Assuming EU will not budge, Britain ramps up preparations for no-deal Brexit

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, stephenterry said:

And so the cost of Brexit goes up and up - and guess who is going to pay for it? It's certainly not the fat cat politicians who have already been offered a higher tax relief by Johnson in his leadership campaign or billionaire tax exiles funding the Tory party, or emerging markets hedge fund chairs, like Mogg.

 

No, it's the man in the street. 

Exactly as everyone could have known before the referendum

[puipuitom]

5 hours ago, nauseus said:

Good points, plus the EU/Eurozone is already showing signs of returning economic woe anyway. The last thing that the EU need now is a hard Brexit, which they could avoid easily with some goodwill instead of their hard terms.

 

In the Treaty of Lisbon, Article 50 is there as a tool for any member state to use to exit the EU. If you read it, it is simply written and lays out a fairly reasonable route to follow to a sensibly negotiated conclusion. But in reality, the EU fears a successful Brexit, which might encourage other members to follow suit and that overriding fear is the prime reason why a soft Brexit is unlikely to happen. 

"with some goodwill instead " Like... the UK gets free access to all, outside the EU, but still all benefits, zero contribution, etc.

YOU leave the club, and till now not ONE option did hold in the HoC.

Seen all reports and publicatiosn, not so many in the EU lbeleive the Brexit will NOT be a disaster.

Remind EU parliament election: in NL, the PVV, and ONLY one who insists for a Nexit, went from 4 seats to zero. ZERO ! 

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Exactly as Charles de Gaulle in 1963 had as reason to block the UK from entering the EEC

Vive de Gaulle! DNA clone him, wake him up with a snifter of cognac then replace Macron.

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, luckyluke said:

France has something similar, they consider themselves and the French language/culture as something exceptional, as it was the case a long time ago.

In France nearly all under 35 speak English. How many living in the UK speak another language, NOT being the language of their origin  ? 2% ?

https://esol.britishcouncil.org/content/learners/skills/reading/british-worst-learning-languages

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You are believing the hype about the backstop. The UK won't build a border and have said countless times. the EU with Irelands consent are using the backstop and the threat of terrorism, to keep the UK in the customs union and single market.

Well it may make sense for you to keep  the UK or even part of the UK stitched to the EU, but we had a referendum and the majority voted to leave the EU and not in name only.

Which form of "leave"? A No Deal Leave, or a super-soft "leave", or a Norway agreement or... never visit/contact any EU country anymore ? 

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, Sujo said:

GB is leaving. Why should the EU care about any deal at all.

A disaster in the UK will damage the interests of the EU too.

[david555]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

There was indeed a decision, the majority of parliament voted to leave the EU by voting for Art50.

Parliament did decide.

So … why you did not leave yet....? seems it is only a U.K. problem ...so don't blame E.U. …. no chains on your feet , just need the balls to do it..... but it seems a political blockage why you..., did not..., could not …., wish not (48%)...

[puipuitom]

56 minutes ago, transam said:

You not being a Brit makes me wonder why you are getting hot under the collar.

 

I know you lot will be losing 13% of the EU income but I think it a bit early that you are worrying when you don't even know how much extra you may have to pay...

Chill out, relax.....

Look at the import duty the EU gets when the UK leaves… It will be a LOT higher as the UK contribution now.

Lorries; 22 %, private cars: 10 %, a lot of confectionary ( Cadbury, Schweppes, Rowntree) 10-35 %.

In reality: a lot of UK companies will migrate to the EU, like BMW Mini already announced. And for many: parts are already migrated. Try to find Industrial buildings around the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, Zeebrugge... all occupied. Financial instuitutions, which already opened subsidiaries in Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Brussels...  Just search with Google and you will worry…

 

But.. a disaster at your neighbour will hit you too, so therefore.. 

[david555]

22 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Vive de Gaulle! DNA clone him, wake him up with a snifter of cognac then replace Macron.

Macron can handle U.K. …., but De Gaulle was indeed right...

[puipuitom]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Vive de Gaulle! DNA clone him, wake him up with a snifter of cognac then replace Macron.

Why ?

ONE good comment I quote does not make somebody a god... 

