Thai business groups say economy may shrink if virus impact drags on

 

FILE PHOTO: Cars pass a Skytrain (Bangkok Mass Transit System) construction site in Bangkok, Thailand May 13, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The Thai economy might not grow in the first half of 2020, and could even contract over the full year, if the coronavirus epidemic drags for longer than a few months, a group of leading business associations in Thailand said on Wednesday.

 

The associations have again cut their 2020 economic growth forecast to 1.5%-2.0%, from a recent downgrade to 2.0%-2.5%, according to a joint committee of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Bankers' Association, and the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand.

 

The new projection is based on expectations that the virus impact will end by June, after causing there to be no economic growth in the first half, Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the FTI and the joint group committee, told a news conference.

 

"But if the situation drags on all year, the economy will definitely contract," he said.

 

"But we don't think it will last that long because the situation should improve as we enter the summer."

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded just 2.4% in 2019, the weakest in five years.

 

The group, however, expects exports, a key driver of Thai growth, to be flat or possibly fall by as much as 2% this year, Supant said.

 

The group committee is pushing the Thai government to urgently introduce both fiscal and financial measures to reduce expenses and boost liquidity for businesses, he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-04

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quote "

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded just 2.4% in 2019, the weakest in five years.

The group, however, expects exports, a key driver of Thai growth, to be flat or possibly fall by as much as 2% this year, Supant said."

 

That is an interesting little snippet to come across. 2014 or 6 years ago there was a coup.

 

!! I bolded and underlined a few words I thought were important.

18 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

"But we don't think it will last that long because the situation should improve as we enter the summer."

We've entered summer and it's getting worse.By time it starts getting better it will be winter and it will get worse again.And what's even worse I can't turn these bloody annoying video ads off because they've taken away the little off button.

Edited March 4, 20206 yr by FarFlungFalang

All these governments are terrified of the economic consequences....the thought

that they might have to provide for people who cant work has them worried.

Hence all the hand wringing....I hear Singapore may be getting ready to start opening

up the country again...they have told citizens to "prepare for further outbreak".  whatever

that is supposed to mean. They've also instituted some stations where suspect travellers will

have to submit themselves for a swab test or face harsh consequences like being turned away

or losing their immigration status. I suspect may countries will soon move from containment to mitigation phase.

Try... "shattered", "destroyed", "implozed", "nuked", etc.

 

It will describe reality in a much more accurate way...

 

-tourism : gone (disaster for many thai employees, wages gone etc.)

 

-thai airways (and other public white elephants) : gone (they will have to plug the financial hole)

 

-construction : gone (no more stupid chinese and other mafias/speculation to buy inane "shoe box" condos in Bangkok. Snap.

And fear prevents anybody to make big investments.

 

-car industry local and export : gone (same issue : you dont make an investment when you lost your job, or you fear you might loose it, or just the fear to become infected by a freaking virus)

 

-exports agriculture : it might go up, yes

 

etc.

 

So overall... to foresee a "contraction" for 2020... is an understatement.

 

As for the "But we don't think it will last that long because the situation should improve as we enter the summer.", the guy plays Donald Trump... but that won't be enough.

 

Furthermore after the "summer"... the "winter" will come back, etc. What second wave ? Or the virus becomes endemic ?

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

"But we don't think it will last that long because the situation should improve as we enter the summer."

 

You do understand that this is a worldwide problem now...and not just a little inconvenience to Thailand. New hot spots will flare up...it still has India and Africa to go yet...

58 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

Try... "shattered", "destroyed", "implozed", "nuked", etc.

 

It will describe reality in a much more accurate way...

 

-tourism : gone (disaster for many thai employees, wages gone etc.)

 

-thai airways (and other public white elephants) : gone (they will have to plug the financial hole)

 

-construction : gone (no more stupid chinese and other mafias/speculation to buy inane "shoe box" condos in Bangkok. Snap.

And fear prevents anybody to make big investments.

 

-car industry local and export : gone (same issue : you dont make an investment when you lost your job, or you fear you might loose it, or just the fear to become infected by a freaking virus)

 

-exports agriculture : it might go up, yes

 

etc.

