Thai exports could fall as much as 3.1% this year: economists

[webfact]

Thai exports could fall as much as 3.1% this year: economists

By Somluck Srimalee
The Nation

 

Photo by: The Nation

 

Thailand’s exports will drop by up to 3.1 per cent this year, economists forecast on Monday, after June figures fell on the same period last year amid a strengthening baht.

 

After the Commerce Ministry reported a 2.1 per cent fall in June, the SCB Economic Intelligence Centre projected the country’s exports will drop this year by between 1.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent.

 

The research centre said exports in the second half would be hit further if the baht remained strong and the US-China trade war deepened.

 

“Although the US-China trade meeting between after the G20 summit [in Japan last month] was a positive sign, we have to wait for the outcome because both countries are still negotiating for a deal. This ongoing process is still impacting the global economy and Thailand’s export value,” the EIC said.

 

The ongoing uncertainty comes after Thailand’s exports dropped 4.4 per cent in the first half of the year, leading to the EIC forecast of a 1.6-3.1 per cent drop this year. 

 

The EIC maintained its forecast of Thailand’s  economy growth at 3.1 per cent in this year, driven by domestic consumption and government infrastructure and stimulus spending.

 

Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Centre forecast Thai exports to recover in the second half, to remain at the same level as last year, amid positive outcomes in the trade war.

 

However, if the baht remains strong, Thailand would be further impacted by export competition in the global market, the centre said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30373418

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-07-23

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[RotBenz8888]

13 minutes ago, webfact said:

However, if the baht remains strong, Thailand would be further impacted by export competition in the global market, the centre said.

 

 Everyone knows what ultimately has to be done,however there seems to be some influential people having an opposite view. Pop the popcorn, something spectacular is about to happen. Tom yam kung 2.0?

[Isaan sailor]

We all know it’s the damned high Baht that’s taking the Thai economy down.  Time for BoT to step up and swear off the hot money foreign bond sale inflows.  We’ll how they do later this month...

[PhonThong]

1997?

[owenm]

Didn't I read in the last week that Thai exports were down 5.9% Jan to June this year? I couldn't find the TV link to the article.. 

[Roy Baht]

As true then as now: In times of crisis, measures are launched promptly to rescue investors. "It explains the saying that the (businesses) fall on the cushion while the workers are the ones getting hurt"

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1279751/1997-meltdown-unheeded-lesson

[Thaidream]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

As true then as now: In times of crisis, measures are launched promptly to rescue investors. "It explains the saying that the (businesses) fall on the cushion while the workers are the ones getting hurt"

I remember the Tom Yam Kung crisis quite well as I was in Bangkok at the time.  The Bangkok traffic james almost disappeared overnight once the Government devalued the Baht.

 

It was great if you were a tourist or expat  getting your income from abroad but terrible for those in the Thai job market or the Thais themselves.

 

If I remember correctly- the Thai Government kept intervening in the currency market to keep the Baht stable and  the foreign reserves almost depleted. 

Today, the reserves are high and the Baht is rising due to hot money which is  affecting both the tourism market and exports.  The Government really needs to put on capital controls and stop the hot money so the Baht can decline in value to a realistic level around 33-34 to the dollar.   

 

If the inaction continues on the Baht the job losses will mount;  some companies will fail and eventually the Thai stock market will tumble.

 

[yellowboat]

This is welcomed news as the Baht is already too high. 

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

 

There you go

2016 wasn't last week.

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, owenm said:

Didn't I read in the last week that Thai exports were down 5.9% Jan to June this year? I couldn't find the TV link to the article.. 

Jun 21. 2019

Thai exports in May 2019 declined 5.8 per cent with the value to be Bt648 billion (US$21 billion)

For the first five months of 2019, Thai exports declined 2.7 per cent.

https://www.nationthailand.com/breakingnews/30371514