Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[Puwa]

cm108.com published this notice from maharaj, first confirmed case in chiang mai. the patient is quarantined in a special negative-pressure room.

https://www.cm108.com/w/20397/

[pgrahmm]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3939135626127228&id=565225540184937

 

Wuhan video 1-25....

Edited January 31, 2020 by pgrahmm

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

DJT's most viral tweet? 5/31/17... COVFEFE..... Corona Virus F F 

[samuttodd]

https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/01/31/pets-can-carry-wuhan-coronavirus-too-says-expert/

A Chinese epidemiologist warned this week that the novel Wuhan coronavirus is not limited to communication between humans.

Dr. Li Lanjuan of the Chinese National Health Commission made clear that mammals are generally are at risk of passing the virus.

“If pets go out and have contact with an infected person, they have the chance to get infected. By then, pets need to be isolated. In addition to people, we should be careful with other mammals especially pets,” she told China Central Television (CCTV) Wednesday.

Chinese news outlets and the World Health Organization report that pet-to-person transmission remains theoretical as of now. The WHO declared an international emergency on Thursday.

 

 

This makes me wonder if other animals can act as vectors for the illness,   What about birds scavengers?    Crows etc.

 

 

China already put down about 350 million pigs from sickness... 

Edited February 1, 2020 by ubonjoe
removed a dangerous link and replaced with valid link

[WaveHunter]

 

This is a snapshot from Chinese WeChat.  It was posted at the direction of the Chinese Central Government (Chinese Communist Party - CCP) and indicative of their aggressive actions in the last few days to silence scientists, doctors, and journalists who are on the front-lines of this crisis and trying to get the truth out to the public thru social media.

 

Notice the last paragraph...yikes!  The Chinese have what is referred to as the "Rumor Law" that provides a prison sentence for up to 7 years if convicted...and many people are now being arrested on this charge as a result of social media posts that are voicing concerns over how this crisis is being handled by the Central government!

 

It is why almost no non state-sponsored information has been coming out of China in the last few days!  NOT GOOD!!!!

 

Google translation:

 

Emergency announcement:

 

Special times and special measures!

From now on, public security and cyber police will jointly enforce law on all WeChat groups.

 

All of our groups will start to implement the group | regulations, except for the administrator's unified arrangement to issue official announcements

 

And information, anyone is not allowed to post any information and pictures related to the epidemic, spread rumors, repost Misinformation.

 

Hope the volunteers understand and support. We must start with our own group, and resolutely stop the epidemic.

 

The stability of the people's heart is the biggest measure for the party and the government to put people's lives and health first.

 

Hold! Except Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, National Health Commission |"Rumors from any channel.

 

Offenders are transferred to the public security department!

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

By looking at air travel passenger numbers, estimates can be made how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas. The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. 

 

For more details:  http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/#relative-import-risk

[jimgilly]

You can find some good information here from the New England Journal of Medicine.

https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?query=TOC

 

Unfortunately, I don't think people really understand how serious this problem is.  It could go on for months on end and eventually infect much of the entire world's population and unless you live on a deserted island there is little you can do to avoid getting it. 

 

Let's just hope it doesn't become as lethal as SARS was.  If it does ...........

[WaveHunter]

There is SO MUCH misinformation about this virus and so many people who seem completely clueless, it's just unbelievable.  Some of it is actually comical.  The latest Google trends statistics reflect that searches for "corona beer virus" have seen a considerable spike in the recent days.  I think it's safe to say people need to become a little bit better informed LOL!

 

 

Also, another amusing thing I saw online that has got the Chinese government in an outrage is a Danish publication's new version of the Chinese national flag:

 

...And then there is the outraged response to the Danes from Chinese people on WeChat for such an unforgivable insult to their national flag:

       

 

Nice to know the world is full of intelligent,rational and concerned "adults" who are taking this crisis seriously.

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[CGW]

59 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

There is SO MUCH misinformation about this virus and so many people who seem completely clueless, it's just unbelievable. 

Indeed, people are still under the illusion that the media is there to inform, rather than influence!

