Thailand Is Down...

[Mobi]

After stuffing my face at the Montien last Wednesday the Mrs. and me drove down soi 6 Pattaya. The street was not empty. Every hooker was on the street, sitting outside with no one to pull into the bars.

Soi six was empty of Farang but full of Thai Hookers who looked very hungry, and it wasn't food they craved.

JR

I'm not sure that a lack of business in Soi 6 is a particularly accurate yardstick in assessing an overall downward trend in tourism and related business in LOS.

Indeed there would be many who would be joyful at such news, as the name of the game is to encourage the more upmarket and better heeled to their sunny shores.

Interesting snippet none the less

Time will tell.

[jeffrosner]

If it helps, there were only 12 people at the Mediterranean Buffet. Normally it is packed. A lot of food went to waste.

[tgf7]

Thailand is getting some bad press as late. All you here about is the violence down south and the drug addicted youths robbing/beating tourists. If that was not bad enough...the baht has fallen from 40 baht to 35 baht to the dollar....or less.

I first visited Thailand in the early 90's....so different......friendly people..smiles.......now not so much. The people in tourist areas seem so jaded.

The story of the Thai cutting off that womans arm didn't help much either.

Look, there are a lot of cheap, sunny places to visit.....where we are welcome and happy to be hosted. Thailand better smarten up fast or else.

Tim

[Mid]

I believe there is a general turn down beginning to happen, but it is one that is subtly happening ... in fact it is happening in such a dribs and drab fashion that I reckon it will take about two years before the impact is 'really' felt to the degree that changes will have to happen to improve it.

possibly the saddest fact in this thread .........................................

spelling

Edited April 1, 2007 by Mid

[enyaw]

I believe there is a general turn down beginning to happen, but it is one that is subtly happening ... in fact it is happening in such a dribs and drab fashion that I reckon it will take about two years before the impact is 'really' felt to the degree that changes will have to happen to improve it.

possibly the saddest fact in this thread .........................................

spelling

I also believe this to be true, the recent media highlight on air travel as a cause of global warming must surely have an impact on the numbers? Maybe not a great impact but still effectively a deterrent all the same, also the stong baht must be a factor.

[JR Texas]

I believe there is a general turn down beginning to happen, but it is one that is subtly happening ... in fact it is happening in such a dribs and drab fashion that I reckon it will take about two years before the impact is 'really' felt to the degree that changes will have to happen to improve it.

possibly the saddest fact in this thread .........................................

spelling

I also believe this to be true, the recent media highlight on air travel as a cause of global warming must surely have an impact on the numbers? Maybe not a great impact but still effectively a deterrent all the same, also the stong baht must be a factor.

JR Texas: Good point raised about the fact that it is the low season. Good point raised about the "subtle and longstanding downturn."

Back in 2000 I made a decision not to purchase anything of large value (e.g., condo, car, house) or start a business in Thailand because of the instability and rising negative attitude towards outsiders (and not on part of most Thais but we know who/what I am talking about).

I did buy a house, but that was more of a "love present." Over the years a large group of farangs poured in to LOS falsely thinking it was paradise. "Irrational exuberance" was evident, especially in the real estate market.

In terms of the economy and tourists figures, it has been a long, slow downturn since at least 2000 with some ups....yes, but the trend is down. And yes, you can produce figures to counter this. If you trust them, then I have some oceanfront property to sell you in the middle of a desert.

Those that saw this a long time ago are already gone with their big money (yes, many people with big money have already left....not just the so-called poor perpetual tourists).

I think the vast majority of Thais are being hurt by the system that was created by Mr. T. I think it is something they know but do not like to think about. If they think about it too much we might see a replay of some of the violent social events in the past....but even those are always temporary.

The old farangs with little money and no way to make it on their small pensions will likely continue to flock here........that will offset some of the problems that have been created.....but it will not be enough in the long run and younger people will not have those same pensions when they retire. And those that have them now need to consider the fact that many pensions plans are precarious and governments are broke.

