1 minute ago, Guderian said:

The tourist arrivals numbers are about as reliable as the virus infection numbers. They are whatever the government wants them to be.

If a Thai get the virus, it is normally too expensive to test them and the illness is caused by Viral pneumonia.  Easy way to have low Corvid19 figures.

2 hours ago, legend49 said:

Amazing this country is all think about is tourism and how much money they can milk from them.

When just a couple of years ago we were being told that Tourism was 'not that important' !

Does TAT post these numbers on the nightly news?  In Bangkok post?   The tourist numbers  are not posted In The news much here. I don't see how they can possibly forecast when this virus will cease to be an issue it may become a seasonal thing maybe the heat and humidity is a problem for transmission  but I dont think so. 

45 minutes ago, outsider said:

The baht. The virus. Whatever the cause, the downturn in the tourism industry is inevitable, in my opinion. Perhaps, during this low-traffic period, the tourism industry - everyone from the powers-that-be to front-liners - can take the opportunity to re-evaluate, re-strategise and re-launch. Ramp up on quality once again, treat tourists the way you'd treat guests in your own homes and not like ATM machines and trash, cut down on the xenophobia, racism, demographic segregation (and discrimination), cheats and scams - in short, erase the Land of Smirks and bring back the real Land of Smiles. I've always talked about a hard reset the tourism industry needs to go through. Maybe this is it. The fact of the matter is this - Thailand has lost its lustre way before the baht shot up and the virus came a-calling. It's up to you guys to emerge from this refreshed and ready to fight to be the place everybody wants to come to, or forever be in the shadow of your former self.

Rigid mindset prevents progress here so don't bet on many changes for the better.

33.8 million is still more than in 2016. Yes, below 2017 (35 million) but maybe the infrastructure wasn't there to handle that many people in the first place.  

 

 

Thai officials and numbers just don't compute. 

Never have, never will.

(Unless it's the folding stuff in Brown paper envelopes).

There is probably a typo in the opening post...the word "to" is missing.

 

It is not "tourism arrivals will go down 6 million" but "...will go down to 6 million".

 

I can't imagine how Thailand could lose only 6 million arrivals this year.

 

If I was living in Europe, I would not go on holidays in South East Asia now...not necessarily by fear of catching the virus, but by fear of finding myself caught in a quarantine because one person in the plane, or the hotel, was tested positive.

 

Thanks but no thanks!

2 hours ago, Ketyo said:

Soon they will realise that the virus doesn't transmit easily in hot countries like Thailand.

Second phase transmission is minimal and will get less as the hot season comes.

It will not get out of control. 

To hit their tourist number targets they need to.....    erm too late. 

Fake News. The World Health Organisation has advised that Coronavirus is spreading in all climates. Songkran should get the ball rolling. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rappler.com/newsbreak/fact-check/251554-novel-coronavirus-will-not-spread-philippines-due-high-temperature-humidity

 

I'm doing a border bounce to Cambodia in a few days time,  my part in keeping tourist numbers inflated!

Wishful thinking on coming up with this number 

Like most of us on here are thinking it's going to be a lot lower

Songkran will no doubt give a true indicator of tourist arrivals 

 

 

 

Something missing from TAT's rosy projections for the second half of the year is that many Chinese are not working or being paid since Lunar New Year. Many businesses are still not up and running at anything close to normal. People are not allowed to travel back from their hometowns to wherever they may work. This is a huge financial hit for these people, so a beach holiday in Pattaya is probably not on the list this year (or probably next year as well).

When things finally do start getting back to normal, they will be so far behind that the opportunity for any holiday is zero. I would not be surprised to see the October holiday cancelled or shortened to catch up. The global supply chain is so dependent on China for parts that getting back to normal will be the most important thing for them to focus on.

Does anyone at TAT have any clue what's going outside their offices?

Less is more, TAT.

Fewer hordes of Chinese, begets more western tourists with more to spend per capita.  And while we’re at it—it wouldn’t hurt to lower the Baht a bit more...

4 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Less is more, TAT.

Fewer hordes of Chinese, begets more western tourists with more to spend per capita.