Next they will be calling for a global "Police" force to monitors all travellers etc, etc ...........

[opalred]

i visited someone in hospital the other day and was surprised to see a lot of the staff not wearing a mask

[Jdiddy]

Sick of hearing about this stupid virus named after a rubbish beer

 

in 6 months it will be totally forgotten and people will be hysterical about whatever is in the spot light

[orang37]

4 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

By looking at air travel passenger numbers, estimates can be made how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas. The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. 

 

For more details:  http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/#relative-import-risk

 

Thanks for this one ! It was worth creating a (free) account on Science/AAAS to access the article cited in the linked to site:  "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena," by Brockman and Helbing.

 

The interactive charts in the "Route Analysis & Effective Distance" section of the article you cite are of particular interest to me since, in a former incarnation, I was involved in computer graphics with a focus on dynamic display of quantitative information.

 

~o:37;

 

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, Jdiddy said:

Sick of hearing about this stupid virus named after a rubbish beer

 

in 6 months it will be totally forgotten and people will be hysterical about whatever is in the spot light

The world needs more intelligent, concerned, and compassionate people like you. ????

 

[jimgilly]

3 hours ago, Jdiddy said:

Sick of hearing about this stupid virus named after a rubbish beer

 

in 6 months it will be totally forgotten and people will be hysterical about whatever is in the spot light

People like you need to find that deserted island where you can make all the ignorant comments you want and no one will hear it.  Lives have already been lost and many more will follow so stop trivializing something that is much more than just a "stupid virus".

[orang37]

16 minutes ago, jimgilly said:

People like you need to find that deserted island where you can make all the ignorant comments you want and no one will hear it.  Lives have already been lost and many more will follow so stop trivializing something that is much more than just a "stupid virus".

 

So, we should interpret all spleen ventilation flaming here as literal ad hominem ?

 

~o:37;

[Logosone]

On 1/31/2020 at 12:53 PM, WaveHunter said:

 

 

 

That is 227,373,675 people infected from nCoV after 20 hops, compared with 178 people infected from Swine Flu!

 

To downplay the seriousness of this 2019 Novel Coronavirus and compare it with Influenza or even SARS is just ridiculous and totally irresponsible!

In recent memory all the serious pandemics of substantial magnitude have all been Influenza pandemics. So therefore it is not only  necessary but perfectly responsible to compare the existing mini pandemic with these major flu pandemics. They are the only point of serious reference that we have, that were seriously studied and where numbers are more or less reliable.

 

Suppose your figure of 227,373,675 were to come true that would result in just over half a million deaths world wide from this virus, which is almost exactly the figure that died in the last H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009. Yes, it sounds bad, but if you recall 2009, the world continued much as before. Half a million deaths in a population of 7 billion is not catastrophic or in any way existentially threatening (unless you are infected yourself). It is what we have seen before and dealt with before.

 

However, this assumes that Cov can sustain the current infection rate over a long term of not months, but a year, the way H1N1 did. Given that this is a flu virus from animals, a mutation of the flu so to speak, that has not had hundreds of years to adapt to humans, it is unlikely that this infection rate will continue for a year. Especially in light of the fact that public places, including in Chiang Mai, are now empty, people are keeping their children at home, wearing masks, washing hands etc.

 

This figure above, btw, of course contradicts the serious academic estimate from the University of Goettingen which would have around 100,000 deaths in the worst case scenario, not 500,000.

 

Let us not forget of the 19 cases in Thailand there are no deaths, seven have already recovered, and the remaining 12 could still do so. Again, with SARS, far more lethal than Cov, only 2 people died in Thailand.

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by Logosone

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/faced-with-existential-threat-to-their-rule-chinese-leaders-decide-to-save-11-cities-from-coronavirus-epidemic-insider_3220421.html

 

Might explain why the ghost cities were built

[AlexRich]

On 1/27/2020 at 3:50 PM, Sheryl said:

 

There have been no bona fide reports of anything remotely of the sort.

 

Rumor mill is in overdrive. Please do not feed it.

