Fed pushes baht to 6-year high

[Cryingdick]

19 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Oh please, your propensity to protect Trump at all cost is glaring.  There are Americans in America who are much worse off than expats in Thailand.  Those in manufacturing, farmers, lobster fishermen, alternative energy...I can go on and on.  Trump took credit for Obama's economy and is now trying to take the USA backwards.  As for me, I'm better off than most.  I'm in the US stock market, have income from the USA, income in Thailand...no need to shed a tear for me.  But Trump is not doing what's best for America in the long term.   

No more than your propensity to blame trump for your situation. Yet you moan about the dollar which should be bigly off set by your stocks. 

[MBFC1960]

On 6/21/2019 at 1:17 PM, Berkshire said:

Yeah, this is another gift from Trump to US expats in Thailand.  The US economy had been churning along with the feds poised to raise rates, which would have boosted the dollar.  But the economic uncertainty, largely from Trump tariffs and the looming China trade war, has derailed that.  Not to mention the Iran crisis--another Trump gift--which is sure to raise oil prices and create more uncertainty.  Thanks Trump.     

What did you expect from the guy who declared Bankrupcy 3 times? Or it was more... anyway i couldnt see another candidate better for US also... the other thing is i can agree with the OP who said that Thailand have big issue with debt and when unemployment rises (i guess they will blame us foreigners for illegal working) and when Chinese will start to tighten the screw and come collect debt from submarines and other like high tech trains... than bubble will burst i can see Chinese will soon became the privileged foreignerd who can own the land etc... i see that coming. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by MBFC1960

[LomSak27]

On 6/21/2019 at 7:55 AM, Beggar said:

I am not so sure. I remember when the USD was declining from above 50 to 46 Baht the Central Bank here in Thailand said the Baht will not go up further. Now the USD is below 31. Whenever the Central Bank made such a statement the Baht went up further. Perhaps one day Thais retire in western countries because they are so cheap.... 

So you were living here 97/98, meltdown and immediate post economic collapse. Must have been exciting times ...   but how does that apply to the current situation? 

[Stygge]

It's a myth that CB's have control of economies. If they did have control then there will be no recessions. Forget if's and but's. USD is on a precipice. That's why gold is soaring. 

As long as the Thai elite can keep the wages low export won't suffer much and import will be cheap. And they can. Thailand is not a democracy.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[NanLaew]

On 6/21/2019 at 3:43 AM, webfact said:

... Bank of Thailand or BOT’s assistant governor financial markets operation group Vachira Arromdee said that BOT has monitor baht strong within two weeks that is following the both internal and external factor that impact to baht currency strong when compare with others currency in this regional.

 

However, if baht still strong higher than others currency by did not relate with the country’s economy based and may be impact with the real economy and the country’s industry, the BOT will restrict with all of financial transaction that has signed to use Thailand to be short-term money supply to speculate on the baht, she said. ...

With special thanks to google translate maybe?

[Senechal]

This article was terribly written. 

[Beggar]

2 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

So you were living here 97/98, meltdown and immediate post economic collapse. Must have been exciting times ...   but how does that apply to the current situation? 

The Central Bank always tries to calm down the situation. And so I have learned not to listen anymore to statements like they will watch, or the currency will not fall or rise anymore further and whatever. 

 

Yes, the crisis was an interesting time. Interest rates were very high and the Baht very cheap. I regret that I didn't buy more Baht at this time... But at the same time with the cheap Baht the mass tourism started. This "motivated" me to leave my then lost paradise Koh Samui and so I moved to Patong until the same game started there too and so I moved again... and again. 