Your evidence for this? Western tourists don't think about Chinese tourists in Thailand - they think about the tourist scams, the motorcycle accidents and the reports in their hometown newspaper about the number of tourists from their country who die while visiting Thailand

Many of the mega-cynics who live on this board insist that the Thai hospitals simply aren't testing people, and are merely labeling all the countless sick people with something else other than CoVir-19. That may or may not be true, but even if it is true, I can assure you that Thailand would not be the only country doing that very same thing. I personally know and speak to doctors in Japan, and they tell me that they are most certainly not testing every sick person for CoVir-19, even when that person is demonstrating symptoms that could be related to that disease. In fact, they say they have been ordered to NOT waste time and resources testing all sick people. They are still waiting on the wonderful test kits from America, but that aside, it just clogs up the system and wastes time and resources to test everyone who you might just "suspect" could have CoVir-19. These doctors also say that countless millions of us will get/have CoVir-19 in our bodies, but most of us will not get sick, so why test? You can't isolate millions of asymptomatic people or tell that many people to stay home. 

 

If someone is seriously ill (usually ancient people) they test them. Also, of course, they test people who have had known exposure to Chinese tourists and/or known exposure to people who were on the virus ship from hell that was docked here. Basically, people who have any kind of cold or flu symptoms are simply staying home, looking after themselves, and reducing the risk of spreading whatever they have to others. It is obvious that this is what is happening here for two reasons: 1) There are zero coughing, sneezing, runny nose people on the trains or in the stores. 2) Transit passengers and numbers of people on the street are down drastically. 

 

Japan is full of cynical, angry, unhappy foreigners, but man, our counterparts in Thailand or off the scale. If I read Thaivisa daily throughout the year, I would probably end up killing myself, and would have to stop visiting Thailand for extending vacations twice a year, point being that most of us outside of Thailand are not as negative about the place as those who live there, and we are not going to stop coming. Tourist numbers will bounce back and even increase. That is what has been happening again and again. Disease, coups, demonstrations - nobody cares as soon as the immediately threat leaves the news headlines. Thailand is similar to Mexico - no matter how many people, including tourists, end up the victims of crime, including those that result in death, in Mexico, the rest of North America keeps flocking to Mexico in droves, year after year. 

15 hours ago, christophe75 said:

That's the beauty of this virus.

 

Each time.... they have to lower whatever "target" they talk about.

 

And then they feel compelled to "revise" the forecast.

 

And the month after, rince repeat.

 

With the proper lose of face as a bonus, of course.

 

I'm wondering when we will reach the point where TAT... will just stay silent ?

 

Their whole world of pseudo "control" and "numbers" and "savant forecasts" is falling apart.

 

Despite the human tragedy, there is some silver lining in this virus.

 

It's a powerful BS dissolvent.

Some who hold positions of power, often stand on tip-toes, engage in worthless photo ops and wear medals for good housekeeping, while ringing the  handbell of relevance.  When nothing is produced or when there is much needed silence, their tactic is to repeat more of the above

16 hours ago, lujanit said:

Arrivals does not equal tourists

Don't go there!! I have already been trolled by a keyboard tapper by telling the factual truth over this point!!! 5555????????????????

5 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Your evidence for this? Western tourists don't think about Chinese tourists in Thailand - they think about the tourist scams, the motorcycle accidents and the reports in their hometown newspaper about the number of tourists from their country who die while visiting Thailand

Well, I'm a Western tourist, and I most certainly do think a lot about the hordes of Chinese tourists in Thailand, just like I think about them when I contemplate other destinations where similar hordes exist. It is a very off-putting factor that does indeed affect one's level of enjoyment and satisfaction with one's holiday. 

It is not just the epidemic but also other factors (often changing visa requirements, pollution, shopping mall shooting incidents, ladyboy acid incidents, double standard price and more...) are involved loss of tourists coming here. They lost 6 million but still have 33.8 million.But losing 6 million is “not a big deal”, right? I assume everything is “101% is under control”

Thailand wanted to put their eggs in the Chinese basket and drive out farang. Well, be careful what you wish for. The government is a dictatorship and the economy is tanking!!

2 hours ago, fruitman said:

Well Singapore is just as hot and it spreads fast there.

Well actually not so fast. The numbers just don't compare to Italy, Korea and China or Iran. Germany and France have just blown past it. Maybe the ubiquitous use of aircon is responsible for the spread there. Here is what their ministry of health stated: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-turn-off-air-conditioners-and-open-windows-to-reduce-risk-of-being

With TOURIST Numbers DOWN, maybe, just maybe they’ll decide to 
improve their attitude towards EXPATS who live here and keep pouring money into the local economy on a daily basis.