We live in a time of great uncertainty. And some people in high places seem to want to increase that uncertainty. That is not good for most business. It is not good for tourism. It is not good for the economy. It is not good for the vast majority of people.

[canuckamuck]

If we are just talking about tourists, then this is not a brilliant time of year to look out the window and decide if numbers are down. However, if you consider what motivates someone to hop on a plane and throw a bunch of hard earned cash into a precious holiday plan. You have got to ask yourself what sort of information they are getting that would make this place a logical destination. In that I mean a better choice than all the other flashy new resorts that are popping up around the globe.

If people begin to find out about the 2000 or so citizens that have been murdered down south in the last three years, or the fact democracy was tossed out by the military, and many still recall the tsunami. Thailand can seem like a risky and foolish place to visit.

Especially when media types like CNN, love to play up the horrors of the sex trade and human trafficking. You have to ask your self what convinces new people to come at all.

Thailand’s tourism industry is basically running word of mouth from the last 20 years of great vacations and industry promotion. Eventually the continual negative press is going to start putting too many questions in more and more people’s minds. All it takes is a moment of doubt; to make people chose option B. Suddenly people are heading to Belize or New Zealand, or some other safe and equally fun place.

My thought is how is it possible the numbers aren’t down already?

[JR Texas]

If we are just talking about tourists, then this is not a brilliant time of year to look out the window and decide if numbers are down. However, if you consider what motivates someone to hop on a plane and throw a bunch of hard earned cash into a precious holiday plan. You have got to ask yourself what sort of information they are getting that would make this place a logical destination. In that I mean a better choice than all the other flashy new resorts that are popping up around the globe.

If people begin to find out about the 2000 or so citizens that have been murdered down south in the last three years, or the fact democracy was tossed out by the military, and many still recall the tsunami. Thailand can seem like a risky and foolish place to visit.

Especially when media types like CNN, love to play up the horrors of the sex trade and human trafficking. You have to ask your self what convinces new people to come at all.

Thailand’s tourism industry is basically running word of mouth from the last 20 years of great vacations and industry promotion. Eventually the continual negative press is going to start putting too many questions in more and more people’s minds. All it takes is a moment of doubt; to make people chose option B. Suddenly people are heading to Belize or New Zealand, or some other safe and equally fun place.

My thought is how is it possible the numbers aren’t down already?

JR Texas: Good points above. As I said, statistics can be manipulated to present any picture. I do not trust the tourism figures at all. There have been other threads on this subject and I do remember many people talking about how tourism was way down in various places.......less so in Phuket and Pattaya, but still down all over.

I also just read that Chinese and Russian tourists are flocking here........so maybe that is offsetting the problem.

This is a fantasy land......you have powerful forces wanting to keep truth from the public.......they are doing it for economic reasons.

Just look at what they just did in Chiang Mai....the disaster zone is no longer a disaster zone. Why? Because they want the money that Songkran holidaymakers will provide.

But, in the end, it is hard to hide the truth. People talk. When you piss off thousands of foreigners who have lived here for many years and contributed to the country and supported Thais........well.....they react like humans do and start talking....and they do not have a lot of good things to say.

Other places are shaping up to be better than LOS....maybe not now....but they are moving in that direction. When real and genuine and positive alternatives to LOS open up in this part of the world (there are already good alternatives in other parts), many people will just leave, particularly if the visa/business rules and regulations continue to get worse.

I really miss the old LOS....the pre-2000 LOS.

[OlRedEyes]

Terry57 - Please don't use this thread for another one of your I LOVE THAILAND rants........

We know that you love Thailand and everything about the place.

We know.

We know.

We FARKIN well KNOW!!!

It's a bit like them evangelists.....

[chanchao]

My Condo has seen a distinct shift from Farangs to Chinese and Japanese these past 6 months.

And why is that bad? Thais honestly don't care what country people come from to visit, and rightly so.

But speaking of 6 month periods for analysis: This *IS* the lowest of the low season right now. Indeed shouldn't affect residents, but also residents would prefer to go to bars when there's somewhat of an 'atpmosphere' happening, rather than throw bored girls a bone.