[oxysong]

2 hours ago, Stygge said:

As long as the Thai elite can keep the wages low export won't suffer much and import will be cheap. And they can. Thailand is not a democracy.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

..but they do.   BoT  just keeps on issuing high interest bonds,to pay for borrowings made earlier,the country is in a bigger mess than it can imagine.  wages are kept low by heavy military/police commitment "exports wont suffer much"...but they are suffering,projections now down from 8%  to 1% next year

 

for a bit more froth One of the leading English language newspapers in thailand seems to be leading a campaign for civil unrest,just yesterday stating "implosion" more than likely to happen in next few months between political parties,prayut railroaded out     The country basically is flat broke,only 3 submarines keeping it afloat (or sunk)

Edited June 23, 2019 by oxysong

[Stygge]

But maybe export down a bit for other reason than the strong bath. Mr Trump and Mr Xi and a weakening world economy might have something to do with it.

..but they do.   BoT  just keeps on issuing high interest bonds,to pay for borrowings made earlier,the country is in a bigger mess than it can imagine.  wages are kept low by heavy military/police commitment "exports wont suffer much"...but they are suffering,projections now down from 8%  to 1% next year
 
for a bit more froth One of the leading English language newspapers in thailand seems to be leading a campaign for civil unrest,just yesterday stating "implosion" more than likely to happen in next few months between political parties,prayut railroaded out     The country basically is flat broke,only 3 submarines keeping it afloat (or sunk)

Sent from my SM-N960F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[oxysong]

13 minutes ago, Stygge said:

But maybe export down a bit for other reason than the strong bath. Mr Trump and Mr Xi and a weakening world economy might have something to do with it.

 

Sent from my SM-N960F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

nothing to do with trade disputes,...thailand were issuing high interest rate bonds for 3 years or so,well before present situation    Prayut/ junta could not get its way without a strong currency,and he got it through the back door..borrowing

[oxysong]

2 hours ago, NanLaew said:

With special thanks to google translate maybe?

What she really meant was the BoT are doing away with short term bonds

[Cryingdick]

Just consider the lower dollar as a remedy in regards to  the repugnant problem of income inequality. 

[marcusarelus]

29 minutes ago, RobboR said:

It's not doing well for a 3rd world country. 

It should be performing at 6-10 % GDP for years to build reserves.

They have a few poxy quid in Foreign reserves to stabilise/manipulate their currency and billions off book owed to the Chinese.

Without the Chinese as proxy backers the place would be sinking quicker than a cheap house in Bangkok

The only difference with Thailand compared to say Western Countries is Zero social security costs.

All western countries would be rich without all those huge liabilities on a daily weekly monthly basis

It is not a third world country.  https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/third_world.htm

 

China debt is your fantasy.  Link if I'm in error.

 

Thailand is not manipulating currency if they could it would be lower not higher.  The dollar and pound are sinking not the Baht rising.  

[oxysong]

38 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

It is not a third world country.  https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/third_world.htm

 

China debt is your fantasy.  Link if I'm in error.

 

Thailand is not manipulating currency if they could it would be lower not higher.  The dollar and pound are sinking not the Baht rising.  

So by your reckoning (and of course Wiki,that you refer from ,all of the time),not the fact you do not know anything about anything,just a matter of  learning how to turn pages in Wiki,..but never mind,...you mention two currencies,but other currencies are sinking,how is this?  what does your page turning in Wiki say about that?

   The Baht is rising because of manipulation,Junta Prayut need a strong Baht, Thai population far from it, reason car/house loans are in orbit,but for how long?   get Wiki out  quick quick

 

"The Bank of Thailand is set to tighten foreign exchange monitoring to prevent short-term baht speculation after the local currency surged to its highest level in more than six years on Thursday.

The central bank will take a stricter approach in tracking transactions suspected of parking short-term money in the country for speculative purposes, said Vachira Arromdee, assistant governor overseeing financial markets operations.

Speculating in the baht for short-term gain is undesirable behaviour, Ms Vachira said.

The baht on Thursday rallied past the 31-mark to its strongest level against the US dollar in more than six years. Thailand's currency unit traded at 30.95, up from the previous day's 31.19.

The baht has emerged as the best-performing currency in Asia, gaining 4.8% year-to-date against the dollar. The Japanese yen is second with a 1.8% rise.

