The thai SET falling 10% today. So they halt the market same Wall Street.

 

 

Someone told me they invest in the stock market because it doesn't crash 20% in a day (like bitcoin). It's because it's rigged and they stop trading or their hearth couldn't handle it! 

Sumeth Damrongchaitham, President of THAI Airways has just resigned today and there are rumours that the Director of Suvarnabhumi has done the same.

 

I guess it's not much fun in the corporate world right now.

1 minute ago, Tayaout said:

Someone told me they invest in the stock market because it doesn't crash 20% in a day (like bitcoin). It's because it's rigged and they stop trading or their hearth couldn't handle it! 

You should tell that someone to get help and you should stop hanging around with him.

Once the euro hit 38, or 37 at least, I am happy again.

All stock exchanges are taking a pummeling, not just Thailand. I'm just trying to estimate where the bottom is, to start buying. There are good value shares being trashed on fear, and some people will make a motza when the market recovers. Not buying any airline stocks, though.

2 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

All stock exchanges are taking a pummeling, not just Thailand. I'm just trying to estimate where the bottom is, to start buying. There are good value shares being trashed on fear, and some people will make a motza when the market recovers. Not buying any airline stocks, though.

But if you are an uber bear then this could presage a decade long depression. So they are are still not cheap. Depends whether your glass is half full or empty. 

 

Well then the baht should also drop 10% in a day..

25 minutes ago, saengd said:

You should tell that someone to get help and you should stop hanging around with him.

So the underlying force for the strong baht is dropping, why isn't the baht following now?

very surprised that is happening here, per Prayut & his gang, in Thailand everything is always under control

30 minutes ago, thedemon said:

Sumeth Damrongchaitham, President of THAI Airways has just resigned today

Really? There may be hope for Thai yet, if they're not careful, they may return to profit in the next ten years!

5 minutes ago, Thian said:

So the underlying force for the strong baht is dropping, why isn't the baht following now?

The SET is not the underlying force for the value of the Baht, the value of the Baht is not dependent on what happens on the SET. An old adage goes, equities up, currencies down, and visa versa. The following may help explain:

 

 

9 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

But if you are an uber bear then this could presage a decade long depression. So they are are still not cheap. Depends whether your glass is half full or empty. 

 

That chart only applies if you were long  at the top. If you bought in anywhere in the bottom range, you did well, and in a short time. Further, if like me, you are someone who buys dividend yielding stocks, you are quite happy to get the high yields during the long wait for capital appreciation.

 

That said, this is a falling knife folks. Plan accordingly.

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

The SET is not the underlying force for the value of the Baht, the value of the Baht is not dependent on what happens on the SET. An old adage goes, equities up, currencies down, and visa versa.

So what should happen before the baht will drop?

Just now, Thian said:

So what should happen before the baht will drop?

Read the link in post 12 above, its not long.

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

The SET is not the underlying force for the value of the Baht, the value of the Baht is not dependent on what happens on the SET. An old adage goes, equities up, currencies down, and visa versa.

The value of the Baht certainly is affected if significant foreign investors exit their stock positions, and sell their THB to move it back to USD or other currencies.

This could be a recession that lasts for a while. At the moment no one knows the effect the extent of Covid-19 will have on the markets. It seems that the oil issue between Saudi Arabia and Russia was another catalyst that started the slide into the bear market. 

8 minutes ago, timendres said:

The value of the Baht certainly is affected if significant foreign investors exit their stock positions, and sell their THB to move it back to USD or other currencies.

Big sigh!!!

 

The value of THB is affected IF hot money in the SET is withdrawn and exchanged for USD (only USD). But BOT pretty much put a halt to that hot money flow some months ago and indeed performance of the the SET itself made overseas investors pull out months back. Do a google search for the newspaper whose name shall not be spoken and see the following:  SET: Foriegn Investors Lead Sell off. 12 Nov 2019

 

Note: sorry but I had to delete the quote because it isnt allowed, the article says the sell off started months ago led by overseas investors.