 

What has been proven -- and is no surprise at all as usually the case -- is that there are infected people who are asymptomatic and (less common but hardly unknown) it appears they can transmit the virus without having symptoms themselves. 

 

Asymptomatic people are not keeling over dead nor are the overwhelming majority of symptomatic people. Case fatality rate even among the cases serious enough to be identified and hospitalized is under 5% and these are the more severe subset. The true fatality rate is likely a tenth of that since most cases don't get identified as the person has what seems like no more than a cold and does mot seek medical care.

 

Most deaths have been in the elderly and people with weakened immune systems as is true of any flu.

But it’s not just “any flu”, as the death rate is significantly higher than an ordinary flu.

[Logosone]

6 hours ago, AlexRich said:

But it’s not just “any flu”, as the death rate is significantly higher than an ordinary flu.

No, it's not actually.

 

The death rate for corona is only 2% if you take the official figure of people affected which China provides. However, it is extremely unlikely that China has correctly logged every single person who is infected. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University has provided a more realistic estimate of 100,000 people affected, the same number given by a nurse on the ground in Wuhan, approximately.

 

That figure was provided some time ago. Now it is more likely 200,000, since the official figure doubled. 

 

If you take the number of deaths, 304, and calculate it as a percentage of 200,000 you will get a figure that is far below the mortality rate for the ordinary flu.

 

 

[cerox]

I also think the numbers are not correct.

But you have to consider, all the numbers are likely fake which come from China. Not only the infections but also the death rate. We simply do not have a clue.

Thats why I neither like the panic attitude nor the "it is nothing" attitude. Lets wait and see.

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, cerox said:

I also think the numbers are not correct.

But you have to consider, all the numbers are likely fake which come from China. Not only the infections but also the death rate. We simply do not have a clue.

Thats why I neither like the panic attitude nor the "it is nothing" attitude. Lets wait and see.

 

Well, that is exactly what I am doing, considering the numbers from China are not accurate. Not 'fake', since the simpler explanation is just that the vast majority of cases are not yet detected, or hiding on purpose, rather than contact authorities. It is simply very unlikely that China has been able to log ever case of Cov.

 

If you look at this academic's estimate which uses sophisticated computer models he estimates that China has been able to identify 5% of the cases. Using this 5% number of identified cases, we can estimate that the actual number of cases now is around 285,000. 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

To say 'we don't have a clue' is not correct. This is not the first pandemic, and not the first coronavirus outbreak. We have firm, well studied numbers of H1N1 and also SARS, which help us estimate the actual figures here.

[Sheryl]

There will never be a totally accurate number of cases just as there never is for any sort of flu. For a case to be identified

 

(1) the person has to be sick enough to seek medical attention - most probably do not ;

 

(2) the health care provider has to suspect it and take the necessary samples and forward them to a place able to test for the virus. This would have been very rare initially, becoming more common as awareness increases but probably still low outside of China and its immediate neighbors and also low in patients without a clear history of being in China.

 

And then there is a further delay between identification and reporting and then official announcement.

 

Over time, after much investigation (including tracing and testing of contacts of confirmed cases who have little or no symptoms), epidemiologists will get a sense of what percent of causes become severe enough to seek treatment and from that they will be able to estimate -- ONLY estimate -- the total number of infected.

 

It is the total estimated number of infected that is the denominator for the fatality rate. Not the numbers identified/confirmed. 

 

It is only the confirmed cases that are being reported in the media. And reported after they are confirmed which is not the date on which their illness occurred. While the disease is certainly spreading (as was inevitable), the detection is also greatly increasing and that includes retroactive detection i.e. testing of specimens taken in the past from people with viral pneumonias.  So the daily press releases of numbers of cases is not an indication on new infections nor is the date cases are reported in the press an indication of when or how fast it is spreading.

 

As far as can be determined thus far, the disease is not unusually deadly, Fatality seems low, consistent with what is usually true of  influenza  and tending to kill the same people.

 

This could possibly change if/as the virus enters new populations that may lack the cross-immunity those in Asia seem to have, and/or live in places where health services are weak or rates of malnutrition high.