"If the baht continues to gain at a higher and faster pace than currencies of trade competitors, the trend does not seem to be in line with Thailand's economic fundamentals and this would deal a blow to the real sector and operators' adaptability, Ms Vachira said.

The private sector is advised to regularly hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, she said, and it's a good time for borrowers to pay debts denominated in foreign currencies."

 

if this is not manipulation ,what is?   Wot does Wiki say to that?  and this is private manipulation,never mind private banking manipulation or even BoT manipulation,of course with junta helpings. Not the fact  exports are nosediving even as I type,its currency manipulation....come on Wiki   have a say  LOL

Edited June 23, 2019 by oxysong

[spidermike007]

5 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Yes, the Thai economy seems to be doing very well recently.

 

It's not just the dollar and the pound that are falling against the baht, though:

 

(copy and pasted from another thread, world's 10 most traded currencies)

 

Since December 1st 2018:

 

USD fell 5.28% against the THB
EUR fell 6.32% against the THB
JPY fell 0.89% against the THB
GBP fell 6.73% against the THB
AUD fell 10.9% against the THB
CAD fell 5.84% against the THB
CHF fell 5.46% against the THB
CNY fell 4.5% against the THB
SEK fell 9.49% against the THB
NZD fell 10.06% against the THB

 

Going by that, the strength of the Thai baht seems to be the main reason for the pound and the dollar sliding.

That is true. The dollar seems to be holding it's own against most major currencies, at this time. The baht is just appreciating in a big way. Some say it is due to manufacturing, and cash inflows from investments. Who knows? It does seem out of proportion, considering all of the issues with tourism here, and the extreme incompetence of the administration. 

[oxysong]

1 hour ago, oxysong said:

So by your reckoning (and of course Wiki,that you refer from ,all of the time),not the fact you do not know anything about anything,just a matter of  learning how to turn pages in Wiki,..but never mind,...you mention two currencies,but other currencies are sinking,how is this?  what does your page turning in Wiki say about that?

   The Baht is rising because of manipulation,Junta Prayut need a strong Baht, Thai population far from it, reason car/house loans are in orbit,but for how long?   get Wiki out  quick quick

 

"The Bank of Thailand is set to tighten foreign exchange monitoring to prevent short-term baht speculation after the local currency surged to its highest level in more than six years on Thursday.

The central bank will take a stricter approach in tracking transactions suspected of parking short-term money in the country for speculative purposes, said Vachira Arromdee, assistant governor overseeing financial markets operations.

Speculating in the baht for short-term gain is undesirable behaviour, Ms Vachira said.

The baht on Thursday rallied past the 31-mark to its strongest level against the US dollar in more than six years. Thailand's currency unit traded at 30.95, up from the previous day's 31.19.

The baht has emerged as the best-performing currency in Asia, gaining 4.8% year-to-date against the dollar. The Japanese yen is second with a 1.8% rise.

"If the baht continues to gain at a higher and faster pace than currencies of trade competitors, the trend does not seem to be in line with Thailand's economic fundamentals and this would deal a blow to the real sector and operators' adaptability, Ms Vachira said.

The private sector is advised to regularly hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, she said, and it's a good time for borrowers to pay debts denominated in foreign currencies."

 

if this is not manipulation ,what is?   Wot does Wiki say to that?  and this is private manipulation,never mind private banking manipulation or even BoT manipulation,of course with junta helpings. Not the fact  exports are nosediving even as I type,its currency manipulation....come on Wiki   have a say  LOL

What Ms Vichira is saying I presume is the s hit is about to hit the fan,good time to unpack the bags maybe,happy times ahead

[jimmyyy]

I don't really understand these markets, but it would seem to me with the baht so strong exports would suffer.  Or am I just not understanding it?  Would that not make Thailand loose money and then devalue the baht?