I do however firmly believe that things are piling up and making people reconsider. ESPECIALLY the military coup, along with the information that large parts of the country are under martial law (WE know that doesn't amount to much, but consider you're a potential tourist flipping through brochures for a family holiday). Then there's the 'civil war' (again not a classification I'd pick) in 'the South, where the beaches are' (again not a classification I'd pick as it most certainly doesn't affect the popular spots). Add to that indicidents like bird flu (which was hot while people were booking this year's holidays), or recently the haze/smog in the North. It just goes on and on.

Edited April 1, 2007 by chanchao

[Ulysses G.]

Maybe Chiang Mai is different, but we consider this to be the end of high season culminating in Song Kran.

If it were not for the Flower Show in Chiang Mai - foreign tourists were not able to reserve hotel rooms because Thais had booked them all up - it would have been a fine year for most businesses. Of course the pollution this year at the end of high season didn't help anything.

[OlRedEyes]

Another confirmation that the bar crowd is down! OMG! The sky really is falling!

Thailand's tourism industry really IS in shambles!

Notify all the southern islands!

...all the hill-tribe trekkers in Chiang Rai!

...all the tourists to Thailand's multitude of old Khmer temples and historical places.

...all the new health spa industry people!

...all the medical-vacation promoters and visitors!

...all the National Parks!

They need to know that the pub crowd has deserted them, and they should all go home too!

I can't believe this thread.

What do all these morally correct, high quality, temple-admiring tourists do in the evenings? Go to bed at 8?

[Maigo6]

Plus.........

If you are from the UK, you wanna get away from the miserable continually moaning people, right ?

So you head off for your dream holiday in Thailand, walk into a bar, and bump into a load of miserable expats who do nothing but continually moan about Thailand.

Edited April 1, 2007 by Maigo6

[OlRedEyes]

I believe there is a general turn down beginning to happen, but it is one that is subtly happening ... in fact it is happening in such a dribs and drab fashion that I reckon it will take about two years before the impact is 'really' felt to the degree that changes will have to happen to improve it.

I have to say that over the past month at least, several of my Thai colleagues have been into the office to have a conversation with me and in all cases it started with them asking me questions about where all the foreigners had gone and to what do I think about the FBA and the impact it will have.

My wife came even home yesterday after an MBA class saying that her finance professor (who is also a Director at Kassikorn bank) is telling them that now is not a good time to have a business in Thailand.

The Insurance company where my wife works also saw a 60% drop in business in the first three months of this year

My boss who is on the Thai constitution drafting commitee is saying that the FBA will surely have an impact on foreign company infrastructures stating in his reasoning that it was foreigners who were to blame for breaking Thai laws by their abuse of nominee shares. If this doesn't have an impact when all of these foreign companies suddenly get declared illegal then I don't know what will.

My Condo has seen a distinct shift from Farangs to Chinese and Japanese these past 6 months.

One large Telco company here that I am aware of has / is moving their operation to both China and Indonesia and getting out of Thailand completely. I am not sure what impact this will have on the economy per sae other than the 150 or so Thai staff, who get an average salary of 70k, will no longer have a job here.

Seven of my friends have now already gone with another three currently mulling things over. If you take the 7 who have already gone and calculate that each had on average about 5.5 million baht in savings that they 'wanted' to use to invest in a Condo (but didn't when the visa rules changed) coupled with each of them earning on average 65k per month and spending it all within the Thai economy, well that is about 5.4 million per year in annual spends along with another 38 million in possible Condo investments gone forever out of the economy. Maybe a small drop in the ocean but not in the local community it won't be. (And no, none of them are broke or down and out either, it's just that they have had enough and went to pastures new)

Even yours truly is getting out in May to take up a new position elsewhere. The exodus is happening, but I believe it is happening so slowly that people are not noticing it yet but they will eventually.

Exactly, though I'd say it will happen a little faster, most won't go running away leaving everything behind. They will take a little time to extract themselves as painlessly as possible.

[Ulysses G.]

Another confirmation that the bar crowd is down! OMG! The sky really is falling!