 

 

[WaveHunter]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, it's not actually.

 

The death rate for corona is only 2% if you take the official figure of people affected which China provides. However, it is extremely unlikely that China has correctly logged every single person who is infected. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University has provided a more realistic estimate of 100,000 people affected, the same number given by a nurse on the ground in Wuhan, approximately.

 

That figure was provided some time ago. Now it is more likely 200,000, since the official figure doubled. 

 

If you take the number of deaths, 304, and calculate it as a percentage of 200,000 you will get a figure that is far below the mortality rate for the ordinary flu.

 

 

The actual death rate statistic, at this stage of the outbreak, is actually an unknown number since you can not calculate it accurately until the outbreak has peaked (i.e.: from a historical perspective).  It only serves as a rough gauge of whether deaths are increasing or decreasing over time. 

 

Simply dividing actual deaths to date by the number of total reported cases is NOT a valid equation since it does not account for those new cases for which death will be the end result.

 

The real concerning statistics right now are as follows BUT MOST NOTABLY R-Naught (see end of this post):

 

• 40% increase in confirmed cases daily (it did drop yesterday but too soon to know if this indicates a true exponential break or just an anomaly.
• R-Naught (was considered to be around 2.0 BUT new modeling studies say it may be as high as 4.1!
• Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which was holding at 20%.

If you project he exponential increases in cases and serious cases with no break, you get this

 

 

Of course this is purely hypothetical since the stats could just be an indication of how quickly the Chinese are currently able to produce and test samples.  Still though, if these stats are even close to being valid, you can see how quickly the number of confirmed cases and serious (ICU) cases can grow.

 

In all of this, you have to keep in mind that this is a NEW virus.  Unlike Flu which has been around for a long time, very little is actually know about N-CoV.  There is no effective treatment other than tidal ventilation, neuro blockers to enhance balanced ventilation, and prone positioning. 

 

In other words...No anti-viral drugs or vaccines are expected for months.  Even though NIH is promising that a vaccine is perhaps only 3 months down the line, it will still take a year or longer of animal testing before it can be used on humans. 

 

So, right now everything depends on effective containment, and a serious attitude on the part of all of us to not downplay the potential danger of this virus!

 

People that say, "Oh this is just another virus...we've had them in the past and will have more in the future...nothing to be too concerned about...we'll survive and people won't even remember this in a year or two.  THAT IS PURE NONSENSE!

 

The only reason we survive through such outbreaks is because people DO take them very seriously and take prompt and decisive action to contain the virus!  So far, the Chinese have NOT been doing that too effectively.  While other countries are taking appropriate and effective measures, it still does not mean that they are immune to an outbreak!

 

Consider the Ebola virus from 2014:

As this graph clearly shows, the reported cases and deaths increased exponentially UNTIL containment became effective.  With an R-naught of anything greater than 1 there is absolutely no doubt that an epidemic will spread until containment becomes effective.

 

With an R-naught of 2 or greater, it will spread like wildfire!  If there is any doubt of this, just look at the numbers in China right now!

 

The REAL concerning news is about what the real R-Naught value for n-CoV may actually be!  In simple terms the virus may actually be twice as contagious as previously thought!

 

R-Naught value (R₀₎, for those who don't know, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is.  R₀ tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection. If a disease has an R₀ of 4.0, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 4 other people.

 

Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R₀ value:

• If R₀ is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
• If R₀ equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
• If R₀ is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

 

I'm not trying to be an alarmist, but as of yesterday, evidence is coming out that the R-Naught for 2019-nCoV may actually be closer to 4.1 rather than around 2.0 which is what was previously thought!  In other words, twice as contagious!  

 

It's important to note that this data has not yet been peer-reviewed so it may very well change BUT I think it is far better to know the facts, plan for the worst, and hope for the best...and take this virus VERY seriously!

 

This new virus modeling study coming out of China reports that the Wuhan coronavirus has an Ro of 4.1. That means it's much more contagious than previously feared.