[morrobay]

6 hours ago, oxysong said:

..but they do.   BoT  just keeps on issuing high interest bonds,to pay for borrowings made earlier,the country is in a bigger mess than it can imagine.  wages are kept low by heavy military/police commitment "exports wont suffer much"...but they are suffering,projections now down from 8%  to 1% next year

 

for a bit more froth One of the leading English language newspapers in thailand seems to be leading a campaign for civil unrest,just yesterday stating "implosion" more than likely to happen in next few months between political parties,prayut railroaded out     The country basically is flat broke,only 3 submarines keeping it afloat (or sunk)

What about Thailand's $200 + Billions in foreign reserves , if the country is broke I wish I had their problems. 

[oxysong]

38 minutes ago, jimmyyy said:

I don't really understand these markets, but it would seem to me with the baht so strong exports would suffer.  Or am I just not understanding it?  Would that not make Thailand loose money and then devalue the baht?

Exports mean nothing,keep stoking the fire,pump the money in.

 

 (Above) Thought it was 175 ish foreign reserve

Edited June 23, 2019 by oxysong

[RickTik]

On 6/20/2019 at 5:16 PM, AlexRich said:

Can't help thinking that the real Thai economy will be taking a hit in the near future, the rising Baht is a double-edged sword.

Chinese investment secures the future of Thailand.

In the U.S., understand the real reason for the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rates low:

They want to squeeze the personal savings out of the middle class.

How does that affect expats in Thailand?

Their buying power and economic sustainability is weakened.

End result for expats in Thailand?

Thailand/Asia not as attractive for farang retirement like before.

Is that what the governments want?

Yes it is. 

[tropo]

On 6/21/2019 at 4:50 AM, Puchaiyank said:

30.865 as I write this morning...yet another negative for US expats...

Won't we get a reduction in the price of imported food? 

 

note: I am joking

[nkg]

4 hours ago, jimmyyy said:

I don't really understand these markets, but it would seem to me with the baht so strong exports would suffer.  Or am I just not understanding it?  Would that not make Thailand loose money and then devalue the baht?

 

Even with the strong baht, exports are still doing well.

 

Thailand had a current account surplus of 7.5% of GDP for 2018 - and exports continue to outstrip imports in 2019. The economy is set to grow 4% in 2019, Thailand has $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and foreign capital is steadily flowing into Thailand, with 1 trillion baht of Thai government bonds held by foreign investors.

 

With such a strong economic position, Thailand doesn't need to take action to lower the value of the baht right now. Unfortunately for foreign retirees, the strong baht means that Thailand is becoming a more expensive place to live.

[tropo]

Here's a visual representation from an MT4 chart. There's nothing pleasant about this drop, but it depends a lot on when one arrived as to how bad the situation is. There is a 2 year period where the baht was weaker than it had been over the last 10 years, so it distorts the size of the drop somewhat.

 

As an Australian I'm doing it much harder as over the same period we saw a range from over 30 baht to under 22, or 9.4 baht max drop (5 years). We went from parity with the USD to its current 69 cents.

[oxysong]

1 hour ago, nkg said:

 

Even with the strong baht, exports are still doing well.

 

Thailand had a current account surplus of 7.5% of GDP for 2018 - and exports continue to outstrip imports in 2019. The economy is set to grow 4% in 2019, Thailand has $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and foreign capital is steadily flowing into Thailand, with 1 trillion baht of Thai government bonds held by foreign investors.

 

With such a strong economic position, Thailand doesn't need to take action to lower the value of the baht right now. Unfortunately for foreign retirees, the strong baht means that Thailand is becoming a more expensive place to live.

Depends which chart you choose    Was 3%  for next year,adjusted down to 1%. Those figures mean nothing when general unrest occurs,and again which publication read  that is not far off

[nkg]

31 minutes ago, oxysong said:

Depends which chart you choose    Was 3%  for next year,adjusted down to 1%. Those figures mean nothing when general unrest occurs,and again which publication read  that is not far off

 

I think the 1% refers to quarterly growth, not annual growth.