Thailand's tourism industry really IS in shambles!

Notify all the southern islands!

...all the hill-tribe trekkers in Chiang Rai!

...all the tourists to Thailand's multitude of old Khmer temples and historical places.

...all the new health spa industry people!

...all the medical-vacation promoters and visitors!

...all the National Parks!

They need to know that the pub crowd has deserted them, and they should all go home too!

I can't believe this thread.

What do all these morally correct, high quality, temple-admiring tourists do in the evenings? Go to bed at 8?

I did all this stuff so I wouldn't get bored waiting for Patpong to open every night.

[OlRedEyes]

Another confirmation that the bar crowd is down! OMG! The sky really is falling!

Thailand's tourism industry really IS in shambles!

Notify all the southern islands!

...all the hill-tribe trekkers in Chiang Rai!

...all the tourists to Thailand's multitude of old Khmer temples and historical places.

...all the new health spa industry people!

...all the medical-vacation promoters and visitors!

...all the National Parks!

They need to know that the pub crowd has deserted them, and they should all go home too!

I can't believe this thread.

What do all these morally correct, high quality, temple-admiring tourists do in the evenings? Go to bed at 8?

I did all this stuff so I wouldn't get bored waiting for Patpong to open every night.

Ka-Chinggggg.....

[zanzibar]

sounds like I left at the right time.

Edited April 1, 2007 by zanzibar

[BigSnake]

My Humble opinion the worse is yet to come> good luck to all

[Mobi]

As far as tourism from places like the UK is concerned, I would say this.

The average Brit probably books his holiday in the sun at least 6 months in advance, and relies on travel brochures, travel agents, travel articles in magazines and newspapers, and the all important TV holiday programmes to make his choice. Price , of course is also big factor.

Now I have no idea to what extent the negative press about Thailand is seepoing to the outside world, but my guess is that not a great deal has yet. But when it does, it won't take long to get up a head of steam. It will only take a couple of negative pieces in the travel journals, and something uncomplimentary on one of the travel shows and the ball will begin to roll. Can you imagine a Tv travel slot where the presenter complains about the debauchery and sex industry in Pattaya, the dual pricing at National parks, and maybe the increasing anti - foreigner sentiment in the country. This is to say nothing of sensationalist stuff getting into the general news, like coups and tanks on the street, the killings in the South, the murders of tourists and so on.

All these things can be explained away till the cows come home - but it is the perception that counts. Not too long ago, Thailand with it's lovely, kind, smiling welcoming people, was one of the most coveted destinations for UK holidaymakers. Not sure that is true any more, and the word will soon be out, if it's not already.

Once booking's start to tail off a little, the tour companies will look elsewhere to find holidays to sell, and Thailand will start to feel a definite chill.

P.S. I'm not, and never have been in the travel industry, and the forgoing is purely my opinion. Maybe the professionals out there would like to comment, and shoot me down in flames if I am wrong?

Edited April 1, 2007 by Mobi D'Ark

[Ulysses G.]

P.S. I'm not, and never have been in the travel industry, and the forgoing is purely my opinion. Maybe the professionals out there would like to comment, and shoot me down in flames if I am wrong?

Other than pretending that sex industry is not Thailand's biggest attraction, you've hit the nail right on the head!

[jasreeve17]

So, a possible conclusion to this thread could be:-

Now is a bad time of year to judge, it's normally very quiet in Bangkok, for several reasons (heat, Thai holiday period, tourist low season).

Generally, we think that a downward trend has started, based on personal experiences from good posters based in Bangkok, and others.

(Southern violence, bombs in Bangkok, foreign offices advice, coup, some bad press, high baht, anti-foreigner feeling, lack of investor confidence, change in visa rules).

Some posters (who don't live in Bangkok) don't believe in a down trend, and thus decided to offer flames, over reasoned thoughts.

It's very hard to tell in this country, one way or the other.

