Why Is The Baht Not Dropping

[Forza2002]

With all the doom and gloom with Tourism, Corona virus, and Export forecasts why has the Baht not lost value? Doesn't make any sense?

 

It was the same back in 2011/12 with all the flooding ... major car production plants shutdown, computer chip plants that supposedly accounted for 30% of the worlds chips closed and the Baht hardly moved. Everybody was expecting it to tank...

[TheAppletons]

It has lost value vis-a-vis the USD, from approx 29.8/1 to approx 31/1 in the last month or so (31.08/1 as I type.)

 

That's over a 3% drop in just over a month.  

[SteveK]

Give it a few more months, it has to drop eventually. Maybe once the elite have finished buying all their foreign currency denominated assets and investments.

[henry2109]

27 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Give it a few more months, it has to drop eventually. Maybe once the elite have finished buying all their foreign currency denominated assets and investments.

If the elite would have bought foreign currency in massive amounts (against selling thai baht) in the past, the thai baht would have dropped - which has not happend. 

 

So your statement does not make much sense.

[AussieBob18]

Thai Govt and China Govt have been pushing up the Baht through many different policies for years - the result is a bloated currency that is massively over valued since 2014 - but that pays for the large military purchases and infrastructure projects that China provides.  Eventually it will fall - and eventually the recession will happen - and when it falls it will fall a lot.

 

[tgw]

1 minute ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit

why would you think that ???

the mind boggles

[losworld]

1 hour ago, henry2109 said:

If the elite would have bought foreign currency in massive amounts (against selling thai baht) in the past, the thai baht would have dropped - which has not happend. 

 

So your statement does not make much sense.

I think he is referring to property not currency trading.

[Logosone]

23 minutes ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit, it did a bit in the days after the election but now, nothing really still hovering around 40

The value of the pound is a barometre of the confidence of intelligent people, investors, in the prospects of a country.

 

If they think a country's economy has bad prospects - that country's currency will fall.

 

If they think it has good prospects, that country's currency will appreciate in value.

 

Quite simply the British have not such great prospects right now. They need to negotiate with the EU over access and they hold rather poor cards. The economy is 80% services, the Italians and Indians produce more now. The British have a mountain of debt. It is curious that the currency is not falling a lot more really.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Logosone

[BritManToo]

19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Quite simply the British have not such great prospects right now. They need to negotiate with the EU over access and they hold rather poor cards. The economy is 80% services, the Italians and Indians produce more now. The British have a mountain of debt. It is curious that the currency is not falling a lot more really.

Over the last 10 years the pound lost 20% against the Thai baht.

Now explain why Canada (-29%), Australia (-30%), and the Swedish (-36%) currencies have lost more than the UK.

And the Euro (-27%), almost as much (I'm surprised the Euro lost that much).

And Vietnam has lost 25% against the Baht in the last 10 years.

Edited February 6, 2020 by BritManToo

[SteveK]

13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The British have a mountain of debt. It is curious that the currency is not falling a lot more really.

London is still the financial capital of Europe. The UK will always attract tourists and international students to their universities.

[madmen]

Zzzzz a month of Chinese flu and the baht should collapse. 

Try looking at foreign reserves 

Ain't going nowhere 

[SteveK]

3 minutes ago, madmen said:

Zzzzz a month of Chinese flu and the baht should collapse. 

Try looking at foreign reserves 

Ain't going nowhere 

Correct. Thailand has a ridiculous amount of foreign reserves, meaning the currency will be stable in the short-term at least. They have more in reserve than Germany, the UK, France, the UAE and even the USA (incredibly). Make your own guesses about why they have done this, but you don't need to be a genius to figure it out.

[Thian]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

Thai Govt and China Govt have been pushing up the Baht through many different policies for years - the result is a bloated currency that is massively over valued since 2014 - but that pays for the large military purchases and infrastructure projects that China provides.  Eventually it will fall - and eventually the recession will happen - and when it falls it will fall a lot.

 

Will the banks fall over from it? And what will happen to the farang who keep 800.000 in the thai bank? 

[Thian]

My guess is that the Chinese are buying the bahts at the moment because they can see their recession/crisis coming now....better be safe than sorry and put their money overseas.

[SteveK]

1 minute ago, Thian said:

And what will happen to the farang who keep 800.000 in the thai bank? 

Nothing.

[Thian]

2 minutes ago, SteveK said:

4 minutes ago, Thian said:

And what will happen to the farang who keep 800.000 in the thai bank? 

Nothing.

Well even in the USA and Europe banks can topple over like some years ago....the government had to rescue them. Many people lost their credit if it was over the guaranteed limit....Better check the limit in thailand as well.

