Buying gold bars (or not)

[Brunolem]

Just now, Oxx said:

 

That chart is utter rollocks.  In 1900 the gold price was US$20.67.  In 2018, US$42.22.

There are dozens of charts showing exactly the same pattern.

 

As for gold ar $42.22 in 2018, please let me know in which parallel universe...

[Dazinoz]

17 minutes ago, Oxx said:

 

That chart is utter rollocks.  In 1900 the gold price was US$20.67.  In 2018, US$42.22.

Really? 

[Dazinoz]

16 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

There are dozens of charts showing exactly the same pattern.

 

As for gold ar $42.22 in 2018, please let me know in which parallel universe...

For someone supposedly so up with world finances and is so blind to what is currently happening and post figures of gold prices in 2018 at $42.22, has to be a troll.

 

[taiping]

AUSIRIS sell 99.99% gold bars here made by PAMP in Switzerland. I have 100 gm and 1 Kg bars.

[Neeranam]

3 hours ago, Oxx said:

You're cherry picking your dates.  2000 was very much a low for the gold price.  Let's look over 30 years instead.

 

Over 30 years gold has gone from US$786 to $1701 - up 186%.  The S&P 500 over the same period (on a total return basis) is up 813%.

 

Again, I know which I'd rather invest in.
 

I thought you were cherry picking.

 

I chose the dates I started buying gold, when I got married.

 

BTC has done better than them all.

 

2017, XRP was up 36,000%

 

Notice you missed that, choosing the all time high as your price.

[Neeranam]

My Dow 22,000 in 2/3 days could be wrong. Maybe much lower. Down 1500 already.

[Neeranam]

On 3/9/2020 at 9:03 PM, Neeranam said:

My Dow 22,000 in 2/3 days could be wrong. Maybe much lower. Down 1500 already.

Better lock those windows on the upper floors. Dow under 22,000 now.

[Neeranam]

On 3/9/2020 at 3:30 PM, Oxx said:

Actually, one doesn't need to look over 30 years.  Over 10 years gold is up 29% and the S&P 500 is up 168%.

A lot can change in 4 days. What are the figures now? 

Like I said on Monday, the great depression has started, the Dow would drop below 22k this week and to 15k in a month. It helps you see when not invested in it. 

[Dazinoz]

8 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

A lot can change in 4 days. What are the figures now? 

Like I said on Monday, the great depression has started, the Dow would drop below 22k this week and to 15k in a month. It helps you see when not invested in it. 

Oh Neeranam, you need to buy a pair of the rose coloured glasses many members have on TVF.????

[Susco]

On 3/9/2020 at 9:03 PM, Neeranam said:

My Dow 22,000 in 2/3 days could be wrong. Maybe much lower. Down 1500 already.

Your superior investment in BTC has been doing great though over those same last 5 days. NOT?

 

[Neeranam]

24 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

Oh Neeranam, you need to buy a pair of the rose coloured glasses many members have on TVF.????

This crash was inevitable due to so many reasons. I hope those who are invested in it keep calm and make the right decisions. I know it is easy to make wrong judgments if you don't have a plan. 

Although I hate the guy Buffet, I noticed a few months ago that he had so much money in cash, waiting to do something, so I followed that. I may make a move in the Stock Market in a month or so, although I prefer a bigger gamble in other markets.

[Oxx]

2 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Although I hate the guy Buffet, I noticed a few months ago that he had so much money in cash, waiting to do something, so I followed that.

 

Buffett's high levels of cash are nothing to do with his anticipating a market correction.  He's spoken publicly saying that he's finding it very difficult to find companies to buy which meet his very specific criteria.

 

More generally, Buffett's relative success comes, in part, from his ignoring market timing.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Oxx said:

 

Buffett's high levels of cash are nothing to do with his anticipating a market correction.  He's spoken publicly saying that he's finding it very difficult to find companies to buy which meet his very specific criteria.

 

More generally, Buffett's relative success comes, in part, from his ignoring market timing.

Buffett stays out when the Dow is above 150% of GDP, his favorite ratio...

 

Buffett is going to wait for the capitulation before buying with both hands and fists...but that may still be far in time...there's a long way to go...down...

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

I may make a move in the Stock Market in a month or so, although I prefer a bigger gamble in other markets.

Just follow Bill Bonner's advice and wait for the Dow to cost 5 oz of gold...

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Dazinoz said:

Oh Neeranam, you need to buy a pair of the rose coloured glasses many members have on TVF.????

There are the believers, who follow their emotions, and the observers, who follow the facts...

[mshs]

16 hours ago, Oxx said:

More generally, Buffett's relative success comes, in part, from his ignoring market timing.