My belief is that there must be a downward trend. Logic dictates it. Just look at the long list of negative events. The existing expats, who are North American, Australasian, and European, will drop. This slack will be taken up by the Chinese, and Koreans (not so many of these though) with a general effect of parity. Generally, the Thais don't care (or won't allow themselves to be seen to care), and won't be bothered that there are less Farags, but more Chinese.

A significant shift, with the end result of no real change here.

Thanks for all (yes all) contributions.

[canuckamuck]

If you think the replacement of westerners with the creeping shadow of China, represents no real change. Consider their historical appreciation of cultural subtleties, diversity, and human rights. It's not apples to apples.

My brother lived in Central China for 7 years. They are a little short on sunook.

[Mobi]

P.S. I'm not, and never have been in the travel industry, and the forgoing is purely my opinion. Maybe the professionals out there would like to comment, and shoot me down in flames if I am wrong?

Other than pretending that sex industry is not Thailand's biggest attraction, you've hit the nail right on the head!

Well I'm not going to get into an argument over this, but I spent many years in the UK between 1983 and 2000, and I worked in the city. I can still recall literally dozens of people that I met/and or knew from all walks of life who, when they discovered I had Thai wife, would recount the wonderful holidays they had had in Thailand - many going for repeat visits.

I can put my hand on my heart and honestly say that not a single person that I met had the slightest interest in the Thai sex industry; they were all married couples - some old, some young,some with children, and they had their holidays all over Thailand, from Bangkok, to Phuket, to Koh Samui, and even one young Irish couple who adored Pattaya, enjoyed the red light district, but certainly never indulged in the sex for sale. I had six adult members of my family over during new Year's and before that some other married couples from the UK. They all had wonderful holidays, without the need to partake in sexual pleasures.

Yes, there is a particular section of the tourist industry who come for the sex, and it's unlikely that many of these will be put off by the current negative factors. If anything it might encourage them, in the belief that there may be even more girls available.

How the sex tourists rate in their dollar spending compared to non- sex tourists' spending is anyone's guess.

[jasreeve17]

If you think the replacement of westerners with the creeping shadow of China, represents no real change. Consider their historical appreciation of cultural subtleties, diversity, and human rights. It's not apples to apples.

My brother lived in Central China for 7 years. They are a little short on sunook.

You may think that, and I may, or may not agree with you. (I used to live in Mongolia where the Chinese are really hated)

But, I believe that the Thais like and respect the Chinese much more than the farangs. So to them it'd be a good change.

[jdinasia]

So, a possible conclusion to this thread could be:-

Now is a bad time of year to judge, it's normally very quiet in Bangkok, for several reasons (heat, Thai holiday period, tourist low season).

Generally, we think that a downward trend has started, based on personal experiences from good posters based in Bangkok, and others.

(Southern violence, bombs in Bangkok, foreign offices advice, coup, some bad press, high baht, anti-foreigner feeling, lack of investor confidence, change in visa rules).

Some posters (who don't live in Bangkok) don't believe in a down trend, and thus decided to offer flames, over reasoned thoughts.

It's very hard to tell in this country, one way or the other.

My belief is that there must be a downward trend. Logic dictates it.

I think the concensus is that one night out wandering from bar to bar for 2 hours is NOT a way to measure any downturn! But congrats on summing it all up to make it sound like you have it pegged and that folks that don't agree with you were dismissed out of hand Having been in Thailand ... AND not limited to BKK it is easy peasy to see that you just don't have a clue on this ..... a couple of hours at some bars was the basis for your thoughts.

Could there be a downturn? yes ... is it related to tourism? no Will this year's tourism numbers confirm this? I believe so

[canuckamuck]

If you think the replacement of westerners with the creeping shadow of China, represents no real change. Consider their historical appreciation of cultural subtleties, diversity, and human rights. It's not apples to apples.

My brother lived in Central China for 7 years. They are a little short on sunook.

You may think that, and I may, or may not agree with you. (I used to live in Mongolia where the Chinese are really hated)

But, I believe that the Thais like and respect the Chinese much more than the farangs. So to them it'd be a good change.

Your optimism to save your opinion even overlooks your own observations from Mongolia.

This thread just went into terminal loop.