 

Reuters (Nomura) goes as low as 2.7%, with a median prediction of 3% growth based on 17 different forecasts.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-gdp/thai-first-quarter-gdp-growth-year-on-year-seen-at-lowest-in-nearly-four-years-as-exports-sag-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1SN0QL

 

When you compare it to growth in other countries like US (2.3%) Germany (2.2%) Japan (1.7%), growth somewhere around 3% isn't too bad.

 

Interest rates are sat at 1.75%, so Thailand has room to make cuts to interest rates should growth continue to slow.

[oxysong]

37 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

I think the 1% refers to quarterly growth, not annual growth.

 

Reuters (Nomura) goes as low as 2.7%, with a median prediction of 3% growth based on 17 different forecasts.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-gdp/thai-first-quarter-gdp-growth-year-on-year-seen-at-lowest-in-nearly-four-years-as-exports-sag-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1SN0QL

 

When you compare it to growth in other countries like US (2.3%) Germany (2.2%) Japan (1.7%), growth somewhere around 3% isn't too bad.

 

Interest rates are sat at 1.75%, so Thailand has room to make cuts to interest rates should growth continue to slow.

Maybe ,maybe not ,but when Bank of Thailand puts its oar in with ominous warning,think its more than just a dire warning of what lies ahead....It was 1% annual growth of exports next year

[HuskerDo]

On 6/21/2019 at 2:17 AM, Berkshire said:

Yeah, this is another gift from Trump to US expats in Thailand.  The US economy had been churning along with the feds poised to raise rates, which would have boosted the dollar.  But the economic uncertainty, largely from Trump tariffs and the looming China trade war, has derailed that.  Not to mention the Iran crisis--another Trump gift--which is sure to raise oil prices and create more uncertainty.  Thanks Trump.     

I'm quite sure Trump isn't concerned about the Americans who have "left" the US but rather the ones who decided to stay. Lower rates benefit those in the US (other than those relying on interest income). Why should he be more concerned with the "thousands" who have left the US instead of the "hundreds of millions" that still live there? Don't blame Trump. You could have moved more money to Thailand years ago and enjoyed the appreciation. Then again it's easier to run your life the way you want and blame others when things go sour. 

[nkg]

1 hour ago, oxysong said:

Maybe ,maybe not ,but when Bank of Thailand puts its oar in with ominous warning,think its more than just a dire warning of what lies ahead....It was 1% annual growth of exports next year

 

Oh I see - you were referring to export growth, not economic growth.

 

I would agree that it doesn't make any sense for Thailand to let the baht go any higher. Still, a strong currency is a nice problem to have. Lowering interest rates or issuing new bonds would cause the baht to drop, but it would also stimulate further economic growth, as well as helping exports.

 

Of course, this being Thailand, expect the unexpected :)

[observer90210]

On 6/22/2019 at 7:54 PM, HuskerDo said:

OH yes! CNN and Elizabeth Warren of all people said it was going to happen so it MUST be true. I won't even bother to read the babble.  Let me know when hell has frozen over.

you should not get so worked up..chill down pal, this is just a forum and nobody claimed it was going to happen, just rumours and since you said in posts above you never heard of the rumour, I humbly quoted where the talk was going about...relax!

[oxysong]

8 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Oh I see - you were referring to export growth, not economic growth.

 

I would agree that it doesn't make any sense for Thailand to let the baht go any higher. Still, a strong currency is a nice problem to have. Lowering interest rates or issuing new bonds would cause the baht to drop, but it would also stimulate further economic growth, as well as helping exports.

 

Of course, this being Thailand, expect the unexpected ????

Events are moving too fast to put any emphasis on any past events. There is no growth left in Thailand,wages too high,unless heavily automated industry,rice way way overpriced for export,everything and everybody in surrounding countries overtaking Thailand,and its prayut and his bunch of idiot followers who have caused the mess.  China as paymaster to thailand? I think not,too much on its plate.  prayut will be lynched in a few months time