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Baht speculation on downtrend, says central bank governor


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10 minutes ago, madmen said:

Wine jumped through the roof last year. it would need to drop 30% to get back to old prices. please provide a link or it didn't happen

Yes, it did, due to the Excise Tax Act of 2017.  The increase in price was due to taxes and increased the price on imported wines by over 10%.  Since the tax was imposed, in other words, after factoring in the increase in price due to the new taxes, the prices of imported wines have decreased along with the strengthening Baht.

 

You can find your own link on the YOY changes in the price of imported wines.  My observations are based on my own purchases.  

 

I'm not sure what "old prices" are, but if you are referring to prices immediately before the increases due to the tax changes, then yes the strengthening of the baht has not yet offset the increase in price due to tax.  

 

hope that helps you!

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9 minutes ago, Angry Dragon said:

Yes, it did, due to the Excise Tax Act of 2017.  The increase in price was due to taxes and increased the price on imported wines by over 10%.  Since the tax was imposed, in other words, after factoring in the increase in price due to the new taxes, the prices of imported wines have decreased along with the strengthening Baht.

 

You can find your own link on the YOY changes in the price of imported wines.  My observations are based on my own purchases.  

 

I'm not sure what "old prices" are, but if you are referring to prices immediately before the increases due to the tax changes, then yes the strengthening of the baht has not yet offset the increase in price due to tax.  

 

hope that helps you!

They increased taxes on the back of soaring baht. Gee I wonder why they did that. If your going to make claims about cheap wine you need to back it up. Its not up to me to do that. What store,what wine,what price?

Us wine lovers are waiting to place orders ☺

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Just made the monthly transfer to THB and the rate was near to 1 baht better than the September transfer. That said the short term performance of sterling is very much determined by the actions of the Muppets of Westminster. ????????

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18 minutes ago, madmen said:

They increased taxes on the back of soaring baht. Gee I wonder why they did that. If your going to make claims about cheap wine you need to back it up. Its not up to me to do that. What store,what wine,what price?

Us wine lovers are waiting to place orders ☺

wine cellar (the one at emquartier).  

villa (rama 3 branch).

foodland (patpong branch), for "cheap" imports.  

 

I regularly buy wyndham merlot, as an example of an aussie wine, for around 600 THB a week ago.  A year ago this was closer to 700 THB just after the tax increase.  Castle Creek Dry White (not an aussie wine but another regular), is down around 1,600 THB, down from closer to 1,800 THB a year ago just after the tax increase. 

 

You'll note that these prices are lower than from the past year after the tax increase.  As for cheap wine (those under say 500 THB a bottle), I've not made any claims.  I'm talking about price changes, not overall cheapness.  

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13 hours ago, Grundy1927 said:

They want the baht 32 -33 to dollar, Brits Europeans Aussies need there currency 

To make gains on the dollar ie 

                  Dollar 33 baht

                   Pound  1.40 dollar 

Pound would be 33 × 1.4  = 46.2  

  Thais dont care about getting pound or Aussie dollar rates up all exports done in dollars

Simple really

On the whole, yes but I will add that I deal with CP's UK subsidiary and they buy chicken and seafood from their parent company in Thailand in pounds so it's a benefit for them if all currencies get stronger.

 

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Empty words

What he should be saying is that he is speculating that the baht should go lower so they might turn the tide against the speculators they blame for the baht going up. 

He is not a Mario Draghi and i doubt the authorities could deliver on any promise to do "whatever it takes" to lower the baht.

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News just in: I updated my Bangkok Bank accounts, got interest and the damn government clipped me 15 percent.  That's the reason I didn't bring all my money to LOS when I  made the move.....which in hindsight may not have been the right decision. 

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16 hours ago, BuckBee said:

interest rate needs dropping as in reality it has never moved .

certainly appears some intent with keeping baht high !

effects on exports and tourism is massive ...
Nobody in the country seeing benefit of price reductions on imports so who the ones gaining, few top elites ...

Exactly, a strong Bhat means those with the big money can buy assets abroad cheaply, probably Europe mainly. The fact that it is damaging the economy is of very little interest to them, unless they have investments in the export or tourist sector.

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2 hours ago, Angry Dragon said:

wine cellar (the one at emquartier).  

villa (rama 3 branch).

foodland (patpong branch), for "cheap" imports.  

 

I regularly buy wyndham merlot, as an example of an aussie wine, for around 600 THB a week ago.  A year ago this was closer to 700 THB just after the tax increase.  Castle Creek Dry White (not an aussie wine but another regular), is down around 1,600 THB, down from closer to 1,800 THB a year ago just after the tax increase. 

 

You'll note that these prices are lower than from the past year after the tax increase.  As for cheap wine (those under say 500 THB a bottle), I've not made any claims.  I'm talking about price changes, not overall cheapness.  

So 10 litre casks of castle creek selling at 1300 baht 2 years ago and are now only 3litres .

And your actually tracking wines that have dropped 100 baht?

Even if it's true why even bother? You still havnt posted a link with Price slashes..no hurry but please do

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59 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

News just in: I updated my Bangkok Bank accounts, got interest and the damn government clipped me 15 percent.  That's the reason I didn't bring all my money to LOS when I  made the move.....which in hindsight may not have been the right decision. 

They've been doing that for as long as I've lived here - nothing new.  There is withholding tax on interest and dividends.  If you are in a high enough income bracket, you actually benefit from this.

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39 minutes ago, madmen said:

So 10 litre casks of castle creek selling at 1300 baht 2 years ago and are now only 3litres .

And your actually tracking wines that have dropped 100 baht?

Even if it's true why even bother? You still havnt posted a link with Price slashes..no hurry but please do

"So 10 litre casks of castle creek selling at 1300 baht 2 years ago and are now only 3litres ."

