Popular Post FarFlungFalang Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, BRUFC said: I must admit I hadn't considered the lack of reaction from that quarter. I wonder why the silence? Maybe the military controlled media might have something to do with it like they control the thaivisa news and forums as you can only say what they say you can say!It's called censorship and is on of the things the international community is concerned about. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Traubert Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, BRUFC said: Sorry Mr Tayout, not wishing to deflect from your confident statement, but who else besides our Yinn, identifies as Thai on this forum? Have we been infiltrated? I think we should be told. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Traubert Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BobbyL said: And so it begins. Just like the cases / deaths have shot up in China over recent days, I expect the same to happen here in the next week etc. Recovery rates have too. Climbing towards double the fatality rate. Just saying...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NCC1701A Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today. not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. Took about three days for everyone to forget about it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: First it was one Thai (the taxi driver), now it's four more for a total of 5, and then and then..... And those are just the "official" numbers... You can add P.M Prayuth to that list, ssssshh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammieuk1 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like I have been reading fake news everything appears 100% out of control???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traubert Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said: went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today. not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. Took about three days for everyone to forget about it. Maybe like the more level headed of us they stopped fouling themselves at the age of three and didn't start again when natures pond rippled in their dotage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Traubert said: Recovery rates have too. Climbing towards double the fatality rate. Yes, they should. Over time it will then end up at the mortality ratio. It's at 427/(427+713) = 37.5% right now according to JHU's dashboard. Stats are of course only as good as the data used to calculate them. Once this hits a western nation proper, then we'll see reliable numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said: My observations - mortality rate stable, recovery climbing: What formula did you use? death/recovery divided by confirmed/suspected/something else? Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowofacloud Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, DrTuner said: What formula did you use? death/recovery divided by confirmed/suspected/something else? The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, shadowofacloud said: The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases. Found this might interest you: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbE-UuJYw5V4FkyMZ-LplvUQZlut4oa5Zl3lrSmN_mk/edit?usp=drivesdk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said: The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases. I don't see how that can work. Patient studies so far (on groups with known outcomes) put it around 8%-14%, which is SARS like, which makes sense. Anyway you must use a fixed population all with known outcomes. Some disturbing corroboration from Kan Chen a formal senior scientist at J&J and Harvard trained immunologist in Shanghai: "According to the clinical experiences of a physician at the epicentre of 2019nCoV, it is the late-onset and sudden cytokine storm that kill many patients, not the infection resulted pneumonia. This is how most Spanish flu fatalities died. Edited February 4, 2020 by rabas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, shadowofacloud said: The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases. Ok. That's of course a lagging indicator, takes time to recover or die after the diagnosis. Strange that it is basically constant. Anyhow, here's some indication of how long it takes to resolve one way or another: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ Quote Days from first symptom to death The China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6] I didn't find the recovery time. I would expect more fluctuation in the graphs because of the small sample size, especially in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowofacloud Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tayaout said: Found this might interest you: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbE-UuJYw5V4FkyMZ-LplvUQZlut4oa5Zl3lrSmN_mk/edit?usp=drivesdk Thanks, looks interesting - will analyze in detail later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeCross Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Quote China’s national health commission announced on Tuesday that the national mortality rate of coronavirus is running at 2.1%. In Hubei province, which accounts for 97% of all fatalities, the rate is 3%. The commission said 80% of deaths were of people over the age of 60 and 75% had underlying conditions. *source the guardian everyone under 60 and healthy can go out tonight. the rest take a break okay!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 According to the WHO, the numbers of total confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths in China have both more than doubled in the past four days -- Jan. 30 to Feb. 3. And the number of confirmed cases outside China have almost doubled in that time. WHO status report as of Jan. 30 WHO status report as of Feb. 3 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowofacloud Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: According to the WHO, the numbers of total confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths in China have both more than doubled in the past four days -- Jan. 30 to Feb. 3. And the number of confirmed cases outside China have almost doubled in that time. And that actually is a good thing. The cases almost quadrupled between Jan 26 and Jan 30, so the exponent factor (? sorry, not used to writing about statistics in English) is actually decreasing. If you look at the full picture, it does not look that bleak. Edited February 4, 2020 by shadowofacloud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, DrTuner said: Yes, they should. Over time it will then end up at the mortality ratio. It's at 427/(427+713) = 37.5% right now according to JHU's dashboard. Stats are of course only as good as the data used to calculate them. Once this hits a western nation proper, then we'll see reliable numbers. fyi.... Quote Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the NHC’s Medical Administration Bureau, said that, as of Monday and based on confirmed cases nationwide, the national fatality rate was 2.1 per cent, with the vast majority of deaths in Hubei province. The central Chinese province has lost 414 people, or 97 per cent of the mainland death toll. According to Jiao, the mortality rate in the provincial capital Wuhan has reached 4.9 per cent, with 313 deaths so far. The mortality rate for Hubei is 3.1 per cent, the highest of any province in the country. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-china-death-toll-hits-425-new-cases-hubei-jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post FarFlungFalang Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, NCC1701A said: went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today. not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. Took about three days for everyone to forget about it. Forget about what? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said: The cases almost quadrupled between Jan 26 and Jan 30, so the exponent factor (? sorry, not used to writing about statistics in English) is actually decreasing. Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, dcnx said: It’s going to be a little difficult to blame the Burmese on this, but it’s not over yet. They will allow Chinese per usual until burn season officially kills off the numbers then they will announce strict measures to protect the country. They will be regarded as heroes globally and praised by the WHO and other organizations. I don’t understand the politics of all of this but it angers me greatly. This is the story line of "V for Vendetta" Starring Hugo Weaving and Natalie Portman,by the Wachowski Brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowofacloud Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect. Yes, that's another story. I am trying to avoid making any assumptions, simply looking at available data. The quality of this data is a different story, it's quite possible it is being manipulated. A few questions: How does hitting the limits of diagnostic capabilities work? Not enough diagnostic kits? Not enough people to analyze the samples? And what does constitute of a diagnostic kit? I assume they take blood from a person suspected of infection - what happens then? Does it have to go through a complex extraction process, be analyzed using a spectrometer or similar machine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said: A few questions: How does hitting the limits of diagnostic capabilities work? Not enough diagnostic kits? Not enough people to analyze the samples? And what does constitute of a diagnostic kit? I assume they take blood from a person suspected of infection - what happens then? Does it have to go through a complex extraction process, be analyzed using a spectrometer or similar machine? This is the only article I've found about it, it's in Chinese but Google translates understandably: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xq7jT0ErmFsIXZY5m3xoNQ WHO has published lab guidelines: https://www.who.int/publications-detail/laboratory-testing-for-2019-novel-coronavirus-in-suspected-human-cases-20200117 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowofacloud Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) OK, so it seems it is not super complex, considering the know-how regarding DNA we have today (sorry for the dramatic oversimplification): 1. The genome of the virus was published online on 11th Jan, 2. Biotech companies take this info and manufacture some compounds (proteins, I suppose) that will attach to the viruses genome 3. Once they attach to it some reaction is triggered - color change etc. That's the easy part - but you cannot just grab a random person on the street and test, it must be done in a controlled environment. Extract from the article below: "The more important reason is that there are high thresholds for testing with kits, and related laboratories, instruments and technicians are required."It's not that you can measure it anywhere with this box, no. " A medical staff member said. According to the prescribed procedure, the kit is usually sent to the provincial CDC, and then issued by the provincial CDC. A person in charge of the Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention told this reporter that for a new infectious disease virus, it should be managed in accordance with state-regulated infectious virus type A. To avoid contamination, testing should be done at least in a biosafety-level laboratory, "probably not in most hospitals." In the testing laboratory, there must be negative pressure equipment, the air flow can only enter and cannot go out; the laboratory's cleanliness, ventilation system, disinfection and sterilization have extremely high requirements. If you do not have the conditions to do the test, it is likely that the virus will leak and the laboratory will become a source of pollution."Now it is stipulated that in the environment of secondary protection, personnel protection measures of tertiary protection should be adopted. " Wu Yong said that this requirement is high, which means that only third-tier hospitals can perform relevant tests. "Small hospitals cannot do it." "." There seem to be lots of kits manufactured, but China is quite heavily populated, plus there are supply chain issues and lack of availability of sophisticated testing labs. So it all adds up to create bottlenecks. Edited February 4, 2020 by shadowofacloud 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexRich Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, rabas said: I don't see how that can work. Patient studies so far (on groups with known outcomes) put it around 8%-14%, which is SARS like, which makes sense. Anyway you must use a fixed population all with known outcomes. Some disturbing corroboration from Kan Chen a formal senior scientist at J&J and Harvard trained immunologist in Shanghai: "According to the clinical experiences of a physician at the epicentre of 2019nCoV, it is the late-onset and sudden cytokine storm that kill many patients, not the infection resulted pneumonia. This is how most Spanish flu fatalities died. Ironically it’s not the virus that kills you, it’s your own immune system going into overload that does the damage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said: In the testing laboratory, there must be negative pressure equipment, the air flow can only enter and cannot go out; the laboratory's cleanliness, ventilation system, disinfection and sterilization have extremely high requirements. If you do not have the conditions to do the test, it is likely that the virus will leak and the laboratory will become a source of pollution Interesting. I wonder if the negative pressure facility requirement is part of the reason for the Thai testing backlog. I looked for negative pressure labs and found only two in Thailand, both are dedicated to tuberculosis testing, one is a private company the other is the National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory. I don't see anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DrTuner Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, rabas said: Interesting. I wonder if the negative pressure facility requirement is part of the reason for the Thai testing backlog. I looked for negative pressure labs and found only two in Thailand, both are dedicated to tuberculosis testing, one is a private company the other is the National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory. I don't see anything else. I hit the jackpot while surfing WHO: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/conventional-rt-pcr-followed-by-sequencing-for-detection-of-ncov-rirl-nat-inst-health-t.pdf?sfvrsn=42271c6d_4 Quote This protocol was kindly developed and provided by Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. This document contains RT-PCR protocol for the detection of 2019-nCoV. Somebody apparently has RT-PCR in Thailand. There's no excuse not to do the tests. Found it here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance Quote Thailand National Institute of Health http://nih.dmsc.moph.go.th/function_eng/virology_eng.html Quote Respiratory Virus Section Study, analyze, research and develop laboratory knowledge and technology on respiratory virus. Develop the system and set the standard of respiratory virus analysis. Be a reference laboratory on respiratory virus. Be an information center on respiratory virus. Plan and act according to international acceptant quality system. Develop laboratory quality, provide academic support and technology transfer on respiratory virus to networking laboratories, government and private laboratories. Co-work with or support the work of other relevant units. There you go. And guess who runs the Ministry of Public Health ... https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php The picture is getting crystal clear. Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricTh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) delete Edited February 4, 2020 by EricTh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HeyHeyHey Posted February 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2020 Hua Hin is on the roll ... this virus so far mostly kill 50+ years old This would be devastating as that is probably 8 out of 10 farangs there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricTh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Sooner or later, certain 'paranoid' countries like USA is going to ban Thailand and all countries in East Asia and South East Asia to the list. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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