Your "Hard-Currency" of today......

[swissie]

Have a few Farang Buddies retiring soon, some plan to spend their retirement-years in Thailand. So far so good.
What amazes me is the fact that they pay little attention that this century will be the "Asian-Century". (China being the Locomotive). By filling in the "industrial/growth"-gap, S/Eastern countries currencies will strenghten. I can find no financial institution /financial analyst that would argue this point.
With another 15 to 20 years to go (life expentancy), Farangs may very well have to deal with a situation that their "hard-currency" may decline another 30 to 50% in coming years.

Amazingly, hardly anyone takes such a scenario into consideration. Quite the opposite: Most believe the Baht is "overvalued", it therefore MUST crash! Very likely the Baht will show occasinonal temporary weakness, but that will not change the long term trend.

The moral of the story: Every Farang contemplating spending their retirement in S/E Asia should take a sharp pencil and subject their Retirement-Finances to a "Stress-Test", reflecting a further erosion of their Farang Hard-Currency versus S/E Asian currencies.
To be sure: A foreseeable further "Hard-Currency-Erosion" must be part of any "Retirement-Planning".  
No need to have someone breathe down a Farangs neck sometime in the future, whispering in his ear: I TOLD YOU SO !

[Puchaiyank]

Unless you are uniquely aware of the trends in the world's currency, this one will creep up on an expat and fry him in small degrees until one day he wakes up and says: "What the fugg just happened?"

 

The negitive weight of currency exchanges may well send expats packing for greener ($) pastures...

 

Future trends in currency should be given equal weight with healthcare coverage when making important lifestyle changes...

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, swissie said:

will be the "Asian-Century". (China being the Locomotive). By filling in the "industrial/growth"-gap, S/Eastern countries currencies will strenghten. I can find no financial institution /financial analyst that would argue this point.

the incorrect portion of this is the tense.. "will be" - - this has been going on for a while...

 

How many financial analysts have you spoken with? Most don't have much of a track record predicting the future... 

 

But, I agree with your general premise that people should be aware of their vulnerabilities.... if that is what you are trying to say... so, thank you.