Edited July 29, 2019 by puipuitom

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, stephenterry said:

The mods will advise you of the correct approach. If you want to contest another's argument, then post your opinion to refute another's. 

So everyone is advising me now! You had no argument but FYI the latest UK net contribution to the EU actually rose by 2 billion year on year.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Why ?

ONE good comment does not make him a god... 

He would be if he woke up.

[geoffbezoz]

Maybe the preparations really are is that Boris is going to declare war on Europe, then surrender to benefit from European aid to rebuild the shattered industries that the Tories of Thatcher to Johnson have created ? ????

[stephenterry]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

So everyone is advising me now! You had no argument but FYI the latest UK net contribution to the EU actually rose by 2 billion year on year.

That's a good start providing you can verify this statement. And what did the UK receive in return? A doll at Christmas? 

 

Why I am questioning this, is not because the EU has its own financial debt issues, but what and why did the UK contribute more dosh? 

 

Now you're into a debate, which is what the mods would approve.  

 

[Mavideol]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Asked by Sky News where the money would be coming from, junior Treasury minister Rishi Sunak said it was "not a blank cheque" for spending but that Britain could afford to borrow more.

by Boris claims while campaigning for Brexit, UK has 350 million a week to spend (it was supposed to be for the NHS) thus nothing to worry about

 

from the Guardian news room on Set 18, 2017 ....Some Brexiteers now cheerfully admit that the figure was fake. To others, perhaps even Michael Gove, it has achieved a kind of mystical importance.

[dick dasterdly]

7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I'm quite certain that had you or I discussed a Bh37.5/£ with the influx of Britons retiring to Thailand when the exchange rate was above Bht70/£, they too would have said something very similar. 

 

I suggest you refresh your memory by revisiting threads here on TVF in which frantic discussions were had on the exchange rate as it dropped below Bht60/£.

 

You can object to Bht20/£ as an unsubstantiated number, but you'll have a harder time objecting to the observation on which way the exchange rate is going and the increasing financial difficulties of expats reliant upon income paid in Sterling. 

 

 

Interesting point.  Can you provide a link to any of those threads you mention in your post?

[dick dasterdly]

6 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

Boris' assumptions are probably correct. Can't see a situation where EU gave some special deal to UK. It would give exact opposite message to anyone else who might think of leaving. They want to either keep UK in EU or penalise them as badly as they can if they insist on leaving.

Even better, keep the uk in something like the eu/may wag, where the uk pretends to leave - but never actually does so, and so keeps on paying....

Edited July 29, 2019 by dick dasterdly

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

Go for it, Boris ! Our Donald will surely throw a lot of business towards U.K. ????

wishful thinking, wait and see... Trump doesn't care about the UK his main concern is MAGA

[metisdead]

Some baiting posts and the replies have been removed.   

[puipuitom]

GBP performs "fantastic" ... 0,54 % down towards €uro and 0,61 % towards US$ THIS MORNING...

 

Curious, when the British pound hits one once… 

[Mavideol]

7 hours ago, evadgib said:

Any return to violence is highly unlikely given the advances in technology and the changes to the RoE since September 2001. Fortunately the key players all know this even if Joe public doesn't.

wishful thinking.... wait and see

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

Exactly as Charles de Gaulle in 1963 had as reason to block the UK from entering the EEC

actually the UK is not part of the (mainland) EU, they are an island

[JHolmesJr]

Im excited that finally someone is standing up to the EU's bullying and taking them by the scruff of the neck.

Boris is the man to get this done....there will be some pain....it's an amputation not a small bruise.

[puipuitom]

21 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

actually the UK is not part of the (mainland) EU, they are an island

You do not understand what De Gaulle said.

[stephenterry]

25 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Interesting point.  Can you provide a link to any of those threads you mention in your post?

DD - you know very well that the £/baht exchange rate has fallen substantially - some of it as a consequence of Brexit and some of it, the Baht appreciating. I can not see an upside to that going forward.

 

It is very likely that a no deal Brexit would see a further depreciating of the £ - how long that would last for depends on how the government manages Brexit.

 

I have little confidence, right now, that any recovery period would occur in the short term - and most likely extend uncertainty if a GE and a new government is installed. 

