U.S.," said Michael Madden, a North Korea leadership expert at the U.S.-based Stimson Center.

 

"But they both have known the leader since he was a small boy so there is a dynamic of their wanting to see Kim Jong Un thrive and succeed."

 

(Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Additional reporting by Joyce Lee; Editing by Jack Kim and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-04-26

 

[MickeyDelux]

One indicator of a socialist government is that while the population suffers from malnutrition, the government's leader is grossly overweight.

[blazes]

Do tell us which fat leaders of which "socialist countries" would fit your bill?  Most of us here on TV enjoy history lessons....

[Srikcir]

Change in diplomatic leadership with regard to US-North Korea negotiations will do little to benefit Trump and likely further cripple future negotiations.

Kim Yong Chol met with Pompeo and Trump recently in January 2019. His direct absence will disrupt current US strategic plans for denuclearization.

Kim Jong Un cutting his reliance on Kim Yong Chol is NOT a positive sign for the negotiations.

Why?

Chol's replacement Ri Yong Ho is really no less an enthusiastic North Korean patriot than Chol.

In response to the collapsed Vietnam summit Ho clarified that North Korea asked for only “partial” sanctions relief in exchange for closing its Yongbyon nuclear facility, disputing Trump’s account that Kim asked the U.S. side to roll back all sanctions. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/28/pompeo-time-to-regroup-after-vietnam-summit-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-nuclear-summit-collapse-what-comes-next/

"Disputing Trump" does little to placate Trump who thrives on hero worship on a public failure. If Ho becomes the key negotiator, the Trump team will have to reset their strategies as well. You know Trump wants a nuclear deal in place before November 2020. Delays now in negotiations due to switch in North Korea's negotiating team are going to put more pressure on Trump than on Kim Jong Un. And that might actually play to Kim's benefit.