mumbu Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 For those who hope to see the crash of Thai baht: do not hold your breath. As I said in my previous post on this thread I do agree with the assessment that economic situation in Thailand rapidly deteriorating after the coup. However, the crucial factor in baht moves are external conditions. Baht appreciation should be considered within the context of appreciation of currencies of neighboring countries and especially China. Despite the fact that excellent fundamentals existed in Thailand for several years, baht appreciation has not started until rembini started moving higher. There is a good chance that China will accelerate the appreciation of rembini (which is clearly in her own interests) and then simply forget about depreciation of Thai baht (note that Thai neighbors and China are, in fact, its major competitors on export markets). I strongly disagree that so-called "speculators" play any significant role in baht moves. Indeed, if this were the case, we would have seen a volatility in the currency in the wake of events like the coup. We saw nothing at all. Unless very severe political crisis in Thailand ,(which is, of course, cannot be excluded) baht is going to stay strong. For those who retired (or plan to retire) in Thailand based on fixed income in US dollars or UK pounds, you simply need to understand that the world is getting more complex and you need to diversify your portfolio to have a steady income in several currencies or other assets which will continue to hold its value despite US dollar (and UK pound somewhat later) depreciation (e.g. gold is a good way to diversify). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chlear909 Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 so if i have alot of bhat saved from teaching endless english classes and am about to go back to Ny usa ,,,should i transfer to us$ now? or later? ,got about 100000 saved unbelievably livin like hermit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jai Dee Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 Strengthening of the baht affects textile export Director of the Thailand Textile Institute (THTI) indicates that the strengthening of the baht has still obstructed this year’s export, while calling for the government to support research on textile and develop the country’s competitiveness in the global textile industry. THTI Director Virat Tandechanurat (วิรัตน์ ตันเดชานุรัตน์) reveals that if the baht stays below 35 baht per US dollar, this year’s textile export will see no growth. He also says some exporters have denied new textile orders as afraid of the strengthening of the baht. Mr Virat suggests that to stimulate the textile export, Thailand has to speed up clarifying policies on the baht currency and the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Some foreign countries have completed their FTAs with Thailand’s textile trading partners, damaging Thailand’s textile export opportunity. Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 19 March 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumbu Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 (edited) so if i have alot of bhat saved from teaching endless english classes and am about to go back to Ny usa ,,,should i transfer to us$ now? or later? ,got about 100000 saved unbelievably livin like hermit. Well, it is about 3000 US. No matter what you will do, you are not going to become a millionaire. You may try to get off-shore exchange rate but it is not easy. Look, e.g. at the website of HSBC in HK. This is one of the banks which allows savings accounts in Thai baht. If you look at the exhange rate table on the same webpage, they have the spread roughly equal the difference between off shore and onshore exchange rates, i.e. if you want to exchange, say, US dollars to Thai baht in this bank, they will use offshore exchange rate. If you want to exchange Thai baht to US dollar, they will give you onshore exchange rate. By the way, even Tarisa said that she does not mind appreciation of the baht if it is at the same rate as appreciation of Thai neigbors currencies. One thing I would never do myself (and would not advise anybody) is to rush huge amounts of your home currency (even if it is US dollar) to your Thai baht denominated account in Thailand. Unfortunately, the regulations in Thailand are changing in unpredictable manner and you may just get stuck with (say) poorely convertible baht in Thailand. Edited March 19, 2007 by mumbu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glaitong Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 Come on Baht 30 to the US dollar. Next week okay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hampstead Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 (edited) The BOT should look to slam and even fine the large exporters, who have been exchanging millions of dollars from their thai dollar accounts back into thai baht in the thai banking system over the last 2 weeks, therefore sending the baht-dollar rate to new highs. After all the BOT looked to protect these guys with the 30% rule and now they seem intent on trying to influence the BOT of keeping the rule in place by making sure the baht-dollar rate strengthens even further. Edited March 19, 2007 by Hampstead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man River Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 Strengthening of the baht affects textile exportDirector of the Thailand Textile Institute (THTI) indicates that the strengthening of the baht has still obstructed this year’s export, while calling for the government to support research on textile and develop the country’s competitiveness in the global textile industry. Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 19 March 2007 Actually, this industry began losing out when Thailand's unskilled labor costs exceeded that of other regional competing countries (notably China and Viet Nam). Therefore, to compete the textile industry needs a much weaker THB/USD rate (more like 38 than 35) and it isn't going to see it soon. The sun is setting fast on this industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 Come on Baht 30 to the US dollar. Next week okay! could you translate that in an language i comprehend? take your pick of french, german, italian, spanish, portuguese, arabic, urdu, hindustani or tiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumbu Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 (edited) I am glad to say that in yesterday's interview to CNBC ASIA Malaysian prime minister Badawi expressed views identical to mine regarding the appreciation of Malaysian ringit. To the journalist question whether he is concerned about ringit appreciation, the answer was no. He said that he would like to see further appreciation of ringit which reflects the progress of Malaysian economy. When (somewhat astounded) journalist asked to what level ringit should appreciate, Badawi responded that it should be decided by markets. He added that after decoupling ringit and US dollar, ringit steadily appreciated without signs of volatility. This indicates that SPECULATORS PLAY NO ROLE IN RINGITS APPRECIATION (compare with what I said in this thread about the baht). I wish Thailand had currently leaders as smart as Badawi. Ringit was linked to US dollar since 1997 crisis (and was, in fact, not convertible). It was decoupled from US dollar and allowed to free float immediately after China ceased its own coupling of rembini with US dollar. Since then ringit appreciated approximately 6.5 percent versus US dollar. Of course, baht appreciated much more. Another difference is that ringit is not allowed to be traded on offshore markets. What Badawi understans (and what Tarisa and vast majority of posters on this message board do not) is that HE CAN DO NOTHING TO STOP RINGIT APPRECIATION WITHOUT HURTING HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HIS OWN PEOPLE. Edited March 21, 2007 by mumbu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquess Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 (edited) I am glad to say that in yesterday's interview to CNBC ASIA Malaysian prime minister Badawi expressed views identical to mine regarding the appreciation of Malaysian ringit. To the journalist question whether he is concerned about ringit appreciation, the answer was no. He said that he would like to see further appreciation of ringit which reflects the progress of Malaysian economy. When (somewhat astounded) journalist asked to what level ringit should appreciate, Badawi responded that it should be decided by markets. He added that after decoupling ringit and US dollar, ringit steadily appreciated without signs of volatility. This indicates that SPECULATORS PLAY NO ROLE IN RINGITS APPRECIATION(compare with what I said in this thread about the baht). I wish Thailand had currently leaders as smart as Badawi. Ringit was linked to US dollar since 1997 crisis (and was, in fact, not convertible). It was decoupled from US dollar and allowed to free float immediately after China ceased its own coupling of rembini with US dollar. Since then ringit appreciated approximately 6.5 percent versus US dollar. Of course, baht appreciated much more. Another difference is that ringit is not allowed to be traded on offshore markets. What Badawi understans (and what Tarisa and vast majority of posters on this message board do not) is that HE CAN DO NOTHING TO STOP RINGIT APPRECIATION WITHOUT HURTING HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HIS OWN PEOPLE. OK GUY'S,,,,WHERE'S THE GOOD NEWS ??? I NEED THAT F%&KING BAHT TO GO DOWN BEFORE I TRANSFER THE NEXT DOWNPAYMENT..... DO SOMETHING !!!!! OK OK BLAME THE CHINESE, ARABS, TURKS.......I DONT CARE, JUST DO SOMETHING ! YES YOU'RE RIGHT....ITS ALL ABOUT ME......SO WHAT ?? JUST DO SOMETHING...................please (Thai Banks) seem to be offering more for foreign currency than the market rate, for example I have just walked past the bank and saw them offering 67 Baht for 1 pound, and 34.6 Bhat for a US Dollar, when the real rate is 33 for the dollar and 64 for the pound. Edited March 21, 2007 by marquess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 "I don't have a clue whats the Baht will do" welcome to an exclusive club! members = only you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 "(Thai Banks) seem to be offering more for foreign currency than the market rate, for example I have just walked bast the bank and saw them offering 67 Baht for 1 pound, and 34.6 Bhat for a US Dollar, when the real rate is 33 for the dollar and 64 for the pound." please define "market rate" and "real rate". i am always eager to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquess Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 "(Thai Banks) seem to be offering more for foreign currency than the market rate, for example I have just walked bast the bank and saw them offering 67 Baht for 1 pound, and 34.6 Bhat for a US Dollar, when the real rate is 33 for the dollar and 64 for the pound."please define "market rate" and "real rate". i am always eager to learn. Thai Baht 32.71000 (Market Data BBC) 0.36000 1.10 39.18000 32.00000 Thai Banks 34.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkexplorer Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 Without going through the whole thread to possibly find it, could someone give me a www link to an onshore USD - Baht exchange rate over the last 2 years. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man River Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 Without going through the whole thread to possibly find it, could someone give me a www link to an onshore USD - Baht exchange rate over the last 2 years. Thanks. This is the link for the Bank of Thailand. http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/.../exchange_e.asp If for some reason you can't access this link, go to www.bot.or.th and then go to exchange rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkexplorer Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 Thanks OMR. Clicked the link and got there but somehow after downloading the history and opening in excel, all the numbers were listed as #### codes. I'm using mac by the way. Another link anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquess Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 Thanks OMR.Clicked the link and got there but somehow after downloading the history and opening in excel, all the numbers were listed as #### codes. I'm using mac by the way. Another link anyone. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkexplorer Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 That link looks like offshore rates. I think I found it in the yahoo finance exchange rate. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 the "rate" quoted offshore is not "real" but irrelevant. presently nobody who possesses ½ an ounce of brains will buy THB more expensive at offshore rates and then transfers them to Thailand. i admit of course... masochists do exist on this planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brutiniero Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 If you get a #### in Excel you column space is to narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astral Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 66.72 to the GB pound at Krung Thai 64.6 overseas. Oanda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heng Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 (edited) the "rate" quoted offshore is not "real" but irrelevant. presently nobody who possesses ½ an ounce of brains will buy THB more expensive at offshore rates and then transfers them to Thailand. It's certainly relevant to anyone making atm withdrawals from overseas accounts. About 60% of my income enters the LOS that way (the rest is local origin), and as of this week, it's entering at the higher 34's, closer to the offshore rate than onshore rate. edit: given, it'll become irrelevant real quick when they scrap the two rate system. Edited March 21, 2007 by Heng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted March 21, 2007 Share Posted March 21, 2007 I am glad to say that in yesterday's interview to CNBC ASIA Malaysian prime minister Badawi expressed views identical to mine regarding the appreciation of Malaysian ringit. To the journalist question whether he is concerned about ringit appreciation, the answer was no. He said that he would like to see further appreciation of ringit which reflects the progress of Malaysian economy. When (somewhat astounded) journalist asked to what level ringit should appreciate, Badawi responded that it should be decided by markets. He added that after decoupling ringit and US dollar, ringit steadily appreciated without signs of volatility. This indicates that SPECULATORS PLAY NO ROLE IN RINGITS APPRECIATION(compare with what I said in this thread about the baht). I wish Thailand had currently leaders as smart as Badawi. Ringit was linked to US dollar since 1997 crisis (and was, in fact, not convertible). It was decoupled from US dollar and allowed to free float immediately after China ceased its own coupling of rembini with US dollar. Since then ringit appreciated approximately 6.5 percent versus US dollar. Of course, baht appreciated much more. Another difference is that ringit is not allowed to be traded on offshore markets. What Badawi understans (and what Tarisa and vast majority of posters on this message board do not) is that HE CAN DO NOTHING TO STOP RINGIT APPRECIATION WITHOUT HURTING HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HIS OWN PEOPLE. How could they be identical to yours when we have been discussing the Thai Baht here and not the ringit? Perhaps you need to go to Maylasia VISA.com and express your views. The Thai baht has increased in value by a factor of three compared to the ringit, and the ringits increase is indeed due to the decoupling with the US dollar. The Mayalsian economy is growing and the Thai economy is in a state of decline, therefore any comparison between the two is rather a moot point. The fact is if the TB were to continue to increase in value vs. other currencies as you seem to wish, it would have absolutly devestating effects on the Thai economy. As has been stated in previous posts, agriculture , tourisim and exports are the biggest chunk of thai GDP and if the TB continues to strenghten as you think then those segments of the Thai economy (which are already hurting) would be devestated, that is why the BOT put in the capital controls in the first place and why they are trying to hold the baht above the mid 30's until the speculation in the Thai makets winds down. It is truely sad that you have such a death wish for the Thai economy, but then again as I stated before you more than likely have a vested interest in the TB increasing in value so that you can line your own pockets. When the TB does correct this summer or later this year, one can only hope that you are in a very concentrated baht position at the time of the reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquess Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 Thai Baht 31.97500 0.27000 0.84 39.18000 31.70000 10.13 22.3.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flysiam Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 Thai Baht 31.97500 0.27000 0.84 39.18000 31.70000 10.13 22.3.07 And this means what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 It's certainly relevant to anyone making atm withdrawals from overseas accounts. About 60% of my income enters the LOS that way.. **** agreed! but why not transferring once in a while instead of using an ATM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquess Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 Thai Baht 31.97500 0.27000 0.84 39.18000 31.70000 10.13 22.3.07 And this means what? The current price of Baht, as opposed to the 34.7 that is being shown in Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heng Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 (edited) It's certainly relevant to anyone making atm withdrawals from overseas accounts. About 60% of my income enters the LOS that way..**** agreed! but why not transferring once in a while instead of using an ATM? I like the whirring sound that the atm makes. brrrrrrrrrrrrr chuk chuk.... beep beep beep beep.... Seriously though I do, but not all of my banks offer online swift transfers. If I happen to be abroad and need to direct funds to the LOS, I most certainly swift. Edited March 22, 2007 by Heng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jai Dee Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 BOT injects 1 trillion baht to retain stability of Baht currency Deputy Finance Minister, Sommai Pasee (สมหมาย ภาษี), said that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) spent 1 trillion baht to maintain the stability of Baht currency, while requesting exporters not to blame BOT as the state currency watchdog is trying its best to resolve the strong baht crisis. Mr. Sommai says the current figures are calculated from international reserve funds and the increasing value of trading. Mr. Sommi expresses his beliefs that the matter will not create negative effects to the national economic situation. Following the slowdown of the economy, he says only 30 percent of it is caused by Thailand’s economy, while the remaining percent of the slowdown is contributed by other sections. Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 March 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkexplorer Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 If you get a #### in Excel you column space is to narrow. Duh! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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