Will Thailand break out of middile income status?

[ChaiyaTH]

1 minute ago, genericptr said:

Sure but the point still stands that Thais that appear wealthy may doing things we wouldn't expect. I've watched Thais drive nice cars into totally broken down junk houses with dirt lawns.

Many actually live in 2K baht apartments while driving a 600K-1M car hehe. 

[cmarshall]

47 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

If you ask me, Thailand is not even close to the 'Middle Income Status' and will not get there anytime soon either.
Vietnam is going to take over, that is really just a matter of time. People seem to underestimate how powerful the trade deal with Europe etc. is as well, TH lost their chances, which is really a shame and huge missed opportunity for a country that was on the right track for many years until the coup.

The same counts for TH their ruined chance on Digital / IT level, by not providing the right visas, the future is all IT / AI / Robots etc, VN walks away with it again.

 

In terms of TH future; richer will just get richer, a minority of a few million have half decent to good jobs, the rest will remain poor for another X decades.

Both Thailand and Vietnam qualify as Middle Income economies, i.e. Gross National Product (not GDP) between $1000 and $12000, but Thailand's is five times that of Vietnam.  But you're right that Vietnam is catching up.  Below is a comparison of the exports of the two countries in millions of US dollars.  However, Thailand has been unable to progress to exporting high-value goods from its own companies.  It remains to be seen if Vietnam will do any better at joining the rich nations of Asia.

 

[ChaiyaTH]

5 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

It remains to be seen if Vietnam will do any better at joining the rich nations of Asia.

I am pretty confident at that, as the deals made with VN, were never made with TH. Also what remains to be seen is if VN will distribute it's coming wealth more fairly / equally compared to TH. As the GDP made qualify for middle class income, we all know 95% of wealth is in hands of a few. 

I also suspect TH to lose GDP if VN takes over. 

Not that I expect VN to be super fair on this end, it is indeed something to await. A big difference too is that the VN people seem to be motivated, to grow and learn, become a more open country finally etc. This while the Thais never seemed to be that motivated.
(Same for Cambodians, very hard working and learning people).

Edited January 15, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[intheheartoftheheart]

From my experience working with Vietnamese designers, 3d modelers, and animators vs their Thai (and Malaysian0 counterparts I would stake my life on Vietnam absolutely destroying Thailand and the rest of SEA in the economic arms race.

 

Viets are, without a doubt, smarter, more ambitious, more creative, more eager to learn, and willing to take criticism (and provide necessary pushback) than the rest of SEA.

 

From a personality standpoint Viets remind me of the South Koreans, but better--same work ethic, but more creative and less of a herd mentality in their thinking.

 

Thais remind me of Mexicans or Latin Americans back home. Like garish fabrics, loud, vapid TV shows, spicy food, and, for the most part, are content to hang out at home with their families. Nothing wrong with that, for sure, but not a strong bet for economic dynamism.

 

My 2 cents after doing a lot of work down here. 

[cmarshall]

For VN to become a rich nation means they would have to export their own high-value added products deisgned and produced by Vietnamese-owned companies to compete successfully in global markets.  This requires the transfer of existing technology from abroad as well as making their own technology breakthroughs in the future as Japan did with autos in the past or Korea with flat-screen TVs and LPG tanker ships.  

 

So far, VN hasn't done any of this.  Like Thailand they have grown to this point by selling cheap labor.  For instance, the supply chain for some wooden building products in the US market starts with timber cut in New Zealand which is then shipped to VN for milling and maybe painting in some cases before export to US lumber distributors.  New Zealand supplies the raw materials while VN adds value only from its cheap labor.  They will have to move beyond this level of development to become one of the rich nations.

 

[intheheartoftheheart]

23 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

For VN to become a rich nation means they would have to export their own high-value added products deisgned and produced by Vietnamese-owned companies to compete successfully in global markets.  This requires the transfer of existing technology from abroad as well as making their own technology breakthroughs in the future as Japan did with autos in the past or Korea with flat-screen TVs and LPG tanker ships.  

 

So far, VN hasn't done any of this.  Like Thailand they have grown to this point by selling cheap labor.  For instance, the supply chain for some wooden building products in the US market starts with timber cut in New Zealand which is then shipped to VN for milling and maybe painting in some cases before export to US lumber distributors.  New Zealand supplies the raw materials while VN adds value only from its cheap labor.  They will have to move beyond this level of development to become one of the rich nations.

 

Yep.

 

Totally remains to be seen but the ball is in their court for sure.

 

BIS is about to let them join the cabal:

 

https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/571169/vietnamese-central-bank-invited-to-become-bis-member.html

 

Plus:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-09/vietnam-s-richest-man-bets-2-billion-to-sell-cars-to-americans

 

 

[Roy Baht]

2 hours ago, genericptr said:

Sure but the point still stands that Thais that appear wealthy may doing things we wouldn't expect. I've watched Thais drive nice cars into totally broken down junk houses with dirt lawns.