 

No idea what this means.

 

"And your actually tracking wines that have dropped 100 baht?"

 

Since I'm a regular purchaser of those wines I've been following them inadvertently, yes.  I may be off a few baht, but the prices are definitely lower from a year ago.

 

"Even if it's true why even bother? You still havnt posted a link with Price slashes..no hurry but please do"

 

Can't be arsed, and I doubt retailers bother providing such statistics.  No skin off my back if you feel it's BS.

 

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Thai Central Bank need to lower interest rates and indicate they will lower the interest rate more. Just as all the other central banks are doing. Everyone is on the move to lower rates, except maybe Norway. Just see Australia today.

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It would be very helpful if the US/China trade war would end and all this capital sloshing around the markets goes back to China. Weakening global markets should have the dollar rising, not weakening. Of course I've been afraid for years that the dollar was overvalued and would eventually drop. I just hoped I'd be dead by then. Darn these good genes (actually I'm very grateful for my good genes which have given me better than average health. I'm a lucky man).

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20 hours ago, Scot123 said:

I think the damage is done as people book their holidays in advance and contracts that are being replace by more accommodating, stable cheaper countries. Just now Thailand is slipping but it is tarting to gain momentum..... When it crashes it will take a long time to recover... 

Not all people book their holidays in advance. 

 

When we read that Thailand will attract 40 million visitors this year, I am unclear on what this means. A visitor is someone who crosses the frontier and stays overnight. Are we counting people or are we counting nights? Because what is important is how much they spend and this is related to how long they stay.

 

This is important because people are booking their holidays with less and less notice and for shorter and shorter time. Rising numbers of Taurus I'm not necessarily a good thing, then, because they might be spending less and in  their more intense planning might be causing more damage to the environment.

 

More interesting than numbers of visitors or total tourist-nights is the total spend. Then focus marketing on the big spenders.

 

I cannot resist pointing out that giving expat residence a hard time Mets possibly help support for the government from the local population, but it is certainly one of the elements that are now discouraging visits from people who are worth attracting. Word of mouth cannot be over-estimated.

 

Just a couple of years ago people would book for a week . Now they book for three or four days. In a given City. Why is this?

 

The Backpackers are getting what they want to know off Instagram and then arrive with a very precise short list of what they wish to see. They are not wasting time visiting any old site or leaving much to chance.

 

Group tours in a minivan  are very good value for money. And even cheaper is to hire a car and a driver.

 

What the Backpackers are doing is visiting local to their hotel, taking one day organized tours, and if neither of these they stay in their room doing even my spies won't tell me what until 3 p.m. when the day starts to get cooler.

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4 hours ago, Angry Dragon said:

"So 10 litre casks of castle creek selling at 1300 baht 2 years ago and are now only 3litres ."

 

No idea what this means.

 

"And your actually tracking wines that have dropped 100 baht?"

 

Since I'm a regular purchaser of those wines I've been following them inadvertently, yes.  I may be off a few baht, but the prices are definitely lower from a year ago.

 

"Even if it's true why even bother? You still havnt posted a link with Price slashes..no hurry but please do"

 

Can't be arsed, and I doubt retailers bother providing such statistics.  No skin off my back if you feel it's BS.

 

10 liter casks have been replaced with 3 liter casks but at the same price... are you drunk? its easy to comprehend

 

so your just another internet dude making false statements  put up a link or move on brother because no wines "" have dropped substantially!!! "

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1 hour ago, billybog said:

I remember the days of 40 baht to the dollar...love to see that again.

I remember the days of 40 Baht to the GBPeso... love to see that again. Sadly, it isn't 1997 I am talking about...

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12 hours ago, madmen said:

10 liter casks have been replaced with 3 liter casks but at the same price... are you drunk? its easy to comprehend

 

so your just another internet dude making false statements  put up a link or move on brother because no wines "" have dropped substantially!!! "

Actually I drink very little, but my English skills are superb.  Here is what you meant to say (thanks to the addition of your five little words in your explanation):  "You could buy 10 litre casks of castle creek at 1300 baht 2 years ago, but today you can only buy 3 litre casks for that price."  

 

Dropping 10-15% in the past year may or may not be a substantial drop to you.  Again, we are looking at the change in price over the past year, not from two years ago, when the price was affected by the new tax laws.  This thread is about the strength of the Thai Baht and its impact on prices.  The THB has appreciated around 13% against the Aussie dollar over the past year, which corresponds with the fall in price for imported Aussie wine over the past year (again, over the past year, not two years which would be before the tax hike).

 

best of luck with your sobriety

 

 

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21 hours ago, Angry Dragon said:

wine cellar (the one at emquartier).  

villa (rama 3 branch).

foodland (patpong branch), for "cheap" imports.  

 

I regularly buy wyndham merlot, as an example of an aussie wine, for around 600 THB a week ago.  A year ago this was closer to 700 THB just after the tax increase.  Castle Creek Dry White (not an aussie wine but another regular), is down around 1,600 THB, down from closer to 1,800 THB a year ago just after the tax increase. 

 

You'll note that these prices are lower than from the past year after the tax increase.  As for cheap wine (those under say 500 THB a bottle), I've not made any claims.  I'm talking about price changes, not overall cheapness.  

????????????????

OMG....Wyndham Merlot i buy in UK £5.99

Maybe 180bht....why on earth you want to pay 600bht. As in my prev comments on various forums. Thailand esp Bangkok soooo expensive.

How can expats afford to live there and have a nice comfortable life if they are retired?

My ex even now in her fillipino strops....says she did not like me counting all the time. 

I still have money whilst she since she become my ex...has no money struggles with paying her rent.

Moto of the post...Money dont grow on trees

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