[SteveK]

6 minutes ago, Thian said:

Well even in the USA and Europe banks can topple over like some years ago....the government had to rescue them. Many people lost their credit if it was over the guaranteed limit....Better check the limit in thailand as well.

You are covered for up to 5 million per bank.

 

https://www.bangkokbank.com/en/Personal/Tips-and-Insights/Save-and-Invest/Practical-advice-on-deposit-protection

 

11th of August this year that drops to 1 million per person per bank.

Edited February 6, 2020 by SteveK

[holy cow cm]

I just transferred 1.5 million. I will wait and when it hits 33-34 I will transfer another 3 million. for me it can stay in a USA bank unit then, and when here, if I die my wife knows to take it out immediately day by day by ATM from the several bank accounts. I'm not going anywhere. 

[kingofthemountain]

2 hours ago, Forza2002 said:

Doesn't make any sense?

Welcome in Thailand

[Moonlover]

1 hour ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit, it did a bit in the days after the election but now, nothing really still hovering around 40

Why should you think that? It was the brexit referendum and its consequences that brought it down. Why should the actual event push it up again?

 

In the case of the joyful brexiteers, it's very much a case of 'be careful what you wish for'.

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If you look at Vietnam, it's GDP is way below Thailand's. The UK lost a little less because investor's have already priced in Brexit and all of Britain's economic issues. If you look at the pound, it declined from USD 2.14200 in 2007 to 1.29 today.

1. I'm not American, the price of the pound Vs the USD has no relevance to my life.

2. I came to Thailand in 2009, when I was getting 50bht to 1GBP, 2007 is a fairly random year to pick why not 1997? or 2001?

[DannyCarlton]

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

1. I'm not American, the price of the pound Vs the USD has no relevance to my life.

2. I came to Thailand in 2009, when I was getting 50bht to 1GBP, 2007 is a fairly random year to pick why not 1997? or 2001?

In June 2016 you were still getting 50 baht/GBP. After the referendum it immediately dropped to 45. It has continued to decline since then, partly due to Brexit, partly due to Thai currency manipulation.

[CNXexpat]

Perhaps the trade surplus of Thailand will be a bit lower for a few months but á la longue it will increase again. And this makes a currency strong. 

[worgeordie]

I thought the Baht would drop when the Bank of Thailand lowered the interest rates,

which in normal contries this would happen,nothing it seems to effect Thailand.

regards woorgeordie

[SteveK]

25 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

Why should you think that? It was the brexit referendum and its consequences that brought it down. Why should the actual event push it up again?

Uncertainty pushes down the value of a currency. Now the uncertainty has been lifted somewhat, you should expect the currency to strengthen to a degree.

 

However, the baht seems to keep going from strength to strength despite the current situation. Hence the forex rate with the GBP has not risen as much as it should have.

 

My personal opinion is that the value of baht is being manipulated, you may not agree, but when the country is governed exclusively by super rich (and money-obsessed) people who have their money in baht, it's not much of a surprise.

Edited February 6, 2020 by SteveK

[Moonlover]

19 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Uncertainty pushes down the value of a currency. Now the uncertainty has been lifted somewhat, you should expect the currency to strengthen to a degree.

 

However, the baht seems to keep going from strength to strength despite the current situation. Hence the forex rate with the GBP has not risen as much as it should have.

 

My personal opinion is that the value of baht is being manipulated, you may not agree, but when the country is governed exclusively by super rich (and money-obsessed) people who have their money in baht, it's not much of a surprise.

I can't speak for the Baht but I do not believe that uncertainty has been lifted with regards to the pound. Brexit is still very much uncharted waters and will remain so until Britain's future relationship with the EU and other trading nations becomes clear, And just as you say, uncertainty pushes down markets.

 

There is also that vexing problem has not been mentioned very much just lately. But I'm quite sure that the Irish border is still the elephant in the room.

[Thian]

1 hour ago, SteveK said:

You are covered for up to 5 million per bank.

 

https://www.bangkokbank.com/en/Personal/Tips-and-Insights/Save-and-Invest/Practical-advice-on-deposit-protection

 

11th of August this year that drops to 1 million per person per bank.

That's a very clear sign......

[Roy Baht]

It is. Against the USD. The real question is: Why isn't the GBP rising?

[CNXexpat]

2 hours ago, worgeordie said:

I thought the Baht would drop when the Bank of Thailand lowered the interest rates,

which in normal contries this would happen,nothing it seems to effect Thailand.

regards woorgeordie

You know that they did it again the last days? Only 1% right now.

[CNXexpat]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

It is. Against the USD. The real question is: Why isn't the GBP rising?

Why should it rise? Because the Brexit? You can´t believe that seriously.