Exports tipped to shrink 1% this year

[snoop1130]

Exports tipped to shrink 1% this year

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT

THE NATION

 

Presenting the revised forecasts are, from left, Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand; Preedee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, and Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.

 

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) on Wednesday forecast that exports this year will contract 1 per cent from the previous year.

 

The committee had earlier this year projected export growth of 3 to 5 per cent for 2019.

 

It reduced its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.9 per cent, down from the 3 per cent it estimated earlier this year. 

 

 

The trade war between the US and China continues to be a key factor damaging exporters, particular for those in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, the committee said. 

 

The strong baht, which has appreciated by 5.7 per cent against the US dollar since January, is another key factor causing exports to drop. The JSCCIB predicts the currency will trade at around 32 to the dollar by the end of the year.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372722

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand  2019-07-10

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

[quandow]

Won't someone get fired for telling this inconvenient truth?

[NCC1701A]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

The JSCCIB predicts the currency will trade at around 32 to the dollar by the end of the year.

so the baht will be going down versus the dollar. good news.

Edited July 10, 2019 by NCC1701A

[Matzzon]

No problem! Just keep that overvalued baht, and it will sink 2-3% next year. You´re on the right track, guys!

Edited July 10, 2019 by Matzzon

[Matzzon]

18 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

so the baht will be going down versus the dollar. good news.

Yep, I also thought that 6 years ago! 

[Brickbat]

Smart economies devalue their currency to be more competitive. These rich guys must have something up their sleeve. Like exporting their wealth . Getting a lot more $ and £ for this baht . 

 

[phkauf]

This is incredible. In just six months time, the forecast goes from 3 to 5% growth to a 1% decrease in exports. This is a massive miss in forecasting, which just tells me they have no idea what they are doing. And now they forecast that GDP growth will be 2.9% down from their forecast of 3%- how could that even be possible given their forecasted drop in exports? More likely GDP will be less than 2%.

BoT propping up the Baht with high interest rates will have some pretty nasty consequences soon. They will have to lower rates to stimulate the economy and the hot money flooding in to capture the high rates will leave and the Baht will fall hard (not crash).

[RichardColeman]

Thailand economy seems to be like the fat kid blowing a hubba-bubba - you know it's coming, and watching it explode on his face will be worth the wait if you can spare the time

[Srikcir]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The committee had earlier this year projected export growth of 3 to 5 per cent for 2019.

 

It reduced its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.9 per cent, down from the 3 per cent it estimated earlier this year. 

Earlier this year?!?

Try only four months ago.

Here's the TV published sequence:

• The National Economic and Social Development Board has predicted that export growth will slow this year to a mere 4.6 per cent, down from a robust 7.2 per cent in 2018.  2019-01-08
• The government lowered its 2019 export growth outlook to 4.1 percent from 4.6 percent.2019-02-18
• National Economic and Social Development Council predicts exports to grow at the modest rate of 4.1% in 2019.  2019-02-19
• The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year.  2019-02-22
• The JSCCIB scaled back its forecast for export growth in 2019, from a range of 5 to 7 per cent stated in December to 3 to 5 per cent.  2019-04-04 

It looks like the JSCCIB waited as long as possible before committing itself to a 2019 forecast.

Personally, I predict export growth at 2-2.5% for 2019 if BOT continues to support a "hot" baht.

[worgeordie]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

It reduced its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.9 per cent, down from the 3 per cent it estimated earlier this year.

Exports tipped to shrink 1% this year....3%-2.9% is not 1%

so i think its safe to say don't trust their figures,i predict 

it will be more

regards worgeordie

Edited July 11, 2019 by worgeordie
correction

[Isaan sailor]

And with BoT maintaining high interest rates—and best buddy China adding in the hot money inflows...what could possibly go wrong?