I came here about 30 times over 20 years as a tourist before retiring here.  If I was still a tourist, I wouldn't be coming now, I'd bide my time, see how things develop and maybe come later in the year if things die down.  There's still a good chance of catching this in the UK, but at least there you have the NHS who you could trust to do their best for you without their hands out.

 

I'm not considering moving back - the idea of living on a pension in the UK scares me more than the virus does - but I would not come now.

 

I also don't believe the projections, if you take off the "border bouncers" and business travellers, one million might be high this year.

If <deleted>  was asphalt they could pave all the roads in Asia 

What a bunch of <deleted>

2 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

 

 

If you are an arrogant man who thinks they don't need to take care of themselves and smokes cigarettes or an old coot with pre-existing conditions like CVD, diabetes, COPD and high blood pressure from eating bad food like a pig and not exercising---YOU are at risk of dying from COV-19.

 

Wise decision not to come to Thailand, ya <deleted>. ????

Or Italy or Iran or.......

2 hours ago, justin case said:

you will see a spin, that thailand is contributing to less pollution because of this

 

they will find a way to save face

 

who in their right mind would go travel FOR FUN right now with the risks involved ?

 

I am a "tourist arrival" against my will, 5 times a year because of some stupid visa

Against your will?

Simply stop coming!! Nobody can force you to come to Thailand.

2 hours ago, outsider said:

The baht. The virus. Whatever the cause, the downturn in the tourism industry is inevitable, in my opinion. Perhaps, during this low-traffic period, the tourism industry - everyone from the powers-that-be to front-liners - can take the opportunity to re-evaluate, re-strategise and re-launch. Ramp up on quality once again, treat tourists the way you'd treat guests in your own homes and not like ATM machines and trash, cut down on the xenophobia, racism, demographic segregation (and discrimination), cheats and scams - in short, erase the Land of Smirks and bring back the real Land of Smiles. I've always talked about a hard reset the tourism industry needs to go through. Maybe this is it. The fact of the matter is this - Thailand has lost its lustre way before the baht shot up and the virus came a-calling. It's up to you guys to emerge from this refreshed and ready to fight to be the place everybody wants to come to, or forever be in the shadow of your former self.

Whilst I agree completely they're NOT going to see it as their problem the excuse for the drop in numbers is the virus nothing they are doing is contributing to the fall, in fact before the virus took effect weren't they predicting tourist boom to highest ever level, "nothing we did guvner" once the threat is past all back as ever was.

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

There is probably a typo in the opening post...the word "to" is missing.

 

It is not "tourism arrivals will go down 6 million" but "...will go down to 6 million".

 

I can't imagine how Thailand could lose only 6 million arrivals this year.

 

If I was living in Europe, I would not go on holidays in South East Asia now...not necessarily by fear of catching the virus, but by fear of finding myself caught in a quarantine because one person in the plane, or the hotel, was tested positive.

 

Thanks but no thanks!

If I was living in Europe I would be very,very worried. The potential for infection there has proven to be much higher than any place outside China.

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Less is more, TAT.

Fewer hordes of Chinese, begets more western tourists with more to spend per capita.  And while we’re at it—it wouldn’t hurt to lower the Baht a bit more...

Wishful thinking in my opinion. Don't be surprised if tourism numbers plummet world wide as more countries introduce all sorts of measures to try and contain the spread of the virus. Not so much that people won't want to travel to Thailand but maybe a case of not being allowed to travel anywhere in the shirt to medium term.

Good luck to Europe with a few million from Turkey on their way.

41 minutes ago, Torrens54 said:

With TOURIST Numbers DOWN, maybe, just maybe they’ll decide to 
improve their attitude towards EXPATS who live here and keep pouring money into the local economy on a daily basis.

???? You live with hope in your heart my friend - admirable ???? 

"They" don't care about the "local economy" they care about money going directly into their pockets, the poor folks that rely on a expat spending a few dollars is totally immaterial to them! They have done there utmost to keep the lower end of society in poverty for generations, why should they give a dam now? 

5 hours ago, legend49 said:

Amazing this country is all think about is tourism and how much money they can milk from them.

Considering tourism accounts for about 18-20% of GDP don't you think it's quite important for the economy?

Why do people always make comments like "milking", it's so childish.  No doubt you think tourists shouldn't be charged for stuff or the government should just neglect a massive portion of the economy to make you feel better and put millions of people out of work.