 

If indeed the case, an Ro of 4.1 means there is NO way of stopping this virus from becoming a full-blown GLOBAL pandemic.

 

Again, this study has not yet had time to be peer-reviewed, so the data may change. But going with this new data in this fast-developing situation, it's really time to stop all the nonsense of downplaying this virus, and take it seriously!

 

Here is a link to the report:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Tounge Thaied]

Thailand has an incredible moment in this crisis to show how responsible it is, how deserved it is to be a premier tourist destination. Should Thailand continue to show competence in handling this virus, it will come out in the end of all this able to command an even higher level of respect as a world class travel destination. IMO the numbers look good right now. 19 infected, 5 successfully treated and released, the remainder being successfully treated and no deaths. Well done Thailand, considering Thailand is one of the primary and closest destination for the affected (Chinese). 

[WaveHunter]

I want to be clear, I'm not being Mr. Doom and Gloom.  I believe we will prevail in controlling the outbreak through containment, but it will be the result of people taking this outbreak seriously and not merely putting on a "happy face" claiming that all is OK and everything is under control, because at present, it is not!

 

At this stage of the outbreak, death rate is not even an important or verifiable statistic, and won't really be known until it all can be viewed from a historical perspective. 

 

Far more worrisome is how quickly the medical infrastructure will become overwhelmed by this if containment efforts are not effective (and so far they are proving far from effective!)

 

At the current 40% increase per day in reported cases (which so far is holding), and a Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which has been holding at 20%, there will not be enough ICU beds to accommodate the seriously sick...in less than one month!  THAT IS THE REAL DANGER!

 

If projections for new cases remain exponential and given that the Serious Complication Rate is holding at 20%, here are what the results would be:

Consider that by day 18, there would be over 400,000 patients requiring ICU care.  To put this in perspective, consider the fact that the entire USA only has about 100,000 ICU beds! 

 

Whether this stays only in China or a serious pandemic occurs, it would simply overwhelm the medical infrastructure's ability to accommodate the seriously sick people in far less than a single month!

 

To me, that is a SERIOUS scenario of epic proportions! 

 

I am not saying it WILL happen, but the potential is very real, especially since this is a very contagious virus with a R-Naught of at least 2.0, and possibly as high as 4.1 (according to the latest, though yet peer reviewed virus modeling studies).

 

What this new R-naught number means is there is far more likelihood that this could become a global) pandemic than is presently believed, despite current success at containment in places like the USA.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[orang37]

imho, relevant to this thread: Lancet article Jan. 31: (clickee) Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

 

~o:37;

[samuttodd]

Check this out,  The

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgR18GtO_1Y     @13:13 and 18:50

Basically, An engineered Bug (HIV sequences with the ability to spread like the common cold. )

That’s the story

[Tayaout]

12 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

Check this out,  The

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgR18GtO_1Y     @13:13 and 18:50

Basically, An engineered Bug (HIV sequences with the ability to spread like the common cold. )

That’s the story

It has been debunked multiple time already. They took a chain of 6 amino acid of the virus and put it in a search engine. Out of hundreds of results they nitpicked the VIH match. The published their paper on a server that is used before being peer reviewed. 

[samuttodd]

11 microbiologists mysteriously dead over the span of just five months.  Some of them world leaders in developing weapons-grade biological plagues. Others, the best in figuring out how to stop millions from dying because of biological weapons. Still others, experts in the theory of bioterrorism.
[link to www.theglobeandmail.com (secure)]

[samuttodd]

21 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

It has been debunked multiple time already. They took a chain of 6 amino acid of the virus and put it in a search engine. Out of hundreds of results they nitpicked the VIH match. The published their paper on a server that is used before being peer reviewed. 

Man,   I hope you are right.   Because if not,   then the people that area carriers or actively sick and don't die,   could blossom into HIV  related pathologies.... I think this is legit,   this was not the Work done by the Drs from Wuhan...  Are you certain we are talking about the same thing?     Apparently Patients are responding to the Cocktails that are given to folks with HIV. 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by samuttodd