I'm out.

[jasreeve17]

So, a possible conclusion to this thread could be:-

Now is a bad time of year to judge, it's normally very quiet in Bangkok, for several reasons (heat, Thai holiday period, tourist low season).

Generally, we think that a downward trend has started, based on personal experiences from good posters based in Bangkok, and others.

(Southern violence, bombs in Bangkok, foreign offices advice, coup, some bad press, high baht, anti-foreigner feeling, lack of investor confidence, change in visa rules).

Some posters (who don't live in Bangkok) don't believe in a down trend, and thus decided to offer flames, over reasoned thoughts.

It's very hard to tell in this country, one way or the other.

My belief is that there must be a downward trend. Logic dictates it.

I think the concensus is that one night out wandering from bar to bar for 2 hours is NOT a way to measure any downturn! But congrats on summing it all up to make it sound like you have it pegged and that folks that don't agree with you were dismissed out of hand Having been in Thailand ... AND not limited to BKK it is easy peasy to see that you just don't have a clue on this ..... a couple of hours at some bars was the basis for your thoughts.

Could there be a downturn? yes ... is it related to tourism? no Will this year's tourism numbers confirm this? I believe so

My concensus - Read and listen to everyones points and link them together, in particular, highlighting the most common views.

Your concensus - Your personal rant.

If you don't like me, or my ideas, then you have the right to ignore me, and my thread - it's very easy. A never ending attack just becomes boring.

[jasreeve17]

If you think the replacement of westerners with the creeping shadow of China, represents no real change. Consider their historical appreciation of cultural subtleties, diversity, and human rights. It's not apples to apples.

My brother lived in Central China for 7 years. They are a little short on sunook.

You may think that, and I may, or may not agree with you. (I used to live in Mongolia where the Chinese are really hated)

But, I believe that the Thais like and respect the Chinese much more than the farangs. So to them it'd be a good change.

Your optimism to save your opinion even overlooks your own observations from Mongolia.

This thread just went into terminal loop.

I'm out.

The Chinese and Mongolians have 3000 years of history. Fighting and killing each other to the nth degree. I like Mongolians, but am not willing to hate all Chinese based on their word.

Thais don't dislike the Chinese. Thus, Chinese tourists are welcomed.

[jdinasia]

You have not been attacked by me .... you have had the fallacy of your initial supposition and the following ones ... pointed out ..

You repeat the same silliness over and over in an attempt to reinforce your p.o.v. and dismiss others. it begs to be answered ... (as for ignoring YOUR thread .... that is indicative of the issue here. ) I don't know you <to like you or not> and as far as your ideas go ... I only know one of them ... I don't dislike it .. I think it is silly.

NOW ----- a mild attack would look like this ..." How F'n stupid does a sex-pat have to be when wandering up Suk for 2 hours popping into "entertainment venues" to think he could use this to draw conclusions about tourism in BKK on a broad scale?" ------ Note ... I never said that. I just said that the idea of drawing any conclusions from your walk up Suk was silly

[midas]

I remember the late 1980's and early 1990's when Thailand was nicknamed

an " Asian Tiger " . This coincided with the simultaneous rise of neighboring

Malaysia and Indonesia ? Other than these countries at that time there was limited choice for

investment dollars and tourist dollars in this immediate region. Since then we've seen the following :-

Vietnam - has gradually developed to be able to offer a very viable alternative destination

Cambodia - although in earlier stage is doing the same

China - many travellers wouldn't have considered this as a travel destination in the 1990's but

definitely do so now and apparently some international investors are doing the same.

India - ditto - BMW opening their first manufacturing plant there

Myanmar - though moving much slower investment by the Chinese is providing

improved infrastructure and accommodation for travelers

At the time Thailand was regarded as a " Tiger " most if not all of these

alternative destinations were either " off-limit " or just hadn't been noticed

by the rest of the world.

I just think if there is a drop-off in tourism occurring in Thailand- it is partly

due to a greater choice being available to both travelers and investors

and may be the Thai's overlooked/forgot this to some extent ........?