That's because Thais rather look rich today than be rich tomorrow. They go broke and into debt in order to look rich. I asked a Thai woman why a Thai will live in a 2M baht home and buy a 10M baht car. "It's because most people won't see your house. They will see your car when go to work or go shopping." I've met very few Thais who save money for the future or make long-term investments. It's all immediate gratification and showing off for idiots.

[Hal65]

9 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

That's because Thais rather look rich today than be rich tomorrow. They go broke and into debt in order to look rich. I asked a Thai woman why a Thai will live in a 2M baht home and buy a 10M baht car. "It's because most people won't see your house. They will see your car when go to work or go shopping." I've met very few Thais who save money for the future or make long-term investments. It's all immediate gratification and showing off for idiots.

Are their TV shows filled with high-living HiSo's? If so I could see how their pop culture promotes that.

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

I've met very few Thais who save money for the future or make long-term investments. It's all immediate gratification and showing off for idiots.

Exactly. Deferring consumption in order to invest in the future is the premier sign of first world nations. USA has been going down this path full speed since 1970 or so and we've only survived this long because of previous investments from older generations.

 

I also believe the US would crumble under the 20+ trillion debt rather fast if they stopped importing 1 million 3rd worlders per year. And yes, we're going to be paying for that temporary boost to GDP for the next hundred years in terms of social unrest and perpetual inter-ethnic conflict.

[bermondburi]

On 1/9/2020 at 1:11 PM, Thaidream said:

Thailand is nowhere near a middle income country.  The vast majority of Thai people are poor and either uneducated or poorly educated.

 

The Thai people one sees in  Western style restaurants are those who have  upper management positions in banks ; the military or police. or stable industry.

 

In Thailand 1% of the population control 67% of the total wealth. Travel to Issan and see how the average Thai lives or go to the outskirts of Bangkok where  the low paid factory workers or   other minimum wage people  live.

 

Walk around a construction site and  look at all the roadside stalls set up where the construction workers eat- they are not sitting in air conditioned restaurants.

 

While many  more people can purchase consumer goods such as cars- it is always on credit.  Banks give credit cards with a 300K limit to people making 10,000 Baht per month.  HUge numbers of Thai people are way over extended on credit.

 

It is impossible for more people to be brought into middle income unless the following happens-

-Corruption must be limited if not stopped. It is estimated that almost 30% of the National Budget is missing.

 

-English has to be taught to everyone by teachers who are native and acredited.

 

-Students in Universities must be encouraged to go into Computer science or other technical skills.

 

-The military needs to get out of the business of trying to 'run' a country.  They have no skills for this. They are trained for military activities . In addition, thje military needs to get out of state enterprises and privitize these with professional leadership.

 

IMO Thailand is regressing while the rest of South?East Asia is moving forward. Thailand should  have GDP of around 5-6 % to push more people into a real middle class. Instead , due to mismangement it will have only 2.5%.  

I earn over 200,000 baht a month teaching English. Housing provided free with no bills. Car provided with free fuel. $4000 yearly flight allowance. $5000 yearly completion bonus. Admittedly, for what I do I'm well paid, but why on earth would I go and teach in Thailand for peanuts??? 

[saengd]

11 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

The fact you refer to this, and keep yourself busy with this, says so much more about you than the person you complain about. Get a life.

I already have a fine life, thank you, it just doesn't extend to discussing the economy of Korea in a thread about Thailand on a Thai forum!

 

But regarding Vietnam's export growth versus that of Thailand, Vietnam at least being a near neighbor and a part of ASEAN:

 

Whilst Vietnam's exports have grown at a decent rate Thailand's have declined as a result of two factors, above and beyond anything to do with the strength of the Baht. In the first instance the US withdrew GSP import concessions from Thailand that had been awarded to developing nations whilst the same concession was left in place for Vietnam...this is seen as the US imposing a penalty for Thailand's trade imbalance and current account surplus.

 

The second issue concerns exports to the EU which were suspended because of Thailand's labor laws in the fishing and seas food sector. The Vietnamese fishing industry had identical problems but quickly moved to pass laws that pay lip service to the problems, not that the problems are even nearly resolved. 

 

 https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thai-exports-will-suffer-from-trump-decision

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/19/vietnam-boats-using-child-labour-for-illegal-fishing

 

When comparing exports from the two countries I think it's important to view Vietnam's impressive export growth in the context of Thai. exports being constrained by overseas political maneuvering rather than the ability of the country to produce and export.