Yes, correct but the estrogen media have the plebs convinced that he said "be greedy when others are fearful....

Which came with a huge caveat that the selective-hearing estrogen has, as expected, not heard.

 

After endless repetition (another of estrogen's many gifts), the aggrieved are sold on "undocumented" and perhaps soon "unlicensed pharmacist".

 

 

  

[Oxx]

23 hours ago, Neeranam said:

A lot can change in 4 days. What are the figures now? 

 

Happy to oblige.

 

The current gold price is $49.17/g.  The price on 12 March 2010 was $35.57/g, so over 10 years gold is up 38%.

 

The S&P 500 is currently at 2,711.02.  On 12 March 2010 it closed at 1,149.99, so over 10 years it's up 136%.  It would have to fall more than 1100 points (40%) from here to match the dire performance of gold over this period.  

 

The compound annual growth rate for gold over 10 years has been 3.29%, and that of the S&P, 8.95%.

 

It's beyond me to see why anyone considers gold a worthwhile investment.  Taking inflation into account, it's barely making any money.

[Neeranam]

2 hours ago, Oxx said:

 

Happy to oblige.

 

The current gold price is $49.17/g.  The price on 12 March 2010 was $35.57/g, so over 10 years gold is up 38%.

 

The S&P 500 is currently at 2,711.02.  On 12 March 2010 it closed at 1,149.99, so over 10 years it's up 136%.  It would have to fall more than 1100 points (40%) from here to match the dire performance of gold over this period.  

 

The compound annual growth rate for gold over 10 years has been 3.29%, and that of the S&P, 8.95%.

 

It's beyond me to see why anyone considers gold a worthwhile investment.  Taking inflation into account, it's barely making any money.

lol, I see you waited a day.

 

try again in a month!

[Oxx]

42 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

lol, I see you waited a day.

 

Unfortunately, I have better things to do than instantly to respond to your whims.

 

Do you honestly believe that a day makes any significant difference over 10 years?

 

Only if the S&P had been around the 1700 mark the previous day would your comment make any sense.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Oxx said:

 

Happy to oblige.

 

The current gold price is $49.17/g.  The price on 12 March 2010 was $35.57/g, so over 10 years gold is up 38%.

 

The S&P 500 is currently at 2,711.02.  On 12 March 2010 it closed at 1,149.99, so over 10 years it's up 136%.  It would have to fall more than 1100 points (40%) from here to match the dire performance of gold over this period.  

 

The compound annual growth rate for gold over 10 years has been 3.29%, and that of the S&P, 8.95%.

 

It's beyond me to see why anyone considers gold a worthwhile investment.  Taking inflation into account, it's barely making any money.

Thick, rather than sick, people persist to attach the words "gold" and "investment" together, even after having been told again and again that gold is an insurance!

 

Now, for the S&P going down 1,000 points, just wait...

 

It will take some time for the markets to reach their bottom, especially with the central banks drowning them under liquidity, but they will get there.

 

Just wait for the first quarter stats to be released, by the end of April, and see the markets' reaction.

 

Those who delude themselves with the fantasy that growth will be slower than usual are going to get slapped in the face, hard.

 

Growth, what growth?

 

And don't forget that all (100%) of the market indexes irresistible climb was the result of corporations buying back their own shares (buybacks), something that is not going to happen anymore for a very long time.

 

And just wait for the overindebted shale industry to try to digest oil at $30...

[Neeranam]

On 3/9/2020 at 3:30 PM, Oxx said:

Actually, one doesn't need to look over 30 years.  Over 10 years gold is up 29% and the S&P 500 is up 168%.

How about over 1 year?

 

 

[Oxx]

55 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

How about over 1 year?

 

You really are grabbing at straws.  Investment is nothing to do with what happens over 1 year, 1 month, or 1 day.  It's for the medium to long term.

 

Just give up.  Gold is not an investment.  It's a pretty useless store of value at best.

[Neeranam]

3 minutes ago, Oxx said:

 

You really are grabbing at straws.  Investment is nothing to do with what happens over 1 year, 1 month, or 1 day.  It's for the medium to long term.

 

Just give up.  Gold is not an investment.  It's a pretty useless store of value at best.

It depends your age, I guess.

 

I agree, gold is a good store of value, that did me well in the 10 years I had it.

 

I'm all in on BTC, XRP and Eth now. Sold all my gold. 

 

 

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

 

 

I'm all in on BTC, XRP and Eth now. Sold all my gold. 

 

 

So you are in a world of pain... 

[Cashboy]

On 3/3/2020 at 8:46 PM, DaRoadrunner said:

And just where are you going to keep all this physical gold? (Not that we want to know so we can break in to your place one night). Why not buy a gold ETF online?