 

The turmoil that Brexit has caused already will not abate, IMO, for many future years - it's just not feasible or realistic to think otherwise. 

 

In which case, the £/baht exchange rate will remain low. i'm not predicting exactly where it would bottom out, but I wouldn't be surprised if it falls to around a holding point of 30 baht to the pound in the short term - and that's being optimistic.

[stephenterry]

16 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

Im excited that finally someone is standing up to the EU's bullying and taking them by the scruff of the neck.

Boris is the man to get this done....there will be some pain....it's an amputation not a small bruise.

For the UK, you mean?

[geoffbezoz]

8 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

DD - you know very well that the £/baht exchange rate has fallen substantially - some of it as a consequence of Brexit and some of it, the Baht appreciating. I can not see an upside to that going forward.

 

It is very likely that a no deal Brexit would see a further depreciating of the £ - how long that would last for depends on how the government manages Brexit.

 

I have little confidence, right now, that any recovery period would occur in the short term - and most likely extend uncertainty if a GE and a new government is installed. 

 

The turmoil that Brexit has caused already will not abate, IMO, for many future years - it's just not feasible or realistic to think otherwise. 

 

In which case, the £/baht exchange rate will remain low. i'm not predicting exactly where it would bottom out, but I wouldn't be surprised if it falls to around a holding point of 30 baht to the pound in the short term - and that's being optimistic.

Agree with you and as I have repeatedly said, the UK will become the basket case of Europe very soon taking the honour from Greece.

[brokenbone]

2 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

Agree with you and as I have repeatedly said, the UK will become the basket case of Europe very soon taking the honour from Greece.

no, the brits still have ethics, work & tax, unlike greeks,

they will make it, but getting them self tariffs

with the largest trading nation in the world

is a self inflicted trauma that they will feel forever

[geoffbezoz]

1 minute ago, brokenbone said:

no, the brits still have ethics, work & tax, unlike greeks,

they will make it, but getting them self tariffs

with the largest trading nation in the world

is a self inflicted trauma that they will feel forever

Ethics and Tories is unequaitable

[dick dasterdly]

8 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I'm quite certain that had you or I discussed a Bh37.5/£ with the influx of Britons retiring to Thailand when the exchange rate was above Bht70/£, they too would have said something very similar. 

 

I suggest you refresh your memory by revisiting threads here on TVF in which frantic discussions were had on the exchange rate as it dropped below Bht60/£.

 

You can object to Bht20/£ as an unsubstantiated number, but you'll have a harder time objecting to the observation on which way the exchange rate is going and the increasing financial difficulties of expats reliant upon income paid in Sterling. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

Interesting point.  Can you provide a link to any of those threads you mention in your post?

 

22 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

DD - you know very well that the £/baht exchange rate has fallen substantially - some of it as a consequence of Brexit and some of it, the Baht appreciating. I can not see an upside to that going forward.

 

It is very likely that a no deal Brexit would see a further depreciating of the £ - how long that would last for depends on how the government manages Brexit.

 

I have little confidence, right now, that any recovery period would occur in the short term - and most likely extend uncertainty if a GE and a new government is installed. 

 

The turmoil that Brexit has caused already will not abate, IMO, for many future years - it's just not feasible or realistic to think otherwise. 

 

In which case, the £/baht exchange rate will remain low. i'm not predicting exactly where it would bottom out, but I wouldn't be surprised if it falls to around a holding point of 30 baht to the pound in the short term - and that's being optimistic.

My (admittedly, slightly pedantic) post was addressed to Chomper who referred to previous TV threads when sterling fell below 60 bht to support his 'cause'!

 

This annoyed me, as it would take hours/days to find threads going back to around the referendum - far more to find threads (if they still exist) to when the exchange rate was 70 and then 60!  (Believe me, I'd love to find them as I'm pretty sure that I predicted BRINO around that time.) 

 

FWIW, I agree that sterling will likely fall slightly further in the event of 'no deal', but also think that this has been largely 'factored in' nowadays - so once the uncertainty ends it is likely to fall slightly, stabilise and then improve.  But I'd be the first to agree that this is just my OPINION ????.

Edited July 29, 2019 by dick dasterdly