[Roy Baht]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

The Vietnamese fishing industry had identical problems but quickly moved to pass laws that pay lip service to the problems,

Frankly, I can't imagine the problem being as bad in Vietnam as it was here. The children on Vietnamese fishing boats were most likely family members. I lived near a Thai fishing village where it was common knowledge (which of course no one dared speak out openly about) that Thai fisherman trafficked Burmese migrants to work on the boats in slave-like conditions. If the Burmese migrant died from overwork or illness, they simply tossed him overboard like garbage and the body would wash up on the shore.

In any case, governments and NGOs usually send inspectors to verify that fishing nations do more than just pay lip service to international labour laws.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

Frankly, I can't imagine the problem being as bad in Vietnam as it was here. The children on Vietnamese fishing boats were most likely family members. I lived near a Thai fishing village where it was common knowledge (which of course no one dared speak out openly about) that Thai fisherman trafficked Burmese migrants to work on the boats in slave-like conditions. If the Burmese migrant died from overwork or illness, they simply tossed him overboard like garbage and the body would wash up on the shore.

In any case, governments and NGOs usually send inspectors to verify that fishing nations do more than just pay lip service to international labour laws.

Yes possibly. But I find it difficult to imagine that there's much difference between the treatment of fishermen in countries that are virtually neighbors, I think this is likely to be a regional and cultural issue combined with the fact that fishing is an out of sight out of mind industry from a labor standpoint, once that boat sets sail it's all down to the nature of the captain. 

[NorthernRyland]

7 hours ago, bermondburi said:

I earn over 200,000 baht a month teaching English. Housing provided free with no bills. Car provided with free fuel. $4000 yearly flight allowance. $5000 yearly completion bonus. Admittedly, for what I do I'm well paid, but why on earth would I go and teach in Thailand for peanuts???

How? where? that's a very good salary for any profession and I didn't know English teachers could ever earn that.

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, bermondburi said:

I earn over 200,000 baht a month teaching English. Housing provided free with no bills. Car provided with free fuel. $4000 yearly flight allowance. $5000 yearly completion bonus. Admittedly, for what I do I'm well paid, but why on earth would I go and teach in Thailand for peanuts??? 

I imagine that, for such a price, you are teaching in Saudi Arabia, or some similar hellhole where no one wants to live...

 

Teaching in Thailand generally doesn't pay much, but at least the environment is enjoyable...and if you teach in one those top private schools where parents, or rather their employers, fork out 350,000 baht per child and per year, the pay is much better...

 

[bermondburi]

2 hours ago, genericptr said:

How? where? that's a very good salary for any profession and I didn't know English teachers could ever earn that.

I'm working for the Saudi Military in a helicopter program. 

[bermondburi]

57 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I imagine that, for such a price, you are teaching in Saudi Arabia, or some similar hellhole where no one wants to live...

 

Teaching in Thailand generally doesn't pay much, but at least the environment is enjoyable...and if you teach in one those top private schools where parents, or rather their employers, fork out 350,000 baht per child and per year, the pay is much better...

 

It's all relative I guess but for me it's fine. Got some good friends here, foreigners and locals alike. I find the people very friendly, a lot more so than Thailand in many ways. And I get to travel every 8 weeks or so. 

 

ATEOTD I'm just trying to provide a decent standard of living for my family and provide for my future. Not everyone's cup of tea but there you go. 

 

You mention decent salaries in Thailand but they are going to be in the minority. In regards to the post I quoted and education in Thailand, there are never going to be hordes of well qualified people queueing up to work in a classroom of 40-50 kids for 30-40k a month. 

[NorthernRyland]

43 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

I'm working for the Saudi Military in a helicopter program.

That's a pretty damn good deal then. To get 80k/year (or higher) in the USA teaching anything I think you need to be a tenured professor or maybe a very senior public school teacher in a high-priced city. I have a friend who teaches english in NYC and he gets 40k and only can work 8 months/year which means he's totally broke. That cost him getting a masters degree (50k debt) and he can't advance until he spends thousands more to get a PhD and even then the market is extremely competitive for professors.

[bermondburi]

1 hour ago, genericptr said:

That's a pretty damn good deal then. To get 80k/year (or higher) in the USA teaching anything I think you need to be a tenured professor or maybe a very senior public school teacher in a high-priced city. I have a friend who teaches english in NYC and he gets 40k and only can work 8 months/year which means he's totally broke. That cost him getting a masters degree (50k debt) and he can't advance until he spends thousands more to get a PhD and even then the market is extremely competitive for professors.

It is a good deal and I'm very fortunate. Bit of a niche thing really but I had some lucky breaks along the way with people I knew getting me in. 

 

For US citizens especially, and to a lesser extent Brits, there are opportunities working for defense contractors that will pay very well. 

 

Highest paying jobs I've heard of were in Afghanistan and they paid a whole lot more than mine, but there were good reasons for that. LOL.