 

16 minutes ago, Thian said:

So the underlying force for the strong baht is dropping, why isn't the baht following now?

 

Let me take a wild guess.

 

Because the underlying force for Euro - USD and whatever other currency is dropping at the same time and same rate?

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Let me take a wild guess.

 

Because the underlying force for Euro - USD and whatever other currency is dropping at the same time and same rate?

Wildly incorrect, none of those things are happening, separate equities values from currencies.

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

Wildly incorrect, none of those things are happening, separate equities values from currencies.

I would say if you don't understand what the underlying source is for the value of the baht is, and how that underlying source indirect is connected to the value of the stock market, you should not try to sound as if you know it all

19 minutes ago, timendres said:

That chart only applies if you were long  at the top. If you bought in anywhere in the bottom range, you did well, and in a short time. Further, if like me, you are someone who buys dividend yielding stocks, you are quite happy to get the high yields during the long wait for capital appreciation.

 

That said, this is a falling knife folks. Plan accordingly.

My hunch is things right much quicker in this interconnected age and sense a bottom at maybe 50% of the top. When the whole world virtually shuts down and the body bags pile up fear will be total and that period is likely to last for two months once the peak starts to establish. The logic and epidemiological profile of the virus tells us this. Portfolios will be liquidated when the owners are no longer here to manage them. Maybe that will be the time to buy on in. 

All the stock markets are in red. 

Just now, Susco said:

I would say if you don't understand what the underlying source is for the value of the baht is, and how that underlying source indirect is connected to the value of the stock market, you should not try to sound as if you know it all

Perhaps you can explain to us how the trade surplus and the value of the current account is linked to the value of the SET? Here, read this thread and learn something:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1152702-thai-gdp-growth-to-fall-to-08-per-cent-lowest-in-nine-years-tisco/?do=findComment&comment=15147762

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

Perhaps you can explain to us how the trade surplus and the value of the current account is linked to the value of the SET? Here, read this thread and learn something:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1152702-thai-gdp-growth-to-fall-to-08-per-cent-lowest-in-nine-years-tisco/?do=findComment&comment=15147762

Only someone who is so full of himself would quote his own post to explain his ignorance

1 minute ago, Susco said:

Only who is so full of himself would quote his own post to explain his ignorance

There are plenty of other posters in that thread to confirm what is being said, you can read it and learn whilst on my ignore list, come back much later when you're ready to debate the subject sensibly and with some knowledge. Byee.

The old adage still holds,

 

"Time in the market is more important than timing the market."

1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

Someone told me they invest in the stock market because it doesn't crash 20% in a day (like bitcoin). It's because it's rigged and they stop trading or their hearth couldn't handle it! 

Please do not invest one more baht in your life. Are you aware that you just compared virtual cryptocurrency with the stock market? You still do not se they are totally uncomparable, due to it´s gigantically different volatility?
 

45 minutes ago, Thian said:

So the underlying force for the strong baht is dropping, why isn't the baht following now?

It´s not going to follow like you think, and you never see the change the same day. I would estimate that the baht will drop about 1% tomorrow.

Buy shares in weapons manufacturers.

Downturns like this always end up in a shooting war somewhere.

14 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

My hunch is things right much quicker in this interconnected age and sense a bottom at maybe 50% of the top. When the whole world virtually shuts down and the body bags pile up fear will be total and that period is likely to last for two months once the peak starts to establish. The logic and epidemiological profile of the virus tells us this. Portfolios will be liquidated when the owners are no longer here to manage them. Maybe that will be the time to buy on in. 

This will depend on which market you are considering, as well as the underlying economic impact of the pandemic. Studies show that recent US market recoveries are longer and slower compared to decades before, mostly due to slower growth during the recoveries. If the impact of this pandemic is a global recession, that might also cause recovery in any market to be slower. Betting on liquidation to form the bottom, has the flip side of implying fewer buyers to drive the market back up. But you are absolutely correct to point out that total panic is the time to start considering legging back in.