An ETF !!

 

Not sure I would trust one of those and what the spread might be in the buy and sell price.

 

In these times I would want to hold the physical, not a piece of paper.

[Cashboy]

On 3/19/2020 at 2:32 PM, Oxx said:

 

You really are grabbing at straws.  Investment is nothing to do with what happens over 1 year, 1 month, or 1 day.  It's for the medium to long term.

 

Just give up.  Gold is not an investment.  It's a pretty useless store of value at best.

I am not so sure if you are correct about a üseless store of value" because:

1) banks (e.g. Swiss banks) are paying negative interest rates.

2) most banks are not solvent; i.e. bankrupt in reality.

[Oxx]

42 minutes ago, Cashboy said:

I am not so sure if you are correct about a üseless store of value" because:

1) banks (e.g. Swiss banks) are paying negative interest rates.

2) most banks are not solvent; i.e. bankrupt in reality.

 

(1) The value of gold can fall far more in a few days than one loses in negative interest rates in a year or decade.  In any case, negative interest rates are (almost?) invariably for commercial borrowers - not for retail customers.  UBS' interest rates are at https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/private/interest-rates.html and not a negative sign to be seen.

 

(2) Of course banks are solvent.  There are stringent rules about how much capital they must maintain.  In the European Union these are defined by the capital adequacy directives CAD1 and CAD2.  The Federal Reserve defines the rules for the United States.  And in any case, bank deposits in most countries are guaranteed by the government within generous limits.  In the UK it's GBP 85,000, in Switzerland  CHF 100,000, in Canada it's CAD 100,000, and in the USA it's USD 250,000.

[Dazinoz]

14 minutes ago, Oxx said:

(1) The value of gold can fall far more in a few days than one loses in negative interest rates in a year or decade.  In any case, negative interest rates are (almost?) invariably for commercial borrowers - not for retail customers.  UBS' interest rates are at https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/private/interest-rates.html and not a negative sign to be seen.

Amazing how you keep going on about how bad gold is. Haven't seen you mention how bad the stock markets have been in the last few weeks.

[Brunolem]

9 minutes ago, Oxx said:

 

(1) The value of gold can fall far more in a few days than one loses in negative interest rates in a year or decade.  In any case, negative interest rates are (almost?) invariably for commercial borrowers - not for retail customers.  UBS' interest rates are at https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/private/interest-rates.html and not a negative sign to be seen.

 

(2) Of course banks are solvent.  There are stringent rules about how much capital they must maintain.  In the European Union these are defined by the capital adequacy directives CAD1 and CAD2.  The Federal Reserve defines the rules for the United States.  And in any case, bank deposits in most countries are guaranteed by the government within generous limits.  In the UK it's GBP 85,000, in Switzerland  CHF 100,000, in Canada it's CAD 100,000, and in the USA it's USD 250,000.

Of course banks are solvent??? 

 

What about Deutsche Bank, the Italian banks and most French big banks? 

 

All zombie banks! 

 

As for the government guarantees, they can work as long as it is about the failure of one bank, but if the system collapses, forget about the guarantees... the FDIC in the US doesn't have the necessary resources, far from it. 

 

Of course, the central banks could always create boatloads of fake money to "save" the banks, but the concerned currencies would depreciate even more... against gold, the eternal measuring stick that all the fake money aficionados hate so much... 

[Cashboy]

7 hours ago, Oxx said:

 

(1) The value of gold can fall far more in a few days than one loses in negative interest rates in a year or decade.  In any case, negative interest rates are (almost?) invariably for commercial borrowers - not for retail customers.  UBS' interest rates are at https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/private/interest-rates.html and not a negative sign to be seen.

 

(2) Of course banks are solvent.  There are stringent rules about how much capital they must maintain.  In the European Union these are defined by the capital adequacy directives CAD1 and CAD2.  The Federal Reserve defines the rules for the United States.  And in any case, bank deposits in most countries are guaranteed by the government within generous limits.  In the UK it's GBP 85,000, in Switzerland  CHF 100,000, in Canada it's CAD 100,000, and in the USA it's USD 250,000.

 

Capital of a bank = Net Assets of a Bank.

If the bank provides a proper provision for bad debts; result is a hit on its Capital resulting in it not being allowed to make more loans so it wouldn't want to do that.

 

Banks Solvent ?

It would be easier to list the banks that are solvent than insolvent in the west (certainly Europe).

 

Bank Deposits are guaranteed by the governments:

You will find that Thailand is stopping its guarantee on bank deposits in August 2020.

 

You might like to recall that Cyprus Banks were going to deduct 10% of the balances in bank accounts but had to change it to 38% of balances of over 100,000 Euros because the EC told them to.