 

So overall... to foresee a "contraction" for 2020... is an understatement.

 

As for the "But we don't think it will last that long because the situation should improve as we enter the summer.", the guy plays Donald Trump... but that won't be enough.

 

Furthermore after the "summer"... the "winter" will come back, etc. What second wave ? Or the virus becomes endemic ?

But the Baht will stay strong ...Lol.

12 hours ago, billd766 said:

quote "

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded just 2.4% in 2019, the weakest in five years.

The group, however, expects exports, a key driver of Thai growth, to be flat or possibly fall by as much as 2% this year, Supant said."

 

That is an interesting little snippet to come across. 2014 or 6 years ago there was a coup.

 

!! I bolded and underlined a few words I thought were important.

Spot on. And who has been in charge of the country for the last 5 years?????

 

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The new projection is based on expectations that the virus impact will end by June

Total horse manure. That date is currently when the Uk are starting to predict the virus to get severely worse.

 

I can see a new law on the TAT agenda soon, no western tourists as they do not want to put the Chinese at risk when they return in droves

 

 

Drag on lol? It's just getting started

Drag on lol? It's just getting started

The term "no sh*it sherlock" comes to mind

good time to be a farmer as people have to eat

 

43 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

 

Total horse manure. That date is currently when the Uk are starting to predict the virus to get severely worse.

 

I can see a new law on the TAT agenda soon, no western tourists as they do not want to put the Chinese at risk when they return in droves

 

 

It just shows its all speculation. No one knows. You may as well believe a fortune telling octopus.

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The new projection is based on expectations that the virus impact will end by June,

Very optimistic ... Reality will probably tell a different story .

and the fear of a recession ... Recession ? so what ? there is one to come , that is sure , but if the virus and it's impacts will be gone soon ... I doubt it .

 

14 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

And what's even worse I can't turn these bloody annoying video ads off because they've taken away the little off button.

Ditto... the ad in the btm right corner is very annoying as it covers some of the post area!!!

Remove it please!

Time to get the  fortune teller out lol

"Thai business groups say economy may shrink if virus impact drags on"

 

Wow. Great to see Albert Einstein's progeny lives on 

Umm.  Duh!

Wow! What a brilliant deduction! Must have taken them a long time to figure that one out, lol

"May or Has".

6 hours ago, legend49 said:

Spot on. And who has been in charge of the country for the last 5 years?????

It wasn't me, chief.

4 hours ago, madmitch said:

It just shows its all speculation. No one knows. You may as well believe a fortune telling octopus.

Do you know any good ones? I am looking for some good lottery numbers.

 

My trees have been telling me porkies.

7 hours ago, madmitch said:

It just shows its all speculation. No one knows. You may as well believe a fortune telling octopus.

Don't give them idea's or they will be out in their millions looking for this Octopus !

7 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Ditto... the ad in the btm right corner is very annoying as it covers some of the post area!!!

Remove it please!

Yes, please remove it, NOW !

Tough luck on the businesses. It's nobody's fault, just part of the risk of doing business. You have no right to automatic profits because you are in business, you have to conduct business in such a way to suit the new environment.....it's called evolution. The people who can't change may go to the wall and good riddance. The people who adapt may thrive. There are no guarantees so stop moaning.

9 hours ago, Lingba said:

good time to be a farmer as people have to eat

 

The farmers don't control the market, other forces are at work so don't expect the farmers to reap a bonanza, also there is climate change, see the drought this year. Even if there isn't a drought next year what many don't realize is that many crops (including rice) get stressed if the weather is to warm and there is no respite at night which means lower yield and bad quality.

If the truth be known it already has.

22 hours ago, DLock said:

 

You do understand that this is a worldwide problem now...and not just a little inconvenience to Thailand. New hot spots will flare up...it still has India and Africa to go yet...

India and Africa

What a terrifying thought

Three areas of the economy which will be decimated in the short term:

 

Tourism

Sex industry

Retail industry

 

all other micro industries will be also affected, another month of this with the virus not peaking and this would be a depression, how long it takes to recover, whether it’s a v-shape recovery or an l-shapes recovery, many people will be affected, all thanks to the lying control freaks of the CCP